Price Changes FPL 14/15 **Mod warning 1st post**

CSF

Markx wrote: »

I'm definitely not a casual and struck for Welbeck last night - my second transfer of the season. I've been playing FPL since the start and am amazed at the gnashing of teeth over the demise of the tracker sites. I understand where people are coming from but it doesn't upset me one bit, in fact I'm enjoying the chaos.

To me, this sole piece of information alone (I know nothing else about you as a player) would indicate a casual player.

dahat

Markx wrote: »

I'm definitely not a casual and struck for Welbeck last night - my second transfer of the season. I've been playing FPL since the start and am amazed at the gnashing of teeth over the demise of the tracker sites. I understand where people are coming from but it doesn't upset me one bit, in fact I'm enjoying the chaos.

You see there is no chaos, that's the point.

CSF

dahat wrote: »

You see there is no chaos, that's the point.

From what I can tell, he is referring to the fact that the people who would previously have had a massive value advantage by January, probably won't have as substantial one now, and will now have to win anyway with the reduced value team.

I can't see how anyone who takes the game seriously would view that as a good thing though.

FrClintPower

SlickRic wrote: »

logically, Welbeck was always going to go up.

He started from a low enough % of players who had him. since prices rises and drops are to do with the % a player goes up rather than purely quantity of transfers, he was always going to shoot up.

Rooney is still at 38% ownership so it's no surprise he's only gone down 0.1%.

I disagree that it's favouring casual players necessarily this year. If you're good, you can still get ahead of the curve.

using price sites does not equal a good player. It equals a smart player, in that you're using tools at your disposal, but it doesn't equal you being good.

even with price sites being flawed, the best players will still ultimately rise to the top.

I think rises are based purely on the number of net transfers in, while drops are based on percentages. Although it's hard to be sure what's going on at the moment.

Mint Sauce

Markx wrote: »

I'm definitely not a casual and struck for Welbeck last night - my second transfer of the season. I've been playing FPL since the start and am amazed at the gnashing of teeth over the demise of the tracker sites. I understand where people are coming from but it doesn't upset me one bit, in fact I'm enjoying the chaos.

I could have brought in Welbeck on Monday night, straight after the England game if I wanted to, and thats despite being in the middle of a Wildcard. Whilst I dont rate my self as a good FPL player, prehaps an average, I find myself tracking one or twp players I dont particular want, on here, FPL, and the tracker sites, incase they get another 0.1 rise so I make a profit.

The casual player could have jumped on the bandwagon, without thought on what could have happened on tuesday, wednesday, thursday, etc etc etc, up until resumption of the league on saturday.

I wouldn't call it chaos, but it certainly opens up things a little.

Dearg81

The FPL statistics site had Welbeck to rise if my memory serves me so they seem to be more reliable than the others. I think this season it will be more important to avoid price drops than catch price rises as it will be very diffiuclt to make that money back when it's lost.

Markx

CSF wrote: »

To me, this sole piece of information alone (I know nothing else about you as a player) would indicate a casual player.

I reckon most 'casual' players wouldn't get a striker with 2 points who has Man City as their next fixture.

I've played for 8 years and done OK. My strategy is to watch as many games as possible and try to buy players before they hit form based on their performances - like Lallana last year who I bought after Southampton played Liverpool away. For example if I notice a guy having shots but not scoring he's up for serious consideration.

Between price rise sites and advise sites its been easier for people to watch no games and do well. Hard as it may be to accept I am one person who takes the game seriously (logs in multiple times a day for tinkering) but is not too perturbed by the lack of clarity on FISO and TFPL.

CSF

Markx wrote: »

I reckon most 'casual' players wouldn't get a striker with 2 points who has Man City as their next fixture.

I've played for 8 years and done OK. My strategy is to watch as many games as possible and try to buy players before they hit form based on their performances - like Lallana last year who I bought after Southampton played Liverpool away. For example if I notice a guy having shots but not scoring he's up for serious consideration.

