Cheltenham 2015 - Day 1 Tuesday 10/03/2015 *MOD WARNING IN OP AND POST #293*

Shanee.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Douvan is 3.15 on Betfair. Be surprised if you dont get 5/2 tomorrow

Hopefully it keeps going and we can smash it up at 11/4 :cool:

Francie Barrett

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=6851924&category=0

BOOKMAKERS were on Monday night facing up to the possibility of an unprecedented £100 million payout if Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power justify favouritism at Cheltenham on Tuesday.

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That was the prediction of bookmaking heavyweight William Hill. The company was among a number of firms to again voice trepidation about the four Willie Mullins-trained and Ruby Walsh-ridden favourites who will form what Ladbrokes are calling “the world’s most popular accumulator bet”.

Frankie Dettori’s Magnificent Seven, which cost the industry in the region of £40m in 1996, is the benchmark by which substantial payouts are measured and William Hill believe Tuesday’s results have the potential to set a new scale.

“It could be one of the worst days in bookmaking history if the Four Horses of the Apocalypse all win and we could be looking at a payout in the region of £100 million,” said William Hill’s Jon Ivan-Duke, who predicted a £17m payout for his firm alone should all four Mullins hotpots prevail.

He added: “A lot of people will be having that accumulator and it could be pretty devastating for the bookmakers.”

Predicting an outcome that could cost the bookies even more, Ivan-Duke said: “Tony McCoy also has a favourite on the card with Pendra and he could easily be the horse punters include in fivefolds so it could be the worst day for bookmakers since Dettori day.”

In the region of 90 per cent of festival best are placed on the day and Ladbrokes expect “hundreds of thousands” of punters to place an identical bet in the hope Walsh wins the four big races on day one.

Ladbrokes spokesman David Williams said: “The Ruby Walsh acca has the potential to do untold damage. It’s going to be the most popular accumulator bet we’ve ever known. If all four horses win we’ll never have known a day like it at Cheltenham. It could run to tens of millions of pounds. We’ll be desperate to see one of them beaten. Anything more than that will be a luxury but we dare not dream.”

Despite sharing those concerns, Paddy Power suggested all would not be lost should the big four justify favouritism.

Power said: “Black Friday two years ago was the worst day at the Cheltenham Festival in the history of the company with four favourites, including Bobs Worth in the Gold Cup, Irish banker Salsify in the Foxhunter and Our Conor at 4-1 all winning, each of them bad results in their own right let alone the multiple mayhem which ensued. But that really could be a drop in the ocean if all of Willie Mullins’ good things oblige on Tuesday.

“Saying that, the festival is a marathon and the other three days will give the bookies plenty of time to recoup the potential losses.”

The four-timer on Monday equated to around a near 22-1 chance at best odds available while the fivefold including Pendra paid a potential 168-1.

gooseygander

Un de sceaux, jezki, and Annie power for a 14/1 treble, worth 5 shekels me thinks.

the groutch

I'd say it could be even more than £100m, with Frankie, Barney Curley, etc. there was little warning, and only regular punters would be involved.

With this there will be a huge amount of ante-post bets, and Cheltenham is quickly catching up with the Grand National for occassional punters.

Throw in the "Ruby Factor", and bloodbath would be the understatement of the year.

jj mac

Hi guys, when looking at the racecard what tells me a horse is in first time headgear. Could be important this week. Cheers and good luck to all for the week.

Limestone1

Sizing John and Jezki for me. Roll on tomorrow.

DDC1990

Clarcam e/w at 18-1 is cracking value.

senorG

Think ladbrokes are doing annie at evens and douvan 3s from 9am..

mohican22

senorG wrote: »

Think ladbrokes are doing annie at evens and douvan 3s from 9am..

To what stake €25?

Abihsot

1.30 L'Ami Serge
2.05 Un de Sceaux
2.40 Ned Stark
3.20 Faugheen

mulbot

supreme novice- Seedling

champion chase-champagne fever

triumph hurdle-Petite Parisienne

gold cup-smad place, .....

