Ryanair To The USA

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

Why would you say that?
If their is 3 airline offering new york during the summer season, then why would I work?

Okay say I had 10 business seats with 200 economy.
Economy includes carry on with paid for entertainment.
20kg bags cost €50.

Because there's a limited market and absolutely all the existing product offerings blow your proposals out of the water in ways we haven't even begun to cover yet

Still, nobody is going to fly on an LCC grade of service when they can already get returns for massively under 500 that include everything you want to nickel and dime them for.

You'd need to have base fares - as in ones you're making a profit on, not your promotionals - of less than 300 return for people to consider it. Constantly. Redo your figures with that as your fare.

RahenyD5

It seems a rival may beat Ryanair to launch cheap flights to the US, there will be flights to NYC and LA with Norwegian but departing from Gatwick. These start in July.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/17/budget-airline-flights-gatwick-new-york-norwegian

If the price is reasonable then fly from DUB to LGW to catch a Norwegian flight on a cheap Ryanair ticket if you can, also allowing plenty of connecting time and be willing to put up with queues for US immigration (as UK has no preclearance), then why not?

L1011

RahenyD5 wrote: »

It seems a rival may beat Ryanair to launch cheap flights to the US, there will be flights to NYC and LA with Norwegian but departing from Gatwick. These start in July.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/17/budget-airline-flights-gatwick-new-york-norwegian

If the price is reasonable then fly from DUB to LGW to catch a Norwegian flight on a cheap Ryanair ticket if you can, also allowing plenty of connecting time and be willing to put up with queues for US immigration (as UK has no preclearance), then why not?

The chances of the price actually being cheap enough to cover the difference are close to nil anyway - due to UK APD. You're adding £80 instantly (£67 LGW-US and £13 LGW-IE on the way home) immediately.

If after all that it is cheaper, if saving €20 is worth adding probably 5 hours outbound and 3 or 4 inbound to your journey as well as adding the risk of being left stranded, I'd be worried about how low a value you put on your time!

Zonda999

Well there's no shortage of flights to LGW from DUB and there's also flights there from ORK and NOC.

It'll be interesting to see if any significant number of Irish passengers do . BY the time you add in those connecting flights with checked luggage, you can probably add about €100 to the fare ex LGW, as well as putting a price on the hassle and the lost time

wretcheddomain

Let's be realistic for a second. I can't think of anywhere in Europe outside of non-London-based English cities that would be priced €9.99 by Ryanair. If the prices in Europe are rarely if ever €9.99 for a reasonable journey then there's absolutely no reason to believe the flights to the US would be that price. To believe that hype is absurd to say the least, especially if you've ever travelled with Ryanair to anywhere in Europe that cost more than €20. You've already thought of an example so why should the US be any cheaper?

JCX BXC

wretcheddomain wrote: »

Let's be realistic for a second. I can't think of anywhere in Europe outside of non-London-based English cities that would be priced €9.99 by Ryanair. If the prices in Europe are rarely if ever €9.99 for a reasonable journey then there's absolutely no reason to believe the flights to the US would be that price. To believe that hype is absurd to say the least, especially if you've ever travelled with Ryanair to anywhere in Europe that cost more than €20. You've already thought of an example so why should the US be any cheaper?

Because ryanair said it would.

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

Because ryanair said it would.

O'Leary (as opposed to the corporate entity, who haven't said anything on it) also said he'd charge to use toilets and have standing sections. A lot of hot air comes out of that source.

Dublinflyer

I don't think SNN would be an option for this kind of TA service. As much as I hate to say it the connecting flights are simply not there, less than 25 inbounds landing there today. If you look at Aer Lingus's model for ta services it's al about the connecting flights now. and it is working out well for them so far. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see SNN get extra flights but it would be a very difficult market to enter given all the options available from Dublin.

relaxed

Carnacalla wrote: »

Because ryanair said it would.

You seem to place a lot of faith in what O'leary says, talk is cheap, O'leary says lots of things for the publicity and also might only be talking about the Atlantic while negotiating with Boeing on new plane orders.

He also promised blowjobs on his transatlantic offering, do you honestly expect that to be part of the service?

