100 Bets to Broke Flat Season

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:40

I think the market may have it wrong with the price of Hillstar here. On all known form he should be close to the 2nd best in this race, and although it is his seasonal reappearance 12/1 without the Fav here looks decent value to beat the rest of the field. In my view he should be about 6-7/1 w/o here.

1 Point win 12/1 Ladbrokes/Coral without Telescope.

longshotvalue

4:45 Chepstow

An old favourite of mine who probably owes me a win has really drooped to a nice mark in this poor enough race. Secret Witness ran a silly race last time out when drifting across the track to rule out any chance. I saw a bit of hope in his first run this year to think that he could win off this type of mark if things went his way and there is a decent possibility of that here. I’ll take the 12/1 on offer. In addition he also has a decent claimer on today.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

7:25 Kilbeggan

This looks a decent Monday race and Moon Dice has been given a chance here by a step up in trip and the addition of a 7lbs claimer on. He ran well up to a point last time out but is probably too slow at this stage for 2 miles on good ground so the extra ½ mile here should help. 25/1 looks enticing and well know our fate before the race as he’ll surly have a few quid on him if he is going to run better here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Newmarket 4:20

Smoothtalkingrascal came alive last time out in the Epson Dash when a fast finishing 6th after a slow start. Up to that he had been pretty poor for a long time. He is off his lowest mark ever here and if he repeats that run here with the extra 3 lbs he has been reduced he won’t be far away. I thought the value would be gone after that run but 16/1 in this lesser race is great value. He is up against a possible Group horse in Double up but I’d be wary of any horse at near evens in these handicaps. There isn’t any w/o fav option at the time of writing.

1 Point Win 16/1 Generally.

ShaneU

9/1 w/o Double up on Ladbrokes

bladespin

ShaneU wrote: »

9/1 w/o Double up on Ladbrokes

6/1 w/o Powers stingy

brassringclub

bladespin wrote: »

6/1 w/o Powers stingy

... so back it with Ladbrokes.

Deco99

brassringclub wrote: »

... so back it with Ladbrokes.

9s gone from there now too

mailburner

this is my biggest cliff horse but as I missed the value ill steer clear

will surely win one this season, hope its today for all who backed

longshotvalue

Same Race

This race has broken up considerably and I think paddy powers w/o fav market looks wrong. Kingsgate Choice which I was looking at this morning but decided against is 22/1 in the standard market and 20/1 in the w/o which looks value given the favourite here is 4/6. The way the market has broken up it looks decent value for this horse to come back to form. He was poor last time in a decent race but broke slowly. He was decent enough on his reappearance and of this mark could well get involved.

1 Point 20/1 w/o FAV Paddy Power

longshotvalue

Feck Big Brother is watching, it literally took 5-6 mins and the whole w/o market has changed for that race..

Still hope a few got on at a decent price

gazza1

aidankkk wrote: »

Same Race

This race has broken up considerably and I think paddy powers w/o fav market looks wrong. Kingsgate Choice which I was looking at this morning but decided against is 22/1 in the standard market and 20/1 in the w/o which looks value given the favourite here is 4/6. The way the market has broken up it looks decent value for this horse to come back to form. He was poor last time in a decent race but broke slowly. He was decent enough on his reappearance and of this mark could well get involved.

1 Point 20/1 w/o FAV Paddy Power

Think they might have kopped it as ive just gone on and hes 20s to win and 11s w/o now. Still good value though

Francie Barrett

aidankkk wrote: »

Same Race

This race has broken up considerably and I think paddy powers w/o fav market looks wrong. Kingsgate Choice which I was looking at this morning but decided against is 22/1 in the standard market and 20/1 in the w/o which looks value given the favourite here is 4/6. The way the market has broken up it looks decent value for this horse to come back to form. He was poor last time in a decent race but broke slowly. He was decent enough on his reappearance and of this mark could well get involved.

1 Point 20/1 w/o FAV Paddy Power

Ugh, talk about hitting the crossbar.

