2015 NFL Draft

tripperman

HigginsJ wrote: »

It seems pretty nailed on that they will take Leonard Williams and pair him up with Jurrell Casey.

im allready dreading the sight of that pair rushing phillip rivers,

kev_s88

and Blake Bortles.....twice a season

HigginsJ

HigginsJ wrote: »

It seems pretty nailed on that they will take Leonard Williams and pair him up with Jurrell Casey.

how about williams/casey/suh all on the one line id hate to face that. constant pressure from a 3-4 line forcing double teams on all 3 and it would leave the linebackers pretty much unblocked unless they kept the tight end in every play

Deco99

225lbs bench press. Anyone ever not manage a rep or do really few?

Paully D

Deco99 wrote: »

225lbs bench press. Anyone ever not manage a rep or do really few?

Tyrann Mathieu of the Cardinals managed just 4 reps a couple of years ago. It lead many people to bring his work ethic into question even further as at the time there were red flags all over him. Mike Zimmer (then defensive coordinator of the Bengals and now Vikings head coach) said after it that he would be able to bench more than that!

Paully D

I'm off today and bored so thought I'd put together a (too early) mock draft which will no doubt change loads over the next couple of months. I've done 16 today and will try get the other 16 done at some stage over the weekend. I've also tried to include a bit of reasoning with each pick. Feel free to give any feedback or tear it apart lads! :pac:

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston

There's no question that the Buccaneers need a QB and that means their decision with the #1 pick is going to come down to Winston or Mariota. Reports from the combine suggest almost all scouts, execs etc think the Buccaneers will go with Winston here, and the word coming out from Tampa's GM putting Winston's well documented issues down to "immaturity" as opposed to being a bad character guy would lead one to think they're leaning the same way. IMO this isn't that tough of a decision. I'll go Winston over Mariota here for sure.

2) Tennessee Titans - Leonard Williams

Pound-for-pound, arguably the best player in the draft. Mettenberger has shown enough to be worth giving a full season to IMO, and I don't think Mariota is worth passing up on an exceptional defensive talent for given that Metternberger has shown flashes. The Titans give Dick LeBeau a fantastic welcoming present and allow him to give opposition co-ordinators fits by pairing Jurrell Casey with Williams.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Randy Gregory

Jaguars have gone offense for the last 4 years and 5 of the last 6 years in the draft, but they now switch tact and look to improve the defense. Dante Fowler, off the back of a monster combine performance, is a strong consideration here also but while Fowler will likely have a bigger day 1 impact, the Jaguars go for the player who IMO has the higher upside.

4) Oakland Raiders - Amari Cooper

Derek Carr was quite impressive as a rookie in Oakland and now the Raiders look to give him some help. Cooper does two things very well that will appeal - catches the ball well and finds himself open often. You could also see Cooper boosting Carr's stats quite a bit with his fantastic yards after the catch ability!

5) Washington Redskins - Dante Fowler

Brian Orakpo is done in Washington and thus a rusher is a need here. With highly-ranked Fowler and Beasley both still on the board it's not a reach to go with one of these either. A tough decision between the two, but Washington choose to bring in Fowler who's versatility, along with the fact he seems to be a very nice fit for their 3-4 defense, appeal in equal measure.

6) New York Jets - Marcus Mariota

I just don't see Geno Smith ever improving on looking like a franchise QB more than once in every 20 snaps. With a new regime coming into New York, I feel they'll want their own guy. While I do think Winston is the better choice between the two, Mariota is hardly a scrub either. Admittedly, one stat does frighten the life out of me if I'm the Jets here: snaps under center during 2014/2015 for Mariota? 5. However, Mariota is by all accounts a very, very smart guy who many think can adapt and I'm going to predict the Jets look to get the new regime underway with their own guy under center.

7) Chicago Bears - Danny Shelton

This seems to be a pretty consensus pick among all of the draft guys and I feel picking anyone else here would be just trying to be different for the sake of it. The Bears are moving to a 3-4 defense and a lot of their current personnel are ill equipped. Getting a true 3-4 NT in Danny Shelton in would help the transition a lot and be a nice starting point.

