Australia

plasteritup

Guy I know down my way,shrewd lad with lots of contacts has been throwing money at the bookies for this horse to win the derby
2000 guineas and the arc??? Don't know enough about flat racing myself to judge or disect this bet.

del roy

Plaster

A guy I work with has a €5 e/w lucky 15

welsh national: mountainous 25/1 won
grand national: alfie sherrin 25/1
2000 guineas: austrailia 7/1
1000 guineas: tapestery 8/1
world cup: argentina 7/1

Nulty

del roy wrote: »

Plaster

A guy I work with has a €5 e/w lucky 15

welsh national: mountainous 25/1 won
grand national: alfie sherrin 25/1
2000 guineas: austrailia 7/1
1000 guineas: tapestery 8/1
world cup: argentina 7/1

where did he get 25/1 about Alfie Sherrin? It would have been hard to find a price that short about him at any stage!

the groutch

del roy wrote: »

Plaster

A guy I work with has a €5 e/w lucky 15

welsh national: mountainous 25/1 won
grand national: alfie sherrin 25/1
2000 guineas: austrailia 7/1
1000 guineas: tapestery 8/1
world cup: argentina 7/1

Lucky 15 with 5 selections? :pac:

del roy

sorry meant to say lucky 31.

Think alfie was a drifter since he put the bet on, I think I seen it at 33s a few weeks ago.

sting60

Australia will be a big lay for me.Poorly bred and over hyped and beat nothing yet to suggest he should be below double figures for any classic.Will just add he is a terrible looking horse.

triggerharvey

sting60 wrote: »

Australia will be a big lay for me.Poorly bred and over hyped and beat nothing yet to suggest he should be below double figures for any classic.Will just add he is a terrible looking horse.

poorly bred ? by galileo out of quija board

RichieLawlor

sting60 wrote: »

Australia will be a big lay for me. Poorly bredand over hyped and beat nothing yet to suggest he should be below double figures for any classic.Will just add he is a terrible looking horse.

Lol. You actually haven't a notion or you are trolling

kiers47

Probably the best bred 3yo in training. Surely trolling.

UrbanSea

The best bred three yea old won the 1000 guineas trial yesterday. He is very exciting but is very short

sting60

Australia is far from been well bred based on what Quija Board has thrown so far.Voodoo Prince by Kingmambo rated 95 at best,Aeqaeus by Monson terrible and failed to win a race on turf but won two small all weather races and Filia Regina by Galileo a total shocker rated at best 65.Because Quija Board was a brilliant filly/mare does not mean she is a good dam.Before you post back about his form do some homework and dont make a complete fool of yourself again.

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

The best bred three yea old won the 1000 guineas trial yesterday. Big difference in dams .

kiers47

UrbanSea wrote: »

The best bred three yea old won the 1000 guineas trial yesterday. He is very exciting but is very short

Well maybe my statement was tongue in cheek. But he certainly isn't poorly bred.

UrbanSea

Ah I know but I can see where sting is coming from. People get very excited when a great race mare goes to stud but not many live up to their racing exploits and I had my doubts about Australia given how his siblings had done but he looks by far the best of them. Cape Cross wouldn't inspire me as a brood mare sire, Kingmambo one I always look out for, especially given both Camelot and Ruler of the World's dams were by him

Colonel Sanders

What's Ouija Board's pedigree like? Think she was a half sister to a hurdler (Spectrometer?)

Cape Cross was standing cheaply enough when her dam was covered to IIRC

sting60

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

What's Ouija Board's pedigree like? Think she was a half sister to a hurdler (Spectrometer?)

Cape Cross was standing cheaply enough when her dam was covered to IIRC

Well done.

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ah I know but I can see where sting is coming from. People get very excited when a great race mare goes to stud but not many live up to their racing exploits and I had my doubts about Australia given how his siblings had done but he looks by far the best of them. Cape Cross wouldn't inspire me as a brood mare sire, Kingmambo one I always look out for, especially given both Camelot and Ruler of the World's dams were by him

No, he is a shocking looking horse IMO.

tryfix

sting60 wrote: »

No, he is a shocking looking horse IMO.

As a two year old and his mother was no looker. Handsome is as handsome does. He's one of those plain looking chestnut Galileo's, like Ruler Of The World. I'm a huge fan of this horse and really hope he stays sound.

