Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Harps

Hi res models not indicating anything too severe, the front on Wednesday afternoon might actually end up being the most severe part of the event for most with strong winds and driving rain arriving just in time for rush hour traffic

Still looks stormy along the north and west coasts but nothing they're not used to

Villain

Harps wrote: »

Hi res models not indicating anything too severe, the front on Wednesday afternoon might actually end up being the most severe part of the event for most with strong winds and driving rain arriving just in time for rush hour traffic

Still looks stormy along the north and west coasts but nothing they're not used to

Yep thankfully it has downgraded but still pretty nasty

gust_36

Graces7

electrobanana wrote: »

IM working in the Shetlands atm and iv never come across wind like it a bus got blown onto its side on Saturday along with power cuts and lighting strikes..absolutely mental stuff

That was what I lived with in the Orkneys..one year there was a thunderbolt.. cracked in the air with that dreadful electric smell.. Dozens of tvs blew and modems.. we were all on dial up there. One telegraph pole was smashed to splinters and cattle got shocks through their chains and broke them. Power wa out for days that time but we were peat dependent. Jut stayed safe unless feeding livestock. But if you had to be out it was as if the skin was being flayed off your face. Sandpaper! No trees on that small island and shetland ponies are small of course

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

On balance would like to see a level 2 thread designator at this point, that would apply to all western counties and some south coast. Would leave at level one for central, eastern for now. The 18z RGEM shows 955 mb centre near M6 at 18z Wed phased with 495 dm upper low.

We are not yet in any position to rule out a very damaging event and need to be on highest alert.

So I should bring the washing in so? OK!;)

Bummer1234

Knex. wrote: »

Perhaps the wrong place to ask this, but I have a flight home, JFK - Dublin, due to land at 5.15am on Thursday morning. Is there a risk of this being delayed, or forced to land in Heathrow, or anything like that?

No worries if you can't answer. Was just curious after seeing the thread title.

All depends on the wind direction and wind strength at that time of the morning so hard to say, That aside if the weather does be like that you will be in irish skies before you know it with that jet stream.

ninebeanrows

EURO4 has sustained 100km/hr winds brushing the north-west coast, looking pretty nasty to me!

irish1967

Perched here right on the edge of Donegal Bay. When will we be able to make a call on this storm.
Still a bit conflicting reports.
A. Nothing we aren't used to up here in the NW
B. 100kmh sustained just off the coast.

Will it be a nowcast situation or will we have a better idea at some point today ?

Also with 3.3m high tide is overtopping going to come into play ?

legomaniac

Sorry for sounding rude but there seems to be more interest in a few flakes of snow than the potential for a storm tomorrow. Conflicting posts on here. No warnings on met Eireann site about it. MT saying it could be damaging. Others on here saying it's downgraded. I expect Donegal to have a stormy day but just how severe?

Villain

legomaniac wrote: »

Sorry for sounding rude but there seems to be more interest in a few flakes of snow than the potential for a storm tomorrow. Conflicting posts on here. No warnings on met Eireann site about it. MT saying it could be damaging. Others on here saying it's downgraded. I expect Donegal to have a stormy day but just how severe?

There is a risk of saying it has downgraded and become complacent about it, this is still going to be a serious storm.

Met Eireann don't issue warnings too far in advance but their forecasts have mentioned this event over the last 2 days and they will issue warnings later.

Donegal coast will see gusts of up to 140km/h imo

maquiladora

The only models worth looking at now are the HIRLAM and Euro4.

It doesn't look too stormy for inland areas, compared to last year's storms, but western/northwestern coastal counties will probably be getting a red warning from Met Eireann unless there is a downgrade.

ninebeanrows

GFS P remains severe for the north-west.

Quite a long period of strong winds ahead too which isn't usually the case with these type of storms, it really slows down as it moves across us..

legomaniac

Orange wind warning issued by met Eireann. 130kmph gusts in northwest and South. Not as bad as feared. Could this upgrade?

maquiladora

06Z HIRLAM looks slightly stronger. Gales pushing a bit bit further inland at times.

Larbre34

legomaniac wrote: »

Orange wind warning issued by met Eireann. 130kmph gusts in northwest and South. Not as bad as feared. Could this upgrade?

Yes, very likely. Localised red alert may be in place by tonight for +12hrs

Harps

To clarify my post, it does look quite severe for the north west coast. Nothing you wouldn't expect in a typical winter but it looks like the stormiest day of the season so far so definitely take the usual precautions in if you in an exposed place

Elsewhere the front earlier in the day could be the main issue with heavy driving rain combined with strong gusts

Villain

Slight upgrade on 06z

maquiladora

legomaniac wrote: »

Orange wind warning issued by met Eireann. 130kmph gusts in northwest and South. Not as bad as feared. Could this upgrade?

If they have confidence in something stronger then they'll probably upgrade it tonight or tomorrow morning. Still 24+ hours away.

