100 Bets to Broke Flat Season

longshotvalue

Ill be reducing my stakes and leaving the sprint handicaps out of it this year, so as not to give away all my NH profit during the flat season.

Doncaster 2:35

Jack Dexter should be favourite for this in my view. He has won and been 3rd in this with a 5lbs penalty last year and has plenty of very decent form on better ground despite his preference for softer. 13/2 with Stan James is too big to ignore.

1 Point win 13/2 Stan James

Doncaster 3:10

I’m going to go with small win bets in these big field handicaps for most of the flat season, and in this I’m going with a couple of outsiders. Boots & Spurs showed well a few times in a light campaign last year and with some decent form fresh he looks worth a small bet at 36 in Betfair. In addition im pretty sure that Burano has a decent run in one of these this year and after a pipe opener lately on the AW he may well outrun his price here.

½ Point win Boots & Spurs 36 Betfair

½ Point win Burano 25/1 Generally

Doncaster 3:45

Bertiewhittle has been a popular bet for a couple of years now without winning but generally running well. He is a forgotton horse today and looks as if the step up in trip will probably suit him. He is down to a mark he is well proven off in these big field handicaps and at 60 on Betfair with a decent record fresh I won’t be missing that. I’m also going with a min bet on Don’t Call me, who has run enough decent races of this and higher mark to justify a small bet at 80 no Betfair.

1 Point win Bertiewhittle 60 Betfair

½ Point win Don’t Call me 80 Betfair

longshotvalue

Meyden 2:30

I’m afraid I can’t resist 8/1 about Sole Power here. This race isn’t as good as last year and the fav look overrated. He has run well here in the past, not as bad as Is generally thought and a repeat of last year’s run may get him very close here.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote: »

Ill be reducing my stakes and leaving the sprint handicaps out of it this year, so as not to give away all my NH profit during the flat season.

Doncaster 2:35

Jack Dexter should be favourite for this in my view. He has won and been 3rd in this with a 5lbs penalty last year and has plenty of very decent form on better ground despite his preference for softer. 13/2 with Stan James is too big to ignore.

1 Point win 13/2 Stan James

Doncaster 3:10

I’m going to go with small win bets in these big field handicaps for most of the flat season, and in this I’m going with a couple of outsiders. Boots & Spurs showed well a few times in a light campaign last year and with some decent form fresh he looks worth a small bet at 36 in Betfair. In addition im pretty sure that Burano has a decent run in one of these this year and after a pipe opener lately on the AW he may well outrun his price here.

½ Point win Boots & Spurs 36 Betfair

½ Point win Burano 25/1 Generally

Doncaster 3:45

Bertiewhittle has been a popular bet for a couple of years now without winning but generally running well. He is a forgotton horse today and looks as if the step up in trip will probably suit him. He is down to a mark he is well proven off in these big field handicaps and at 60 on Betfair with a decent record fresh I won’t be missing that. I’m also going with a min bet on Don’t Call me, who has run enough decent races of this and higher mark to justify a small bet at 80 no Betfair.

1 Point win Bertiewhittle 60 Betfair

½ Point win Don’t Call me 80 Betfair

I was looking at boots n spurs n dont call me. You have concinced me to invest. Followed on bertiewhittle as well.

Sole power is tpo big at 8s. Had backed prior to you posting.

Good luck for this thread.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Meyden 2:30

I’m afraid I can’t resist 8/1 about Sole Power here. This race isn’t as good as last year and the fav look overrated. He has run well here in the past, not as bad as Is generally thought and a repeat of last year’s run may get him very close here.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

You Beauty.... 8/1 of firm ground over 5f :D

Lt J.R. Bell

aidankkk wrote: »

You Beauty.... 8/1 of firm ground over 5f :D

I had tried to convince myself to finally stop backing him blindly, nearly didn't back him at Ascot. Fair due, you and another chap on the other board convinced me to put a couple of quid on SP today. Was encouraged by what fast Eddie said in the press, but, still. Well done.

longshotvalue

2:25 Musselburgh.

In his last flat race Buthelezi was only a length of Hidden Gold trying to give him 9 lbs here in September. That hoses probably a 100 rated animal now and is vying for favouritism in the big stayers race in Lingfield today at odd of 5/2. Buthelezi was also running well until falling in a good 2m chase here again this winter. He looks to me as if he is coming nicely back to form and given his current mark of 88 and his peak rating of over 100 he is dangerous to discard here at a huge looking 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally.

CH3OH

just in case anyone want to follow you.. it is the 14:25

Francie Barrett

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Musselburgh.