I wouldn't be worrying about anything other than his ability to run, soundness and ability to battle ( which is what class really is ).

Can't see him being tripped up by his pedigree with the engine that he's got. A 6l winner from the well thought of Free Eagle and Kingfisher beaten 9 1/2l in third went on to finish 3 3/4 behind the Royal Lodge winner in his next race. That's serious form particularly the way he just mowed Free Eagle the 2/5F down with his run. That was a class showing.

I don't like the hype, but O'Brien running a Derby prospect with solid 2yo form in the Guineas has produced the likes of Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey.

Don't see him as a Guineas type and would see it as a prep race that they'd hope he would run well in on his way to the Derby. He's light on class points in his pedigree for the Derby, but his stamina balance is perfect for it.

Would love to see him run in a top 10F race, that strikes me as his ideal trip, although 12f will be no bother to him.

NewApproach

kiers47 wrote: »

Probably the best bred 3yo in training. Surely trolling.

What a ridiculous statement. He's very far from the best bred 3yo in training. Good race mares don't necessarily make good broodmares, and Ouija Board's pedigree isn't extraordinary by any means.

kiers47

NewApproach wrote: »

What a ridiculous statement. He's very far from the best bred 3yo in training. Good race mares don't necessarily make good broodmares, and Ouija Board's pedigree isn't extraordinary by any means.

I corrected myself soon after.. Is more or less backlash to lads saying he had a poor pedigree. Which is hardly the case.

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

As a two year old and his mother was no looker. Handsome is as handsome does. He's one of those plain looking chestnut Galileo's, like Ruler Of The World. I'm a huge fan of this horse and really hope he stays sound.

I wouldn't be worrying about anything other than his ability to run, soundness and ability to battle ( which is what class really is ).

Can't see him being tripped up by his pedigree with the engine that he's got. A 6l winner from the well thought of Free Eagle and Kingfisher beaten 9 1/2l in third went on to finish 3 3/4 behind the Royal Lodge winner in his next race. That's serious form particularly the way he just mowed Free Eagle the 2/5F down with his run. That was a class showing.

I don't like the hype, but O'Brien running a Derby prospect with solid 2yo form in the Guineas has produced the likes of Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey.

Don't see him as a Guineas type and would see it as a prep race that they'd hope he would run well in on his way to the Derby. He's light on class points in his pedigree for the Derby, but his stamina balance is perfect for it.

Would love to see him run in a top 10F race, that strikes me as his ideal trip, although 12f will be no bother to him.

Love reading your posts on the flat horses.

plasteritup

Word I'm getting.is there going for the 3 of these races and expecting it to go close,I'm having a dabble on it this weekend anyhow,didn't o brief say he is the best horse he's had in the yard since istabraq?

Gregk961

plasteritup wrote: »

Word I'm getting.is there going for the 3 of these races and expecting it to go close,I'm having a dabble on it this weekend anyhow,didn't o brief say he is the best horse he's had in the yard since istabraq?

Pure hype talk that. He cant possibly believe that, and im certain ive heard that out of O'brien countless times. At any rate the 5/2 is not at all appealing for the 2000.

Looking forward to seeing Toormoor in his prep race

sting60

For all the posters here who sent me private messages calling me everything under the sun about his form.He beat Free Eagle of Welds BY 6l when Pat Smullen said after the race he was going to pull him up he felt so bad.Weld Said later "A very serious lung infection was found,he is very poor".Last week Smullen said "god he was a sick horse after that race,but is now coming on big time".

tryfix

sting60 wrote: »

For all the posters here who sent me private messages calling me everything under the sun about his form.He beat Free Eagle of Welds BY 6l when Pat Smullen said after the race he was going to pull him up he felt so bad.Weld Said later "A very serious lung infection was found,he is very poor".Last week Smullen said "god he was a sick horse after that race,but is now coming on big time".

It's strange that this horse has people falling out over it already. The odds of him not being a superstar are stacked in your favour and the value on him for the classics is well gone, but visually and on collateral form I was very impressed by his performance at Leopardstown. Can't for the life of me see a very sick nearly going to be pulled up Free Eagle performance in the race. I was a big fan of Free Eagle before the race, which is probably why Australia's win blew me away. Anyway the race is above and I'm happy enough with the form and time of it. He only needs to improve 3-4lb on his 117 OR to win a Derby.

