The Official Off Topic Thread

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

Originally Posted by BumperD View Post
My original thread was merged & then closed with the Festival Thread but I'll keep this going for fun here ...
Read an article in the sindo a yr or so ago before the festival about the performance of those wearing first time head gear. An interesting analysis, where the writer ran the rule over the previous festival and noticed a trend for those in first time head gear doing well. Que a couple of 33/1 shots last year, western warhorse & very wood was another.

So, I'm going to track all those in first time head gear, lay out a hypothetical betting strategy for next week and see will it come out on top. The interesting thing here is I'll ignore all form, opinions, jockey, trainer, ground, price fluctuations, what way the wind is blowing etc and just put in a hypothetical betting strategy for the 4 days & see can it come out on top.

If a horse has "1" beside his or choice of head piece, then it will fall into my daft little experiment.

Headgear - b=blinkers,
v=visor, e/s = eyeshield,
h = hood, t = tongue-strap;
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.
Thread merged. Oh well, here goes (note, this is not scientific - do not follow, I am not betting on these)

Day 1
1:30 - No qualifier
2:05 - No qualifier
2:40 - Pendra and Monbeg Dude Each 1pt ew - both Unplaced
3:20 - No qualifiers (I'm getting worried now....)
4:00 - Caroles Spirit (first time blinkers) 1pt ew Unplaced
4:40 - Doing Fine/Return Spring (first time blinkers) Each 1pt ew Unplaced
5:15 - Monkey Kingdom (hood & tonguestrap), Irish Cavalier 1st! 11/1 , Killala Quay and Stellar Notion Each 1pt ew Others unplaced

2:40 -4pts
4:00 -2pts
4:40 -4pts
5.15 -6pts + 13.75

Day 1 Total = -2.25

Day Two
1:30 - Warrantor (first time tongue strap)1pt ew Unplaced
2:05 - No qualifiers
2:40 - Dell Arca , blackmail (first time blinkers)1pt ew - both unplaced
3:20 - No qualifiers
4:00 - Nuage D'ainay (first time blinkers) 1pt ew unplaced
4:40 - Arabian Revolution, Unaminite Each 1pt both unplaced
5:15 - Modus 1pt ew 2nd 33/1

Day 2 Total = -12 + 8.25 = -3.75

Running total = -6.00

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

Originally Posted by BumperD View Post
My original thread was merged & then closed with the Festival Thread but I'll keep this going for fun here ...
Read an article in the sindo a yr or so ago before the festival about the performance of those wearing first time head gear. An interesting analysis, where the writer ran the rule over the previous festival and noticed a trend for those in first time head gear doing well. Que a couple of 33/1 shots last year, western warhorse & very wood was another.

So, I'm going to track all those in first time head gear, lay out a hypothetical betting strategy for next week and see will it come out on top. The interesting thing here is I'll ignore all form, opinions, jockey, trainer, ground, price fluctuations, what way the wind is blowing etc and just put in a hypothetical betting strategy for the 4 days & see can it come out on top.

If a horse has "1" beside his or choice of head piece, then it will fall into my daft little experiment.

Headgear - b=blinkers,
v=visor, e/s = eyeshield,
h = hood, t = tongue-strap;
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.
Thread merged. Oh well, here goes (note, this is not scientific - do not follow, I am not betting on these)

Day 1
1:30 - No qualifier
2:05 - No qualifier
2:40 - Pendra and Monbeg Dude Each 1pt ew - both Unplaced
3:20 - No qualifiers (I'm getting worried now....)
4:00 - Caroles Spirit (first time blinkers) 1pt ew Unplaced
4:40 - Doing Fine/Return Spring (first time blinkers) Each 1pt ew Unplaced
5:15 - Monkey Kingdom (hood & tonguestrap), Irish Cavalier 1st! 11/1 , Killala Quay and Stellar Notion Each 1pt ew Others unplaced

2:40 -4pts
4:00 -2pts
4:40 -4pts
5.15 -6pts + 15.75

Day 1 Total = -0.25

Day 2
1:30 - Warrantor (first time tongue strap)1pt ew Unplaced
2:05 - No qualifiers
2:40 - Dell Arca , blackmail (first time blinkers)1pt ew - both unplaced
3:20 - No qualifiers
4:00 - Nuage D'ainay (first time blinkers) 1pt ew unplaced
4:40 - Arabian Revolution, Unaminite Each 1pt both unplaced
5:15 - Modus 1pt ew 2nd 33/1

Day 2 Total = -12 + 9.25 = -2.75

Running total = -3.00

At half time, down 6pts, 1 win, 1 place.

