new ICBF Proofs

blue5000

limo_100 wrote: »

see I'm the opposite i'v used a lot of ai this year will use a bit more I plan on cleaning up when they all cop on they have no 5star heifers i'll be there for the bidding wars that have already started by the way in the midlands

Will there be anybody left to sell them to? One 4 star and one 5 star maternal bull in the yard here, I was thinking of using BB ai for a few terminal cattle on the poorer BAx cows.

What bull were you using?

Limestone Cowboy

blue5000 wrote: »

The recorded sire might have been wrong, and now they have found it with the dna not matching ? So she is the same as a cow with an unknown sire.

Jasus lads we'll have to up our game if we want to fool the system now:eek: Fook em definitely not using ai this year now.

Ya I know what happened alright, feck all good to me though!

blue5000

Limestone Cowboy wrote: »

Ya I know what happened alright, feck all good to me though!

Genotype her yourself this year, you might find her sire if he was genotyped, worst case scenario the genotyping should give her a few stars anyway.

limo_100

blue5000 wrote: »

Will there be anybody left to sell them to? One 4 star and one 5 star maternal bull in the yard here, I was thinking of using BB ai for a few terminal cattle on the poorer BAx cows.

What bull were you using?

well your not to bad so our bull is only two stars, i have being using 3breeds ch lm si I have 19 bulled so far I have used in ch FSZ, LZF, and GEZ
Lm Zch, Zag, and in si I used Kez and Is4

Does anyone know when the tags will be sent out for this years genotype??

patsy_mccabe

blue5000 wrote: »

Had a quick look and everything I looked at all that has changed is the date, anybody else find any changes?

Yep, they just rubbed out the date and scribbled in a new one.

limo_100

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Yep, they just rubbed out the date and scribbled in a new one.

they didnt even update calving difficulty which should be expected I was watching that for the new ch bull ch2066 now I think i'll leave him off

Canaryblue

limo_100 wrote: »

well your not to bad so our bull is only two stars, i have being using 3breeds ch lm si I have 19 bulled so far I have used in ch FSZ, LZF, and GEZ
Lm Zch, Zag, and in si I used Kez and Is4

Are you using these 3 Charolais bulls to breed 4 and 5 star heifers? Its just I wouldn't be at all surprised if FSZ's replacement index turned out to be crap.

limo_100

Canaryblue wrote: »

Are you using these 3 Charolais bulls to breed 4 and 5 star heifers? Its just I wouldn't be at all surprised if FSZ's replacement index turned out to be crap.

I'm putting FSZ on to see what all the buzz is about and I put him on cows i'm not happy with so I can run them through a ring and the shapely FSZ will put hands in the air, I,v heard from a few the fiston daughters have lots of milk its there calving difficulty that could be an issue
and Im hoping that the other two hold up the only reason I used the is because there is suppose to be milking Lzf and Gez and there is not one ch bull with a proven replacement index I was going to use the new bull HHJ but the AI didn't stock him yet

Limestone Cowboy

blue5000 wrote: »

Genotype her yourself this year, you might find her sire if he was genotyped, worst case scenario the genotyping should give her a few stars anyway.

A neighbour bred her and her supposed father was burgers a few years ago. I'm not too bothered because I have more than enough anyway but it's showing up this scheme for the farce that it is. I have a chx cow here out of a neighbors bull that has no sire down for here. Calved at 18mths the first year because she stole the bull. Had a calf every year since and I can see her first 2 calves killed as u's at around 400kg carcass weight on icbf, she had the best heifer I had last year by a country mile and I got 990 for her calf at 6 months the year before, calves herself and is quiet. Probably the most profitable cow we have. Icbf Have all this information in their system, result=0 stars. There are thousands of the exact same case around the country and if icbf don't recognise them than how is this meant to be taken seriously. Rant over. P.s, anyone want to buy some 5 star maternal heifers with a half a star for milk cause I have loads of them. Face palm stuff!

blue5000

If you had the tag number of the bull you can put it in under 'update' AFAIK, it's the unknown sire that's giving her 0 stars.

