The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

maquiladora

SeaBreezes wrote: »

So... highest snowfall recorded at cork airport according to Met Eireann, was 1978.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/SnowfallAnal.pdf

And the OPI index was almost -2 then too... Certainly one to watch..

Feb 78. So you'd look at the OPI from 77 for that.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

For what it's worth, virtually all of the long range weather models are currently forecasting a mild winter.

Just as a matter of interest Maq, what were the long range weather models showing for winter 2009/2010 and 2010/2011?

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest Maq, what were the long range weather models showing for winter 2009/2010 and 2010/2011?

I can't really remember to be honest , I don't pay that much attention to them but I do remember the UK Met Office expected a mild winter in 2009.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

I can't really remember to be honest , I don't pay that much attention to them but I do remember the UK Met Office expected a mild winter in 2009.

Woohoo!! :-P let's hope that's a good omen for this year! ;-)

gilly0512

Cheers MT, every Winter without snow is a good one as far as I'm concerned, so I'm reasonably happy with that forecast.

Rock Lesnar

gilly2308 wrote: »

Cheers MT, every Winter without snow is a good one as far as I'm concerned, so I'm reasonably happy with that forecast.

Boooo, Down with this sort of thing.

HighLine

gilly2308 wrote: »

Cheers MT, every Winter without snow is a good one as far as I'm concerned, so I'm reasonably happy with that forecast.

Well perhaps go set up a "I hate snow thread" and go post in there and stop trolling this one.

M.T. Cranium

First signs of the Nov 2010 cold and snow were probably spotted around here in early November and there was quite a build up to that outbreak by about the 15th. The winter of 2009-10 was forecast to be cold by a few people including some clown on NW (me under another name), and that was based on pattern matching vaguely similar to this OPI concept.

Could remind people that 1-5 Nov 2010 was quite a mild period too, and the mean temperature for the month was sitting at about 8 C as late as the 12th or 13th before trailing off quite steadily.

So all of this current very mild weather means nothing much when considering the prospects for the coming winter. I'm not saying "no snow" anywhere, just snow that comes and goes. On a subjective scale I am looking for outbreaks about half as severe as Nov 2010 - Dec 2010 or even Jan 2010, but there's no way of fitting individual events to those trends even if accurate, one storm could turn out to be quite memorable even if its snow does not last on the ground for weeks afterwards as with (I think it was) 1-2 Feb 2009.

Kermit.de.frog

Aye MT, best threads ever in my opinion

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056090424


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056099054


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056100508

wexie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Aye MT, best threads ever in my opinion

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056090424


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056099054

Yup, I for one would very much welcome a return to those days.

Woodstore : Full
Coalstore : Full
Oiltank : Full
Freezer : Full
Pantry : Full
Anticipation : rising

pad199207

Would love to go back to Nov 2010!

But the recent run of mild winters especially last year has me gone off the cold!

I only want cold if it will guarantee snow!

I don't want cold and rainy damp sh**e ��

wexie

pad199207 wrote: »

Would love to go back to Nov 2010!

But the recent run of mild winters especially last year has me gone off the cold!

I only want cold if it will guarantee snow!

I don't want cold and rainy damp sh**e ��

Yeah cold and rain sucks.
Snow is great, black ice.....not so much

Lucreto

I would rather a heavy snowfall and it sticks around for 3 or 4 days and a slow melt. Once a few days the snow is less inviting with black dirty snow or the dreaded yellow snow from dogs.

Once it melts gets cold again and more snow.

I would love to witness a full day snow storm again like in 2010.

lapua20grain

The "S" word was mentioned in MT's forecast today. It begins

Cosmo Kramer

lapua20grain wrote: »

The "S" word was mentioned in MT's forecast today. It begins

Shleet?

(On higher ground)

ninebeanrows

First interesting charts appearing.

Potential height rises over Greenland. One to keep a close eye on especially with this OPI figure.

gilly0512

HighLine wrote: »

Well perhaps go set up a "I hate snow thread" and go post in there and stop trolling this one.

And what's your point pal, I didn't realise that this was a forum for snow lovers. Does it really bother you so much that I don't like snow, and pray tell me how not liking snow makes one a troll??

Mod note

If you have an issue with a post then report it and let the mods deal with it. Do not derail this thread by starting a personal argument!

Creative Juices

Weathercheck wrote: »

First interesting charts appearing.

Excuse my ignorance but where can I find these charts?

Blizzard 2010

The British Met Office has suggested that the first half of the winter will have a +ve NAO but the second half there are unsure of (Low Confidence) I certainly wouldnt like to be Met Eireanns shoes come next month. OPI negative is now a dead cert. Interesting how the winter particulary the first half pans out, My money is on snowfall before or at the end of November. I dont think it will last though

leahyl

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

The British Met Office has suggested that the first half of the winter will have a +ve NAO but the second half there are unsure of (Low Confidence) I certainly wouldnt like to be Met Eireanns shoes come next month. OPI negative is now a dead cert. Interesting how the winter particulary the first half pans out, My money is on snowfall before or at the end of November. I dont think it will last though

Ah you would really! It's dead exciting stuff;)

maquiladora

Creative Juices wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance but where can I find these charts?

Net Weather - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Weather Online - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

The Weather Outlook - http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Meteociel - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Wetterzentrale - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

DMI (Hirlam) - http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Wetter3 - http://www.wetter3.de/

Westwind - http://www.westwind.ch/

Weathercharts - http://www.weathercharts.org

MeteoCenter.eu (WRF) - http://www.meteocenter.eu/

hatrickpatrick

Does anyone know the current state of play with regard to stratospheric warming? Always a potential factor this time of year.

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Does anyone know the current state of play with regard to stratospheric warming? Always a potential factor this time of year.

Follow this thread.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/

Kermit.de.frog

A very positive ECM for coldies tonight in the medium term. Good potential for something a bit colder from the north or northeast but a lot of uncertainty as well.

ninebeanrows

Interesting EC again although Forecaster's assessment is for the jet to be too strong for anything but a transient ridge. One to keep an eye on though!

hatrickpatrick

That is yet another aspect to this I can't quite get my head around. Watching the models, every time you get northern high pressure it gets moved along by the next low pressure system - presumably because of the jet stream. However, the concept of a block is that the high pressure forces the jet stream to change course, not vice versa.

So what has to happen in order for the high pressure system to "beat" the jet stream, as opposed to the jet stream simply moving the system along?

Kermit.de.frog

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting EC again although Forecaster's assessment is for the jet to be too strong for anything but a transient ridge. One to keep an eye on though!

Are you in London now WC doing meteorology?

jack o shea

No chance of snow this winter, may as well accept it now.

maquiladora

jack o shea wrote: »

No chance of snow this winter, may as well accept it now.

cabledude

http://www.beat102103.com/news-and-sport/experts-issue-warning-about-the-worst-winter-in-a-century


Worst winter in a century just around the corned. 'Experts' in the UK have said so.