In his last flat race Buthelezi was only a length of Hidden Gold trying to give him 9 lbs here in September. That hoses probably a 100 rated animal now and is vying for favouritism in the big stayers race in Lingfield today at odd of 5/2. Buthelezi was also running well until falling in a good 2m chase here again this winter. He looks to me as if he is coming nicely back to form and given his current mark of 88 and his peak rating of over 100 he is dangerous to discard here at a huge looking 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally.

Get the fcuk out of here :eek:

Polo_Mint

Thanks Aidan Woop Woop

madmoose

Unreal again aidan

DANNY2014

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Musselburgh.

In his last flat race Buthelezi was only a length of Hidden Gold trying to give him 9 lbs here in September. That hoses probably a 100 rated animal now and is vying for favouritism in the big stayers race in Lingfield today at odd of 5/2. Buthelezi was also running well until falling in a good 2m chase here again this winter. He looks to me as if he is coming nicely back to form and given his current mark of 88 and his peak rating of over 100 he is dangerous to discard here at a huge looking 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally.

he had it the whole way round he was never bet... Honestly say it's easy to back your tips well done and thanking you sir...

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Musselburgh.

In his last flat race Buthelezi was only a length of Hidden Gold trying to give him 9 lbs here in September. That hoses probably a 100 rated animal now and is vying for favouritism in the big stayers race in Lingfield today at odd of 5/2. Buthelezi was also running well until falling in a good 2m chase here again this winter. He looks to me as if he is coming nicely back to form and given his current mark of 88 and his peak rating of over 100 he is dangerous to discard here at a huge looking 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally.

Boom ya beaut.

gazza1

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Musselburgh.

In his last flat race Buthelezi was only a length of Hidden Gold trying to give him 9 lbs here in September. That hoses probably a 100 rated animal now and is vying for favouritism in the big stayers race in Lingfield today at odd of 5/2. Buthelezi was also running well until falling in a good 2m chase here again this winter. He looks to me as if he is coming nicely back to form and given his current mark of 88 and his peak rating of over 100 he is dangerous to discard here at a huge looking 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally.

Brilliant

unplayable

i missed the bet by 30 seconds on betfair thought i was filled but when i went back to check it didnt go through. what a disaster but a great tip aidan well done.

mr.jingle

Feck! Was watching ATR and only realised this race was off Super stuff again Aidan, plenty of points to start off your flat season already. Hope a good few got on

Polo_Mint

mr.jingle wrote: »

Feck! Was watching ATR and only realised this race was off Super stuff again Aidan, plenty of points to start off your flat season already. Hope a good few got on

Seen this thread this morning and put it on ew just to start

got 14/1 on PP

Aidan. I really do owe you Pints from the last thread and this one

longshotvalue

put this in the wrong tread at first

Newbury 3:25

I’m going to go with a couple of big price min bet darts here. Excellent Guest has a decent record fresh and can win of this mark. Ascot may be his best course but at 60 on Betfair he is value here. Pearl Ice is a gut feeling selection. He is on a workable mark and showed me something last time out after a year off. He is 65

½ Point win Excellent Guest 60 Betfair
½ Point win Pearl Ice 65 Betfair

longshotvalue

Epson 3:55

I’ll be keeping stakes small during the flat season this year but it’s hard to resist a small bet on Sennockian Star in this race. He won this race last year of only 1 lb lower and went on to win again later on last year of another 4lbs higher. We can safely ignore his last bad run as he has multiple times in the past ran poorly before a big improvement. 12/1 is value.

½ Point win 12/1 Generally

Epson 2:10

Swiss Cross has never run a bad race here and off his lowest mark for a long time he’s bound to pop up soon enough so why not here at a half decent 11/1. He is drawn reasonably as well, and as with a lot of these sprints he will need a bit of luck on his side.

½ Point win 11/1 Betvictor & Will Hill

Lt J.R. Bell

aidankkk wrote: »

Epson 3:55

I’ll be keeping stakes small during the flat season this year but it’s hard to resist a small bet on Sennockian Star in this race. He won this race last year of only 1 lb lower and went on to win again later on last year of another 4lbs higher. We can safely ignore his last bad run as he has multiple times in the past ran poorly before a big improvement. 12/1 is value.

½ Point win 12/1 Generally

Epson 2:10

Swiss Cross has never run a bad race here and off his lowest mark for a long time he’s bound to pop up soon enough so why not here at a half decent 11/1. He is drawn reasonably as well, and as with a lot of these sprints he will need a bit of luck on his side.