JCX BXC

relaxed wrote: »

You seem to place a lot of faith in what O'leary says, talk is cheap, O'leary says lots of things for the publicity and also might only be talking about the Atlantic while negotiating with Boeing on new plane orders.

He also promised blowjobs on his transatlantic offering, do you honestly expect that to be part of the service?

It was a joke, relax

Growler!!!

Dublinflyer wrote: »

I don't think SNN would be an option for this kind of TA service. As much as I hate to say it the connecting flights are simply not there, less than 25 inbounds landing there today. If you look at Aer Lingus's model for ta services it's al about the connecting flights now. and it is working out well for them so far. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see SNN get extra flights but it would be a very difficult market to enter given all the options available from Dublin.

Shannon is improving, step off any of the transatlantic flights today and you can get to Manchester or Birmingham flight within a few mins. Hang around for a little longer you can get to Bristol or Edinburgh or Heathrow. Not much but it gets you to the main areas of the uk.

JCX BXC

Growler!!! wrote: »

Shannon is improving, step off any of the transatlantic flights today and you can get to Manchester or Birmingham flight within a few mins. Hang around for a little longer you can get to Bristol or Edinburgh or Heathrow. Not much but it gets you to the main areas of the uk.

I agree.

If you got €300 return flights from SNN people would flood in, the main advantage being the pre clearence. Which in the case of flying into newark, works out cheaper

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

I agree.

If you got €300 return flights from SNN people would flood in, the main advantage being the pre clearence. Which in the case of flying into newark, works out cheaper

You can't provide €300 return flights profitably, though. And Aer Lingus are unlikely to provide any codeshare/interline arrangements with some random startup carrier - particularly not to Newark as United would have first dibs on doing it for there.

JCX BXC

MYOB wrote: »

You can't provide €300 return flights profitably, though. And Aer Lingus are unlikely to provide any codeshare/interline arrangements with some random startup carrier - particularly not to Newark as United would have first dibs on doing it for there.

Lease 3-4 737's they can get 8+ destinations twice a day.

And what can United do? €300 Is their 1 way fare.
And why Can't I make a profit off €300?
If not €300, why not €400?
Or do €250, but charge €80 for a return bag.

Dublinflyer

Growler!!! wrote: »

Shannon is improving, step off any of the transatlantic flights today and you can get to Manchester or Birmingham flight within a few mins. Hang around for a little longer you can get to Bristol or Edinburgh or Heathrow. Not much but it gets you to the main areas of the uk.

You have point there and who knows what extra flights will be there in a year or two. I would say a lot of people are going to look at overall TA performance for this summer and see ho things go as we have more choice than ever now.

JCX BXC

Dublinflyer wrote: »

You have point there and who knows what extra flights will be there in a year or two. I would say a lot of people are going to look at overall TA performance for this summer and see ho things go as we have more choice than ever now.

That M18 Road looks like it may start rebuilding soon.
The contract could be signed as soon as next week.
That would obviously help shannon due to the loss of galway airport.


Shannon airport is a very high quality airport, I have never heard a bad review.

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

Lease 3-4 737's they can get 8+ destinations twice a day.

And what can United do? €300 Is their 1 way fare.
And why Can't I make a profit off €300?
If not €300, why not €400?
Or do €250, but charge €80 for a return bag.

If you start providing your own feed you're now a network carrier and your exposure to risk is far higher. And hence your costs are now equal to other network carriers.

United would just wait for your airline to go bust leaving people stranded and swoop in as the saviour :pac:

"250 but 80 for a return bag" is 330. People don't fall for that any more. You won't make a profit on 330, or 400, or probably 500 even.

JCX BXC

MYOB wrote: »

If you start providing your own feed you're now a network carrier and your exposure to risk is far higher. And hence your costs are now equal to other network carriers.

United would just wait for your airline to go bust leaving people stranded and swoop in as the saviour :pac:

"250 but 80 for a return bag" is 330. People don't fall for that any more. You won't make a profit on 330, or 400, or probably 500 even.

But why not?
What high fees would drive me out?

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

But why not?
What high fees would drive me out?

Everything that was discussed last night - your back of a fag packet figures are out by multiple millions a year. Your shorthaul feed ops would also have trouble making money so you'd need to subsidise them; and you are going to have to provide guaranteed transfers with the risks of rebooking and accomodating people - all of which costs serious money. There is a reason LCCs don't offer guaranteed connections.

