The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

You're in it!

Good good:)

hatrickpatrick

For those who want snow, how early should we start talking about SSW and looking for blocking in the west Atlantic?

emmetlego

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

For those who want snow, how early should we start talking about SSW and looking for blocking in the west Atlantic?

Mid November, anything before that is generally a waste of time… In my humble opinion!

icesnowfrost

Until it's 72 hrs out, i won believe it but I will always hope for it

Gonzo

just 4 weeks to go till the start of the roller-coaster! It has happened before then on rare occasions, we had lying snow here on 29th October 2008!

icesnowfrost

What do u make of exacta weather?
They are sticking to there guns on cold weather in the next 2 weeks with possible snow to UK and Ireland.

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

What do u make of exacta weather?
They are sticking to there guns on cold weather in the next 2 weeks with possible snow to UK and Ireland.

They are a complete joke. Predicted ice floes off the UK coast last winter.

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

They are a complete joke. Predicted ice floes off the UK coast last winter.

I was thinking they are a bit reckless with there forecasting.
However can u explain how good or bad a negative AO would benifit colder air dominating us in winter and help with our chances for snow.??

Blizzard 2010

The October Pattern Index has remained negative for the last 19 days and is unlikely to change, This may mean a negative AO and NAO. Only time will tell. Our Friends in Net Weather seem to think so anyway

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I was thinking they are a bit reckless with there forecasting.
However can u explain how good or bad a negative AO would benifit colder air dominating us in winter and help with our chances for snow.??

A negative AO can help with bringing cold air down from the arctic to lower latitudes. It doesn't guarantee cold for Ireland but it does make it more likely.

maquiladora

The OPI is now entering the the last 10 days of October. If 2013 is anything to go by, then there should be little change now until the end of the month, resulting in a final OPI value of something like -2.7 to -3.2.

This should be a major test of the OPI as it will be either the most negative or second most negative value since 1976 (as far back as they provide data for it).

A "fail" after such a strong signal will likely result in the OPI being quickly forgotten in the future, but if it's "right" then we could be on the road to a memorable winter. The only year that comes close to the current OPI value is 2009 (-3.15)

It's all a bit of fun, but it's interesting.

Creative Juices

maquiladora wrote: »

The OPI is now entering the the last 10 days of October. If 2013 is anything to go by, then there should be little change now until the end of the month, resulting in a final OPI value of something like -2.7 to -3.2.

This should be a major test of the OPI as it will be either the most negative or second most negative value since 1976 (as far back as they provide data for it).

A "fail" after such a strong signal will likely result in the OPI being quickly forgotten in the future, but if it's "right" then we could be on the road to a memorable winter. The only year that comes close to the current OPI value is 2009 (-3.15)

It's all a bit of fun, but it's interesting.

Was 1976 a memorable winter?

Iancar29

The Storm tonight will bring a nice dusting of snow to the higlands tomorrow by the looks of things

maquiladora

Creative Juices wrote: »

Was 1976 a memorable winter?

Not really, a bit before my time though There were some cold spells and in the UK the winter of 1976/77 was colder than average. OPI for 1976 was -1.75

Creative Juices

maquiladora wrote: »

Not really, a bit before my time though There were some cold spells and in the UK the winter of 1976/77 was colder than average. OPI for 1976 was -1.75

Oh sorry I read your post wrong. When you said "it will be either the most negative or second most negative value since 1976" I thought that was a very negative year.
Ok looking forward to seeing of the OPI is a reliable prediction source. I really want some decent snow on high ground this year.

maquiladora

Creative Juices wrote: »

Oh sorry I read your post wrong. When you said "it will be either the most negative or second most negative value since 1976" I thought that was a very negative year.
Ok looking forward to seeing of the OPI is a reliable prediction source. I really want some decent snow on high ground this year.

This show OPI vs. UK winter temperature anomalies. It seems when there is a strongly positive or negative OPI then the result is "better". Thats why this winter could be a big test. It's a pity the data is only back to 76 though.

gothwalk

maquiladora wrote: »

This show OPI vs. UK winter temperature anomalies.

That looks like a really high correlation - like, well above 0.8. Do you know if there's a model behind it, or if it's "just" correlation?

maquiladora

gothwalk wrote: »

That looks like a really high correlation - like, well above 0.8. Do you know if there's a model behind it, or if it's "just" correlation?

The exact details behind it haven't been released yet because the team behind it say they want to get a report peer reviewed before publishing, but there is a basic overview of it here : http://app.til.it/opi/Image/ENF.pdf

gozunda

maquiladora wrote: »

Not really, a bit before my time though There were some cold spells and in the UK the winter of 1976/77 was colder than average. OPI for 1976 was -1.75

Not 1976 but 1963 - 51st (?) anniversary of Geoffrey Jones seminal footage of the significant snowfalls of that year. Apologies for the absolute snow and train porn in the one offering

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl4pJwcE7JI

tylercollins

I think it's time this place became...

gilly0512

LordNorbury wrote: »

I love nothing more than heading up the Dublin Mountains and finding snow, it's just amazing to walk in it... Even if there isn't any at ground level...

I'm afraid the winters of 2009 and 2010 put me off snow for life, it may be lovely to look at, or walk in your case, but it's hell on earth trying to get to or from work in snow in this country. I commute from Kildare to Dublin every day, and during the aforementioned winters, it was talking three times as long to get into work or home in the evening, one time it even took me four hours to get from Newlands Cross to Newbridge. So you can keep your snow, every winter without snow is a great winter to me .

Iancar29

gilly2308 wrote: »

So you can keep your snow, every winter without snow is a great winter to me .

emmetlego

That won't be a popular view I'd bet!!! When I was a weun up north, our winters were much harsher, then again, the north always seems to get the better cold weather, couple of hundred miles can make all the difference

Iancar29

Iancar29 wrote: »

The Storm tonight will bring a nice dusting of snow to the higlands tomorrow by the looks of things

Annnnnnnnd the greens and pinks appear!

GavinH

Hi Guys,

It's been a while. I use to live on the weather forum praying for snow in the winter. Unfortunately it rarely worked. So I moved to Utah where snow is some of the best in the world. You would think that he excitement of it has waned since I left Ireland, but it certainly hasn't.

I hope the weather gods though will send some your way this year.

cheers

Gavin

Video

maquiladora wrote: »

This show OPI vs. UK winter temperature anomalies. It seems when there is a strongly positive or negative OPI then the result is "better". Thats why this winter could be a big test. It's a pity the data is only back to 76 though.

What do you mean this winter could be a big test? in regards to chances of snow ? or another constantly storm filled winter?

emmetlego

WRT chances of snow. It's negative anoms for October, has a high correlation for the rest of winter.

Wait and see, God spoke before man!!!

maquiladora

Video wrote: »

What do you mean this winter could be a big test? in regards to chances of snow ? or another constantly storm filled winter?

A test for the OPI, an experimental new index. If there is a strongly negative OPI without a corresponding negative AO this winter than I'd imagine a lot of people will be questioning it's usefulness for forecasting in the future.

hatrickpatrick

Is it ramping time yet?
No?
*goes back into hibernation*

emmetlego

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Is it ramping time yet?
No?
*goes back into hibernation*

Don't go too far… Some of the models starting to show high latitude blocking… Could be in for an early taste of winter if they come to fruition.