½ Point win 11/1 Betvictor & Will Hill

Yes, Shennokian Star has course form,(backed him last year)the others bar Fire fighting are just coming back,and front running tactics may suit and yes on a nice weight, but he's out of form and it's going to be good to firm

I'm more interested to see how Christophermarlowe does in the Derby trial. Trap trial but, should make the distance, Frankie is on form too

Lt J.R. Bell

I know the Derby Trial is not a good indication of Derby potential, I know that trial race was weak, but keep an eye in Christophermarlowe this year. He could be anything.

longshotvalue

Ripon 3:25

Arnold Lane looks to have been underestimated after a half decent return. If he should strip fitter here he looks well overpriced at 22/1 on Skybet. He is down to a workable mark after a long time probably too high. He should be winning soon enough.

1 Point win 22/1 Skybet

longshotvalue

Haydock 3:30

Emell has proved a shock at a huge price before and it may be dangerous to let him off here at 25/1. The handicapper has relented somewhat and given his patchy profile it easy enough to ignore the Lincoln run. I think he is worth a risk at 25/1 In case he decided to put It in here.

1 Point win 25/1 Sky/365

hawkhead

Brilliant once again

thesandeman

That'll do. Cheers Aidan.

sdoc13

Well done Aidan your form is continuing on from the NH season.

longshotvalue

Goodwood 2:50

Most of Pastoral Players decent runs over the last few years have been first time out and if he is ever going to repay a bit of faith today is the day. 12/1 isn’t exactly knocking my socks off for huge value but there is still a bit of margin in it, so I’ll go for him today. If he can’t have a decent shout today of this mark with a 7lbs claimer on, he may never.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Lt J.R. Bell

That false rail at Newmarket and new stall position looks nasty, especially with front runners there. If they are hold up horses , they might be screwed, though the wind is crashing into their face

rocky911

aidankkk wrote: »

Goodwood 2:50

Most of Pastoral Players decent runs over the last few years have been first time out and if he is ever going to repay a bit of faith today is the day. 12/1 isn’t exactly knocking my socks off for huge value but there is still a bit of margin in it, so I’ll go for him today. If he can’t have a decent shout today of this mark with a 7lbs claimer on, he may never.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Great run into second to be fair.. def one for the note book, great tippin!

magicmoves

Could have won it

rocky911

magicmoves wrote: »

Could have won it

Think he got a bit hampered looking at it again,.

Lt J.R. Bell

Once again, like Hillstar, Telescope is over rated. Knackers yard. The amount of hype the latter had two years ago,Jeez

Oscars Well.

Lt J.R. Bell wrote: »

Once again, like Hillstar, Telescope is over rated. Knackers yard. The amount of hype the latter had two years ago,Jeez

Ehh how many horses fulfill their potential after missing their entire 3 year old season...?

A rare poor ride from Moore there

sporter1

Thanks aidan

Lt J.R. Bell

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Ehh how many horses fulfill their potential after missing their entire 3 year old season...?

A rare poor ride from Moore there

Entire 3 year old season,? don't think so.he ran a few but not the main ones due to the set back. Perfectly possible a half decent 3 year old can come out and do better as an older horse. I am not as critical about today's race,first time out. Last though, come on... Noble Mission destroyed him twice last year

longshotvalue

Newmarket 3:00

Stakes will be low in these print handicaps this year but I’ll still have to put up a few at huge prices in case of the bomb dropping at some stage.

Swiss Cross looks to be improving again after a decent run last time and is down to his last winning mark. That win has worked out well and shows he is capable of running a big race in a big handicap at some stage soon. 50/1 with 5 places on Bet365 is worth a small gamble.

½ Point EW 50/1 5 places Bet365

longshotvalue

3:10 Chester Cup

This looks a tough race which is to be expected. I’m going to have to with a bit of a no no here in that my selection Mubaraza is drawn wide. In reality that shouldn’t make much of a difference here once he can get some kind of position early. He really was good at the start of last year and showed signs of a return to form on his seasonal reappearance this year as well. He was 4th in this last year of the same mark and I feel he can bridge the gap here with some of those ahead of him a lot higher in the weights. 14/1 looks the best value on offer at the moment.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally.

longshotvalue

3:45 Ascot

I love these big field Ascot Handicaps, and this looks like a typical minefield tomorrow. A couple stick out for me at big prices. Professor is certainly capable of this mark judging by his run last year in the Wokingham of a higher mark. He came back to form last time out when second to Emell and is still 6 lbs lower than that Wokingham run. I thought he would be shorter here that 25/1 so that looks value. Hawkeyethenoo also caught the eye a bit in the same race and he is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. I think he will out run his 40/1 odds.