Johnny_Fontane

great should Aidan, didnt see race. How close was it?

darced

This post has been deleted.

longshotvalue

horse points type advised Date Course FP bsp isp Place result adv Profit BSP Profit invested
Sole Power 1 w 8.00 28-Mar-15 Meydan 1 7.84 6.5 w 8 6.84 1
Dont Call Me 0.5 w 66.00 28-Mar-15 Doncaster 15 97.49 41 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Bertiewhittle 1 w 50.00 28-Mar-15 Doncaster 11 75.35 41 l -1 -1 1
Burano 0.5 w 25.00 28-Mar-15 Doncaster 17 28.72 21 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Boots And Spurs 0.5 w 33.00 28-Mar-15 Doncaster 14 36 26 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Jack Dexter 1 w 12.00 28-Mar-15 Doncaster 4 8.25 7 l -1 -1 1
Buthelezi  1 w 21.00 03-Apr-15 Musselburgh 1/11 16.95 17 4.65 w 20 15.95 1
Excellent Guest 0.5 w 60.00 18-Apr-15 Newbury 21/22 49.52 34 9.54 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Pearl Ice 0.5 w 65.00 18-Apr-15 Newbury 14/22 45.07 34 8.65 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Swiss Cross 0.5 w 12.00 22-Apr-15 Epsom Downs 4/9 10.37 9 3.1 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Sennockian Star 0.5 w 13.00 22-Apr-15 Epsom Downs 10/11 13.82 13 4.07 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Emell  1 w 26.00 25-Apr-15 Haydock Park 1/13 32.66 26 7.67 w 25 31.66 1
Arnold Lane 1 w 23.00 25-Apr-15 Ripon 13/16 19.34 17 4.4 l -1 -1 1
Pastoral Player 1 w 12.00 02-May-15 Goodwood 2/12 15 12 5.3 l -1 -1 1
Swiss Cross 0.5 ew 51.00 03-May-15 Newmarket (Rowley) 17/22 91.6 51 13.12 l -1 -1 1
Mubaraza  1 w 15.00 06-May-15 Chester 13/17 30 21 4.9 l -1 -1 1
Burano  1 w 17 09 May 15 Lingfield Park 1/8 14.65 12 3.57 w 16 13.65 1
Rebellious Guest 1 w 26 09 May 15 Ascot 12/12 29.4 21 5.45 l -1 -1 1
Hawkeyethenoo  1 ew 41 09 May 15 Ascot 3/26 33.29 26 6.99 p 9 4.99 2
Cradle Mountain 1 w 21 10 May 15 Leopardstown 4/4 12.13 9 3.3 l -1 -1 1
Sebadee  1 ew 26 11 May 15 Killarney 5/9 30.55 17 4.36 l -2 -2 2
Caspar Netscher 1 w 25 13 May 15 York 4/15 38 26 7.59 l -1 -1 1
Gathering Power 0.5 w 34 13 May 15 York 8/15 40 21 10.11 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Blaine 1 ew 26 13 May 15 York 8/17 21.7 17 5.6 l -2 -2 2
Sir Jack Layden 0.5 w 51 13 May 15 York 15/18 338.63 67 19.19 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Icon Dream 0.5 ew 67 14 May 15 York 6/15 100.04 51 12.5 l -1 -1 1
Sea Lord 1 w 10 15 May 15 Aintree 2/11 10.5 9 3.1 w 9 9 1
Val de Ferbet 1 w 10 16 May 15 Auteuil 2/14 - 21 - l -1 -1 1
Chiberta King 0.5 w 21 16 May 15 Newmarket (Rowley) 6/9 23.08 17 5.72 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Cougar Mountain 0.5 w 26 16 May 15 Newbury 11/16 28.57 26 6.06 l -1 -1 1
Toormore  1 w 10 16 May 15 Newbury 2/16 12.26 11 3.94 l -1 -1 1
Gramercy 1 ew 21 16 May 15 Thirsk 3/12 10.6 10 2.5 p 4 0.5 2
Shipyard 1 w 13 17 May 15 Navan 12/15 9.74 10 3.1 l -1 -1 1
Gramercy  1 w 13 23 May 15 Haydock Park 8/15 25.32 17 3.9 l -1 -1 1
Grumeti  1 w 12 23 May 15 Goodwood 7/11 18.79 13 5.3 l -1 -1 1
Jack Dexter 1 w 19 23 May 15 Haydock Park 2/11 15.09 13 4.1 l -1 -1 1
Suegioo  1 w 17 23 May 15 Haydock Park 4/15 23 17 4.9 l -1 -1 1
Ill De Re 1 ew 21 23 May 15 Haydock Park 15/15 23 17 4.9 l -2 -2 2
Sole Power 2 w 6 23 May 15 Curragh 6/9 5.59 5 1.98 l -2 -2 2
Qualify 0.5 ew 51 24 May 15 Curragh 10/18 100.77 51 15 l -1 -1 1
Al Kazeem 2 w 4.3 24 May 15 Curragh 1/6 3.93 4 1.93 w 6.6 3.86 2
Rebellious Guest 1 w 21 25 May 15 Redcar 8/8 29 21 5.98 l -1 -1 1
Hoof It 0.5 w 26 30 May 15 Newmarket (Rowley) 13/13 32 26 8.4 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Mukmal  1 w 20 30 May 15 Newmarket (Rowley) 1/13 40 26 8.48 w 25 39 1
Sir Jack Layden 0.5 w 51 30 May 15 Newmarket (Rowley) 12/12 78 34 14.81 l -0.5 -0.5 0.5
Chilworth Icon 0.5 ew 41 30 May 15 York 10/20 25.39 21 6.54 l -1 -1 1