BQQ

jj mac wrote: »

Hi guys, when looking at the racecard what tells me a horse is in first time headgear. Could be important this week. Cheers and good luck to all for the week.

first time blinkers would be: b1
first time cheekpieces: p1
first time visor: v1
eyeshields are: e/s
hood is: h
tongue strap is: t

Basically, the letter(s) mean they're wearing it and the number 1 means it's for the first time.


Btw, if you're under the impression this is important, here's a few cold hard facts:
In the last 10 years, those wearing any kind of headgear for the first time returned a collective record of 12-258 (-£30).

Harry Angstrom

Gregk961 wrote: »

Wouldn't back Douvan at 4s to be honest. Might be fighting for favoritism tomorrow morning

I'd back him at 4's. Shaneshill is fourth fav so it just goes to show that Willie Mullins has most bases covered, and I don't think it ever occurred to Ruby that he might be on the wrong one. The Paddy Power offer gives some added insurance.

mulbot

Supreme novice-Seedling
Arkle-Sail by the Sea
H'cap chase-Shangani

(if only)

Gavin "shels"

So far:

Double on UDS and AP, also a treble with Honourable Gent in the 4.15 Sedgefield.

Also on Pendra and most likely Keltus in the last.

unitedrover

I feel that Douvan is over hyped in the Supreme. He hasn't actually done anything yet to warrant him to be so far ahead in the market. Lami Serge on the other hand has won a Grade 1 and I think he will prevail tomorrow.

unitedrover

For anyone who fancies UDS but is worried about the fences, Faller Insurance with PP seems a good idea. 4/9 so you're not going to get rich but if he stays on his feet he will win. If he does drift in the morning his faller insurance odds will drift too.

coopdog85

unitedrover wrote: »

For anyone who fancies UDS but is worried about the fences, Faller Insurance with PP seems a good idea. 4/9 so you're not going to get rich but if he stays on his feet he will win. If he does drift in the morning his faller insurance odds will drift too.

It's also worth noting the fallers insurance price will not drift. If you take 4/9 you're stuck with it.

unitedrover

coopdog85 wrote: »

It's also worth noting the fallers insurance price will not drift. If you take 4/9 you're stuck with it.

I know that. I'm just hoping the bookies take him on in the morning and then will be the time to bet on him. Having said that I'm pretty sure he will get round. None of his rivals are faultless either.

coopdog85

unitedrover wrote: »

I know that. I'm just hoping the bookies take him on in the morning and then will be the time to bet on him. Having said that I'm pretty sure he will get round. None of his rivals are faultless either.

Personally I couldn't back him with stolen money. He's far too buzzy & on edge for Cheltenham in my opinion. I just can't understand people backing these horses at the prices at the festival. Asking for trouble!

rossom

1.30 Cheltenham

Douvan 2/1

Cheltenham is a 27 race marathon so I'd suggest not blowing your load on the first day and Tuesday definitely won't be the day with my most confident selections of the week. In what looks an incredibly weak renewal of the Supreme on paper, for those of you wishing to take up Paddy Power's offer of money back as a free bet on all losers for bets up to €50 if Douvan wins then I wouldn't put anyone off Shaneshill 10/1. Although Douvan is probably priced up a lot on hype he is certainly the most likely winner in my eyes and represents the Mullins/Ricci/Walsh combination that have landed this race for the past 2 years. The French import Douvan has been incredibly impressive on his two Irish starts to date and with Willie Mullins (uncharacteristically) bigging up this Novice as one of the best he's had then it's absolutely no surprise that he finds himself at the head of the market in the Cheltenham curtain raiser. This 5 year old made a scintillating start to his Irish career when sauntering to an effortless 12L victory at Gowran Park last November when beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Sizing John who also runs in this (that Grade 1 victory probably a bit iffy with the 2 Willie Mullins representatives departing early) and, from a form perspective, this was probably the more impressive of Douvan's 2 runs in Ireland to date. Stepped up to Grade 2 company at Punchestown in January, Douvan again dismissed his rivals with consummate ease to win on the bridle and it's clear that he's a seriously talented horse with a serious engine. It's easy enough to cramp that performance given that he beat a lot of stayers (which is completely true) but visually he couldn't have been any more impressive and ultimately you can only beat what's put in front of you. Of the others, Nicky Henderson's L'Ami Serge is definitely the biggest threat from a form perspective having won all 3 British starts impressively in testing conditions and certainly deserves to be in the top 2 in the betting. He's definitely a danger to Douvan but I just think the Mullins horse is that little bit better than him. Looking through the rest of the field, apart from last years Cheltenham bumper runner up and Douvan's stablemate Shaneshill I just don't think anything else in the race has the form needed to win the Supreme Novice and it looks a poor renewal. For all I wouldn't be having the house on him, 2/1 about Douvan is a just backable price for me and hopefully the Mullins/Walsh combination can get the day off to a flyer on what could be a red letter day for the yard with 4 strong favourites on the day.