8) Atlanta Falcons - Vic Beasley

In all honesty, there's not a whole lot to say with regards to this pick. The Falcons are absolutely desperate for pass rushing and while new head coach Dan Quinn would prefer Dante Fowler here, beggars can't be choosers. He smashed the combine and has put on an extra 10 pounds which makes him more size appropriate. Not a bad consolation prize.

9) New York Giants - Shane Ray

The Giants are desperate for some playmakers on defense and Jason Pierre-Paul may not be back which makes this even more of a need. Ray has an extraordinary first step and buckets of athleticism. I think his explosiveness could get the Giants very excited.

10) St Louis Rams - Brandon Scherff

I really wanted to give the Rams Kevin White here, but thinking more logically, O-line is a bigger need. It's imperative that Bradford stays upright given his injury history, and now the Rams are going to try to do what they can to protect him. The Rams were reportedly all over him at the combine and this pick makes sense.

11) Minnesota Vikings - Kevin White

DeVante Parker would be a much better story here as it would mean Bridgewater linking up with his old Louisville receiver, but there's no time for sentiment. Kevin White is the better player and the Vikings need a #1 receiver. I can see Bridgewater and White becoming quite a duo (as I do with Carr and Cooper in Oakland as per this mock).

12) Cleveland Browns - DeVante Parker

After being looked over by the Vikings, DeVante Parker doesn't have to wait too long to get off the board as the Browns take him with the next pick. The current depth chart at WR is absolutely frightening viewing if you're a Browns fan and Parker's name on it would make nice reading and help in easing the pain of Josh Gordon's indefinite suspension. With another pick at #19, the Browns will be confident of filling another need at DT for example quite soon.

13) New Orleans Saints - La'el Collins

Everyone associated with the Saints must have hated watching the combine as it is the cause of their biggest need being unlikely to be filled in the first round as the top pass rushers who were projected to be available pre-combine at #13 are now off the board. Somehow Rob Ryan is still employed after last season, but the Saints now switch focus from defense and choose to take a player who may well be the best on their board at this point - OT La'el Collins. Brees needs to stop taking as much damage as he has of late and the Saints O-line isn't getting any younger. The Saints take the local kid, improving the talent level and lowering the age of their O-line.

14) Miami Dolphins - Trae Waynes

When you play Tom Brady twice a season you can always do with more DB help, but with Brent Grimes getting on a bit and a glaring need across from him, Waynes would actually turn a current Dolphins weakness into a possible strength. I find that CB's usually have the toughest adjustment period to the NFL, but Waynes size, physicality and length should lead him to be end up being a solid NFL corner IMO.

15) San Francisco 49ers - Dorial Green-Beckham

The toughest team I found to pick for in the first half of this mock as there's a new regime and they have quite a few needs. WR may be their biggest need however as Crabtree hits free agency and Boldin hits his mid-30's. I've seen this pick pop up a couple of times in various mocks and I like it a lot. Beckham is my #1 wide receiver and is only available here due to red flags IMO. However, the 49ers aren't afraid to take chances on character concerns and reports do suggest that he has taken big steps in turning his life around after influence from his older brother. I feel he'd be an excellent addition to that offense.

16) Houston Texans - Marcus Peters

A quite difficult one to pick due to questions over the CB, LB and S position which won't be answered until free agency, but at the moment I'm going to peg the Texans in for a corner. Disappointed not to get the chance to take Waynes here, the Texans go for Marcus Peters. Some off the field concerns, but if teams are comfortable then he's certainly a first round talent. Houston take a chance on a player with huge potential.

ChicagoJoe

My two top picks for draft QB's would be Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Brett Hundleyof UCLA. Mariota's immaturity concerns overshadow a pro-ready game that could blossom in the right system and his leadership skills and athleticism will lead several coaches to see his potential. Hundley is a wild card based on his athleticism and playmaking skills. He needs to show better accuracy in workouts, but his resume suggests he is a winner capable of leading a team as a starter.

