Australia

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah War Command is the value between the two but the fact they are even considering sending him to France says enough about the horse. When did Ballydoyle last run a serious miler at Longchamp instead of Newmarket,Furner's Green, Excellent Art, Astronomer Royal, Aussie Rules not exactly an elite crop

Toormore is the outstanding value of the race at 7/1.

He's an unbeaten 122 rated horse, the highest rated horse that Hannon has ever sent to the 2,000 AFAIK and Hannon has hit the post in the Guineas with quite moderate horses in the past.

He's shown already that he's the type to relish a battle and keeps picking up at the end of a race. 7/1 is tasty...:)

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah War Command is the value between the two but the fact they are even considering sending him to France says enough about the horse. When did Ballydoyle last run a serious miler at Longchamp instead of Newmarket,Furner's Green, Excellent Art, Astronomer Royal, Aussie Rules not exactly an elite crop

You can flip that and ask what exactly is Australia showing at home then if they can 'afford' to send a horse like WC to France....
Take Australia out of the race (pretend he wasnt even born) and WC is a 4 or 5/1 shot tops as the Ballydoyle number 1.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

Toormore is the outstanding value of the race at 7/1.

He's an unbeaten 122 rated horse, the highest rated horse that Hannon has ever sent to the 2,000 AFAIK and Hannon has hit the post in the Guineas with quite moderate horses in the past.

He's shown already that he's the type to relish a battle and keeps picking up at the end of a race. 7/1 is tasty...:)

Maybe it's something unfashionable about Toormore that have people overlooking him. An Arakan colt owned by Middleham, if he were an Oasis Dream in the Juddmonte colours with that form he surely wouldn't be that big

Slattsy wrote: »

You can flip that and ask what exactly is Australia showing at home then if they can 'afford' to send a horse like WC to France....
Take Australia out of the race (pretend he wasnt even born) and WC is a 4 or 5/1 shot tops as the Ballydoyle number 1.

It's possible he just isn't that good, 20/1 for the Coventry, beaten seemingly with no excuses by Sudirman who is held by Toormore and that could be a poor Dewhurst he won. He already has his gr.1 for stud value, there is less to lose with him than Australia

BumperD

Theres a line of form between Kingman and Toormore. He has 5L to find but 7/1 looks fair for an ew play should something befall the favourite on the day (which is difficult to forsee given he's proven himself to be in rude health). Australia is a hype horse IMO. I cannot for the life of me, reading through his 3 races, understand why he's 2nd fav other than the war drums beating from co tipp. Wonder will he divert to the derby instead and skip the guineas?

Gregk961

tryfix wrote: »

Toormore is the outstanding value of the race at 7/1.

He's an unbeaten 122 rated horse, the highest rated horse that Hannon has ever sent to the 2,000 AFAIK and Hannon has hit the post in the Guineas with quite moderate horses in the past.

He's shown already that he's the type to relish a battle and keeps picking up at the end of a race. 7/1 is tasty...:)

Fully agreed, dont understand why people were so unimpressed with his first run he was never going to trounce them by 8L. Great price

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Maybe it's something unfashionable about Toormore that have people overlooking him. An Arakan colt owned by Middleham, if he were an Oasis Dream in the Juddmonte colours with that form he surely wouldn't be that big




It's possible he just isn't that good, 20/1 for the Coventry, beaten seemingly with no excuses by Sudirman who is held by Toormore and that could be a poor Dewhurst he won. He already has his gr.1 for stud value, there is less to lose with him than Australia

Maybe they want easy G1's for War Front??? Valid point.

You'd have to think WC wasnt right against Surdiman given what he did afterwards.

Beat Outstrip easy in the Dewhurst and that form gives WC the beating of Toormore, quite easily.

Slattsy

Also think WC is one of a few that will just love good to firm.

He's def interesting at NRNB when it goes live.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Maybe they want easy G1's for War Front??? Valid point.

You'd have to think WC wasnt right against Surdiman given what he did afterwards.

Beat Outstrip easy in the Dewhurst and that form gives WC the beating of Toormore, quite easily.

It's very difficult to say, because on another line through his stable mate Friendship Toormore easily has the beating of War Command and his rating would suggest that though it's obviously not that easy.


I'd love to see War Command be top class but I just can't help but imagine he won't be. The fact he was third choice and allowed go off at 20/1 for the Coventry says one thing even though visually he was very impressive, the form has repeatedly been let down. It's very easy to come out and say he wasn't right when he was beaten next time with Aidan blaming himself for the defeat, but even using Outstrip is shaky ground given he obviously didn't run up to form in the Dewhurst, given he supposedly had six pounds in hand of the second. His National Stakes win he beat a maiden winner who is unraced since and a 105 rated horse (albeit progressive) by three lengths.