2.05 Cheltenham

Smashing 9/1 without UDS

I think virtually everyone would agree that if Un De Sceaux jumps around and doesn't lose his mind in the preliminaries then he could turn this race into a procession but given his helter-skelter and perhaps even deranged style of just going as fast as possible from the front I just couldn't be a player at odds on. As I'm not a backer of UDS and am fairly certain he'll win, I definitely think the play in this contest is to back Henry De Bromhead's Smashing without the favourite each way at 9/1. Having shown some good form for Willie Mullins over hurdles last year and having run a blinder when 4th in last years Coral Cup giving him good festival form in the book, owners Ann and Alan Potts moved Smashing to the Henry De Bromhead yard for the start of his chasing career and I think he's taken very well to the discipline to date. Having finished 3rd behind two leading RSA hopes in Don Poli and Wounded Warrior on his chasing debut, Smashing came up against Un De Sceaux on his 2nd start and although absolutely no match for him that day I was actually impressed with the resolution he showed in trying to close the gap behind the runaway train who could well be end up being the most visually impressive winner this week. On the back of that fine effort, Smashing absolutely trounced a decent enough horse in Upsie by a country mile on his final start to win his first start over fences and I think he's still an improving animal at just 6 years old. With UDS in the field, this race will surely be run at a break neck speed given that UDS will run as if being chased by the hounds of hell and it definitely seems advantageous to me that Smashing can stay further than 2 miles as this could be a real test for those in behind. With hurdling form at the Festival to boot, I think the 9/1 available for Smashing without UDS looks a great each way bet and is certainly what I'll be doing in this contest.

2.40 Cheltenham

The Druids Nephew 9/1

Off a mark of 146, there's no doubt in my mind that The Druids Nephew is well enough handicapped to win this race but he's got to improve his jumping to do so. Formerly with Andy Turnell, The Druids Nephew joined the excellent Neil Mulholland stable at the start of this season and he made the perfect start for his new yard when running out an impressive and easy winner at Huntingdon off a mark of 132 back in October despite jumping left handed throughout the contest. Raised 9lb for that effort to a mark of 141, The Druids Nephew ran an absolutely blinder at Cheltenham on his next start when bumping into a well handicapped horse in the shape of Sam Winner with the front 2 pulling 25L clear of the remainder of the field. Over an extended 3m3f, The Druids Nephew didn't always convince with his jumping in the contest but was still travelling very well in the leading quintet approaching 4 out under today's jockey Barry Geraghty. Although making up late ground on dour stayer Sam Winner in the closing stages to be beaten less than 2 lengths, he never looked like ever reaching the winner but he certainly lost little in defeat that day. Sam Winner has since gone on to win a Listed Chase at Aintree and finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Lexus at Leopardstown and will line up as an outsider in this years Gold Cup and it was another excellent performance. The Druids Nephew's next start came in the ultra competitive Hennessey at Newbury back in November and although he finished up being a well beaten 7th in the end I thought his run was way better than the bare result and was very eye catching.