Day 3 Based on Sporting Life card
1:30 No qualifiers
2:05 Bygones Soverign, Junction Fourteen, Acqualim Each 1pt ew all unplaced -6
2:40 Double Ross, Uxizandre 1st! 16/1 Each 1pt ew -2, +21
3:20 At Fishers Cross, Lieutenant Colonel Sanders, Un Temps Pour Tout Each 1pt ew -6
4:00 No Buts 1pt ew -2
4:40 Clondaw Knight, Buddey Bolero 3rd 20/1, Grand Vision 4th 11/1, Sixty Something Each 1pt ew -4, + 8.75

Day 3 total = +9.75

Running Total = +6.75

BumperD

The experiment (not me) is in black with one day to go.

Shemale

ste2010 wrote: »

As expected the lay of the season once again fails to deliver

The New One or Sire De Grugy?

Shemale

A few videos from Cheltenham:

The Mig

BumperD wrote: »

BumperD wrote: »

Originally Posted by BumperD View Post
My original thread was merged & then closed with the Festival Thread but I'll keep this going for fun here ...
Read an article in the sindo a yr or so ago before the festival about the performance of those wearing first time head gear. An interesting analysis, where the writer ran the rule over the previous festival and noticed a trend for those in first time head gear doing well. Que a couple of 33/1 shots last year, western warhorse & very wood was another.

So, I'm going to track all those in first time head gear, lay out a hypothetical betting strategy for next week and see will it come out on top. The interesting thing here is I'll ignore all form, opinions, jockey, trainer, ground, price fluctuations, what way the wind is blowing etc and just put in a hypothetical betting strategy for the 4 days & see can it come out on top.

If a horse has "1" beside his or choice of head piece, then it will fall into my daft little experiment.

Headgear - b=blinkers,
v=visor, e/s = eyeshield,
h = hood, t = tongue-strap;
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.
Thread merged. Oh well, here goes (note, this is not scientific - do not follow, I am not betting on these)

Day 1
1:30 - No qualifier
2:05 - No qualifier
2:40 - Pendra and Monbeg Dude Each 1pt ew - both Unplaced
3:20 - No qualifiers (I'm getting worried now....)
4:00 - Caroles Spirit (first time blinkers) 1pt ew Unplaced
4:40 - Doing Fine/Return Spring (first time blinkers) Each 1pt ew Unplaced
5:15 - Monkey Kingdom (hood & tonguestrap), Irish Cavalier 1st! 11/1 , Killala Quay and Stellar Notion Each 1pt ew Others unplaced

2:40 -4pts
4:00 -2pts
4:40 -4pts
5.15 -6pts + 15.75

Day 1 Total = -0.25

Day 2
1:30 - Warrantor (first time tongue strap)1pt ew Unplaced
2:05 - No qualifiers
2:40 - Dell Arca , blackmail (first time blinkers)1pt ew - both unplaced
3:20 - No qualifiers
4:00 - Nuage D'ainay (first time blinkers) 1pt ew unplaced
4:40 - Arabian Revolution, Unaminite Each 1pt both unplaced
5:15 - Modus 1pt ew 2nd 33/1

Day 2 Total = -12 + 9.25 = -2.75

Running total = -3.00

At half time, down 6pts, 1 win, 1 place.

