Gales/Stormy Conditions in Connacht & Ulster Dec 10-11th

Storm 10

As there is the possibility of a storm system next week that could be severe should we open a thread for this.,

Mods delete if you think its not necessary.

Changed the heading in case it don't happen

Aerohead

Cant be much of a storm coming , 330 views to now and no replies

Xenji

From M.T's forecast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy but possibly becoming stormy especially in Connacht and Ulster, timing still somewhat uncertain for the strongest winds, and intensity could be anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on how this evolves.

Chicken1

Met Eireann not giving too much away yet

By Monday morning, however, wet and very windy conditions will have set in
countrywide with a consequent rise in temperatures. There is a high probability
that southwesterly winds will further increase to gale force in many areas
during Monday, with periods of heavy rain indicated for most places also.

Clonmel1000

What? No snow? I don't believe it....................


Met Eireann predicting strong winds, heavy rain and mild temperatures for next week

maquiladora

I see no storm on the models here for Sunday/Monday.

Sunday :



Monday :

Storm 10

Evelyn showed a storm on the six news for Monday, suppose we will wait and see

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Evelyn showed a storm on the six news for Monday, suppose we will wait and see

I just looked at it there, what she showed was this graphic for next Wednesday, it was from the 0Z ECM.



But latest run has that low further north on Wednesday instead, so it looks like it won't have much impact here unless things change again.

Tazio

Storm 10 wrote:

Evelyn showed a storm on the six news for Monday, suppose we will wait and see

and again just now on the 2100 news..

Oneiric 3

I think maybe one positive from the primary storm center moving more north is that it could pull more warmer air into the mix, giving a better chance of a potent secondary or steep short wave to develop in the vicinity of Ireland. Either way though, still looks much windier and seasonal than of late.

Aerohead

John Eagleton getting worried about storms next week, taken from the Irish Independent

While the country is set to miss the icy blast predicted to hit the UK, the first snowflakes of the winter will fall here over the coming days.

Forecaster John Eagleton told the Herald that conditions will remain "fairly settled" until the weekend, but will then take a turn for the worse.

"Sunday is not going to be a nice day. It'll be cold and showery, particularly in the west and north-west, and some of those showers will be wintry," he said.

"It might leave a dusting of snow on the hills, but snow is not going to be a major factor as far as I can see for most (low-lying) places."

Warm and rainproof clothing will be needed for next week.

"In fact, potential storms are what would concern me next week, a bit like what we got last year.

dmc17

Wednesday could be lively on the West coast. If the storm comes, combined with reasonably high tides and big seas.

maquiladora

Thread title is a bit confusing. There is no sign of any storm for Sunday/Monday.

What we are looking at is the potential for windy/stormy conditions on Wednesday. 18Z GFS rolling out now so we'll see what that shows soon.

Oneiric 3

Just a couple of charts from this time last year to illustrate just how quickly lows can 'bomb' at this time of year.

Dec 4. Benign looking low west of Iceland with a cool, diverging air mass over Ireland after a weak front passed through the night before.



24 hour later, that innocuous looking depression had exploded by the time it reached S Scandinavia, with its central pressure having fallen more than 30 mb in that short time.




Images: Vedur.is

maquiladora

Not much change on the 18Z GFS. The main low is just too far north to have a significant impact here. Gusts of around 100-110km/h along the northwest coast. Fairly typical winter values for that area that you'd expect to see several times in a normal winter. Scotland being further north obviously gets it a bit stronger.

Still over 120 hours away so things could change quite a bit by Wednesday one way or the other.



Waves out at sea to our north look would be amazing though!

M.T. Cranium

Something rather unusual just happened in the past two days, an anomalously high pressure centre on the Russian side of the North Pole then was detached from the Siberian high by retrograde low pressure moving east along the arctic coast, and the breakoff high pushed across the pole to reinforce a weak Greenland high which is now about to interact with the first wave of low pressure involved in next week's complex storm evolution. I think the situation is rather volatile and the difference from last year's storm scenario is that much colder air is available to mix in.

The impacts of next week's stormy weather will therefore include snow on hills and severe conditions for livestock that are situated above 200m in the northern half of the country.

maquiladora

Tracking even further north on this mornings models.

maquiladora

06Z GFS is blowing the low up into a very powerful sub-925mb low off Greenland. I think there have been only 6 north Atlantic lows below 930mb observed in modern times.



As for here, winds don't look severe on the models at the moment, but it is a very large area of low pressure so it will stay windy for a much longer period of time than usual. 06Z GFS shows 80-90 km/h gusts starting on the west coast around 6am Tuesday and not dropping below those values again until 6pm Thursday.

Harps

A very wintry week ahead if the 6z is to be believed, the low stalls in the North Sea bringing persistent strong north westerlies for most of the week

Big changes compared to the 0z though so doubtful it's accurate

maquiladora

Surf's up.

maquiladora

And in animated form. :cool:



I expect there will be lots of surfers flying in to Ireland over the weekend to take advantage of this.

maquiladora

Early Met Office warning for Wednesday :
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1418169600&regionName=uk

Maybe a chance of a secondary low Thursday/Friday?