He's not flashy and they have the likes of the proven War Command in the stable, so he must be showing up well at home to be getting the nod for Newmarket.

razorhead

Chatting a guy who saw the back of Australia and he wouldn't have him at all, but keep an eye on Free Eagle later in the year!!! take from it what you may....

Gringo180

Think they should avoid the Guineas with Australia and go for a Derby trial instead, cant see him beating Gosden's Kingman who looks to be a superstar in the making.

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Think they should avoid the Guineas with Australia and go for a Derby trial instead, cant see him beating Gosden's Kingman who looks to be a superstar in the making.

He looks in reasonable form in this gallop, definitely not a beautiful horse, but there's a solid tough look about him.

I'm not 100% convinced that the form of the placed horses in Kingman's Greenham win makes him an even money favourite for the 2,000 Guineas. It was jaw dropping, but it was only a trial and Kingman hasn't run over a mile yet.

There are 5 GP1 winning Juveniles still left in the race and O'Brien's much hyped Australia. There's plenty of value about that makes taking on Kingman worth a shot, just in case he's not quite a second Frankel.

Slattsy

Kingman beat a sprinter lto (good time i'll admit) and tree's behind the sprinter.
Kingman wont run on good to firm.
Evens?? You're having a fúcking laugh.

Wouldnt be backing Australia at 3/1 mind you, but have him bigger

War Command look value to me right now.

BumperD

Unless there's some accident or unforeseen setback, I cannot see anything getting close to Kingman. I'm not one to be backing favourites in these classics but his performance the last day was striking, and in a different league to anything shown to date by those lined up against him. I'm not convinced by Australia, despite the war drums beating loudly from co tipp. He's not for me but if I'm proved wrong, so be it. If kingman is Evens come NRNB, I will be backing him.

UrbanSea

Yeah War Command is the value between the two but the fact they are even considering sending him to France says enough about the horse. When did Ballydoyle last run a serious miler at Longchamp instead of Newmarket,Furner's Green, Excellent Art, Astronomer Royal, Aussie Rules not exactly an elite crop

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah War Command is the value between the two but the fact they are even considering sending him to France says enough about the horse. When did Ballydoyle last run a serious miler at Longchamp instead of Newmarket,Furner's Green, Excellent Art, Astronomer Royal, Aussie Rules not exactly an elite crop

Toormore is the outstanding value of the race at 7/1.

He's an unbeaten 122 rated horse, the highest rated horse that Hannon has ever sent to the 2,000 AFAIK and Hannon has hit the post in the Guineas with quite moderate horses in the past.

He's shown already that he's the type to relish a battle and keeps picking up at the end of a race. 7/1 is tasty...:)

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah War Command is the value between the two but the fact they are even considering sending him to France says enough about the horse. When did Ballydoyle last run a serious miler at Longchamp instead of Newmarket,Furner's Green, Excellent Art, Astronomer Royal, Aussie Rules not exactly an elite crop

You can flip that and ask what exactly is Australia showing at home then if they can 'afford' to send a horse like WC to France....
Take Australia out of the race (pretend he wasnt even born) and WC is a 4 or 5/1 shot tops as the Ballydoyle number 1.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

Toormore is the outstanding value of the race at 7/1.

He's an unbeaten 122 rated horse, the highest rated horse that Hannon has ever sent to the 2,000 AFAIK and Hannon has hit the post in the Guineas with quite moderate horses in the past.

He's shown already that he's the type to relish a battle and keeps picking up at the end of a race. 7/1 is tasty...:)

Maybe it's something unfashionable about Toormore that have people overlooking him. An Arakan colt owned by Middleham, if he were an Oasis Dream in the Juddmonte colours with that form he surely wouldn't be that big

Slattsy wrote: »

You can flip that and ask what exactly is Australia showing at home then if they can 'afford' to send a horse like WC to France....
Take Australia out of the race (pretend he wasnt even born) and WC is a 4 or 5/1 shot tops as the Ballydoyle number 1.