I hope I'm wrong but could see him trying to pick up one of the uncompetitive gr.1s, maybe Longchamp before Ascot for the St James Palace which has been poor in recent years

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

It's very difficult to say, because on another line through his stable mate Friendship Toormore easily has the beating of War Command and his rating would suggest that though it's obviously not that easy.


I'd love to see War Command be top class but I just can't help but imagine he won't be. The fact he was third choice and allowed go off at 20/1 for the Coventry says one thing even though visually he was very impressive, the form has repeatedly been let down. It's very easy to come out and say he wasn't right when he was beaten next time with Aidan blaming himself for the defeat, but even using Outstrip is shaky ground given he obviously didn't run up to form in the Dewhurst, given he supposedly had six pounds in hand of the second. His National Stakes win he beat a maiden winner who is unraced since and a 105 rated horse (albeit progressive) by three lengths.

I hope I'm wrong but could see him trying to pick up one of the uncompetitive gr.1s, maybe Longchamp before Ascot for the St James Palace which has been poor in recent years

Really???
Friendship beaten 8 1/2 lengths by Toormore in National Stakes.
Friendship beaten 11 3/4 by WC in Dewhurst.

A lot of semantics involved in flat racing.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Maybe it's something unfashionable about Toormore that have people overlooking him. An Arakan colt owned by Middleham, if he were an Oasis Dream in the Juddmonte colours with that form he surely wouldn't be that big




It's possible he just isn't that good, 20/1 for the Coventry, beaten seemingly with no excuses by Sudirman who is held by Toormore and that could be a poor Dewhurst he won. He already has his gr.1 for stud value, there is less to lose with him than Australia

He gave The Grey Gatsby 110 a 7lb beating over a mile at Newmarket in the Craven, despite looking a little rusty and is largely overlooked. While Kingman gave Night Of Thunder 109 a 9lb beating over 7f at Newbury while his stable was on fire and is all of a sudden a sure thing over a mile on a different course a month later.

Not sure about War Command, on his day he's good, but Hannon has his measure with Toormore who is well ahead of his stablemate Anjaal beaten 3l in War Command's Dewhurst and who started at 16/1 and was well beaten in the Craven behind the even money favourite Toormore.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Really???
Friendship beaten 8 1/2 lengths by Toormore in National Stakes.
Friendship beaten 11 3/4 by WC in Dewhurst.

A lot of semantics involved in flat racing.

Friendship beaten five lengths in the Futurity stakes too. Very hard to say and I don't like to place too much emphasis on it

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Friendship beaten five lengths in the Futurity stakes too. Very hard to say and I don't like to place too much emphasis on it

Yet you brought it up.. so you place some emphasis on it.
For the record - WC gave 3lb and won doing handstands in the Futurity.

NaiveMelodies

The Outstrip angle would be preferable for me.. whom I actually wouldn't mind backing at a price as he clearly relishes the mile.

Kingman far too short for such a race.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Yet you brought it up.. so you place some emphasis on it.
For the record - WC gave 3lb and won doing handstands in the Futurity.

No I didn't. I merely said he was beaten by Sudirman that was readily held by Toormore after, that was a fact you began saying he had the beating of Toormore through outstrip. These six degrees of seperation aren't something I like to get overly caught in.


He beat a maiden winner by three lengths comfortably not in a manner that would take my breath away. Again we'll see but I'd say he is odds against to turn up at Newmarket from recent reports, though I hope I'm wrong.

tryfix

Well you wouldn't want War Command coming at your horse coming up to the line at Newmarket, or be trying to pass a tough horse like Toormore and then there's Kingston Hill 120 who's not to be sniffed at if he turns up and Australia who could be anything as well as the speedy Kingman. Then there's Outstrip and a few other decent types. It'll be the best 2,000 Guineas in years if most of them turn up.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

No I didn't. I merely said he was beaten by Sudirman that was readily held by Toormore after, that was a fact you began saying he had the beating of Toormore through outstrip. These six degrees of seperation aren't something I like to get overly caught in.


He beat a maiden winner by three lengths comfortably not in a manner that would take my breath away. Again we'll see but I'd say he is odds against to turn up at Newmarket from recent reports, though I hope I'm wrong.

I never mentioned the Friendship angle. You did.
Read your quote above again ....
How can you start your post 'No I didnt' is beyond silly.