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Early Met Office warning for Wednesday :
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1418169600&regionName=uk

Maybe a chance of a secondary low Thursday/Friday?


thanks Maq. Any updates re any cold incursions?

YouTookMyName

Looking at air travel disruption?

maquiladora

12Z GFS. Gusts up to around 100 km/h on the northwest coast. Not too severe, yellow warning stuff.



12Z UKMO has the isobars a bit tighter. Gusts maybe closer to 120 km/h on this.



12Z GME has some fairy tight isobars.



Back at 76 hours, the hi-res ICON model is bringing this low down to a near record breaking sub-920mb near Greenland.



12Z GEM has a rapidly deepening second depression crossing Ireland and the UK Friday morning.

Scotty15

What are the chances of the secondary low effecting flights from Dublin to London on Friday evening ! Thanks

maquiladora

Scotty15 wrote: »

What are the chances of the secondary low effecting flights from Dublin to London on Friday evening ! Thanks

Impossible to say, too far away, very low probability at the moment.

maquiladora

No real surprises on the 18Z GFS. Still looking at max gusts of around 100 km/h on the west coast Wednesday.



Later then a secondary feature does pop up on this run but it's weak and tracking south, but still worth keeping an eye on.

maquiladora

The possible second low on Thursday/Friday has been picked up by the ECM and UKMO now, though the GFS doesn't really develop it.




Still a lot of uncertainty with that of course.

Pangea

Dont know what about Wednesday but suddenly got stormy here, wouldn't like to be out in it.

YouTookMyName

Pangea wrote: »

Dont know what about Wednesday but suddenly got stormy here, wouldn't like to be out in it.

Where's "here"

ninebeanrows

That low over the North Atlantic on Tuesday is set to go quite low.

Could bottom out near 935hPa

Iancar29

Lumi or pistolpetes11 ... could we have this thread and the potential snow showers thread merged as they are both being produced by the same system?

Trebor176

The ESB are reporting lightning and lightning related power outages in the Sligo/northwest area. That's according to their Twitter feed. Meanwhile, it's sunny, windy and cold in Dublin.

Trebor176

The ESB are reporting lightning and lightning related power outages in the Sligo/northwest area. That's according to their Twitter feed. Meanwhile, it's sunny, windy and cold in Dublin.

Irelandcool

anyone got information on the storm on friday that looks even more powerful given the fact the pressure is equal to that of category 3 hurricane but windspeed's be nice.

maquiladora

Wednesday within range of the higher res models now. Still looking like around 100 km/h gusts on northwest coasts, maybe 10% more on northern coasts. Looks fairly windy inland over the northern half of the country too though not severe.

Second depression Thur/Fri doesn't appear as evident on the latest models now.

maquiladora

Second low is back on the ECM again, but the GFS doesn't develop it, so still plenty of uncertainty.

Storm 10

Evelyn on this morning saying Wednesday will be a stormy day with damaging gusts

maquiladora

Wednesday. OPC charts. Would have been a significant event if the low had taken the more southerly track that the models were originally showing. Will still be pretty windy though with a big swell on the west coast.

ninebeanrows

Yes, the Thursday/Friday system certainly has potential to be quite troublesome..

Just one Ensemble member but shows what is possible.

Storm 10

Thanks to all the guys who post the charts, it never amazes me where ye get them, especially Maq who posts some great charts.

Hooter23

Storm 10 wrote: »

, it never amazes me where ye get them, .

Well it always amazes me:P:pac:

Irelandcool

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes, the Thursday/Friday system certainly has potential to be quite troublesome..

Just one Ensemble member but shows what is possible.

wouldn't this just be as powerful as cyclone darwin/tini from last february because it has the same air pressure as a category 3 hurricane. Although the isobars don't really give me accurate enough windspeeds

maquiladora

Irelandcool wrote: »

wouldn't this just be as powerful as cyclone darwin/tini from last february because it has the same air pressure as a category 3 hurricane. Although the isobars don't really give me accurate enough windspeeds

Central pressure in extratropical lows is not as indicative of intensity as it is with tropical systems. Small, deepening lows can pack more of a punch than mature lows with lower pressure. Last winter was a good example of that.

maquiladora

UKMO have put out an early warning now for the Thursday/Friday potential low covering NI, Wales and most of England.

Looking at the ECM ensembles+control at 96 hours, about 25 have a weaker low than the operational, 13 similar and 13 stronger. So a range of possibilities still.

ninebeanrows

EC maintains storm risk for overnight Thursday

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC maintains storm risk for overnight Thursday

Yep, GFS keeps it weak and south, ECM develops it more. Will be interesting once it gets within range of the hi-res models.

Edit: On closer inspection, that low is about 15-20mb weaker on the 12Z compared to the 0Z as it crosses Ireland.

80-90 kmh gusts look possible inland on Wednesday from the main low too.

Harry Palmr

What set up this conveyor belt?

maquiladora

Met Eireann wind warning is out for Wednesday now. Gusts to 110 km/h, in line with what the models have been showing the past couple of days.

Thursday/Friday still looking uncertain.

maquiladora

Wednesday :