Between price rise sites and advise sites its been easier for people to watch no games and do well. Hard as it may be to accept I am one person who takes the game seriously (logs in multiple times a day for tinkering) but is not too perturbed by the lack of clarity on FISO and TFPL.

I didn't say you actually were a casual player. I know nothing about you, have never seen your scores, nor many of your posts. I was just commenting on your post.

You should care about the lack of clarity of FISO and TFPL, you absolutely should.

8-10

CSF wrote: »

I didn't say you actually were a casual player. I know nothing about you, have never seen your scores, nor many of your posts. I was just commenting on your post.

You should care about the lack of clarity of FISO and TFPL, you absolutely should.

I don't. I prefer it this way.

CSF

8-10 wrote: »

I don't. I prefer it this way.

You prefer not having an advantage over people who don't put much time into the game? I just don't understand.

8-10

CSF wrote: »

You prefer not having an advantage over people who don't put much time into the game? I just don't understand.

I prefer not making a transfer in haste because of a price rise/drop and instead wait for the pressers on a Friday. I also prefer anything that would make the game more competitive and encouraging for players to keep playing throughout the season

CSF

8-10 wrote: »

I prefer not making a transfer in haste because of a price rise/drop and instead wait for the pressers on a Friday. I also prefer anything that would make the game more competitive and encouraging for players to keep playing throughout the season

You don't have to make any transfer you don't want to. But at least you had the information to know exactly what your options were and make the best decision accordingly.

I can't see why you want the game to be more competitive, you should want to win and win lots of money in doing so. Essentially the difference between the casual and the serious player.

8-10

CSF wrote: »

I can't see why you want the game to be more competitive, you should want to win and win lots of money in doing so

I'm obviously not in any high-roller leagues like you are! Also I'm fine with being called a casual fan if that's what you like.

I still check the price websites every day but it's a surprise now to see who rose and fell. At the end of the day it's all a bit of craic no? I mean if you really want to be competitive you should be winning. No matter how good the people are on this forum there's still hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands ahead of you. Has anyone here actually come close to winning it?

The more players the better I say, and the less ghost teams after Christmas the better too!

CSF

8-10 wrote: »

I'm obviously not in any high-roller leagues like you are! Also I'm fine with being called a casual fan if that's what you like.

I still check the price websites every day but it's a surprise now to see who rose and fell. At the end of the day it's all a bit of craic no? I mean if you really want to be competitive you should be winning. No matter how good the people are on this forum there's still hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands ahead of you. Has anyone here actually come close to winning it?

The more players the better I say, and the less ghost teams after Christmas the better too!

I'm not calling you anything or insulting you in any way.

I'm nowhere near good enough to be winning the whole thing. I won all my money leagues last year totalling about 450 euro and a 50 euro Villa shop voucher, that is as much as someone like me can realistically hope for.

Would I achieved the same total score without the information? I'm sure I'd still have done well as I put alot of thought and work into the game in other ways, but I think its unquestionable that my points score wouldn't have been quite as high without that very expensive team I was able to put together at the end of the January wildcard.

8-10

CSF wrote: »

I'm not calling you anything or insulting you in any way.

I'm nowhere near good enough to be winning the whole thing. I won all my money leagues last year totalling about 450 euro and a 50 euro Villa shop voucher, that is as much as someone like me can realistically hope for.

Would I achieved the same total score without the information? I'm sure I'd still have done well as I put alot of thought and work into the game in other ways, but I think its unquestionable that my points score wouldn't have been quite as high without that very expensive team I was able to put together at the end of the January wildcard.

I obviously came off completely wrong! Didn't mean to sound defensive or insinuate you calling me casual, I'll openly admit that I'm casual if that's what not caring about prices makes me, that's all I meant.

What you hope for is winning your leagues, fine. I'd prefer more of a level playing field and more competitive teams for the whole season. Knowing the price rises/drops is not part of the game (remember it's a game) and if it is, FPL would have the stats themselves.