It's possible he just isn't that good, 20/1 for the Coventry, beaten seemingly with no excuses by Sudirman who is held by Toormore and that could be a poor Dewhurst he won. He already has his gr.1 for stud value, there is less to lose with him than Australia

BumperD

Theres a line of form between Kingman and Toormore. He has 5L to find but 7/1 looks fair for an ew play should something befall the favourite on the day (which is difficult to forsee given he's proven himself to be in rude health). Australia is a hype horse IMO. I cannot for the life of me, reading through his 3 races, understand why he's 2nd fav other than the war drums beating from co tipp. Wonder will he divert to the derby instead and skip the guineas?

Gregk961

tryfix wrote: »

Toormore is the outstanding value of the race at 7/1.

He's an unbeaten 122 rated horse, the highest rated horse that Hannon has ever sent to the 2,000 AFAIK and Hannon has hit the post in the Guineas with quite moderate horses in the past.

He's shown already that he's the type to relish a battle and keeps picking up at the end of a race. 7/1 is tasty...:)

Fully agreed, dont understand why people were so unimpressed with his first run he was never going to trounce them by 8L. Great price

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Maybe it's something unfashionable about Toormore that have people overlooking him. An Arakan colt owned by Middleham, if he were an Oasis Dream in the Juddmonte colours with that form he surely wouldn't be that big




It's possible he just isn't that good, 20/1 for the Coventry, beaten seemingly with no excuses by Sudirman who is held by Toormore and that could be a poor Dewhurst he won. He already has his gr.1 for stud value, there is less to lose with him than Australia

Maybe they want easy G1's for War Front??? Valid point.

You'd have to think WC wasnt right against Surdiman given what he did afterwards.

Beat Outstrip easy in the Dewhurst and that form gives WC the beating of Toormore, quite easily.

Slattsy

Also think WC is one of a few that will just love good to firm.

He's def interesting at NRNB when it goes live.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Maybe they want easy G1's for War Front??? Valid point.

You'd have to think WC wasnt right against Surdiman given what he did afterwards.

Beat Outstrip easy in the Dewhurst and that form gives WC the beating of Toormore, quite easily.

It's very difficult to say, because on another line through his stable mate Friendship Toormore easily has the beating of War Command and his rating would suggest that though it's obviously not that easy.


I'd love to see War Command be top class but I just can't help but imagine he won't be. The fact he was third choice and allowed go off at 20/1 for the Coventry says one thing even though visually he was very impressive, the form has repeatedly been let down. It's very easy to come out and say he wasn't right when he was beaten next time with Aidan blaming himself for the defeat, but even using Outstrip is shaky ground given he obviously didn't run up to form in the Dewhurst, given he supposedly had six pounds in hand of the second. His National Stakes win he beat a maiden winner who is unraced since and a 105 rated horse (albeit progressive) by three lengths.

I hope I'm wrong but could see him trying to pick up one of the uncompetitive gr.1s, maybe Longchamp before Ascot for the St James Palace which has been poor in recent years

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

It's very difficult to say, because on another line through his stable mate Friendship Toormore easily has the beating of War Command and his rating would suggest that though it's obviously not that easy.


I'd love to see War Command be top class but I just can't help but imagine he won't be. The fact he was third choice and allowed go off at 20/1 for the Coventry says one thing even though visually he was very impressive, the form has repeatedly been let down. It's very easy to come out and say he wasn't right when he was beaten next time with Aidan blaming himself for the defeat, but even using Outstrip is shaky ground given he obviously didn't run up to form in the Dewhurst, given he supposedly had six pounds in hand of the second. His National Stakes win he beat a maiden winner who is unraced since and a 105 rated horse (albeit progressive) by three lengths.

I hope I'm wrong but could see him trying to pick up one of the uncompetitive gr.1s, maybe Longchamp before Ascot for the St James Palace which has been poor in recent years

Really???
Friendship beaten 8 1/2 lengths by Toormore in National Stakes.
Friendship beaten 11 3/4 by WC in Dewhurst.

A lot of semantics involved in flat racing.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Maybe it's something unfashionable about Toormore that have people overlooking him. An Arakan colt owned by Middleham, if he were an Oasis Dream in the Juddmonte colours with that form he surely wouldn't be that big




It's possible he just isn't that good, 20/1 for the Coventry, beaten seemingly with no excuses by Sudirman who is held by Toormore and that could be a poor Dewhurst he won. He already has his gr.1 for stud value, there is less to lose with him than Australia

He gave The Grey Gatsby 110 a 7lb beating over a mile at Newmarket in the Craven, despite looking a little rusty and is largely overlooked. While Kingman gave Night Of Thunder 109 a 9lb beating over 7f at Newbury while his stable was on fire and is all of a sudden a sure thing over a mile on a different course a month later.

Not sure about War Command, on his day he's good, but Hannon has his measure with Toormore who is well ahead of his stablemate Anjaal beaten 3l in War Command's Dewhurst and who started at 16/1 and was well beaten in the Craven behind the even money favourite Toormore.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Really???
Friendship beaten 8 1/2 lengths by Toormore in National Stakes.
Friendship beaten 11 3/4 by WC in Dewhurst.

A lot of semantics involved in flat racing.

Friendship beaten five lengths in the Futurity stakes too. Very hard to say and I don't like to place too much emphasis on it

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Friendship beaten five lengths in the Futurity stakes too. Very hard to say and I don't like to place too much emphasis on it

Yet you brought it up.. so you place some emphasis on it.
For the record - WC gave 3lb and won doing handstands in the Futurity.

NaiveMelodies

The Outstrip angle would be preferable for me.. whom I actually wouldn't mind backing at a price as he clearly relishes the mile.

Kingman far too short for such a race.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Yet you brought it up.. so you place some emphasis on it.
For the record - WC gave 3lb and won doing handstands in the Futurity.

No I didn't. I merely said he was beaten by Sudirman that was readily held by Toormore after, that was a fact you began saying he had the beating of Toormore through outstrip. These six degrees of seperation aren't something I like to get overly caught in.


He beat a maiden winner by three lengths comfortably not in a manner that would take my breath away. Again we'll see but I'd say he is odds against to turn up at Newmarket from recent reports, though I hope I'm wrong.

tryfix

Well you wouldn't want War Command coming at your horse coming up to the line at Newmarket, or be trying to pass a tough horse like Toormore and then there's Kingston Hill 120 who's not to be sniffed at if he turns up and Australia who could be anything as well as the speedy Kingman. Then there's Outstrip and a few other decent types. It'll be the best 2,000 Guineas in years if most of them turn up.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

No I didn't. I merely said he was beaten by Sudirman that was readily held by Toormore after, that was a fact you began saying he had the beating of Toormore through outstrip. These six degrees of seperation aren't something I like to get overly caught in.


He beat a maiden winner by three lengths comfortably not in a manner that would take my breath away. Again we'll see but I'd say he is odds against to turn up at Newmarket from recent reports, though I hope I'm wrong.

I never mentioned the Friendship angle. You did.
Read your quote above again ....
How can you start your post 'No I didnt' is beyond silly.

The Outstrip angle is relevant. He does have the beating of Toormore through those form lines. Read laterally.
And also through the form lines through Friendship, as you mentioned above.

Going back to my earlier point, WC as things stand is the value bet. Once bookies go NRNB. Which makes Australia very interesting if they can allow WC go to France.
Kingman doesnt want good to firm - Gosden practically said he wont run him on it.
Toormore has never raced on anything better than good, worth noting that. Only outstayed TGG lto who had him trouble!!

Slattsy

tryfix wrote: »

Well you wouldn't want War Command coming at your horse coming up to the line at Newmarket, or be trying to pass a tough horse like Toormore and then there's Kingston Hill 120 who's not to be sniffed at if he turns up and Australia who could be anything as well as the speedy Kingman. Then there's Outstrip and a few other decent types. It'll be the best 2,000 Guineas in years if most of them turn up.

How to rate Kingston Hill given what he did to the The Grey Gatsby in the Racing Post after TGG finishing so close to Toormore.
TGG close form with Outstrip.
Outstrip has form with Toormore.

Serious lines there. Zig zags everywhere!! And WC comes out on top in my book atm.

UrbanSea

Yeah the Friendship one after you'd already mentioned Outstrip. I'm not getting into a tit for tat over something so pedantic given I've already said I don't place such emphasis on it, never mind going from two to three.

''Beyond silly'', a fine use of hyperbole there.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah the Friendship one after you'd already mentioned Outstrip. I'm not getting into a tit for tat over something so pedantic given I've already said I don't place such emphasis on it, never mind going from two to three.

''Beyond silly'', a fine use of hyperbole there.

Run along now and let the adults talk.

UrbanSea

Wouldn't expect a reasonably intelligent response anyway.