Canaryblue

limo_100 wrote: »

Canaryblue wrote: »

Are you using these 3 Charolais bulls to breed 4 and 5 star heifers? Its just I wouldn't be at all surprised if FSZ's replacement index turned out to be crap.

I'm putting FSZ on to see what all the buzz is about and I put him on cows i'm not happy with so I can run them through a ring and the shapely FSZ will put hands in the air, I,v heard from a few the fiston daughters have lots of milk its there calving difficulty that could be an issue
and Im hoping that the other two hold up the only reason I used the is because there is suppose to be milking Lzf and Gez and there is not one ch bull with a proven replacement index I was going to use the new bull HHJ but the AI didn't stock him yet

If LZF takes after his sire then he should breed milk, however Indurain (Dams sire) had feck all milk.
Think HHJ should be a great bull, both his sire Vittoz and his dams sire Artois are performance tested in France, each have over 10,000 calves recorded. We've two purebred cows in calf to Vittoz, the first is due in June.

Bellview

it would have been nice if the ICBF gave the real reason for delay & told the truth. A little birdie tells me that the ICBF were looking at 4 different results for the same bull. there were huge variances with each metric and they varied wildly from Dec 15. This is a real concern as ICBF expect us to trust their stars and they don't even have a metric they can trust and believe in themselves.
Some breeds were seeing large declines in value v Dec. The Lim for example out of approx. 550 bulls, 300 are showing a decline since dec 15

we are expected to trust ICBF but my fears from the start of this program has been lack of transparency about how they calculate stars... and its continues. Before anyone gives me the ICBF answer on how they arrive at the stars... I understand this... its how they arrive at the start point is the concern

hopefully a legal case will be taken... especially if rumours are true.. this may also be reason for delay

Bellview

Canaryblue wrote: »

If LZF takes after his sire then he should breed milk, however Indurain (Dams sire) had feck all milk.
Think HHJ should be a great bull, both his sire Vittoz and his dams sire Artois are performance tested in France, each have over 10,000 calves recorded. We've two purebred cows in calf to Vittoz, the first is due in June.

depending on the metric FSZ has increased... depending on the one used he varies from 95 to 139.. Dec he was 100

Bellview

bogman_bass wrote: »

Not a hope of that happening. The computing power required would be massive

I'm sure one of the many datacenters in Ireland would have enough power...:D ICBF analytics capacity is not as big as they think they are... their issue is they can't agree on a consistent metric... if this was a private company they would be a head rolling...

patsy_mccabe

Bellview wrote: »

..... Some breeds were seeing large declines in value v Dec. The Lim for example out of approx. 550 bulls, 300 are showing a decline since dec 15....

Would that not be right though. On the law of averages, half should go up, half should go down.

blue5000

Bellview wrote: »

depending on the metric FSZ has increased... depending on the one used he varies from 95 to 139.. Dec he was 100

Tell us more Bellview, sounds like we'll all be dead and buried before we have a herd of 5 star cows

Bellview

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Would that not be right though. On the law of averages, half should go up, half should go down.

the problem statement that ICBF are not making public is they can't trust their own metrics.

1. there are 4 metrics that ICBF are looking at... these 4 are different to the DEc 15 one.. so there are really 5..
2. the values for every bull (same animal) is different for each way of measure...
3. the stars are supposed to drive consistency so why should half go up and half go down? I agree a number will move as new bulls come in etc, but the level of flux is crazy

if you take the Ch bull I mentioned in earlier post FSZ there are 5 maternal numbers for him
Dec 15 100
Apr 16 Non genomic 139
april 16 genomic 99
april 16 non genomic with milk 125
april 16 genomic with milk 95


There are 2 different terminal scores


using Dec 15 as start point this bull has improved in 2 scores and got worse in 2 scores... there is a 46 percent difference between the lowest & highest score for FSZ.. this might help explain why the proofs were not released..as 46% variance on the exact same animal just feels wrong

the real worry for the farmer now is impact this would have on your herd if ICBF selected the 95 metric v the 139 metric. this could be the difference between penalties and not.. but the guy pressing the buttons in ICBF will feel no pain

Bellview

blue5000 wrote: »

Tell us more Bellview, sounds like we'll all be dead and buried before we have a herd of 5 star cows

once icbf won't be the cause of it..

what my birdie tells me is Angus have scored wel... of the 400 odd bulls, less than 20 have declined in april. ZLL took a big drop but he is coming off a high numbers.

