Cheltenham 2015 - Day 1 Tuesday 10/03/2015 *MOD WARNING IN OP AND POST #293*

JP Liz V1

1.30 - Douvan


2.40 - Mendip Express


4.00 - Polly Peachum


5.15 - Stellar Notion

MOD NOTE

Don't boast about your bets you never told us about beforehand. It's incredibly frustrating.

That's a warning to everyone. Next time someone's aftertiming they'll find themselves red-carded or banned if they're multiple offenders.

Last warning.

Backstreet Moyes

1.30 Tell us More
2.05 Un De Sceaux
2.40 Ned Stark
3.20 Faugheen
4.00 Annie Power
4.40 Very Wood
5.15 Keltus

Trouble in P

1.30 - Douvan
2.05 - Un de Sceaux
2.40 - ?
3.20 - Faugheen
4.00 - Annie Power
4.40 - The Job Is Right
5.15 - Knock House

barney4001

having read all the comments made about horses and form from latest runnings,i think tomorrow will be a very big day for favourite backers and i can easily envisage all 7 of the market leaders going in,has it ever been done before on the opening day before, or on any day of this meeting

kalinisi

shaneshill e/w
clarcam e/w
faugheen mortgage
glens melody e/w

the groutch

barney4001 wrote: »

having read all the comments made about horses and form from latest runnings,i think tomorrow will be a very big day for favourite backers and i can easily envisage all 7 of the market leaders going in,has it ever been done before on the opening day before, or on any day of this meeting

in 2013 MTOY was the only one of the Big Four to get beat on day 1.
iirc, there was 4 winning favorites on Gold Cup day in 2003.

because of the large fields, especially in the handicaps, you'll never have every favorite win on one day.

Arctic89

1.30 Jollyallan
2.05 Un de Sceaux
3.20 Hurricane Fly
4.00 Annie Power

andyman

Mad scenes on PP just now, Douvan 2/1 and Jezki 5/1.

The New One can be got for 5/1 in places now too

Rock Lesnar

Shaneshill ew
Clarcam without the favourite
Jezki ew
Glens Melody ew

Very wood is my Nap, really fancy it.

Gregk961

andyman wrote: »

Mad scenes on PP just now, Douvan 2/1 and Jezki 5/1.

The New One can be got for 5/1 in places now too

Wouldn't back Douvan at 4s to be honest. Might be fighting for favoritism tomorrow morning

maximus15

13.30 - Douvan
14.05 - Clarcam
14.40 - Gallant Oscar
15.20 - Jezki
16.00 - Glens Melody
16.40 - Very Wood
17.15 - Keltus (nap)

cruais

1.30 Seedling
2.40 Black thunder

Ew Double

mr.jingle

My first day Placepot is done not expecting much of a return though, probably the easiest day of the festival with so little handicaps and the form of the horses at the top of each market:
L'ami Serge
Un Ds Sceaux
Ned Stark/Gevrey Chambertin
Faugheen
Annie Power
Very Wood/Cogry

Francie Barrett

Well I feel silly now, 4 of the 7 horses I did antepost are a bigger price now. Looks to be some unreal value out there.

Jon Stark

Just two small bets and a double on Jezki and Ned Stark tomorrow. Keeping the powder dry for Wednesday.

ellejay

L15 E/W
1.30 Shaneshill
2.05 Josses Hill
2.40 The Druids Nephew
3.20 Jezki

4.00 Glen's Melody E/W
5.15 Keltus E/W

bohsman

13.30 - Shaneshill (PP)
14.05 - Josses Hill (PP)
14.40 - Ned Stark
15.20 - The New One
16.00 - Annie Power
16.40 - Very Wood
17.15 - Keltus

@6-1

Smashing w/o UDS 15-2
Gallant Oscar 10-1
L'Unique w/o AP 8-1
Keltus 10-1

€1 ew Yankee


Also have Jezki @6-1

qwabercd

1.30 jollyallan
2.05 smashing
2.40 the druids nephew
3.20 jezki
5.15 keltus

TommyTheGun

The four FAVS, 19/1 accumulator Betfair

Barakilla, cogry, keltus (ew patent)

Hulk Hands

andyman wrote: »

Mad scenes on PP just now, Douvan 2/1 and Jezki 5/1.