Day 3 Based on Sporting Life card
1:30 No qualifiers
2:05 Bygones Soverign, Junction Fourteen, Acqualim Each 1pt ew all unplaced -6
2:40 Double Ross, Uxizandre 1st! 16/1 Each 1pt ew -2, +21
3:20 At Fishers Cross, Lieutenant Colonel Sanders, Un Temps Pour Tout Each 1pt ew -6
4:00 No Buts 1pt ew -2
4:40 Clondaw Knight, Buddey Bolero 3rd 20/1, Grand Vision 4th 11/1, Sixty Something Each 1pt ew -4, + 8.75

Day 3 total = +9.75

Running Total = +6.75

1:30 Beltor
2:05 Modem, Ballyglasheen, Baltimore Rock
2:40 Teafortwo
3:20 No Horses
4:00 Junior
4:40 Bordoni, Kauto Grand Mogul, Balgarry
5:15 Solar Impulse, Grumeti

BumperD

One thing which is very noticeable is the inaccuracy of the race cards, no two are the same when it comes to anotating first time headgear with a "1". Very hard to track accurately as they all seem to miss one or two.

convert

As suggested for a thread title.....

sdoc13

convert wrote: »

As suggested for a thread title.....

Can we add him and Aidan to the legends forum.

Thread title more than deserved.

dickenson famous5

only been on forum a month but i will say a very very knowledgable punter read the writeup for years before ijoined a legend

Peintre Celebre

Little Arrows looking very well handicapped in the last tonight worth a chance at 20/1 having fared better than the bare result last time

Rooy

fantastic week for Rossom and well deserved , has been doing Cheltenham write ups on boards for a couple of years and always a good read , this year brings back memorys of Trainbairn's tips in 2007 .

Shemale

Well done Rossom and Aidan, hope yiz are minted.

Shemale

BumperD wrote: »

One thing which is very noticeable is the inaccuracy of the race cards, no two are the same when it comes to anotating first time headgear with a "1". Very hard to track accurately as they all seem to miss one or two.

Timeforms racecard had Druids Nephew trained by Averil Martin

jimjamcos

Tony Martin has Mydor running at Kempton tomorrow having not made it into Pertemps? He's verrrry interesting. Any opinions?

Miall108

As a relative newbie to the Horse Racing forum of late, I didnt realise we had a genius in our ranks until the last couple of days. Well done to Rossum on a wonderful week and for bringing so much joy to other people too. A very very knowledgable punter. Keep up the good work

Cantonesque

Puts the rest of us in the halfpenny place!!!

But huge respect and Kudos for their in depth knowledge... Upwards and onwards...

jimjamcos

Given the title of this thread, what's your opinion on Educate tomorrow, Rossom? Looks a bit overpriced to me at 18/1.

BumperD

The Mig wrote: »

BumperD wrote: »

1:30 Beltor un placed :cool:-2
2:05 Modem, Ballyglasheen, Baltimore Rock unplaced -6
2:40 Teafortwo unplaced :rolleyes: -2
3:20 No Horses
4:00 Junior unplaced -2
4:40 Bordoni, Kauto Grand Mogul 4th 33/1 , Balgarry rest unplaced -4+ 8.25
5:15 Solar Impulse, Grumeti

unplaced -4

-20+8.25 = -11.75

Day 4 Total = -11.75

Grand Total = -5.00 :mad:

Gringo180

Some great tipping by the lads.

P.S How come Aidans name isnt on the thread title?

Oscars Well.

Glens Melody retired

convert

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Glens Melody retired

Read that earlier. probably not all that surprising.

superfurry1

convert wrote: »

Read that earlier. probably not all that surprising.

She has proven herself She can go make some future champions now

tomaussie

Arsenal and Swansea double today. Free money.

jimjamcos

Jim Culloty has told Davy Russell that he will no longer be riding his horses. Absolutely laughable from a trainer who has not had a single winner in over a year, since the same jockey brilliantly rode an bang average animal to win racing's biggest race.

mailburner

4 odds on shots turned over in 4 consective races :eek:
not sure ive seen that before
one of them 1/20, shortest i can remember

magicmoves

mailburner wrote: »

4 odds on shots turned over in 4 consective races :eek:
not sure ive seen that before
one of them 1/20, shortest i can remember

It's a great day for the bookies (((

Gregk961

magicmoves wrote: »

It's a great day for the bookies (((

Anybody involved in a 1/20 on the all weather is off their rocker to be honest.

shamdrog63

Noel Fehilly rides in the 1st 2 races @ Kempton today then is down in the papers to ride in the bumper @ Warwick.Would be interesting in a competitive looking affair.

tomaussie

That kid keeping goal in the Bike Safely advert on TV should be done for match fixing. He practically throws the ball in to his own net during that indoor game. Shocking.