Is Windows Phone Dying?

Fingleberries

_Puma_ wrote: »

At the moment ya but I'm really talking about is the move to Windows 9 and the rumours of the unification of the Phone and Desktop OS. Will Windows phone 8 go the way of WP7? Will they drop support for WP8 altogether(In my opinion highly likely).

I'm thinking 2 years down the line here before purchasing another smartphone.

It looks like the developer preview for WP9 (probably just called Windows) is coming in early 2015 and should be coming to all 8.x devices (even the Lumia 520), with some of the fancier features like split-screen multitasking coming to the larger screen devices.

Source: http://www.nokiapoweruser.com/2014/09/16/windows-phone-9-to-be-available-for-all-existing-windows-phone-8-devices-preview-in-january-2015/

beauf

vynce wrote: »

I think most people will agree that Windows phone has had a single major weakness stunting its growth; The fact that too many apps appear for just iPhone and Android.

That weakness will soon become its greatest strength, when Windows apps will run on all versions of Windows (9/Threshold), from desktop, across tablet and console, to phone.

Just my humble opinion though...

You need to have a wide user base to attract developers. I'm not sure how many will be interested in developing on a Microsoft platform if the user base is small and shrinking.

We'll wait and see.

MJohnston

_Puma_ wrote: »

At the moment ya but I'm really talking about is the move to Windows 9 and the rumours of the unification of the Phone and Desktop OS. Will Windows phone 8 go the way of WP7? Will they drop support for WP8 altogether(In my opinion highly likely).

I'm thinking 2 years down the line here before purchasing another smartphone.

I think what you mean by "drop support" is different from its actual meaning, if you're comparing to WP7. To clarify there is every indication that WP 8 devices will be fully able to run WP9 or whatever it gets called, because 8 is already sharing the same underlying core as the desktop OS. WP 7 to 8 was an incompatible upgrade for hardware reasons, but 8 to 9 will not be. And given how Microsoft are still essentially allowing 10 year old computers to install current versions of Windows, there's no reason they'd want to do anything different with mobile. What "drop support for" actually means is to stop providing critical software updates for older versions of software, and has nothing to do with abandoning hardware.

vynce

beauf wrote: »

You need to have a wide user base to attract developers. I'm not sure how many will be interested in developing on a Microsoft platform if the user base is small and shrinking.

We'll wait and see.

That's exactly the point I was trying to make... The issue with Windows phone has been the catch 22 of small user base > fewer apps > small user base...

Next year there will be no more Windows Phone but a One Windows across every device; Desktop, Console, Laptop, Tablet, Phone... This is when all of a sudden the user base of Windows on phones changes from 3rd by quite a distance to 1st by an even bigger distance and where it will become at least very difficult for Apple and Android to compete...

vynce

Small correction to what I just said: I meant to say that the "potential/indirect" user base of Windows on phones will take a huge leap when apps for Windows will also run on phones...

And again; just my personal opinion...

beauf

If you consider the surface tablet that can run current windows apps. They aren't exactly blazing success vs Android and Apple tables. They already have all the advantages you are taking about. People aren't exactly flocking to Windows 8.

I hear what your saying. But I wouldn't be betting my own money.

vynce

Sorry for posting another message, my edit button doesn't seem to want to work...

Elaborating: So far and still, an app for Windows Phone runs just on Windows Phone, which is (a lot) less than 20% of all smartphones.

Next year, that app will run on every Windows desktop, which is more than 90% of all Desktops, every Xbox (One?) console (a market where Apple and Android are not even in, yet), every Windows laptop and tablet and every Windows phone.

Of course developers will then still also make apps for IOS and Android, but potential reach of an app for Windows (phone) will then be much greater than that same app for IOS/Android.

Dyr

Remember there was big kerfuffle on reddit back when the xbone launcehd about microsoft shills?

vynce

beauf wrote: »

If you consider the surface tablet that can run current windows apps. They aren't exactly blazing success vs Android and Apple tables. They already have all the advantages you are taking about. People aren't exactly flocking to Windows 8.

I hear what your saying. But I wouldn't be betting my own money.

Same issue there really... There has been Surface (RT) and Surface Pro. Surface pro runs only regular Windows apps and couldn't compete with cheap Android tablets on price and Surface RT ran only RT apps which had the same catch 22 as Windows Phone.

Next year there will be many (cheap/affordable) Windows tablets that run the same apps as all other Windows devices.

vynce

Bambi wrote: »

Remember there was big kerfuffle on reddit back when the xbone launcehd about microsoft shills?

Not sure if you're talking about me, but I've stated very clearly that what I'm saying is just my personal opinion as a (mostly happy) user of Microsoft products. I'm not representing Microsoft when I give my personal opinion and I'm not receiving any incentive for sharing my opinion.

beauf

Surface RT is gone. The point remains. The Surface with regular windows hasn't taken off. It has all the advantages you are taking about.

I've little confidence in MS pulling this off. Look at the fiasco with Skype on Windows Phone. They are still producing their biggest selling phones with no front camera. I think they've lost touch with users.

