Good economic news thread

K-9

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

That's suggesting the tax burden (or lack of in a big chunk of cases) pre the crisis was correct.

What we are getting are vote winning tax cuts like removing 100's of thousands out of the tax net but no actual reform. A childcare tax credit for example would make far more sense.

draiochtanois

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newacc2015

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cantillon-does-ntma-move-mean-election-is-nigh-1.2386065

NTMA sold €1billion in 15 year bonds at a yield of 1.65% this week. Down from 1.81% last month on 15 year bonds. Its incredible considering it was nearly 5.6% yield on bonds in 2011.

fxotoole

newacc2015 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cantillon-does-ntma-move-mean-election-is-nigh-1.2386065

NTMA sold €1billion in 15 year bonds at a yield of 1.65% this week. Down from 1.81% last month on 15 year bonds. Its incredible considering it was nearly 5.6% yield on bonds in 2011.

Excuse my ignorance, but is a falling yield percentage a good thing?

ezra_pound

fxotoole wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, but is a falling yield percentage a good thing?

Yes. It means that Ireland pays less for its debt issuance.

realitykeeper

ezra_pound wrote: »

Yes. It means that Ireland pays less for its debt issuance.

Eventually investors will realize that the ECB will never end QE or raise interest rates. When that happens, the risk associated with European bonds will increase rapidly. That is when interest rates and inflation will take off.

newacc2015

realitykeeper wrote: »

Eventually investors will realize that the ECB will never end QE or raise interest rates. When that happens, the risk associated with European bonds will increase rapidly. That is when interest rates and inflation will take off.

European bonds are still some of, if not the safest bonds in the world. Investors cant store several trillion of bank notes in a warehouse in Manhattan or Frankfurt because Euro bonds are too risky. You have to put money elsewhere, They will invest in the least risky bonds. Euro bonds will continue to be the least risky bonds in the world. Whats the alternative? Russia bonds? Brazilian bonds(they are just about it be junk status)?

If inflation takes off, the ECB and most of Europe will be celebrating. The massive debt burden of Europe will be reduced. We wont have decades of stagnation like Japan.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1102/739082-car-sales-october-2015/


"although so far this year the number of LCV’s sold has risen by 43% to 22,848 units."

"however, HGV sales for the first ten months of the year are up 6%"

"For the year to the end of October the number of new car registrations has risen by 30% on last year, with 123,670 sales"

Good news all round both on the consumer side and on the business side.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1102/738968-investec-pmi/

Manufacturing output still growing!

Godge

Unemployment down again.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-continues-to-decline-as-economy-recovers-1.2415298

9.3%


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1103/739283-cso-unemployment/

Economy continuing on upward track, though not as fast.

BoJack Horseman

Godge wrote: »

Unemployment down again..

Interesting as anyone who has read Shinner doctrine, one of their corner stone policies is w*anking away €13-odd billion on a scheme to create 150,000 jobs.

Consecutive gains in employment have been recorded over the ten quarters to the middle of this year, with some 130,000 additional jobs created since the low-point reached in mid-2012

That target is more or less reached.... no need to spend €13bn on it.

AlmightyCushion

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Interesting as anyone who has read Shinner doctrine, one of their corner stone policies is w*anking away €13-odd billion on a scheme to create 150,000 jobs.

That target is more or less reached.... no need to spend €13bn on it.

Yeah, but those 130,000 jobs are clearly all down to jobsbridge and emigration. Rabble rabble rabble

Dave!

I persistently see people claim that the new jobs that are created are part-time, low paid and precarious.

Can anyone give any data on this? I don't know if the claim is that overall jobs in the economy are low paying, or if it's just the ones that have been created in the last few years that are. I don't buy the first claim – we have plenty of IT, pharma, financial services, etc, jobs that are well paid.

The second one to me seems more plausible, and makes sense because the retail sector has been experiencing a strong recovery in the last couple of years after having been decimated during the recession. Retail jobs are low paid and often part-time, shocker.

Would love to have some good data on this, because it's trotted out all the time.

AlmightyCushion

Dave! wrote: »

I persistently see people claim that the new jobs that are created are part-time, low paid and precarious.

Can anyone give any data on this? I don't know if the claim is that overall jobs in the economy are low paying, or if it's just the ones that have been created in the last few years that are. I don't buy the first claim – we have plenty of IT, pharma, financial services, etc, jobs that are well paid.

The second one to me seems more plausible, and makes sense because the retail sector has been experiencing a strong recovery in the last couple of years after having been decimated during the recession. Retail jobs are low paid and often part-time, shocker.

Would love to have some good data on this, because it's trotted out all the time.

I don't have a link to hand but I did see on that showed a high percentage of new jobs were full time. It never mentioned anything about pay though.

Edit: Found one.

The increase in total employment of 41,300 in the year to Q1 2015 was represented by an increase in full-time employment of 52,100 (+3.6%) and a decrease in part-time employment of 10,800 (-2.4%).

So not only were jobs created but people moved from part time to full time as well.

Godge

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I don't have a link to hand but I did see on that showed a high percentage of new jobs were full time. It never mentioned anything about pay though.

Edit: Found one.




So not only were jobs created but people moved from part time to full time as well.