Giovanni Canaletto 1 w 17 06 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 4/12 8.06 7 2.4 l -1 -1 1
Chilworth Icon 1 ew 21 03 Jun 15 Ripon 3/10 10.24 9 3.28 p 4 1.28 2
Together Forever 1 w 11 05 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 7/11 12 10 3 l -1 -1 1
Qualify  .5 ew 101 05 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 1/11 116.75 51 8.99 w 62.5 60.87 1
Dance and Dance 1 w 17 05 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 9/13 18.19 17 4.78 l -1 -1 1
Mirsalle  1 ew 41 06 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 16/19 90 34 13.55 l -2 -2 2
Extrasolar  1 w 26 06 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 8/13 41.94 21 7.6 l -1 -1 1
Epicuris  1 w 19 06 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 5/12 25.72 21 6.15 l -1 -1 1
Smoothtalkingrascal  1 ew 34 06 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 6/20 52.1 26 8 l -2 -2 2
Free Zone 1 ew 41 06 Jun 15 Epsom Downs 15/20 140 34 12.12 l -2 -2 2
Bar De Ligne 1 w 34 07 Jun 15 Perth 5/8 30.5 26 5.63 l -1 -1 1
Chiberta King 2 w 15 07 Jun 15 Goodwood 6/11 13.5 11 4.6 l -2 -2 2
Rogue Angel 1 ew 26 08 Jun 15 Roscommon 5/15 23.52 17 6.8 l -2 -2 2.00
Bishops Road 2 w 13 08 Jun 15 Roscommon 6/15 9.9 8 3.54 l -2 -2 2.00
Uno Voice 1.5 ew 26 11 Jun 15 Leopardstown 1/14 21.63 17 5.92 w 27 16.74 1.50
Icon Dream 1 w 15 12 Jun 15 York 8/12 8.78 8 2.9 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Top Notch Tonto 1 w 15 13 Jun 15 York 1/8 9.45 8 2.64 w 11 8.45 1.00
Hawkeythenoo  1 w 17 13 Jun 15 Musselburgh 11/17 17.34 13 3.54 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Kingsgate Choice 1 w 23 13 Jun 15 Musselburgh 17/17 34.36 26 6.46 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Money Team 1 w 21 13 Jun 15 Musselburgh 8/16 9.36 8 2.4 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Highland Colori 1 w 26 13 Jun 15 York 4/17 26.04 17 5.76 l -1 -1.00 1.00
York Glory 1 w 34 14 Jun 15 Doncaster 10/10 30.92 34 10.45 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Stepper Point 1 ew 34 16 Jun 15 Ascot 16/18 26.02 21 6.38 l -2 -2 2.00
Handazan  1 ew 41 16 Jun 15 Ascot 15/19 186.59 41 13.6 l -2 -2 2.00
Royal Irish Huzzar 1 ew 34 16 Jun 15 Ascot 19/19 66.55 34 12.42 l -2 -2 2.00
Toscanini  1 w 17 17 Jun 15 Ascot 5/16 17 15 4.12 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Father Frost 0.5 ew 51 17 Jun 15 Ascot 9/16 120.86 51 19.97 l -1 -1.00 1.00
American Hope 1 ew 26 17 Jun 15 Ascot 6/30 25.36 21 7.65 p 5.25 5.65 2.00
Sirius Prospect 1 ew 51 17 Jun 15 Ascot 18/30 118.14 67 16.76 l -2 -2 2.00
Rotherwick  1 w 26 18 Jun 15 Ascot 5/28 28.61 21 6.87 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Jargon  0.5 ew 101 18 Jun 15 Ascot 25/28 226.36 67 38 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Cape Clear Island 1 w 14 18 Jun 15 Ascot 10/11 16.08 13 4.11 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Simenon  1 w 13 18 Jun 15 Ascot 4/12 27.86 15 4 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Tac De Boistron’s 2 w 17 18 Jun 15 Ascot 12/12 9.62 9 4.5 l -2 -2 2.00
Limato  2 w 7 19 Jun 15 Ascot 2/18 5.71 5.5 2.5 l -2 -2 2.00
Hillstar  1 w 13 20 Jun 15 Ascot 5/7 21 17 8.2 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Educate  1 w 19 20 Jun 15 Ascot 11/13 24 15 3.5 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Ninjago  2 ew 21 20 Jun 15 Ascot 14/25 18.33 15 4.2 l -4.00 -4.00 4.00
Blaine  1 ew 51 20 Jun 15 Ascot 22/25 45.77 34 11.89 l -2 -2 2.00
Gordon Lord Byron 1 w 26 20 Jun 15 Ascot 8/15 32.62 21 7.69 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Caspar Netscher 1 w 33 20 Jun 15 Ascot 7/15 34.77 26 8.77 l -1 -1.00 1.00
Moon Dice 1 ew 26 22 Jun 15 Kilbeggan 6/16 53.42 26 5.9 l -2 -2 2.00
Secret Witness 1 w 13 22 Jun 15 Chepstow 4/10 17 13 4.45 l -1 -1.00 1.00