Lucas Hood

I kinda agree with 8-10 and I've spent longer than I'd like to admit studying the price changes. It'll make my league more competitive anyway.

CSF

I can't fathom that logic, I always assumed the reason people came on here to talk strategy was because they cared about winning, rather than having a competitive league.

Lucas Hood

CSF wrote: »

I can't fathom that logic, I always assumed the reason people came on here to talk strategy was because they cared about winning, rather than having a competitive league.

It's not always fun winning without a challenge.

CSF

Lucas Hood wrote: »

It's not always fun winning without a challenge.

There'll always be a challenge somewhere, you just have to come here to find it. For my money leagues I don't want a challenge, I want to maximise the amount of money I win.

8-10

CSF wrote: »

There'll always be a challenge somewhere, you just have to come here to find it. For my money leagues I don't want a challenge, I want to maximise the amount of money I win.

And I can't fathom that logic!

You're the yin to my yang

P.Walnuts

Over a 9 month period, a few hundred euro ( i'm guessing here) should only be a bonus, the achievement of beating your mates and getting a good global finish is my main motivation.

Putting all the time and energy into research and (disciplined) betting would be potentially far more profitable if it's money you're after imo

CSF

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Over a 9 month period, a few hundred euro ( i'm guessing here) should only be a bonus, the achievement of beating your mates and getting a good global finish is my main motivation.

Putting all the time and energy into research and (disciplined) betting would be potentially far more profitable if it's money you're after imo

Gambling you're betting with the stacked odds against you. Even on betfair.

P.Walnuts

CSF wrote: »

Gambling you're betting with the stacked odds against you. Even on betfair.

It's perfectly possible to turn a profit on football, not easy ( also not saying I am a particularly good gambler) but possible

CSF

P.Walnuts wrote: »

It's perfectly possible to turn a profit on football, not easy ( also not saying I am a particularly good gambler) but possible

Most things are possible in life. If you've the option to stick money in when the odds are in your favour, and when they're not, you should go with the first.

P.Walnuts

CSF wrote: »

Most things are possible in life. If you've the option to stick money in when the odds are in your favour, and when they're not, you should go with the first.

That's where time and effort into finding the right bet pays off

CSF

P.Walnuts wrote: »

That's where time and effort into finding the right bet pays off

You're missing the point. The price you get off the bookmaker is not the same as what you would get if you and me were to place a bet fair to us both.

P.Walnuts

CSF wrote: »

You're missing the point. The price you get off the bookmaker is not the same as what you would get if you and me were to place a bet fair to us both.

It's a fallacy to think that bookmakers get it right all the time, anyway we appear to differ on this so nothing to be gained by more discussion :pac:

CSF

P.Walnuts wrote: »

It's a fallacy to think that bookmakers get it right all the time, anyway we appear to differ on this so nothing to be gained by more discussion :pac:

I didn't suggest they get it right every time, I suggested they are operating with a statistical advantage from the get go making it very difficult in the long-term.

Fantasy Football, odds are proportionate to ability.

iroced

So. Welbeck rose. Was half-expecting it since he was due to rise on FISO for 2 days and I kind of "half-knew" that his elevated NTI over the last few days were not only due to WCers. His brace with England certainly helped. Also we're getting closer to the deadline and everyone wakes up to the game.
Decided not to bring him in though, despite being on WC. I'd have lost £0.1m on any of my striker to get him. Arsenal have 4 (well 3 + an in form team) tough fixtures coming. CL is going to start (and it's Dortmund away). And we haven't seen any minutes of Welbeck with his new team(mates). So I'm swallowing the promise of an expected success (with all the good ball suppliers in this midfield a £6.9m Welbeck sounds like a steal) and have him under my radar to jump on him if/when he shines...

8-10

CSF wrote: »

I didn't suggest they get it right every time, I suggested they are operating with a statistical advantage from the get go making it very difficult in the long-term.

Fantasy Football, odds are proportionate to ability.

PlayOn is what you're looking for I'd guess?