The Outstrip angle is relevant. He does have the beating of Toormore through those form lines. Read laterally.
And also through the form lines through Friendship, as you mentioned above.

Going back to my earlier point, WC as things stand is the value bet. Once bookies go NRNB. Which makes Australia very interesting if they can allow WC go to France.
Kingman doesnt want good to firm - Gosden practically said he wont run him on it.
Toormore has never raced on anything better than good, worth noting that. Only outstayed TGG lto who had him trouble!!

Slattsy

tryfix wrote: »

Well you wouldn't want War Command coming at your horse coming up to the line at Newmarket, or be trying to pass a tough horse like Toormore and then there's Kingston Hill 120 who's not to be sniffed at if he turns up and Australia who could be anything as well as the speedy Kingman. Then there's Outstrip and a few other decent types. It'll be the best 2,000 Guineas in years if most of them turn up.

How to rate Kingston Hill given what he did to the The Grey Gatsby in the Racing Post after TGG finishing so close to Toormore.
TGG close form with Outstrip.
Outstrip has form with Toormore.

Serious lines there. Zig zags everywhere!! And WC comes out on top in my book atm.

UrbanSea

Yeah the Friendship one after you'd already mentioned Outstrip. I'm not getting into a tit for tat over something so pedantic given I've already said I don't place such emphasis on it, never mind going from two to three.

''Beyond silly'', a fine use of hyperbole there.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah the Friendship one after you'd already mentioned Outstrip. I'm not getting into a tit for tat over something so pedantic given I've already said I don't place such emphasis on it, never mind going from two to three.

''Beyond silly'', a fine use of hyperbole there.

Run along now and let the adults talk.

UrbanSea

Wouldn't expect a reasonably intelligent response anyway.

UrbanSea

Very different trial but Master Carpenter runs again Friday

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

How to rate Kingston Hill given what he did to the The Grey Gatsby in the Racing Post after TGG finishing so close to Toormore.
TGG close form with Outstrip.
Outstrip has form with Toormore.

Serious lines there. Zig zags everywhere!! And WC comes out on top in my book atm.

It's fairly safe to put a line through The Grey Gatsby's Racing Post Trophy run due to the soft ground or whatever holding him back. Otherwise you'd have to give Kingston Hill 132 for his 24lb beating of him in the RPT. Kingston Hill's OR of 120 is good enough for rating him, those handicappers know their stuff within reason, but it's soft ground form.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Wouldn't expect a reasonably intelligent response anyway.

Was charged with hyperbole. No point fighting it so may aswell add to your case!

Slattsy

Fwiw there wasn't one thing I said that could be classed as hyperbole.

Slattsy

tryfix wrote: »

It's fairly safe to put a line through The Grey Gatsby's Racing Post Trophy run due to the soft ground or whatever holding him back. Otherwise you'd have to give Kingston Hill 132 for his 24lb beating of him in the RPT. Kingston Hill's OR of 120 is good enough for rating him, those handicappers know their stuff within reason, but it's soft ground form.

So is plenty of Toormores.

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

So is plenty of Toormores.

Toormore's recent form is on good ground. His Craven win slow by 0.23 seconds. His National Stakes win fast by 0.83. His earlier wins were on slightly slower ground at slow by 3 seconds. He handles good ground well.

Kingston Hill's RPT win was slow by 8.83 seconds.

NewApproach

Slattsy, you say you'll be interested in backing WC once bookies go NRNB. What sort of price will you be expecting?

NewApproach

tryfix wrote: »

Toormore's recent form is on good ground. His Craven win slow by 0.23 seconds. His National Stakes win fast by 0.83. His earlier wins were on slightly slower ground at slow by 3 seconds. He handles good ground well.

Kingston Hill's RPT win was slow by 8.83 seconds.

This is not how to analyse time. Slow by 0.23 seconds compared to what exactly?

Slattsy

NewApproach wrote: »

Slattsy, you say you'll be interested in backing WC once bookies go NRNB. What sort of price will you be expecting?

Expect it drop maybe 2 points from current odds.

tryfix

NewApproach wrote: »

This is not how to analyse time. Slow by 0.23 seconds compared to what exactly?

Standard time for the distance of a race at that track. I think it's based on something like the time a 100 rated 3yo should take to run the distance carrying 9 stone on good ground or something similar. Good ground naturally produces faster run races than soft ground.

Toormore's National Stakes win was faster than standard, it was one of only 2 races that day at the Curragh that were faster than standard and it was the fastest than standard race that day. So given that he was a 2yo and carrying 9 stone 3lb it was a pretty good performance on the clock.