Gales/Stormy Conditions in Connacht & Ulster Dec 10-11th

ninebeanrows

That low over the North Atlantic on Tuesday is set to go quite low.

Could bottom out near 935hPa

Iancar29

Lumi or pistolpetes11 ... could we have this thread and the potential snow showers thread merged as they are both being produced by the same system?

Trebor176

The ESB are reporting lightning and lightning related power outages in the Sligo/northwest area. That's according to their Twitter feed. Meanwhile, it's sunny, windy and cold in Dublin.

Trebor176

The ESB are reporting lightning and lightning related power outages in the Sligo/northwest area. That's according to their Twitter feed. Meanwhile, it's sunny, windy and cold in Dublin.

Irelandcool

anyone got information on the storm on friday that looks even more powerful given the fact the pressure is equal to that of category 3 hurricane but windspeed's be nice.

maquiladora

Wednesday within range of the higher res models now. Still looking like around 100 km/h gusts on northwest coasts, maybe 10% more on northern coasts. Looks fairly windy inland over the northern half of the country too though not severe.

Second depression Thur/Fri doesn't appear as evident on the latest models now.

maquiladora

Second low is back on the ECM again, but the GFS doesn't develop it, so still plenty of uncertainty.

Storm 10

Evelyn on this morning saying Wednesday will be a stormy day with damaging gusts

maquiladora

Wednesday. OPC charts. Would have been a significant event if the low had taken the more southerly track that the models were originally showing. Will still be pretty windy though with a big swell on the west coast.

ninebeanrows

Yes, the Thursday/Friday system certainly has potential to be quite troublesome..

Just one Ensemble member but shows what is possible.

Storm 10

Thanks to all the guys who post the charts, it never amazes me where ye get them, especially Maq who posts some great charts.

Hooter23

Storm 10 wrote: »

, it never amazes me where ye get them, .

Well it always amazes me:P:pac:

Irelandcool

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes, the Thursday/Friday system certainly has potential to be quite troublesome..

Just one Ensemble member but shows what is possible.

wouldn't this just be as powerful as cyclone darwin/tini from last february because it has the same air pressure as a category 3 hurricane. Although the isobars don't really give me accurate enough windspeeds

maquiladora

Irelandcool wrote: »

wouldn't this just be as powerful as cyclone darwin/tini from last february because it has the same air pressure as a category 3 hurricane. Although the isobars don't really give me accurate enough windspeeds

Central pressure in extratropical lows is not as indicative of intensity as it is with tropical systems. Small, deepening lows can pack more of a punch than mature lows with lower pressure. Last winter was a good example of that.

maquiladora

UKMO have put out an early warning now for the Thursday/Friday potential low covering NI, Wales and most of England.

Looking at the ECM ensembles+control at 96 hours, about 25 have a weaker low than the operational, 13 similar and 13 stronger. So a range of possibilities still.

ninebeanrows

EC maintains storm risk for overnight Thursday

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC maintains storm risk for overnight Thursday

Yep, GFS keeps it weak and south, ECM develops it more. Will be interesting once it gets within range of the hi-res models.

Edit: On closer inspection, that low is about 15-20mb weaker on the 12Z compared to the 0Z as it crosses Ireland.

80-90 kmh gusts look possible inland on Wednesday from the main low too.

Harry Palmr

What set up this conveyor belt?

maquiladora

Met Eireann wind warning is out for Wednesday now. Gusts to 110 km/h, in line with what the models have been showing the past couple of days.

Thursday/Friday still looking uncertain.

maquiladora

Wednesday :

maquiladora

Met Eireann have issued an orange warning for gusts to 130 km/h on northwest coasts with snow accumulations on high ground.

The higher-res models they are looking at must show it adding an extra punch.

Thursday/Friday still has the potential to deliver a period of strong winds and heavy rain as a second depression deepens as it crosses close to or over NI. Still uncertainty with that.

Storm 10

Wonder when the warning will go red as it usually does

Iancar29

Storm 10 wrote: »

Wonder when the warning will go red as it usually does

It won't go red unless theres a sudden large shift south of the storm.
It only just about warrants an Orange warning IMO , must of been the swell and the wintry aspect of it that moved it up to that level.

It'll be interesting to see what it looks like on visible satellite shortly , sure is packing a punch atm.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Wonder when the warning will go red as it usually does

No chance with this one. Track is too far north and it will have already matured, there's no room for upgrades. Scotland will be getting stronger winds from this and the UKMO still has a yellow warning for them.

maquiladora

Waves will be huge off the west and northwest coast. UKMO shipping forecast for Rockall and Malin putting the sea state at "phenomenal".

Sat scan from during the night shows the scale of the low.

Aerohead

I would have thought winds gusting to 130k would warrant a red warning, I am nearly certain we had red for 130k before from ME

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Aerohead wrote: »

I would have thought winds gusting to 130k would warrant a red warning, I am nearly certain we had red for 130k before from ME

Gusts over 130k is a red warning

Harps

Maybe if it was centred over more populated parts of the country but 130kph is a standard stormy day on the NW

maquiladora

Aerohead wrote: »

I would have thought winds gusting to 130k would warrant a red warning, I am nearly certain we had red for 130k before from ME

As Ian said I think it's the combination of the huge seas and snow on high ground along with the winds that triggered the orange warning since most people don't think much of a yellow warning when they hear it. I don't see any model that shows potential for red warning winds. I'll be surprised if we see gusts over 120 kmh to be honest, but we'll see.

space_LSA

- met.ie
- magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/