The New One can be got for 5/1 in places now too

Douvan is 3.15 on Betfair. Be surprised if you dont get 5/2 tomorrow

Francie Barrett

Where are people getting The New One at 5/1? That is serious odds.

sdoc13

Shaneshill(free bet if looses)
Faugheen if price drifts tomorrow
Have Very wood AP at 25s Happy he is running
Think Bold Henry will run well may be a bet would want it bigger than current odds
Leap Dearg ew

andyman

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Where are people getting The New One at 5/1? That is serious odds.

William Hill were doing it earlier, seem to be going back to 4s now.

Theatre Queen could be a bit of value in the 4 miler. Lto she was about 30 lengths behind the group at the start and stayed on to finish 4th. 40/1 could be a bit of value

cruais

Also discovered i have:

1.30 Jollyallan
2.05 Vibrato Valtrat
2.40 Ned Stark
3.20 Jezki

Have that in a lucky 31

Douvan
Nichols Canyo
Don Poli
Bordini
Petite Parisienne

Small ew Accum

Johner

andyman wrote: »

William Hill were doing it earlier, seem to be going back to 4s now.

Theatre Queen could be a bit of value in the 4 miler. Lto she was about 30 lengths behind the group at the start and stayed on to finish 4th. 40/1 could be a bit of value

Won't be any value if she refuses to race which is a possibility, one to back in running if you fancy it.

srm23

reckon hurricane fly has any chance??

andyman

Horizontal Speed is the one sticking out for me in the last.

Johner

srm23 wrote: »

reckon hurricane fly has any chance??

With the ground the way it is I wouldn't think so, can see his run panning out quite similar to last year.

Shanee.

andyman wrote: »

Horizontal Speed is the one sticking out for me in the last.

Yeah went through the trends and he was sticking out like a sore thumb. 16/1 when i looked earlier

LesVerts

Fly at 10/1 is a tempting e/w bet.

Shanee.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Douvan is 3.15 on Betfair. Be surprised if you dont get 5/2 tomorrow

Hopefully it keeps going and we can smash it up at 11/4 :cool:

Francie Barrett

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=6851924&category=0

BOOKMAKERS were on Monday night facing up to the possibility of an unprecedented £100 million payout if Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power justify favouritism at Cheltenham on Tuesday.

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Cheltenham Postcast
That was the prediction of bookmaking heavyweight William Hill. The company was among a number of firms to again voice trepidation about the four Willie Mullins-trained and Ruby Walsh-ridden favourites who will form what Ladbrokes are calling “the world’s most popular accumulator bet”.

Frankie Dettori’s Magnificent Seven, which cost the industry in the region of £40m in 1996, is the benchmark by which substantial payouts are measured and William Hill believe Tuesday’s results have the potential to set a new scale.

“It could be one of the worst days in bookmaking history if the Four Horses of the Apocalypse all win and we could be looking at a payout in the region of £100 million,” said William Hill’s Jon Ivan-Duke, who predicted a £17m payout for his firm alone should all four Mullins hotpots prevail.

He added: “A lot of people will be having that accumulator and it could be pretty devastating for the bookmakers.”

Predicting an outcome that could cost the bookies even more, Ivan-Duke said: “Tony McCoy also has a favourite on the card with Pendra and he could easily be the horse punters include in fivefolds so it could be the worst day for bookmakers since Dettori day.”

In the region of 90 per cent of festival best are placed on the day and Ladbrokes expect “hundreds of thousands” of punters to place an identical bet in the hope Walsh wins the four big races on day one.

Ladbrokes spokesman David Williams said: “The Ruby Walsh acca has the potential to do untold damage. It’s going to be the most popular accumulator bet we’ve ever known. If all four horses win we’ll never have known a day like it at Cheltenham. It could run to tens of millions of pounds. We’ll be desperate to see one of them beaten. Anything more than that will be a luxury but we dare not dream.”

Despite sharing those concerns, Paddy Power suggested all would not be lost should the big four justify favouritism.

Power said: “Black Friday two years ago was the worst day at the Cheltenham Festival in the history of the company with four favourites, including Bobs Worth in the Gold Cup, Irish banker Salsify in the Foxhunter and Our Conor at 4-1 all winning, each of them bad results in their own right let alone the multiple mayhem which ensued. But that really could be a drop in the ocean if all of Willie Mullins’ good things oblige on Tuesday.

