Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Oscar Bravo

Joanna Donelly has been excellent on Radio 1 the past 2 evenings just before 6pm....In all fairness to Siobhan , she had an awful lot to get through in a short time. she gave the warnings , not a lot more she could say. expect a red alert from met eireann in the morning for counties Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway,Clare and Kerry

coillsaille

Weathercheck wrote: »

Last February's was quite exceptional though for the south-west.

Perhaps this will be more like the system on the 26/27th of December 2013, a lot of similarities between the storms.

This one perhaps a little stronger.

The Stephens Day one uprooted my favourite mountain ash tree in the garden. Got loan of a digger and lifted it back in place and banked around it with soil. February's one brought it back down. Watching it burn in the stove as I type...

ninebeanrows

18z ensembles quite strong, a few would bring a more wider scale Red Warning

Smidge

Did any of last years wind storms have a red warning?

goodies

thank you all for your in-put been tracking with great interest. We are on the exposed south west (Kerry)coast by the sea. We got hit hard last february and it was scary. We are preparing for power loss etc. Just trying to get some sense of the timing of potential trajectory tomorrow. I read from midday but wondering have any of you experts a sense of peak core times for us to worry about tomorrow. We have children to pick up from school etc and even thinking about that worries me. thank you

maquiladora

coillsaille wrote: »

The Stephens Day one uprooted my favourite mountain ash tree in the garden. Got loan of a digger and lifted it back in place and banked around it with soil. February's one brought it back down. Watching it burn in the stove as I type...

I think tomorrow's storm will be in the same ballpark as the Stephens Day 2013 storm, but with the areas impacted most being the west and northwest rather than the southwest/south.
I expect we'll see gusts in the region of 130 km/h on the west coast.

maquiladora

Smidge wrote: »

Were any of last years wind storms a red?

At least 2. There were so many lows last winter I get confused though.

Smidge

maquiladora wrote: »

At least 2. There were so many lows last winter I get confused though.

Thanks Maq, I couldn't remember if there was one(never mind two):)

RED L4 0TH

maquiladora wrote: »

I think tomorrow's storm will be in the same ballpark as the Stephens Day 2013 storm, but with the areas impacted most being the west and northwest rather than the southwest/south.
I expect we'll see gusts in the region of 130 km/h on the west coast.

A bit of a tighter gradient perhaps on the current predictions as compared to 2013?

Storm 10

Just on Sky News the storm is called "Rachel"

maquiladora

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

A bit of a tighter gradient perhaps on the current predictions as compared to 2013?

I think they are quite similar, the difference being the northern half of the country will get the strongest winds whereas in 2013 it was the southern half. Ireland is such a small place that the exact tracks makes all the difference.

Harry Palmr

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just on Sky News the storm is called "Rachell"

These do not need a name, what's the criteria?

waterways

Will there be any ships near the area of the track of the developing low tomorrow sending data?

Kilnababe

February 12th storm was red but it was a late change and I expect the same from ME tomorrow. Due to road conditions I don't expect school buses to run anyway tomorrow but I'm keeping the kids out of school. I really hope it doesn't get as bad as last February it was the scariest thing I ever saw.

Mint Sauce

Have had light falls for the last hour or so in Sligo. Flakes have got a bit bigger in the last few minutes though.

maquiladora

Harry Palmr wrote: »

These do not need a name, what's the criteria?

Free University Of Berlin has been naming all lows for decades. I don't know where this "Rachell" name comes from, the media has been inventing their own names in recent years to make these seem more dramatic. If it's going to called anything, it should be Hermann.

irishgeo

The irish and uk met offices are going to start officially naming storms soon i think .

coillsaille

maquiladora wrote: »

I think tomorrow's storm will be in the same ballpark as the Stephens Day 2013 storm, but with the areas impacted most being the west and northwest rather than the southwest/south.
I expect we'll see gusts in the region of 130 km/h on the west coast.

Well being on the north shore of Galway Bay we seem to have gotten a fair share of the brunt of both the Stephens Day and Feb storms last year and it seems we'll get to enjoy the almost full force of this system also.

Excuse me while I go out to hug my remaining trees...

M.T. Cranium

Only briefly (will there be ships near this low).

I will update in a moment, not really picking up any radically new ideas, just sensing that the storm is going to hit towards the upper half of the expected range but key period for me will be 03-06z when the new guidance arrives combined with the inevitable momentum aspect that we call nowcasting.

For the Kerry question, fairly early on you may see a peak in winds there as there will tend to be a strong south to southwest flow well ahead of the strongest gradient as pressures fall rapidly, and it may seem quite bad but probably won't quite compare to 12 Feb. Maybe 2-5 pm for peak winds and a secondary peak middle of the night?

For the various questions about travel on Wed or Thurs in Connacht, I would stay put between 1 p.m. Wed and about 1100h Thurs or perhaps a bit later in north, if storm stays on schedule. I would not chance it with the potential for winds over 140 km/hr in exposed areas.

Will be off site from 0100 to 0500 but gathering data remotely, after I post this update, so will not have a chance to update again until morning forecast.

Shpongler

Plenty snow near Mallow this evening

RED L4 0TH

18Z EURO4 for 3am Thursday. NW Mayo, W Galway, W Donegal seem to have a mean wind speed of 80 kmh or more indicated.

Oscar Bravo

Its fast approaching 1155, so anyone near a radio or Sky 0160 , its time to head over and listen to the general and sea area forecast on Radio 1 and the very latest on tomorrows storm ....

irishgeo

It could be snowy and icy at 9am leaving for work tomorrow and wet and blowing a hurricane when I get back.

Hooter23

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Its fast approaching 1155, so anyone near a radio or Sky 0160 , its time to head over and listen to the general and sea area forecast on Radio 1 and the very latest on tomorrows storm ....

What did it say missed it...

Storm 10

Hooter23 wrote: »

What did it say missed it...

Did not sound too bad

Oscar Bravo

To be honest not much mention of a storm at all, more "wet and windy" than anything else....im sure this will change in the morning. but just pretty much as wrote on the website.

Connemara Farmer

maquiladora wrote: »

If it's going to called anything, it should be Hermann.

Wouldn't the red tops cream themselves, can see the headline now:

IT'S A MUNSTER!!!

With a complimentary picture of, oh, Liberty Hall blowing over in Eyre Square in Galway for accuracy

Hooter23

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

To be honest not much mention of a storm at all, more "wet and windy" than anything else....im sure this will change in the morning. but just pretty much as wrote on the website.

Thats ridiculous I know were use to stormy weather in the west but they should still warn people everytime!

Steopo

another significant feature of last years storms were the high tides & huge sea swells which caused so much coastal damage on the south and southwest coasts - we're not at high tide tomorrow and forecast swells although significant are not on the scale as some of last years storms

Storm 10

They will have egg on their face if they put up a red warning tomorrow given all the latest updates and charts here