Having been held up towards the rear of the field by Davy Russell, The Druids Nephew made an atrocious error early in the race at the 6th fence which saw him drop to last and that mistake would have definitely knocked the wind right out of him. For a lot of horses that error would have virtually ended their participation then and there but, having been given time to recover, The Druids Nephew was sent widest of all by Russell as he made up an awful lot of ground through the whole field and he appeared to be travelling very well as he got himself right into the thick of the action. Jumping the 4th last, The Druids Nephew was probably disputing 2nd but the early mistake was soon taking its toll as he looked held in 4th when blundering 2 out as he eventually faded to be a well beaten 7th. That bare form certainly doesn't do the performance any justice and The Druids Nephew struck me as a very classy animal to be able to overcome his early bad blunder to even get remotely involved in what is one of the most competitive handicaps for staying chasers around. Having had a spin over hurdles in a Grade 2 back in January which should have him spot on for this, there's no doubt in my mind that he's well capable of winning off his new 5lb higher mark of 146 and if taking a horse who was placed in a top class Group 1 out of the equation when looking at his Cheltenham 2nd than a 5lb rise for beating the rest of the field by 25L looks very lenient. The superb Barry Geraghty gets back in the saddle today having being booked by Mulholland a long time ago and I'm sure the yard have been working tirelessly to try and improve his jumping as it could become a big issue in a race of this nature. If they've done that and he jumps largely error free I think this 8 year old could take quite a lot of beating and the 9/1 on offer with Betvictor paying 5 places makes it look a great each way bet. Of the others, I will be having a saver on What A Warrior 33/1 who looks very overpriced if excusing his effort in the Hennessey when running on unsuitably soft ground and the form of his win 2 starts back off a 7lb lower mark looks strong with the runner up Black Thunder winning a Listed Contest and the 3rd home Merry King finishing in that same position in the Hennessey.

3.20 Cheltenham

Faugheen 5/4

For all it seems very clear that the sensible bet in this contest is to back The New One each way at 4/1 as it's very hard to see him out of the first 3, I just don't think he'll win as Faugheen seems like a complete and utter freak of nature. Unbeaten and completely untroubled in his career to date, Faugheen comes into this contest with a massive reputation given the complete and utter destruction he has shown in every start to date and absolutely nothing has touched him to date. It's probably true that he hasn't beaten any top class horse yet but the eye doesn't lie sometimes and I think he can show just how special he is today. The New One and reigning champion Jezki rate as the main opposition but I think The New One will get outpaced before staying on up the hill all too late whilst Jezki has been beaten 3 times this year by Hurricane Fly in Ireland and for all he'll definitely improve returned to better ground at Cheltenham I think Faugheen is a class above what he faced in last years contest. Cheltenham will absolutely erupt if 11 year old Hurricane Fly can reel back the years and win a 3rd Champion Hurdle and for all he's won all 3 starts this year in Grade 1s, the world record holder for Grade 1s looks like he needs cut underfoot to be most effective these days and I've always felt Cheltenham wasn't a track that always played to his strengths. For all I'd love for him to win I just don't see it happening. Although this is a world above what Faugheen has faced thus far in his career, I think he'll take the step up to the premier 2 mile contest in his stride and run out an impressive winner on what could be a 3rd success for the yard on the day.

4.00 Cheltenham

Annie Power 4/6

I wouldn't recommend ploughing into Annie Power at odds on for all I think she'll prove way too good for her rivals purely as she doesn't come here with an ideal preparation. Although the yard won this the last 6 years with Quevega who came here without a run, that wasn't the plan with Annie Power who had an injury interrupt her season and I'm just not willing to back her at odds on given this hasn't been the preparation they wanted to give her originally. With her only loss in 12 career starts coming when 2nd in last years World Hurdle and rated at least 13lb higher than anything else in the field, you'd suspect if anywhere near 100% fit she'll just prove far too strong for this lot and, as such, I'll be quite happy to sit back and enjoy the race and let her win.