142.35 128.435 109.5



Here is the updated stats after 90 bets. 10 more to go

142 points advised profit and 128 BSP.

One noticeable factor in these is EW is a pure looser and for ROI it would be better without. That said ill always go for it when there is an extra place in a big Saturday handicap.

Harry Palmr

I take it you'll go again for the next 100 to broke for the rest of the flat season....yes?

longshotvalue

3:45 Newcastle

One look at Swynmor’s run at Galway last year of 4 lbs higher than this, will make his current price of 28/1 seem a tad generous. He was poor since in 2 runs but has surly been readied for this after a long break and a pipe opener a few weeks ago. I’d imagine they might think he has a bit in hand off this mark.

2 Points EW 28/1 5 places Sky/Ladbrokes/Paddypower

3:10 Newcastle

Apostle is a horse I expect to come to life soon enough, and I’d like to get in while the price is decent. He was good towards the end of last year and if he can get back to that form he will be competitive of this mark as he has been before. 25/1 looks worth a small gamble that today is the day he starts to improve

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Irish Derby 6:30

I’ve changed my mind here in that although I prefer Highland Reel to put it up to the favourite, at the prices Giovanni Canaletto is way too big at 12/1. On a re-watch of the Epson Derby he finished a lot better than I remembered and took too long to get going. That would signify that he will be more suited by the Curragh and 12/1 looks a huge price

1 Point win 12/1 Sporting/Betfair/Hills

longshotvalue

Curragh 5:00
Caspian Prince has proven that he can perform of this mark and I’ll give him a pass on his first 2 runs this year after a very good Meyden season and it often takes a couple of runs to get back on form afterwards. He was heavily backed for the Epson Dash and didn’t perform but that gives me a bit of hope that he may be going well at home. He was 2nd in this last year and 25/1 with 5 places looks worth an EW bet.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places 365/Paddy/Sky

longshotvalue

Thirsk 4:30


Surly today is finally the day Rex Imperator takes advantage of his plumetting mark. He has been running well lately probably over a trip that doesnt suit him best and the drop back to 6 here is to his advantage along with an even lower mark. If he settles at all here he should win and 7/2 looks value.