Villain

Related Weather Warning details as at 10:18 13/1/15 for record


STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Southerly winds of mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h will develop on Wednesday afternoon and will continue through the night, when they will veer west to southwest. Strongest winds will be along the coast. Winds will start to ease off later on Thursday morning.
Issued:
Tuesday 13 January 2015 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 14 January 2015 12:00 to Thursday 15 January 2015 12:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon and Tipperary

Southerly winds of mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h will develop on Wednesday afternoon and will continue through the night, when they will veer west to southwest. Winds will start to ease off later on Thursday morning.
Issued:
Tuesday 13 January 2015 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 14 January 2015 12:00 to Thursday 15 January 2015 12:00

Graces7

RobertKK wrote: »

I hope too we get nothing too severe, the storm of 12/2/14 was enough to last me for a while.
Stay north, rather cold than damaging winds.

Hi Robert; was wondering how you are and thinking of you.. Stay safe now! Blessings....

goat2

its time to batten the hatches, and hope everyone stay safe

legomaniac

I think I'll go down and see Frank. I might bring him up from his place as he is on the coast here in South Donegal and it could get rough tomorrow. I am taking no chances. Securing stuff around the garden and the farm. Will nip to shops later for extra supplies in case electricity goes.

murdig

Should we be expecting a big hit in North Kerry?

chris2007

Anything expected for the greater Dublin Region today?

Volvoair

Villain wrote: »

Related Weather Warning details as at 10:18 13/1/15 for record


STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Southerly winds of mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h will develop on Wednesday afternoon and will continue through the night, when they will veer west to southwest. Strongest winds will be along the coast. Winds will start to ease off later on Thursday morning.
Issued:
Tuesday 13 January 2015 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 14 January 2015 12:00 to Thursday 15 January 2015 12:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon and Tipperary

Southerly winds of mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h will develop on Wednesday afternoon and will continue through the night, when they will veer west to southwest. Winds will start to ease off later on Thursday morning.
Issued:
Tuesday 13 January 2015 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 14 January 2015 12:00 to Thursday 15 January 2015 12:00

55kmh = 34 miles per hour.
90kmh =55 miles per hour.

these winds are nothing special......why the big fuss?

M.T. Cranium

The ICON maps woulld be a slight upgrade also, lowest pressure 937 mbs but gradient wind just slightly stronger than average of GFS/GEM.

Two strongest perturbations of GEFS appear to be 4 and 17, the latter would be a level 3 event for certain with a central pressure that falls to 928 mbs. I notice that this one runs a bit slower than most, peaking the winds around 0700h Thursday in the northwest.

Looking at the actual storm's recent evolution, it has deepened by 20 mbs overnight and is now about 996 mb east of Newfoundland. Oil platform winds in the Hibernian field peaked at 53 knots recently at this early stage of development (can be compared to the Kinsale energy platform for exposure and to Galway Bay for position relative to storm track). Bear in mind that this storm has about 50 mb at least to deepen now to arrival.

The 12z model runs will have the benefit of 12z upper air data and the degree of phasing that has actually taken place between surface low and the diving upper low which is expected to phase by tomorrow. At this point, would be prepared to go about 10 knots in either direction from earlier forecasts as there is still quite a spread in guidance and having said that there were two very strong GEFS variants (out of 20) there are also two or three that represent non-severe level one outcomes that barely crack 950 mbs.

Although we seem to be well placed in the level two range on current indications, I would ask those in the know to give an opinion around 1900h after the 12z model runs as to peak gust potential and level 2 or 3 for final approach. Level 3 if required would come with the regional breakdown of course, don't imagine that this can evolve into a country-wide level 3 but there is some potential for coastal areas to be near that. Would also mention that last winter's strongest storm did not produce very strong winds in Mayo or Donegal as it came inland over Galway. So anyone thinking back to last winter is going to need to factor in that only the southern half of the country saw the stronger winds from that event. In the north your strongest storm last winter would have been less intense by comparison and this one looks likely to equal or exceed your strongest event. That is not likely to be the case in west Munster, this one may rank more like top five by comparison.

Villain

Volvoair wrote: »

55kmh = 34 miles per hour.
90kmh =55 miles per hour.

these winds are nothing special......why the big fuss?

Well you picked the Yellow warning speeds, the Orange Warning has Gusts of up to 130kmh or 80mph which are unusual and severe.

M.T. Cranium

Early indications from GME and RGEM are upgrades of about 5 kt or 10 km/hr from slightly deeper central pressures on same tracks. RGEM now phasing with 484 dm upper low. The 00z Thurs position is off the map grid but enclosed by at least 950, while GME very close to 940 mbs. RGEM also very aggressive with cold air advection behind storm towards west Munster for Thursday, would indicate strong snow potential inland.

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Early indications from GME and RGEM are upgrades of about 5 kt or 10 km/hr from slightly deeper central pressures on same tracks. RGEM now phasing with 484 dm upper low. The 00z Thurs position is off the map grid but enclosed by at least 950, while GME very close to 940 mbs. RGEM also very aggressive with cold air advection behind storm towards west Munster for Thursday, would indicate strong snow potential inland.

Thanks MT for your updates. is the track staying mainly the same?

maquiladora

NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center

The E Atlantic is very active at this time, and the OPC 48-Hour surface forecast valid 0000 UTC 01/15 indicates another 943 hPa hurricane force low will develop to the NW of Ireland. The strongest core of winds associated with cold advection south of the low center is expected just off the coast at that time. In addition, the 48-Hour wind/wave forecast indicates seas will build to 13 meters (~43 ft)!

Villain

Track has shifted slight East on 12z bringing an increase on Western Coasts.