“Saying that, the festival is a marathon and the other three days will give the bookies plenty of time to recoup the potential losses.”

The four-timer on Monday equated to around a near 22-1 chance at best odds available while the fivefold including Pendra paid a potential 168-1.

gooseygander

Un de sceaux, jezki, and Annie power for a 14/1 treble, worth 5 shekels me thinks.

the groutch

I'd say it could be even more than £100m, with Frankie, Barney Curley, etc. there was little warning, and only regular punters would be involved.

With this there will be a huge amount of ante-post bets, and Cheltenham is quickly catching up with the Grand National for occassional punters.

Throw in the "Ruby Factor", and bloodbath would be the understatement of the year.

jj mac

Hi guys, when looking at the racecard what tells me a horse is in first time headgear. Could be important this week. Cheers and good luck to all for the week.

Limestone1

Sizing John and Jezki for me. Roll on tomorrow.

DDC1990

Clarcam e/w at 18-1 is cracking value.

senorG

Think ladbrokes are doing annie at evens and douvan 3s from 9am..

mohican22

senorG wrote: »

Think ladbrokes are doing annie at evens and douvan 3s from 9am..

To what stake €25?

Abihsot

1.30 L'Ami Serge
2.05 Un de Sceaux
2.40 Ned Stark
3.20 Faugheen

mulbot

supreme novice- Seedling

champion chase-champagne fever

triumph hurdle-Petite Parisienne

gold cup-smad place, .....

BQQ

jj mac wrote: »

Hi guys, when looking at the racecard what tells me a horse is in first time headgear. Could be important this week. Cheers and good luck to all for the week.

first time blinkers would be: b1
first time cheekpieces: p1
first time visor: v1
eyeshields are: e/s
hood is: h
tongue strap is: t

Basically, the letter(s) mean they're wearing it and the number 1 means it's for the first time.


Btw, if you're under the impression this is important, here's a few cold hard facts:
In the last 10 years, those wearing any kind of headgear for the first time returned a collective record of 12-258 (-£30).

Harry Angstrom

Gregk961 wrote: »

Wouldn't back Douvan at 4s to be honest. Might be fighting for favoritism tomorrow morning

I'd back him at 4's. Shaneshill is fourth fav so it just goes to show that Willie Mullins has most bases covered, and I don't think it ever occurred to Ruby that he might be on the wrong one. The Paddy Power offer gives some added insurance.

mulbot

Supreme novice-Seedling
Arkle-Sail by the Sea
H'cap chase-Shangani

(if only)

Gavin "shels"

So far:

Double on UDS and AP, also a treble with Honourable Gent in the 4.15 Sedgefield.

Also on Pendra and most likely Keltus in the last.

unitedrover

I feel that Douvan is over hyped in the Supreme. He hasn't actually done anything yet to warrant him to be so far ahead in the market. Lami Serge on the other hand has won a Grade 1 and I think he will prevail tomorrow.

unitedrover

For anyone who fancies UDS but is worried about the fences, Faller Insurance with PP seems a good idea. 4/9 so you're not going to get rich but if he stays on his feet he will win. If he does drift in the morning his faller insurance odds will drift too.

coopdog85

unitedrover wrote: »

For anyone who fancies UDS but is worried about the fences, Faller Insurance with PP seems a good idea. 4/9 so you're not going to get rich but if he stays on his feet he will win. If he does drift in the morning his faller insurance odds will drift too.

It's also worth noting the fallers insurance price will not drift. If you take 4/9 you're stuck with it.

unitedrover

coopdog85 wrote: »

It's also worth noting the fallers insurance price will not drift. If you take 4/9 you're stuck with it.

I know that. I'm just hoping the bookies take him on in the morning and then will be the time to bet on him. Having said that I'm pretty sure he will get round. None of his rivals are faultless either.

coopdog85

unitedrover wrote: »

I know that. I'm just hoping the bookies take him on in the morning and then will be the time to bet on him. Having said that I'm pretty sure he will get round. None of his rivals are faultless either.

Personally I couldn't back him with stolen money. He's far too buzzy & on edge for Cheltenham in my opinion. I just can't understand people backing these horses at the prices at the festival. Asking for trouble!