ChicagoJoe

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

My two top picks for draft QB's would be Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Brett Hundleyof UCLA. Mariota's immaturity concerns overshadow a pro-ready game that could blossom in the right system and his leadership skills and athleticism will lead several coaches to see his potential. Hundley is a wild card based on his athleticism and playmaking skills. He needs to show better accuracy in workouts, but his resume suggests he is a winner capable of leading a team as a starter.

Why not winston?

frostie500

Mathew Red Climber wrote: »

Why not winston?

I'm sure he means Winston's immaturity overshadowing a pro-ready game. Personally if I was the Bucs I'd be more than willing to take a jump on Winston. The new CBA means that he isn't the financial risk that he was previously and if the Bucs load up his contract in years 2 and 3 they could cut ties pretty early if he acts the same as he did in FSU. His talent isn't in question and his on field leadership is fantastic, I'm hoping that he can grow up but maybe having a coach/GM that tells him to cop himself on is all that he needs. He was never really disciplined at FSU so that clearly would have played a big role in him continuously acting as he did (and that's not to underplay the allegations against him)

JaMarcusHustle

Not sure about the merits of having as one of your top 2 QBs a wildcard with questionable accuracy!

ChicagoJoe

Mathew Red Climber wrote: »

Why not winston?

He's got some pretty serious allegations against him, wouldn't be on my draft pick.

tripperman

titans having private workout day with mariota after his pro day, seems more likely to be picked at 2 if it goes well for him

tripperman

tripperman wrote: »

titans having private workout day with mariota after his pro day, seems more likely to be picked at 2 if it goes well for him

i dont know if it means anything they had to work him out even if they where going to trade back to generate buzz and show that they are interested

helimachoptor

I don't think we take him..

Knex*

helimachoptor wrote: »

I don't think we take him..

I don't think its smart to take him. Mettenberger was decent last year, and has a year pro experience behind him. Even if Mariota goes on to be better him, and he may well, I don't think Titans will regret drafting elsewhere.

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

I don't think we take him..

tell me would you prefer say two first rounders plus some later picks for him or rather get a guy like williams who could potentially anchor the defence?

helimachoptor

Mathew Red Climber wrote: »

tell me would you prefer say two first rounders plus some later picks for him or rather get a guy like williams who could potentially anchor the defence?

I'd prefer Williams, he is a game changer.
Him with casey should be very very disruptive.

While we need help in other areas we should be able to get that in FA and later in the draft

HigginsJ

Mathew Red Climber wrote: »

i dont know if it means anything they had to work him out even if they where going to trade back to generate buzz and show that they are interested

Mathew Red Climber wrote: »

tell me would you prefer say two first rounders plus some later picks for him or rather get a guy like williams who could potentially anchor the defence?

helimachoptor wrote: »

I'd prefer Williams, he is a game changer.
Him with casey should be very very disruptive.

While we need help in other areas we should be able to get that in FA and later in the draft

I agree, bringing him in has to be done if only to generate a possible trade. Could the Jets get nervy and trade up for him.

I would rather keep the pick and get Leonard Williams than end up down the draft without him even if I get a load of additional picks. Williams is the best prospect in the draft.

HigginsJ

Apparently Mariota had a poor pro day and will now fall in the draft. If it happens it is nice to see that teams have learned from Teddy Bridgewater last year!!

Pyjamarama

HigginsJ wrote: »

Apparently Mariota had a poor pro day and will now fall in the draft. If it happens it is nice to see that teams have learned from Teddy Bridgewater last year!!

He prob did it on purpose to join the philly ducks!!

nasty_crash

bad day or not - he is still the second best qb in the draft!! like maybe he shouldnt be a top 10 pick but because of titans, jets, bucs, and possibly eagles need for a qb i cant see him dropping that much!

