Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

maquiladora

irishgeo wrote: »

doesnt look that bad, which depression are we worried about?

_Whimsical_

Don't forget the trusty live wind map everyone. For those of us who don't understand the more sophisticated maps here it can be useful, and it's fun too look at it too when there's a storm a'comin'.☺

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-13.06,44.76,441

Villain

The NMM 3km shows nasty gusts in Western ares thursday morning

dave1982

just seen this on facebook

https://www.facebook.com/weatheralertireland?fref=nf

****SEVERE WEATHER WARNING****
AREA: NATIONWIDE.
HIGH RISK: MUNS / CONN / ULST / STH LEINS.
TIME: WEDNESDAY A/NOON TO THURSDAY AM.
A severe (RED) weather warning for coastal areas of the western seaboard tomorrow afternoon and evening/night. A less severe but very strong storm conditions elsewhere in Ireland.
Expect widespread disruption to power supply and delays and or cancellations to air, sea and rail travel.
We expect widespread damage throughout the W to NW of Ireland with hurricane force gusts of 140kmh plus with dangerous sustained wind speeds.
Coastal flooding is likely in the W & NW with amoderate risk of breaches on southern coasts of Munster and Sth Leinster.
Elsewhere coastal areas of South Munster, Leinster and east Ulster will see gusts reaching 110kmh to 130kmh mid to late afternoon onwards.
Some risk of localised flooding on the southwest and west tomorrow evening.
Please do not attempt to drive, walk along coastal drives, high ground and avoid forest walks etc.
High sided trucks etc should think twice before taking to the roads tomorrow, especially on roads in the western half of Ireland.
Leave bikes and motorbikes at home tomorrow
Non essential travel, commutes should be cancelled.
Call in upon those living alone and elderly neighbours if you can, and early tomorrow morning tie down any loose fittings around your property such as broken tree limbs, trampolines. wheelie bins etc.
We might update again later tonight if its required once the 18z model run updates.
CONFIDENCE IN DETAIL: 90% with a 10% chance for further upgrades and or downgrades.

squarecircles

Found this article on the impending storm....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/13/north-atlantic-bomb-cyclone-tracks-toward-ireland-u-k-threatens-hurricane-force-winds/

Villain

Well that was a poor forecast on RTE, apart from reading the warnings she didn't really give the storm any great attention

ninebeanrows

18z GFS looks even nastier, I think 80kt gusts at Belmullet are likely

ninebeanrows

Brings quite widespread gusts to 60/65kts in the wrap around the 18z

Northern Chaser

What sort of winds can I expect in central Ni

ninebeanrows

Even Greater Dublin region at risk of 65kt gusts as the low moves across on Thursday noon

squarecircles

From irish weather online facebook page.


______________________________________________
As of 7:30 pm Tuesday, forecast is "steady as she goes" after reviewing all recent guidance. There is still some uncertainty and maximum wind gusts may be in the range 110-130 km/hr for south coast, 130-150 km/hr in coastal west and northwest. Further inland the range should be 90-110 km/hr. Some damage and power interruptions seem likely to us, but we feel that for areas of west Munster that were hit hard last February, this storm will not quite reach those levels. It may do so in some parts of Mayo and Donegal and possibly also around Galway Bay (to be clear, some of those regions were spared last February so what's implied is that this storm could be about as strong there as last year's 12 Feb storm was in Limerick and Kerry) .
Therefore if in these regions or any well exposed locations in Ireland, avoid unnecessary travel during the strongest winds expected from mid-afternoon Wednesday to late morning Thursday. Secure loose objects and if you have to park a vehicle outdoors, pick a spot that is not downwind from trees or other potentially loose objects. To assess that before the winds pick up, you can stand in the proposed location and face southwest then west, to see what is upwind of that location. It might save you a bit of damage to your car if you avoid a location where a tree branch or roofing tiles could fly into it. Definitely time to bring in the trampolines etc. ... Watch for any further updates before mdinight and the usual morning forecast around 0730 to 0745h as we track the rapidly developing storm now located in the western Atlantic near 52N 38W. -- Peter and your IWO forecast team

Villain

Yep 18z upgrades the impact

Northern Chaser, up to 110km/h or even 120km/h Gusts

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

Yep 18z upgrades the impact

Northern Chaser, up to 110km/h or even 120km/h Gusts

Northern chaser?

AnotherYear

Will be interesting to see what gusts Malin head will record

Villain

munsterlegend wrote: »

Northern chaser?