The Favourite look dangerous enough but to give Rex 10lbs looks to be pushing it.


2 Points win 7/2 Generally

dwinkin09

aidankkk wrote: »

Thirsk 4:30


Surly today is finally the day Rex Imperator takes advantage of his plumetting mark. He has been running well lately probably over a trip that doesnt suit him best and the drop back to 6 here is to his advantage along with an even lower mark. If he settles at all here he should win and 7/2 looks value.

The Favourite look dangerous enough but to give Rex 10lbs looks to be pushing it.


2 Points win 7/2 Generally

Cheers for that Aidan 😊

ShaneU

Sweet, won with a free bet too

magicmoves

aidankkk wrote: »

Thirsk 4:30


Surly today is finally the day Rex Imperator takes advantage of his plumetting mark. He has been running well lately probably over a trip that doesnt suit him best and the drop back to 6 here is to his advantage along with an even lower mark. If he settles at all here he should win and 7/2 looks value.

The Favourite look dangerous enough but to give Rex 10lbs looks to be pushing it.


2 Points win 7/2 Generally

Good shout

longshotvalue

Epson 7:25

Looking back through Geological's form reveals that all his good runs at the end of last year have worked out really well; with every horse he was involved in a finish with going up in mark afterwards and performing. He came back here last month and travelled well but ran out of steam which was understandable on his seasonal reappearance and the trip was over 7 furlongs which was probably too far. He is back over 6 furlongs here and if he can repeat his improvement at the end of last year he shouldn’t be far away here. This does look a fairly tough race with a few in it that could come back to form of a good mark, but 12/1 about the selection seems decent value.


1 Point win 12/1 Sky/Hills/Betway

longshotvalue

Tipperary 8:30

My record in these kinds of races is pretty shoddy to say the least but there is a couple in here on very low mark that probably has a race like this in them at some stage. I’m going to go with a trainer and jockey that haven’t had a winner yet this year, but on his last run Cape Explorer might just be about to get into some kind of half decent form, which would be enough to get involved here of this mark. He was a very decent mid 70’s horse on the flat in the uk before being a promising enough Hurdler. He was very lightly raced before moving to his current stable and its fair to say he may not be going to get back to his former mark any time soon. His last run was a step up on a very poor series of runs and off this mark 25lbs below his best with a 10 lbs claimer on he may stand a decent chance in this low level race. If I’m going to have a bet in these low level races they will be min bets.


½ Point EW 25/1 Generally

ShaneU

Balls, just out of the places

longshotvalue

ShaneU wrote: »

Balls, just out of the places

fecking non runners .... 15 ran and only 3 places.:mad: ahh well still..

byronbay2

aidankkk wrote: »

fecking non runners .... 15 ran and only 3 places.:mad: ahh well still..

Would still have got 4 places with the Betpack bookies in that situation!

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:50 Old Newton Cup

This looks a tough race with very little between lots of the participants. In some respects is don’t fancy anything to win but in looking for value Great Hall appeals at a decent price. He had a good seasonal reappearance and if he builds on that run he should get competitive here where he has in fact a decent record in 2 runs here. He is relatively lightly raced for a 5yo and could still have a bit of improvement in him. 16/1 looks a decent price.


1 Point win 16/1 boyles/VC/365/Lads

Sandown 2:35

Baltic Knight sticks out here at a very big price. He has been running well in decent races an looks well worth his mark at the moment. He also has a great record in the few handicaps he has contested with a record of 112 is 3 races. He actually won of 1lb higher than this mark last year and in my mind is no 33/1 shot here. He does have a negative of a poor enough draw but I’m hopeful class will out here and he can get involved in the finish.

1 Point EW 33/1 VC/Coral

longshotvalue

Beverly 3:00

Money Team really caught the eye last time when he ran well without getting the breaks in a much tougher race than this. He was my selection that time and although following up with sprinters can be the quick way to the poorhouse he looks ready to pounce. 10/1 looks a bit of value here, I’m fairly certain he will go off at 7/1 or less.


1 Point win 10/1 Generally