Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 5:19pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

is that lower than you thought?

Need to get the 18Z to see how deep it goes. It does show storm force winds on the coast at times though.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2015 5:19pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Mt has stated that it might not be until tomorrow before we can say for certain the intensity/track of this storm. Was the February 2014 storm predicted 48-72 hours in advance as being as severe as it turned out?

That storm was also on a Wednesday (peaked mid-day). Looking back on the forecast thread, there was considerable uncertainty on track and intensity through the weekend and the first strong alert issued was Monday 7 p.m., after which it seems that we must have been seeing model accuracy. So with this being perhaps 12 hours later, the similar clarity might come around the 0z Tuesday model runs. Bear in mind this low is currently a very weak and undeveloped feature over eastern Canada that barely has any circulation and a central pressure just below 1020 mbs.

The 12z RGEM shows a 960 mb low at 54N 20W at 12z Wednesday, 13 mb lower than at 00z, almost phased with a 495dm low at 500 mb and a very strong jet aimed at Ireland. I think at this point we could say level 2 for northwest coastal regions and level one elsewhere, but with ongoing possibility of an upgrade to that part.

electrobanana · 12-01-2015 6:03pm

IM working in the Shetlands atm and iv never come across wind like it a bus got blown onto its side on Saturday along with power cuts and lighting strikes..absolutely mental stuff

AnotherYear · 12-01-2015 7:21pm

electrobanana wrote: »

IM working in the Shetlands atm and iv never come across wind like it a bus got blown onto its side on Saturday along with power cuts and lighting strikes..absolutely mental stuff

Peak gust of 86mph at lerwick. Looks rough
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?R=310&LEVEL=140&ART=wind&WMO=03005&LANG=en&SI=mph&CEL=C

AnotherYear · 12-01-2015 7:22pm

ECM

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2015 8:26pm

ECMWF has some very strong winds for the northwest as the gradient briefly tightens as it pulls away. Nothing major, but not to be sniffed at either.

RobertKK · 12-01-2015 8:42pm

I hope too we get nothing too severe, the storm of 12/2/14 was enough to last me for a while.
Stay north, rather cold than damaging winds.

Iancar29 · 12-01-2015 9:10pm

Thursdays Forecast... :pac:

10931119_857728160940432_7242537377159574240_n.jpg?oh=c6020a1d348e9a54b99a0f55497ee554&oe=55217EC4

Northern Chaser · 12-01-2015 9:18pm

That chart showing 150kph winds for Donegal can someone please upload the latest high Rez version

Villain · 12-01-2015 10:20pm

Mayo could get a real battering gust_45.png?1421084337

squarecircles · 12-01-2015 10:34pm

I live here on the coast in Mayo.anything below 75 mph doesn't really concern me.could it be worse than that.any need for concern?

Villain · 12-01-2015 10:36pm

squarecircles wrote: »

I live here on the coast in Mayo.anything below 75 mph doesn't really concern me.could it be worse than that.any need for concern?

Yep certainly could be above that but still hard to forecast that detail with certainty.

RED L4 0TH · 12-01-2015 10:45pm

Places like Murrisk (near Westport, on the north side of Croagh Patrick) could get a lee effect wind situation with a southerly gale though. Having lived there previously you can get some really nasty squalls of wind. 95 kmh mean wind speed off the west coast later Wednesday according to the ME forecast after the 9pm news.

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2015 10:47pm

Trend to push low centre further northwest continues, winds ahead of the frontal passage still look very strong however with widespread gusts from 55-65kt

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2015 10:49pm

18z GFS still throws the occlusion back into the northwest with some very strong gusts.

- A fairly stormy parallel run

gfs-0-54.png?18

Villain · 12-01-2015 10:51pm

Yep it has shifted NW but still rather nasty and GFS (P) increases impact slightly.

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2015 10:56pm

Not too sure about the parallel wind maps, look a tad excessive

Harry Palmr · 12-01-2015 11:01pm

BBC News weather for the week rather dropping the ball by showing a forecast that was complied yesterday night.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2015 11:07pm

On balance would like to see a level 2 thread designator at this point, that would apply to all western counties and some south coast. Would leave at level one for central, eastern for now. The 18z RGEM shows 955 mb centre near M6 at 18z Wed phased with 495 dm upper low.

We are not yet in any position to rule out a very damaging event and need to be on highest alert.

RED L4 0TH · 12-01-2015 11:09pm

HIRLAM at 6pm & midnight on Wednesday.

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2015 11:12pm

Yea likely to see gusts widely to 100km/hr

upto 110km/hr along southern and eastern coastal fringes.

North-west could see winds to 140 km/hr

pauldry · 12-01-2015 11:23pm

id say the max gusts will be just over 130kph in NW

Maybe wrong but it doesnt seem as severe as previous

Villain · 12-01-2015 11:25pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

On balance would like to see a level 2 thread designator at this point, that would apply to all western counties and some south coast. Would leave at level one for central, eastern for now. The 18z RGEM shows 955 mb centre near M6 at 18z Wed phased with 495 dm upper low.

We are not yet in any position to rule out a very damaging event and need to be on highest alert.

Yep I would agree with Level 2 as an Advisory, it can be downgraded if needed but I doubt that will happen and with gusts in excess of 130km/h possible in exposed Western coasts Met Eireann may well end up with a red alert.

Redsunset · 13-01-2015 12:07am

The GFS P becomes the operational on Wednesday.
As for Level 2 status. I'd like to leave it at Level 1 till the morning runs because at least we are Aware. Then thread title can be changed as needed.

RED L4 0TH · 13-01-2015 12:30am

18Z EURO4 for 6pm Wednesday.

TheMilkyPirate · 13-01-2015 2:17am

Looking stormy enough on the south/south east coast wednesday 6pm to 11pm. Would have taken the short drive to hook head only it will be dark and that isn't a place I want to be in the middle of a storm at night.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 4:25am

GME was first out, appeared to be a slight upgrade, has 942 mb low northwest Donegal Bay and tight gradient over Connacht. Next one that I might find is the RGEM 00z, will edit this post with impressions of that and early GFS.

If the GFSp is set to become the op as of Wednesday, they sure picked a fine time to make the transition, especially if the GFSp outperforms the pack on this event. OTOH if it proves to be least accurate ... maybe make the op the parallel?

RGEM was late arriving, will check back for it. The GFS both op and p seemed largely unchanged from previous run (during the storm passage, later may be a different story).

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2015 4:52am

GFS P still going for a fairly stormy day for Ireland

up there to rival the most severe storms of the last few years

gfs-0-54.png?0

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 7:44am

Both GEM and ECM are either level with previous run or a very slight upgrade on them. This seems to be the general theme. My current forecast would be peak gusts during the late afternoon south coast, evening and overnight northwest coasts as two surges of strong winds develop. Peak gusts at various locations (feel free to discuss, I have not issued daily forecast yet) would be 75 knots for Malin Head, 70 at Belmullet and Mace Head, 55-60 in southwest and 50-55 other coasts, 40-50 inland. Damage would be moderate at worst in that scenario. But I will mention a 25% risk that the storm could intensify by 10 knots which might make damage a bit more of an issue.

Definitely a level 2 event.

Knex* · 13-01-2015 8:26am

Perhaps the wrong place to ask this, but I have a flight home, JFK - Dublin, due to land at 5.15am on Thursday morning. Is there a risk of this being delayed, or forced to land in Heathrow, or anything like that?

No worries if you can't answer. Was just curious after seeing the thread title.

Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

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