Despite O'Learys bluster, "fees" are very, very little of the cost of flights. Fuel, staff, insurance, aircraft are.

JCX BXC

MYOB wrote: »

Everything that was discussed last night - your back of a fag packet figures are out by multiple millions a year. Your shorthaul feed ops would also have trouble making money so you'd need to subsidise them; and you are going to have to provide guaranteed transfers with the risks of rebooking and accomodating people - all of which costs serious money. There is a reason LCCs don't offer guaranteed connections.

Despite O'Learys bluster, "fees" are very, very little of the cost of flights. Fuel, staff, insurance, aircraft are.

I realise that from my €15 million estimate for fuel last night, pilots for 1 plane cost about €1million, cabin crew about the same, no Idea about insurance.

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

I realise that from my €15 million estimate for fuel last night, pilots for 1 plane cost about €1million, cabin crew about the same, no Idea about insurance.

You had nowhere near enough pilots or cabin crew though.

JCX BXC

MYOB wrote: »

You had nowhere near enough pilots or cabin crew though.

Yeah it was a very basic calculation.

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

Yeah it was a very basic calculation.

Hence why the figures don't stand up.

If you could make money shuttling people across the Atlantic for 300 quid, someone would be doing it. Instead we've a litany of attempted long haul LCCs, all of which have failed woefully - and some of which were founded by proven success stories in aviation, e.g. AirAsiaX.

You can't make money at that price, you won't attract business passengers to fly in a business cabin of an otherwise third world LCC. TATL prices are already at near to the historic low and may actually be at that in real rather than nominal terms. You can book a return trip to most points east of the Rockies for an average weeks wages - with proper services and no nickel-and-diming.

billy few mates

Carnacalla wrote: »

I just spent 2 hours doing calculations on starting a new airline.
It would have 1 plane and would fly from snn to newark daily.

After setting up an office and paying all employees, buying a 757 plane and working out a fuel cost, I earned a profit of 4 million.

Them calculations were made with little experience.

I'd love to see those calculations....

relaxed

Carnacalla wrote: »

It was a joke, relax

We know it was a joke, but you are missing the point, you can't believe a word of spin from Michael O'Leary, so quoting spin as being some sort of reliable source will not give your arguments any weight.

relaxed

Carnacalla wrote: »

Yeah it was a very basic calculation.

You seem not to have included regular stuff like delayed flights, bad weather and plane breakdowns, which lead to the cost of putting people in hotel rooms, chartering planes, emergency repair costs etc. - stuff that adds up very quickly.

You are also forgetting the bigger curve balls like 9/11 incidents, ash clouds, gulf wars, oil spikes, currency spikes, major recessions - costs that need to be built into regular fares during the good times to cover for the bad times.

I am not sure what cash pile Aer lingus has at the moment but it's been ball park €500 million in recent years - enough to keep them flying for a Long time if oil went to $200 per barrel for example.

JCX BXC

relaxed wrote: »

You seem not to have included regular stuff like delayed flights, bad weather and plane breakdowns, which lead to the cost of putting people in hotel rooms, chartering planes, emergency repair costs etc. - stuff that adds up very quickly.

You are also forgetting the bigger curve balls like 9/11 incidents, ash clouds, gulf wars, oil spikes, currency spikes, major recessions - costs that need to be built into regular fares during the good times to cover for the bad times.

I am not sure what cash pile Aer lingus has at the moment but it's been ball park €500 million in recent years - enough to keep them flying for a Long time if oil went to $200 per barrel for example.

I put them into other.

Calina

Ultimately, I won't believe Ryanair are interested in long haul of any description until they allow transfers on their existing hubs. They could do a lot of interesting transiting via Stansted at least. They're not there yet.

My guess is the move of a couple of their flights to Zaventem and also to a couple of other mainline airports (think Madrid might be one) is with a view of picking up some transiting traffic but without the bells and whistles of through check in and related, initially, at least.

L1011

Carnacalla wrote: »

I put them into other.

Meaning your Other was under-allowed for by millions.

Calina

So...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JetMagic

And they weren't even trying to fly across the Atlantic.