I was replying to poster above, too lazy to quote

Northern Chaser

Thanks pretty heavy indeed. I think once this snow event slows the chat will quickly turn

Nono Toure

.

Julabo

So what is the general opinion on here about this storm?

Winds of what speed? What is the damage potential on the west coast?

I am supposed to drive from Clare to Donegal Thursday morning for work. Am I better to just re schedule this to be on the safe side?

murdig

What are the chances this warning will be changed to red?

Meteorite58

The weather forecast on RTE after the news was poor indeed, reminded me of the 21. 30 forecast just before the big storm last Feb. There was an air of nervousness I thought , like a sense of holding back for later ?

maquiladora

murdig wrote: »

What are the chances this warning will be changed to red?

There's a chance. Some models do show winds strong enough to meet Met Eireann's criteria for a red warning, but it would be limited to exposed coastlines of Mayo/Donegal/Galway.

dublincelt

Flying back into Dublin at 20:00 tomorrow on an A320. What are the chances of a diverted flight? Are there likely to be disruption to flights into DUB at around this time similiar to last week? Any feedback would be very much appreciated!

Tactical

Julabo wrote: »

So what is the general opinion on here about this storm?

Winds of what speed? What is the damage potential on the west coast?

I am supposed to drive from Clare to Donegal Thursday morning for work. Am I better to just re schedule this to be on the safe side?

Take a moment to read back through this thread and M.T's update as well as the many other knowledgeable posters.

M.T. will be updating again around midnight and early tomorrow morning.

maquiladora

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The weather forecast on RTE after the news was poor indeed, reminded me of the 21. 30 forecast just before the big storm last Feb. There was an air of nervousness I thought , like a sense of holding back for later ?

I don't think this storm can be compared February 2014. That storm was exceptional because of the southerly track across the country which brought the core of very strong winds inland over the south and midlands.
Tomorrow's storm is taking more of a traditional route, and the core of strongest winds will be brushing up along the west and northwest coasts rather than pushing far inland.
So for west/northwest coasts it might be as strong or stronger than Feb 2014, but for the vast majority of the country it won't be as severe as that was at all.

2014 :



Tomorrow :

_Whimsical_

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The weather forecast on RTE after the news was poor indeed, reminded me of the 21. 30 forecast just before the big storm last Feb. There was an air of nervousness I thought , like a sense of holding back for later ?

I agree! I live in the city so for me severe weather is an inconvenience. It's easy to forget there are people making decisions with their lives and livelihoods on the basis of the nightly forecast. I'm thinking of the poster deciding to move an elderly relation to his home because he doesn't want to leave him alone in an exposed area and people who've mentioned having animals on farms. Really there should be strong warnings and an emphasis on preparing for an event that might be severe so people can make these decisions, they seem to have forgotten on rte that it's not all about whether commuters in Dublin should bring a brolly or not.

Cork boy 55

North Atlantic bomb cyclone tracks toward Ireland, U.K., threatens hurricane-force winds
Yet another wicked North Atlantic storm is taking aim at Ireland and the U.K. this week. Over the next 24 hours, what is currently a garden-variety low pressure system off the coast of Newfoundland will explode in intensity as it tracks east toward northern Europe.

If the forecasts verify, the storm will easily meet the meteorological criteria of a “bomb” cyclone, or one that falls at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. The minimum pressure in the cyclone is expected to drop from 998 mb on Tuesday morning to 974 mb Tuesday night, and then yet another 31 millibars to 943 mb on Wednesday night

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/13/north-atlantic-bomb-cyclone-tracks-toward-ireland-u-k-threatens-hurricane-force-winds/

Meteorite58

Yes indeed a totally different kind of storm, but I think they are holding back to the last moment to be as certain as possible before they announce a red warning for Western counties especially costal regions.

ninebeanrows

I think the storm is being a little underestimated, I hope people don't take their eye of the ball, this storm will be right up there with last year's storm. I hope people take proper precautions and the Met get out a Red warning to the affected areas in time tomorrow if currently guidance holds up.

- It did look for a while over the past few days that the storm was to track to the north-west and be a relatively weak, but more recent model data is moving back to the more extreme solutions offered late last week.

Would only take a few minor changes to make this a really dangerous storm.

vistafinder

A clip from Joanna Donelly was played on local radio while ago and she had a different tune to the forecast at 9.30

ninebeanrows

Last February's was quite exceptional though for the south-west.

Perhaps this will be more like the system on the 26/27th of December 2013, a lot of similarities between the storms.

This one perhaps a little stronger.