They should learn from teddy last year - at one stage he was rated higher than bortles and manziel and dropped - and we all know how thats worked out over the season!! I dont think eagles will have the picks left to reach for mariota in the draft after the bradford deal! So i think jets could get him

Knex*

I still can't believe Bortels was taken at 3.

helimachoptor

a stat on leonard williams.

L. Williams= 3rd in TFL's for interior DL from last 2 draft classes combined. He played in 39 gms, 1. Donald & 2. Sutton played over 50 gms

kev_s88

Knex. wrote: »

I still can't believe Bortels was taken at 3.

Leave the Jags alone

tgdaly

kev_s88 wrote: »

Leave the Jags alone

Don't worry, they get Leonard Williams or Dante Fowler this year at 3

Paully D

Knex. wrote: »

I still can't believe Bortels was taken at 3.

Reading a book at the moment in which an analytics guy claims he has found what he argues is the most important statistic in judging the potential success of a college quarterback in the NFL - 3rd down completion rate. Obviously it's not the only thing but he feels it's extremely significant.

Matt Richer is his name. He started off working with the Seahawks and is doing bits and pieces for other teams now. Jimmy Clausen is the first example the book cites, with Richer pegging him as undraftable due to his 3rd down completion rate. On 1st down he was 74%, 69% on 2nd, yet only 52% on 3rd. In 2011 when Mayock and co had Gabbert ranked as the #1 QB over Newton, Richer again cited his 3rd down rate which was just 44%! Gabbert only faced 5 ranked opponents and threw 4 TD's/6 INT's against same. He claimed Bortles reminded him a lot of Gabbert which is ironic given that both play(ed) with the Jaguars. Bortles was 71% on first, 75% on second but only 54% on 3rd. In Bortles previous two seasons they only played 4 ranked opponents and in those games, he threw half of his 18 INT's.

He says "most of the top QB's drafted in the last number of years don't see a significant drop in their completion percentage on third down". For example, Russell Wilson went 71%, 71% and 75% on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down respective at Wisconsin. Bridgewater had a 68% completion rate on 3rd down. In 2014, he had Bridgewater as the only QB worthy of a 1st round grade, while he gave Manziel a 4th round grade and Bortles a 5th.

Funnily enough, another good story if you find this type of thing interesting, the Browns according to an ESPN reporter commissioned an advanced study on quarterbacks in the build up to the last draft which cost north of $100,000. The study analytically studied every QB who has played in the last 20 years and it concluded that the quarterback they should take was Teddy Bridgewater. On draft night Haslam received a forwarded text originally sent by Manziel to the Browns QB coach saying "hurry up and draft me so we can wreck this league together". Haslam's response? "Pull the trigger. We're trading up to get this guy".

Knex*

That's pretty fascinating. Cheers Paully!

Realt Dearg Sec

Paully D wrote: »

On draft night Haslam received a forwarded text originally sent by Manziel to the Browns QB coach saying "hurry up and draft me so we can wreck this league together".

Then straight after the draft pick was put in he got another text saying "sorry, *team together*, damn it autocorrect"

Paully D

Knex. wrote: »

That's pretty fascinating. Cheers Paully!

No problem mate. I agree, it's really fascinating. I love the whole analytics side of things and it's definitely a very useful tool but of course not the only one. Using this years group as an example, it obviously wouldn't take into account the fact you could count on one hand the number of snaps Mariota took from center, how good Winston was playing from behind etc.

It's interesting to see how this years crop fare with their 3rd down completion percentage. Unfortunately I can't find an overall rate, so I've had to split it into years and get the average (all stats taken from cfbstats.com), but it gives a bit of a picture anyway:

Winston 2013: 1st down - 66.1%, 2nd down - 70.3%, 3rd down - 64%
Winston 2014: 1st down - 70.1%, 2nd down - 64.8%, 3rd down - 57.3%
Winston AVG: 1st down - 68.1%, 2nd down - 67.5%, 3rd down - 60.6%