HE done ok as out of 400 bulls, 130 have declines

the real concern now though is what measure will ICBF arrive at next since this run has gone pear shaped

piece of me thinking about sharing the apr 16 file that the birdie sent.... but I don't want to get the birdie in doo doo

patsy_mccabe

Bellview, are you linked in some way to a breeding society?

Bellview

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Bellview, are you linked in some way to a breeding society?

yes I'm an ordinary member of one..not on any breed committees etc.. & I'm in the genomics scheme. I'm in Angus so honestly the april numbers for me are super. even my Nord cow & her daughters are at risk of going for 1 star to 3 ish... along with my few coney islands are at risk of becoming 4 stars from 2..

I always agree with stats... that is my day job... but the level of inconsistency in ICBF is crazy, we see this every cycle for bull proofs. so that ICBF have not updated the results means they are hiding something... and folks here could suffer

we can all quote bulls who started as stars, dropped like a stone and are now on the way back up... Coneyisland legend in Angus is going from 39 in Dec to between 74 & 92 using the april metrics.. he was a low as 20 in aug 2015 beef

I

Kovu

Bellview wrote: »

once icbf won't be the cause of it..

what my birdie tells me is Angus have scored wel... of the 400 odd bulls, less than 20 have declined in april. ZLL took a big drop but he is coming off a high numbers.

I'll soon be ready to believe the conspiracy theory that this whole scheme is to get us using non-continental breeds, leaving nice sized animals at the other end for the factories that can market them as He or AA beef. :pac:

tismesoitis

Bellview I have heard that the Limousin bill HCF dancer has shot up from 1 star maternal to a strong 5 star! Any truth in this??

Bellview

Kovu wrote:

I'll soon be ready to believe the conspiracy theory that this whole scheme is to get us using non-continental breeds, leaving nice sized animals at the other end for the factories that can market them as He or AA beef.

There are jex already claiming that market...

wiggy123

no harm it seems a mess..is there not a simpler/easier way to do this..
get star ratings?

tanko

I'm confused, are the figures they've put up today for April 2016 (which are exactly the same figures as December 2015 as far as i can see) the figures that are going to be left there until August?

wiggy123

think that's the case tanko.. no new figures until August time.... mind-field, regards farmers on what to use-to get there 5 star replacements.. if done right/easier method of providing bull stars-it should be a monthly thing..and by right the varieties in ratings+% should never increase/decrease hugely...

Nettleman

the info I think bellview is talking about is in first file linked here.
http://www.icbf.com/?page_id=2650
There are some crazy variances. LGL can go from €6 to €59, depending which way they decide to skin the pooch.
This is a right wee mess for the "experts" to dig themselves out of versus the BDGP targets, and the AI companies should have lots of fun doing up this years beef catalogue.

patsy_mccabe

Ah they'll have to publish the latest calving figures st least. These are fierce important for the AI Bulls especially for use on heifers.

wiggy123

who knows what there go to do patsy... I think they could be away in over there heads--re the workload/info to be collected etc.. is a massive task.. hopefully I am proven wrong

limo_100

I wouldn't be surprised if they started doctoring the figures which would be wrong but the reason i'm suspicious they might do that is because they said if your going to bull heifers bull the highest rated heifers that there figures are not gonna change much which goes against every proof i have ever seen, by the if that document is true ZBF is after comming up as a nice bull 25 to 93 Its hard to believe that he was a good popular bull and because icbf come up with figures because his sire was english he fell of the face of the earth