4.40 Cheltenham

Sego Success 11/2

I felt in the Champion Hurdle that The New One was the sensible bet each way as he was highly likely to be in the top 3 but I didn't really see him winning but in this case I see it very hard to see Sego Success out of the places but give him a very good chance of winning. Representing last years winning trainer Alan King, the unexposed Sego Success certainly wasn't the best out of these over hurdles but I've been impressed with his last 2 wins over fences and this stout staying chaser looks to have very strong form in the book. After a moderate chase debut, Sego Success put in a very stout staying performance when beating subsequent Skybet Handicap Chase winner (off 139) and RSA Chase entrant If In Doubt at Wetherby over 25f in November and again put in an authoritative staying performance to beat a decent enough field when winning a Listed contest over an extended 3m at Warwick back in January and he certainly comes into this contest as a staying chaser on the up and I certainly think the booking of Sam Waley-Cohen is a positive one. The most obvious looking danger has to be last years impressive Albert Bartlett winner and favourite Very Wood who got his chasing career back on track after 2 pulled up efforts and with Cheltenham winning form in the book he certainly rates as a big, big danger and I'll definitely be having a small bit on the reverse forecast. Of the others, Michael Hourigan's The Job Is Right would have finished a fine 2nd behind Gold Cup hopeful Djakadam in the Theyestes off a mark of 130 had he not fallen at the last and given that he looks like he'd stay all day I can see him reaching the frame also and I've included those 3 in a few reverse tricasts as well. For all Sego Success is what I'll be playing in this, I wouldn't put anyone off either Very Wood or The Job Is Right in what looks a good renewal of the 4 miler but hopefully Sego Success can come out on top.

5.15 Cheltenham

Generous Ransom 10/1

This looks like a very hard handicap to solve and originally I thought Rum And Butter 33/1 was interesting on his form last summer but he needs to bounce back in a big way and I've just had a very small bet bet on him. My main bet will be on Nick Gifford's improving Generous Ransom who was impressive on his last start here over half a furlong further and I don't think an 8lb rise looks too excessive. Having ran ok over 2 miles in a decent Beginners Chase on his 2nd start over fences (slipped up on chase debut), he won from a subsequent winner off a mark of 123 at Sandown in testing conditions and then finished behind 2 of today's rivals at Kempton in Stellar Notion and Knock House off a mark of 126 but that race wasn't run to suit and he was staying on well at the finish. Upped a further 2lb for that run, Generous Ransom's last start came here towards the end of January when I thought he was extremely impressive winning whilst wearing first time cheekpieces and I thought he was a good bit more value than the neck margin suggested. Settled just in behind the leaders, Generous Ransom travelled well throughout the contest and took up the running at 2 out. Having been about 5L clear approaching the last he made a mistake and he idled badly towards the finish as he just about held on from the fast finishing Astigos. In addition to reversing previous form with Stellar Notion who won at Kempton, the race looks strong form with the 4th home Caroles Destrier winning impressively in a Listed Handicap at Ascot subsequently off 1lb lower and I think an 8lb rise still leaves this improving 7 year old on a good mark. With just 5lb separating the entire field, it's very clear that this is an ultra competitive race but I think Generous Ransom has got a very good chance and hopefully he can land the spoils to round off day 1.

dickenson famous5

thanks rossom much appreciated

handsfree2

Tell us more 16
Josses hill 12
Barakilla 10
Jezki 5
lunique without the fav
Thunder and rose's 18
Generous ransom 10

RobertKK

1.30 Douvan
2.05 Un De Sceaux
2.40 Gallant Oscar
3.20 Faugheen
4.00 Annie Power
4.40 Very Wood

Couldn't decide on the last race so not betting on it.

JohnDaniels

senorG wrote: »

Think ladbrokes are doing annie at evens and douvan 3s from 9am..

Anyone know the max stake on these?

asteroids over berlin

€2 Lucky 31 e/w

1:30 Seedling 16/1
2:40 Ned Stark 8/1
4:00 Bit of a puzzle 20/1
4:40 Vivaldi colognes 16/1
5:15 Generous ransom 8/1

naughto

1.30 L'Ami Serge
2.05 smashing
Will up this post as i do the others ones
Barry Geraghty on at the races at 10

senorG

JohnDaniels wrote: »

Anyone know the max stake on these?

it says £100 in racing post..

JohnDaniels

senorG wrote: »

it says £100 in racing post..

Fair play to them. Managed to 100 on Annie Power at evens.

sdoc13

JohnDaniels wrote: »

Fair play to them. Managed to 100 on Annie Power at evens.

Fair Play Laddies.

Best price the big 4. 36/1 the fourtimer with them.

I didnt think they had it in them.