Mariota 2012: 1st down - 70.8%, 2nd down - 64.8%, 3rd down - 66.2%
Mariota 2013: 1st down - 62.7%, 2nd down - 66.4%, 3rd down - 59.3%
Mariota 2014: 1st down - 72.9%, 2nd down - 65.7%, 3rd down - 65.9%
Mariota AVG: 1st down - 68.8%, 2nd down - 65.6%, 3rd down - 63.8%

You'd probably like Winston's to be a little higher, but as mentioned it doesn't take into account things like how slowly he started games last year and how good he was on 3rd down in the 2nd half of games when trailing. It would also be nice to have an extra year of stats for Winston, but we can only work with what we have.

So how about the other, less talked about QB's? I'll have a look at Hundley, Petty, Grayson and Mannion.

Hundley 2012: 1st down - 69.6%, 2nd down - 71.8% , 3rd down - 57.9%
Hundley 2013: 1st down - 70.2%, 2nd down - 70%, 3rd down - 56.7%
Hundley 2014: 1st down - 69.7%, 2nd down - 69.9% , 3rd down - 65.9%
Hundley AVG: 1st down - 69.8%, 2nd down - 70.5%, 3rd down - 60.1%

Petty 2013: 1st down - 62.9%, 2nd down - 64.5%, 3rd down - 56%
Petty 2014: 1st down - 64%, 2nd down - 68.2%, 3rd down - 55.7%
Petty AVG: 1st down - 63.4%, 2nd down - 66.3%, 3rd down - 55.8%

* It's not really fair to include Grayson's 2012 as he didn't play many snaps.
Grayson 2013: 1st down - 62.1% , 2nd down - 68.9%, 3rd down - 53%
Grayson 2014: 1st down - 66.1%, 2nd down - 64.6%, 3rd down - 61.4%
Grayson AVG: 1st down - 64.1%, 2nd down - 66.75%, 3rd down - 57.2%

Mannion 2011: 1st down - 61.3%, 2nd down - 67.5%, 3rd down - 64.7%
Mannion 2012: 1st down - 69.7%, 2nd down - 65.1%, 3rd down - 56.8%
Mannion 2013: 1st down - 66.9%, 2nd down - 65.8%, 3rd down - 66.7%
Mannion 2014: 1st down - 68.2%, 2nd down - 55.9%, 3rd down - 61%
Mannion AVG: 1st down - 66.5%, 2nd down - 63.5%, 3rd down - 62.3%

So ranked in terms of overall 3rd down completion rate it goes 1) Mariota, 2) Mannion, 3) Winston, 4) Hundley, 5) Grayson and 6) Petty, but you'd struggle to find anyone willing to take Mannion over Winston. I certainly wouldn't admittedly, yet after looking at this it would urge me to go back over Mannion's tape and review it again, and that's where analytics can be advantageous.

It's also worth noting that our very own 'Eagle Eye' had Carr pegged in as the best QB in last years draft and right now the argument can, without question, be made for Carr. I believe he was championing Mannion as the best QB in this draft for quite a while so that's one I'll keep an eye on.

JCTO

Paully D wrote: »

It's also worth noting that our very own 'Eagle Eye' had Carr pegged in as the best QB in last years draft and right now the argument can, without question, be made for Carr. I believe he was championing Mannion as the best QB in this draft for quite a while so that's one I'll keep an eye on.

Excellent work Paully.

Just on Carr I would agree with EE to some extent Carr was one of the best given the class he was in. I will give him credit though he called it. But for me there is very little between Bridgewater and Carr right now when you break down their pro careers. Adding to that you have guys who have yet to be given a full chance. Jimmy Garoppolo for one. Think its been mentioned before but you really do have to give it at least 3 seasons before you can rate a QB draft class.

For me I thought Shane Carden might move up the Draft board but his performance in the Senior bowl hurt him. His 3rd down rate in 2014 was 65.1. With the Mariota and Winston you know they will be taken high no matter what but I think the value is with someone like Mannion because you know he will drop and probably find a team where he wont get thrown into the deep end.