_Kaiser_

vynce wrote: »

Same issue there really... There has been Surface (RT) and Surface Pro. Surface pro runs only regular Windows apps and couldn't compete with cheap Android tablets on price and Surface RT ran only RT apps which had the same catch 22 as Windows Phone.

Next year there will be many (cheap/affordable) Windows tablets that run the same apps as all other Windows devices.

Apps, not applications though - big and very important difference!

Unless Windows 9 is going to allow you to run Windows Applications on every device then all it will be really is extending the Windows Pro/RT Store to phones .. and seeing as that isn't working too well for them as it is (they had to pin it to the Taskbar in 8.1 to try and get it some attention) then I can't see it changing the game much.

The problem isn't a lack of apps or that they're missing big names anymore - it's that those apps don't work as well as their Android/IOS counterparts which is partly restricted functionality (MS restricting access to the OS?) and partly cosmetic limitations (as an OS, WP is clean, uncluttered and efficient - but as an environment to interact with apps though it's a little too stark)

Bottom line though is we're 4 years down the line with a pretty stagnant market share (it goes up a bit, goes down a bit but has yet to break double figures globally), split user base (fan boys and those who are getting tired of waiting), and mixed messages (or none at all) from MS and while WP has significantly improved in the last 18 months, it's still lagging in key areas and looks to be abandoned in favour of an environment that I'm not convinced will translate well to your phone.

liamog

wheresmybeaver wrote: »

My bad! Once you've gotten used to wireless charging it's very difficult to go back, so I'm glad it's on the 930, it means it's more likely to be included in future flagships too.

I found this comparison page for the Lumia 930 versus the Lumia 830.

It highlights a few reasons why the 930 doesn't really seem like a considerable update on the older x20 / x25 models; the 830 has a microSD slot, is thinner, lighter, removable battery etc. Note that this website has a few errors, eg about camera button, wireless charging etc but it's a handy way to compare the two phones all the same.

The Micro SD is something I forgot about, though I find 32gb phones have negated the requirement for me.

The denim firmware due before the end of the year will enable some new features but only for the Snapdragon 800 phones (930, ICON and 1520) the 20mp shooter on them is also very good and speedy.

I hear what you are saying about not feeling all that different, but I think we are getting to the point where phones are going to plateau, there's nothing I feel that the 1520 is lacking when I compare it to other devices (IOS, Android) so will be interesting to see where the next hardware innovations come from.

senordingdong

Well if the new W9 will run on your existing hardware, I imagine the existing RT units will be capable of running it too. That aught to put the RT problem to bed.

vynce

beauf wrote: »

Surface RT is gone. The point remains. The Surface with regular windows hasn't taken off. It has all the advantages you are taking about.

I've little confidence in MS pulling this off. Look at the fiasco with Skype on Windows Phone. They are still producing their biggest selling phones with no front camera. I think they've lost touch with users.

Of course you're completely entitled to your opinion but some of your statements are presented as facts and those statements are factually inaccurate.

beauf

senordingdong wrote: »

Well if the new W9 will run on your existing hardware, I imagine the existing RT units will be capable of running it too. That aught to put the RT problem to bed.

Windows RT devices are ARM though. Depends what MS decides to do with that

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2598372/windows-9-on-arm-could-kill-the-desktop-merge-windows-phone-and-windows-rt.html

vynce

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Apps, not applications though - big and very important difference!

Unless Windows 9 is going to allow you to run Windows Applications on every device then all it will be really is extending the Windows Pro/RT Store to phones ...

Excellent points! I don't know more about Threshold than what's been in the media so I will also have to wait and see. I don't know if it will already be technically possible (not to mention practical) to run full Windows applications on all devices with the upcoming Windows so, yes, I was talking about apps and not applications. Thank you for making that distinction!

beauf

[QUOTE=_Kaiser_;92249294...The problem isn't a lack of apps or that they're missing big names anymore - it's that those apps don't work as well as their Android/IOS counterparts which is partly restricted functionality (MS restricting access to the OS?) and partly cosmetic limitations (as an OS, WP is clean, uncluttered and efficient - but as an environment to interact with apps though it's a little too stark)...[/QUOTE]

Have to say I agree with that. Something as simple as a countdown timer doesn't work on WP due to the limitation on it running in the background. I've never had that problem on any other device. Things like a back button and its inconsistent behaviour in apps and the OS. Is infuriating.

beauf

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Bottom line though is we're 4 years down the line with a pretty stagnant market share (it goes up a bit, goes down a bit but has yet to break double figures globally), split user base (fan boys and those who are getting tired of waiting), and mixed messages (or none at all) from MS and while WP has significantly improved in the last 18 months, it's still lagging in key areas and looks to be abandoned in favour of an environment that I'm not convinced will translate well to your phone.

