Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

dloob

It's a pretty unpleasant night in Galway city.
Wet and windy although I think the wind has eased off a bit recently.
Must be getting ready for wednesday night.
A real Galway style winter so far, wet and windy, I like it.
I'd prefer snow of course but overlooking the Atlantic makes that a very rare treat, I've only seen frost one morning this winter so far.

Oneiric 3

dloob wrote: »

I've only seen frost one morning this winter so far.

We got all them frosts in Spring I think. Barely a night went by when we didn't get one in March-early April.

mickyfitzy2

We get one of them frosty things every 300 years up here in Donegal...lol... wind rain wind rain wind rain... but see when its good.........absolutely no better place! fact!

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM with Force 11 winds along coasts from Slyne Head northwards, as in the Met Eireann sea area forecast.





It will really only be an "event" for coastal counties, but it does look like being very windy for a time for areas on and near the coast in those places.

But the low hasn't even developed yet, so let's see how things look in the morning.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

But the low hasn't even developed yet, so let's see how things look in the morning.

Very disorganized looking at 21z with shortwave only beginning to influence. Hoping for a bomb.

mickyfitzy2

Looking at Met Eireann, serious looking for Mayo at 18.00 on 5 day chart!

maquiladora

Latest output from the UKMO's very high resolution model showing simulated cloudcover.

6pm : Center of low off the Mayo coast.





9pm : Center of the low off the Donegal coast.



Will be interesting to come back to have a look at this tomorrow evening to see how close it was. :pac:

squarecircles

i live just outside Louisburgh in west Mayo, half a mile from the coast, should i be concerned???

maquiladora

squarecircles wrote: »

i live just outside Louisburgh in west Mayo, half a mile from the coast, should i be concerned???

I'd say just prepare for the power to go and avoid travel once the wind picks up, I don't think there's any reason to be concerned beyond that.

squarecircles

ok ill get the candles out:D

pauldry

squarecircles wrote: »

i live just outside Louisburgh in west Mayo, half a mile from the coast, should i be concerned???

youll have fun, winds of 80knts possible there , branches and some debris like slates also, it will be from 6 to 9pm at its worst then after that Sligo Donegal and Derry get it

cormie

Hi folks, this is pretty bad timing for me, but I've a job to Scotland later today, going Larne - Cairnryan on the 16:30 sailing today, arriving in Cairnryan around 18:30, driving to Edinburgh to hopefully be there around 21:00, staying the night there and then driving back tomorrow to catch the 16:30 sailing back from Cairnryan to Larne.

Checked the P&O ferry site but it's down for maintenance so hoping I might be able to get some info from ye weather masters as what may lie ahead for me... :eek:

maquiladora

cormie wrote: »

Hi folks, this is pretty bad timing for me, but I've a job to Scotland later today, going Larne - Cairnryan on the 16:30 sailing today, arriving in Cairnryan around 18:30, driving to Edinburgh to hopefully be there around 21:00, staying the night there and then driving back tomorrow to catch the 16:30 sailing back from Cairnryan to Larne.

Checked the P&O ferry site but it's down for maintenance so hoping I might be able to get some info from ye weather masters as what may lie ahead for me... :eek:

You'll have a better idea in the morning, it looks like it would be close to gale force around there at that time.

Tactical

Its dead calm here now in West Limerick.
Around 2100z it was pretty windy, I didn't venture out to measure speeds though. Nothing more than a good Southerly blowing which was nice to listen to while doing other things.

maquiladora

3 models for 9pm :

0Z GFS :



0Z NAE :



0Z HIRLAM :

Weathering

NAE would pound Donegal. I can't get over the difference between them

maquiladora

0Z HIRLAM has a narrow swathe of Force 12 winds no more than 10-20 miles off the Donegal coast at 10pm.

cormie

cormie wrote: »

Hi folks, this is pretty bad timing for me, but I've a job to Scotland later today, going Larne - Cairnryan on the 16:30 sailing today, arriving in Cairnryan around 18:30, driving to Edinburgh to hopefully be there around 21:00, staying the night there and then driving back tomorrow to catch the 16:30 sailing back from Cairnryan to Larne.

Checked the P&O ferry site but it's down for maintenance so hoping I might be able to get some info from ye weather masters as what may lie ahead for me... :eek:

maquiladora wrote: »

You'll have a better idea in the morning, it looks like it would be close to gale force around there at that time.