It is quite often the case that when new jobs are part-time, they are replacing part-time workers who have moved to full-time work. If you were a shop/factory/business owner and needed more work, would you offer a new person full-time work before you offered one of your part-timers the opportunity to take up full-time work?

AlmightyCushion

Godge wrote: »

It is quite often the case that when new jobs are part-time, they are replacing part-time workers who have moved to full-time work. If you were a shop/factory/business owner and needed more work, would you offer a new person full-time work before you offered one of your part-timers the opportunity to take up full-time work?

Very true. There will also be people who get hours increased but are still part time. So whilst they haven't moved to full time they will be getting more money, paying more tax etc.

AlmightyCushion

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1103/739372-exchequer-figures/

Tax take is ahead of expectations. I assume they mean 7.4% and not 74% when talking about corporation tax.

Godge

More good news


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1105/739790-eu-commission/

"The Irish economy is expected to show very strong growth over the next two years, the European Commission said today in its latest economic forecasts.

After an estimated growth rate of 6% this year, the Commission said that Irish GDP is set to slow to 4.5% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017.

But these growth rates would still make Ireland the fastest growing euro zone country over the period."


We are even reducing our debt:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1105/739821-household-debt/


"Irish household debt fell to its lowest level since 2006 between during the second quarter of this year, and stood at €153.2bn or €33,056 per capita at the end of June."

draiochtanois

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Vizzy

Godge wrote: »

"Irish household debt fell to its lowest level since 2006 between during the second quarter of this year, and stood at €153.2bn or €33,056 per capita at the end of June."

Godge, what did the household debt stand at its height ?

JustTheOne

Funny how all the serial whingers doom and gloom merchants are never to be seen on this thread.

They actually hate positive news for the country as it undermines their ramblings.

Godge

Vizzy wrote: »

Godge, what did the household debt stand at its height ?

http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/summarychart/documents/ie_financial_statistics_summary_chart_pack.pdf


Here is a central bank link. Chart 8 is the relevant one.

As far as I can see, it peaked at around €200bn, 210% of GDP, incredibly high.

newacc2015

Godge wrote: »

We are even reducing our debt:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1105/739821-household-debt/


"Irish household debt fell to its lowest level since 2006 between during the second quarter of this year, and stood at €153.2bn or €33,056 per capita at the end of June."

This is generally used as an indicator of a lack of bank lending. Its not really a good sign if there is a constant reduction in debt levels.

BoJack Horseman

newacc2015 wrote: »

This is generally used as an indicator of a lack of bank lending. Its not really a good sign if there is a constant reduction in debt levels.

Total household debt is a common stick used by the doom mongers to beat the Irish recovery with.

If indeed banks are more responsible with their lending, then good.
If Irish people are being more financially prudent, then good.

Ireland clearly had too much debt, at all levels.
Reducing this to more normal levels is no bad thing.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1109/740624-oecd-outlook/


Good news for Ireland's prospects

"The OECD has said the economy here will continue its strong expansion over the next two years.

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development revised this year's Irish GDP growth figure upwards from the 5% it predicted in September, to 5.6%.

In its bi-annual economic outlook, the OECD also raised its forecast for 2016 up from 4% to 4.1% and predicted growth of 3.48% for 2017. "


This comes even though world trade is at worryingly low levels of growth:

"The organisation said global trade would grow by only 2% this year,a level it has fallen to only five times in the past five decades and that coincided with downturns - 1975, 1982-83, 2001 and 2009"


It seems we are bucking the trend by gaining market share.

BoJack Horseman

Godge wrote: »

This comes even though world trade is at worryingly low levels of growth:

"The organisation said global trade would grow by only 2% this year,a level it has fallen to only five times in the past five decades and that coincided with downturns - 1975, 1982-83, 2001 and 2009"


It seems we are bucking the trend by gaining market share.

it depends on how you measure it.

If its by monetary value then the 2% growth is understandable.

Nations selling oil & gas between each other os very obviously global trade.... if this halves in monetary value then its going to effect the bottom line globally....

Its only bad news if the world is trading less goods/services in a volume sense.

andrew

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

it depends on how you measure it.

If its by monetary value then the 2% growth is understandable.

Nations selling oil & gas between each other os very obviously global trade.... if this halves in monetary value then its going to effect the bottom line globally....

Its only bad news if the world is trading less goods/services in a volume sense.

See page 19. It's volumes.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1111/741064-apple-jobs-cork/

"Computer giant Apple has said it intends to expand its campus in Cork and provide space for 1,000 further staff by the middle of 2017.

An expansion on this scale would see the number of people directly employed by the company in Ireland increase to 6,000."

"Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation Richard Bruton said the announcements at Indeed.com and at Apple this morning showed the two sides of development in Ireland.

He said an environment has been created where ambitious companies found Ireland a location where they could grow their businesses.

The minister added that this has become a strong statement about the country, the sort of talent it grows and attracts and what can be built for the future. "


More good news.

draiochtanois

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fxotoole

draiochtanois wrote: »

Jobless rate under 9% for first time since 2008

Source RTE

How much of this is down to people doing training courses/work placement/jobbrisge type schemes?

I.e. If one were to look at the prsi/tax/usc take in conjunction with this figure what kind of picture would it paint?

Personally I'd say that there are more people moving into full time employment and looking at the prsi/usc/tax take would probably validate this.