I think another problem is its really low price thats selling WP devices

While MS is throwing money at it, Is is ever going to be profitable enough to survive.

http://blog.markedup.com/2014/02/microsofts-surface-rt-150-price-drop-tripled-monthly-sales-volume-2013/

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2474337/tablets/windows-8-tablet-sales-show-real-life--windows-rt-tablets-hit-rock-bottom.html

http://www.neowin.net/news/adduplex-july-stats-lumia-630-and-windows-phone-81-are-winning

InTheTrees

So whats going to happen with Windows (Phone) 9?

My 2 year contract is up in november and right now I'm veering towards a 930.

When is W9 due out?

theothernt

InTheTrees wrote: »

So whats going to happen with Windows (Phone) 9? When is W9 due out?

Maybe March/April next year. We should hear more about the phone side of Windows 9 early next year.

MJohnston

InTheTrees wrote: »

So whats going to happen with Windows (Phone) 9?

My 2 year contract is up in november and right now I'm veering towards a 930.

When is W9 due out?

There's an announcement about W9 due on the 30th of September I believe, we should know more then. I'm entirely confident you'll be able to upgrade a 930 to it though.

theothernt

MJohnston wrote: »

There's an announcement about W9 due on the 30th of September I believe, we should know more then. I'm entirely confident you'll be able to upgrade a 930 to it though.

Yep, and it's all about the Enterprise... and I'd be surprised if the phone even gets a mention.

jimmynokia

Going forward i do not think MS cares about the mobile end of things.Its all about Enterprise and cloud.

I feel that they have destroyed what Nokia have built up,they built up the WP platform and now others are joining in and also new OEMs.

There is a need to speed up the updates,and more people to develop apps,local apps that is.Another app i thought i might mention is flipboard,i was in abu dhabi when they announced it and spoke to the devs,the code was written,its almost a year now and still not here but reportedly coming VERY soon.

With the Nokia branding finished now after the 730/735/830 i can't see any traction in WP gaining much more percentage worldwide,i doubt we will ever see double figures.Unless MS change their focus.....

Thats just my tuppence worth and been an avid fan.

senordingdong

jimmynokia wrote: »

Going forward i do not think MS cares about the mobile end of things.Its all about Enterprise and cloud.

I feel that they have destroyed what Nokia have built up,they built up the WP platform and now others are joining in and also new OEMs.

There is a need to speed up the updates,and more people to develop apps,local apps that is.Another app i thought i might mention is flipboard,i was in abu dhabi when they announced it and spoke to the devs,the code was written,its almost a year now and still not here but reportedly coming VERY soon.

With the Nokia branding finished now after the 730/735/830 i can't see any traction in WP gaining much more percentage worldwide,i doubt we will ever see double figures.Unless MS change their focus.....

Thats just my tuppence worth and been an avid fan.

Yeah, they appear to be bowing out of the mobile market but trying to look as though they are doing it on their terms.

But, correct me if I'm wrong, was this Nokia buy out only supposed to be for a few years?

CatInABox

senordingdong wrote: »

Yeah, they appear to be bowing out of the mobile market but trying to look as though they are doing it on their terms.

But, correct me if I'm wrong, was this Nokia buy out only supposed to be for a few years?

I don't think that they'd spend 7 billion on purchasing the Nokia mobile arm just to "bow out on their terms", not when they could just say they aren't supporting it any more.

Microsoft bought Nokia's mobile arm, and also brought rights to use the Nokia name for about 4 years I think. There's no real benefit to keeping the Nokia name on new phones, as eventually they will have to make the transition any way.

There won't be any mention of Windows Phone on the 30th, it is purely a Windows 9 event, and as theothernt stated, it's only an enterprise event as well.

senordingdong

CatInABox wrote: »

I don't think that they'd spend 7 billion on purchasing the Nokia mobile arm just to "bow out on their terms", not when they could just say they aren't supporting it any more.

Microsoft bought Nokia's mobile .

So what used to be Nokia will now manufacture phones witha Microsoft label on them?

theothernt

senordingdong wrote: »

So what used to be Nokia will now manufacture phones witha Microsoft label on them?

Basically, yes. MS bought Nokia's mobile division - ie. the people who design and manufacture the phone.

They can just stamp any name on the phones now, but obviously there is a lot of awareness of the Nokia name so it's being used, but will be phased out eventually.

senordingdong

theothernt wrote: »

Basically, yes. MS bought Nokia's mobile division - ie. the people who design and manufacture the phone.

They can just stamp any name on the phones now, but obviously there is a lot of awareness of the Nokia name so it's being used, but will be phased out eventually.

Seems strange to buy the Nokia name only to drop it. Surely MS could have opened their own phone manufacturing facility.

Fingleberries

senordingdong wrote: »

Seems strange to buy the Nokia name only to drop it. Surely MS could have opened their own phone manufacturing facility.

Very cost prohibitive.

For the cost in time and money of locating areas and building factories and hiring staff, then ironing out kinks in the process, they can buy an existing company with proven supply chain and fairly top hardware designers and utilise those.

(As we can see from the 13,000 let go earlier this year, Microsoft also cut loose anyone who was working on areas that were not directly related to the smartphone business ... Fairly heartless, but from an accounting perspective it puts them still ahead of the cost of setting up from scratch).