Ok thanks a lot, seems very calm outside at the moment, I'm not too au fait with reading weather so might have to post again later for some advice Gale force doesn't sound too inviting though

maquiladora

UK Met Office have upgraded their sea area gale warnings. Shannon, Rockall and Malin have all been upgraded to hurricane force 12. Irish Sea has been upgraded to storm force 10.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Shannon

smallwonder

Weathering wrote: »

NAE would pound Donegal. I can't get over the difference between them

Going to be a fun night!

JanuarySnowstor

The esb might regret not going on strike because all the models show it being a stormy Christmas this morning.
Disruption looks inevitable

maquiladora

I think we'll have to see red warnings from Met Eireann in the morning if the 0Z ECM is anything to go by. It shows sustained winds on coasts from Galway to Donegal of 90-110km/h, with 110-130 km/h sustained winds not far off shore, and between 6-9pm it looks very likely that those stronger winds would reach the coastline in places too. Gusts of course would be even higher.

The only good news is that the severe winds won't reach very far inland from the coast and won't last very long in any one particular area because of the high speed of the low and the track it will be taking.

M.T. Cranium

The low appears to have formed and is around 51N 22W. A ship at 45.1N 25.4W has 52 kt westerly winds. The storm motion is somewhere between ENE and NE and I'm hoping to get a better fix on actual isobars from a CMC product due out in ten minutes. The 06z model runs should have the right solution now that we have formation. My first impression is that it could track as shown on GFS and GEM (ECM generally in agreement) but also could have the tighter gradient on the high res models.

Weathering

The only good news is that the severe winds won't reach very far inland

How far inland? 10/20/50 miles. I'm about 20miles

maquiladora

The GFS and ECM are still different and I think its down to the advantage the ECM and regional models have with their higher resolution. The GFS looks almost like a smoothed mean chart compared to the ECM, and it misses the most important detail which is the tight isobars along the west/northwest coast.

GFS :


ECM:

irish1967

Strange charts indeed and that in itself can be dangerous. If they all agreed we here in Donegal would be getting properly warned. Local radio this morning has no mention if storm in its news items and 'severe gusts' at tail end if weather.
No one wants to cry wolf.
The wolf could bite us hard in the ass for that !

shmaupel

I've been glued to this forum since the big freeze of 2010 but still am not up to speed on reading charts and rely on everyone else's interpretation of the them. The past 24 hours have been really interesting in that regard so thanks to all.

I'm on the coast just outside Donegal town facing due West, and unfortunately don't have a weather station yet. However I'll post what I can as this event unfolds.

Really just want to thank all of those who take the time to share their knowledge, it's very much appreciated.

cormie

cormie wrote: »

Hi folks, this is pretty bad timing for me, but I've a job to Scotland later today, going Larne - Cairnryan on the 16:30 sailing today, arriving in Cairnryan around 18:30, driving to Edinburgh to hopefully be there around 21:00, staying the night there and then driving back tomorrow to catch the 16:30 sailing back from Cairnryan to Larne.

Checked the P&O ferry site but it's down for maintenance so hoping I might be able to get some info from ye weather masters as what may lie ahead for me... :eek:

Cairnryan

This is the update for 07:00 Wednesday 18th December 2013.

All services operating to schedule.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Larne

This is the update for 07:00 Wednesday 18th December 2013.

All services operating to schedule.

I wonder if there's any way of predicting how this will pan out for my 16:30 sailing today and tomorrow? Would I be better off trying to make an earlier ferry today?

relaxed

cormie wrote: »

I wonder if there's any way of predicting how this will pan out for my 16:30 sailing today and tomorrow? Would I be better off trying to make an earlier ferry today?

I suppose ring the ferry company. The Ulysses has never lost a sailing to the weather apparently, not sure if that's an option.

Sierra Oscar

Status Red Alert now issued by Met Éireann:

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Coastal counties of Connacht and Donegal

Warning update.

It will become stormy later today and for a time tonight, in coastal counties of Connacht and west Ulster, with severe southwest winds with mean speeds of 70 to 90km/h and damaging gusts of 120 to 150km/h, strongest in exposed coastal areas. Very high seas also.

Issued:
Wednesday 18 December 2013 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 18 December 2013 15:00 to Thursday 19 December 2013 03:00

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp