The Official Off Topic Thread

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

horse that won the 6.45 main edition could be very good
one for the notebook

this runs in the 6.40gd best at 13/8
these newcomers will want to be good to beat it

naughto

mailburner wrote: »

this runs in the 6.40gd best at 13/8
these newcomers will want to be good to beat it

Nice one serious horse they have won it in 2nd gear

Earendil

naughto wrote: »

Nice one serious horse they have won it in 2nd gear

Well done lads

abarkie

Anyone know where I can get an Irish fixture list in Excel please?

BumperD

http://www.hri-ras.ie/race-planning/provisional-summaries/

PDF linked. If you contact hri they might have them in excel.

Slattsy

Are we allowed talk about the World Cup this summer?

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Are we allowed talk about the World Cup this summer?

No!

naughto

Slattsy wrote: »

Are we allowed talk about the World Cup this summer?

I don’t see why not what was the reason it was stoped before

Slattsy

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

munster87

I’ve gone with Germany/Muller top scorer double at 66/1 for interest

Francie Barrett

Slattsy wrote: »

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

France for me, fresh batch of players with the talent and the hunger to win a big tournament.

Timberrrrrrrr

ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND

Timberrrrrrrr

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND

Lern to spel probrly....its
ING-ER-LAND!

BumperD

Slattsy wrote: »

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

Spain juiced again win

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/other-soccer/ewan-mackenna-murky-questions-surround-spanish-footballs-golden-era-and-people-might-not-like-the-answers-36943284.html

Edit: I’m not tipping Spain BTW !

akelly02

belgium for me

Bandana boy

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

TheMilkyPirate

France won't win anything with Deschamps in charge. Zee Germans to do the back ta back ta for me.

If that fails Brazil to pick up the pieces.

Fanny Wank

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

I must try crunch some figures on that but at first glance that looks like one of the worst value bets I've ever seen

4068ac1elhodqr

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

Agree with other poster: rotten odds, and a slightly rotten bet.

For 0-0 (90mins) not to appear across 'x48 group games', the odds should be closer to around 34/1.

And they are... (Hills),
or the WhatOddsPaddy...
Sky likely also have something similar on their requestabet thingy.

T- 7days, 20hrs, 40mins 0secs.

Fanny Wank

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

Just on this, it probably should be closer to a 4 figure price than double figures

kiers47

Fanny **** wrote: »

Just on this, it probably should be closer to a 4 figure price than double figures

I would say probably closer to what accumulator said in the previous post about 33/1-40/1.

I did a calc just on PP prices of over 0.5 goals and an accum on first round matches pays 1.75/1 so say about 2/1.
You can't combine 2nd and 3rd round results with the first I suppose for obvious reasons. But I'm guessing the odds would be somewhere in the same ball park.

So combining the 3 the odds are 2/1x2/1x2/1 ~26/1
Obviously even rounding up from 1.75/1 to 2/1 is still gonna have a fair bit of juice in it for Paddy. So I think adding 50% would be in order for minimum price to be anyway considered value. 40/1 maybe.

I wouldn't in the slightest be a football punter I can't remember the last time I had a bet on it tbh, but the maths stand. 4 figures would be ridiculous imo.

kiers47

I will add that the above was done on by no means any football stats knowledge and if the bookies are taking a ridiculous cut on that market then the figures are going to be slightly skewed. Even so I think it's safe to say that we can be quite confident the true price is something in the 60/1-33/1 range.

So still quite a bit away from 16/1 but not quite 4 figures.

Fanny Wank

This is simple to work out if one knows the average price of 0-0 for the 48 group games.

e.g. if 0-0 is 10/1 (real price after eliminating bookies margin) then not 0-0 is obviously 1/10

If the price of not 0-0 in each game is 1/10 then the price of no 0-0 in 48 games is (1.1)^48 which is just over 96/1. 10/1 0-0 is way too big looking at goals expectations for the first round matches and the price of no 0-0 match goes up quite quickly as the average price does

If it's 1/9 then no 0-0 is 156/1

At 1/8 it's 284/1

At 1/7 it's 606/1

At 1/6 1,633/1

This assumes approximate independence of results (in favour of the bet) as if games are having goals (which must be the case if the bet is still to be alive) then I'm struggling to see how the probability of "not 0-0" could be decreasing vs your estimate before a ball is kicked

kiers47

I see where your going and yes it's pretty easy to work out. But there are going to be a number of those games where not 0-0 is going to be closer to 1/30 than 1/10.

I think you'd have to admit yourself that your 4 figure statement is pretty inacurate. If it is indeed a treble figure price which I am still inclined to not believe it is. Then it will certainly be closer to double digits that 4 figures.

Either way I think we can agree 16/1 is scandalous.

Fanny Wank

kiers47 wrote: »

Either way I think we can agree 16/1 is scandalous.

Agreed!

munster87

High Taylor is in form at the moment. Two at good enough prices today again.

kiers47

Hugh is some man in fairness. It's virtually impossible to get on at advised price though..

BumperD

He’s knocked in another today

kiers47

Anyone seeing this BetVictor Million pound bet thing.

Some lad landed some ridiculous one today.


https://twitter.com/gamray/status/1007716295478038528?s=19

4068ac1elhodqr

kiers47 wrote: »

Anyone seeing this BetVictor Million pound bet thing.

'Stars are doing '100 Million', but requires correct outcome (WDW) to every WC game.
Am just 2pts off so far, but ranked 78,000th.
Unlikely outcome for anyone, and thus thus realistic alternate nb single prize is just $10k and some naff token.

Powers are doing €/£1m challenge, but requires correct AvB (evens) choice for x20 questions, bit like flipping a coin heads up for 20 sequential flips.