1 Point EW Professor 25/1 5 places Various
1 Point EW Hawkeyethenoo 40/1 5 places Various

Francie Barrett

aidankkk wrote: »

3:45 Ascot

I love these big field Ascot Handicaps, and this looks like a typical minefield tomorrow. A couple stick out for me at big prices. Professor is certainly capable of this mark judging by his run last year in the Wokingham of a higher mark. He came back to form last time out when second to Emell and is still 6 lbs lower than that Wokingham run. I thought he would be shorter here that 25/1 so that looks value. Hawkeyethenoo also caught the eye a bit in the same race and he is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. I think he will out run his 40/1 odds.

1 Point EW Professor 25/1 5 places Various
1 Point EW Hawkeyethenoo 40/1 5 places Various

Hawkeyethenoo is the one that caught my eye as well.

sdoc13

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Hawkeyethenoo is the one that caught my eye as well.

Mee too think the 40s is huge

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:00

Rebellious Guest has been in good form on the all-weather lately and if he can stay this trip , which has looked likely on a few occasions ,he might outrun his big price here. His 3rd in the Roseberry when staying on over 11 furlongs give him a decent shout here if he can transfer that to turf. He’s worth the risk at a big looking 25/1 from a trainer who likes to have winners here.

1 Point win 25/1 Various

longshotvalue

Lingfield 3:30

Burano was backed last time and although he didn’t finish out his race that well, he is just back down to his winning turf mark and I would be at all surprised if he showed up well here. The slightly softer ground should help. This race looks a weak enough affair.

1 Point win 16/1 Bet365/Sporting/Coral

sdoc13

I see professor a NR

hawkhead

Great stuff again. Amanda Perrett has her string in fine fettle at the minute

razorhead

Excellent stuff again Aidan, well done

ShaneU

aidankkk wrote: »

3:45 Ascot

I love these big field Ascot Handicaps, and this looks like a typical minefield tomorrow. A couple stick out for me at big prices. Professor is certainly capable of this mark judging by his run last year in the Wokingham of a higher mark. He came back to form last time out when second to Emell and is still 6 lbs lower than that Wokingham run. I thought he would be shorter here that 25/1 so that looks value. Hawkeyethenoo also caught the eye a bit in the same race and he is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. I think he will out run his 40/1 odds.

1 Point EW Professor 25/1 5 places Various
1 Point EW Hawkeyethenoo 40/1 5 places Various

Hawkeyethenoo 3rd

tomaussie

ShaneU wrote: »

Hawkeyethenoo 3rd

Was unlucky-ish in running too.

El Canelo

Thanks Aidan had Burano and Hawkeye e/w.

longshotvalue

Leopardstown 3:40

I think there is a bit of underestimating here in the AOB second String Cradle Mountain. Order of St George is the first string but he hasn’t run yet this year which is a complete no no for that stable. Cradle Mountain beat what looks a good yardstick last time out and although he will lose the 7lbs claim on in this race he is no 20/1 shot.

1 Point win 20/1 Various

sdoc13

Super stuff today Aidan. Had a profitable day thanks to you. This thread has kept going where the other one left off.

longshotvalue

Summer Jumps will be in this tread as the other one is finished

Killarney 8:10

Sebadee is one that did me a few favours in the past. He is underestimated here and this trip ground and course are all in his favour. He travelled well in the big Hunter Chase at Punchestown before fading late over too far. He has a good record around here at 25/1 is too big.

1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365

longshotvalue

York 2:10

Indy looks one of the most unexposed in this field and there was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance until he ran out of steam which is probably understandable. His 3yo form is also very good and if he can move on from his seasonal debut here when a bit fitter he can get involved at a big looking 20/1. I’m also going to have a tiny bet at a huge price on Sir Jack Layden . He was a very good 2yo and perhaps suffered for his Meyden trip as a 3yo. He can also improve for his seasonal reappearance here at a big price.

1 Point win Indy 20/1 Various
½ Point win Sir Jack Layden 50/1 Various

York 2:40

Blaine has an excellent course record to say the least with 3 wins around here. He was poor last time but that can be ignored with sprinting as poor runs are regular in these races. A mark of 100 in well within his grasp judging by his runs last year and 25/1 with 5 places looks huge.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Paddy Power

York 3:15

Caspar Netscher has been running well the last year or so at the highest level and on his day is well capable of winning this race. The race terms aren’t the best for him but he looks a good few points too big at 25/1. Also I think Gathering Power may be an improver this year judging by what I saw last year and on her reappearance. I don’t think the ground will be in her favour here but at 33/1 ill have a min bet just in case as she was my original selection and changing minds leads to frustration.

1 Point win Caspar Netscher 25/1 Various
½ Point win Gathering Power 33/1 VArious