The case for Keith Earls to start ahead of BOD

Quin_Dub

As someone has already said.. Before Earls can be considered the starting 13 for Ireland , he must be the nailed on starting 13 for Munster.

To date , that has not been the case , either through injury (to him or to others in the squad necessitating him being played at wing or fb) or through tactical decisions by the coach.

As it stands today, if the full Munster squad was available and fit for a big H-Cup game in this Saturday, there would still be some debate as to where to play Earls or even if he would be a starter.

He can never be a guaranteed starter for Ireland until that is no longer the case... Regardless of his potential etc.

Btw - The same applies to several other players as well - McFadden , Fitzgerald , Marshall (both of them),Jackson, Madigan to name a few..

former legend

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He only came back after the 6 nations, and if course there's an allowane for hitting his stride, he just about hit his stride for the Amlin final.

Eh? What about the Scarlets and Exeter games in the HC?

If you don't rate him, that's OK, but I thought he was excellent against Wasps and Biarritz anyway.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Quin_Dub wrote: »

As someone has already said.. Before Earls can be considered the starting 13 for Ireland , he must be the nailed on starting 13 for Munster.

To date , that has not been the case , either through injury (to him or to others in the squad necessitating him being played at wing or fb) or through tactical decisions by the coach.
or
As it stands today, if the full Munster squad was available and fit for a big H-Cup game in this Saturday, there would still be some debate as to where to play Earls even if he would be a starter.

He can never be a guaranteed starter for Ireland until that is no longer the case... Regardless of his potential etc.

Btw - The same applies to several other players as well - McFadden , Fitzgerald , Marshall (both of them),Jackson, Madigan to name a few..

There would be absolutely no debate about Earls starting for Munster

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

There would be absolutely no debate about Earls starting for Munster

Not 100% certain about this anymore myself. Considering the players available (if all fit) between this season and last.

Earls
Zebo
LOD
Jones
Lualala
Downey
Hurley
Howlett / GVDH
Conway

Only 5 positions from 11-15, and one bench spot so 3 players miss out altogether from the above and one sits on the bench.

Have included Howlett for last season comparison, and GVDH for this.

I imagine that LOD and Hurley (probably Conway too) are the likely losers, but what is the makeup of the backline with all other players available and fit? Is it a certainty that Earls plays 13? Is he a better bench option than all others?

Quin_Dub

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

There would be absolutely no debate about Earls starting for Munster

Not sure I'd agree there...

Let me put it this way

% chance of Earls involvement in a match day H-Cup squad when all are fit?

Match day Squad - 100%
Starting Centre - 60/65%
Starting Winger - 85-90%

Selection for club/province must be utterly unequivocal before a player can considered an International starter in a given position.

former legend

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

There would be absolutely no debate about Earls starting for Munster

No? Do you think it's very clear cut between himself and Laulala? (genuine question)

I'd be pretty disappointed if Laulala didn't play better this season, he was so good for Cardiff, it would be a shame if he never replicated it at Munster.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Deleted User wrote: »

Earls
Zebo
LOD
Jones
Lualala
Downey
Hurley
Howlett / GVDH

Only 5 positions from 11-15, and one bench spot so 2 players miss out altogether from the above and one starts on the bench.

Have included Howlett for last season comparison, and GVDH for this.

I imagine that LOD and Hurley are the likely losers, but what is the makeup of the backline with all other players available and fit? Is it a certainty that Earls plays 13?

You forgot Conway too! Just can't see a player of Earls's quality and versatility not being in the starting 15 for Munster when fit. Even if GVDH, Zebo and LLL all nail themselves into their respective positions next season Earls would still be a much better option at 15 than Jones

I'd still have Earls as first choice at 13 and 14/11 (Zebo on the other wing)

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

You forgot Conway too! Just can't see a player of Earls's quality and versatility not being in the starting 15 for Munster when fit. Even if GVDH, Zebo and LLL all nail themselves into their respective positions next season Earls would still be a much better option at 15 than Jones

I'd still have Earls as first choice at 13 and 14/11 (Zebo on the other wing)

so give me the starting lineup and bench.

I am not certain at all where he starts. And I don't think it's 13 anywhere near all the time.

There are plenty of realistic backlines with him at 15 and 11 more so.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not sure I'd agree there...

Let me put it this way

% chance of Earls involvement in a match day H-Cup squad when all are fit?

Match day Squad - 100%
Starting Centre - 60/65%
Starting Winger - 85-90%

Selection for club/province must be utterly unequivocal before a player can considered an International starter in a given position.

Ah here!

Ok, my statistics tell me that those statistics are 100% unreliable

Look Earls is going to be picked for Munster, not sure where that will be but it will take a lot of players playing very well, and Earls playing poorly for him to be dropped out of the 15

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Deleted User wrote: »

so give me the starting lineup and bench.

I am not certain at all where he starts. And I don't think it's 13 anywhere near all the time.

I think we're getting our wires crossed, I'm not saying he's nailed on to start at 13 all the time. I think he could very easily have to play on the wing or 15 for a large portion of this season if LLL gets going properly. I don't think he is in much danger of being dropped from the starting 15 though

Quin_Dub

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

Ah here!

Ok, my statistics tell me that those statistics are 100% unreliable

Look Earls is going to be picked for Munster, not sure where that will be but it will take a lot of players playing very well, and Earls playing poorly for him to be dropped out of the 15

Broadly I'd agree with you - On balance Earls will starts most games when fit and available (hence the 85/90% score) but on the wing.. With everyone fit, I personally think the make-up of the team would be better with Earls not in the centre.

Look - All bets are off until we see people playing - Guys could come back playing either magnificently or muck..you just don't know...

This whole conversation is probably better had in mid October after the first couple of H-Cup games when we have current form to review and debate.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

I think we're getting our wires crossed, I'm not saying he's nailed on to start at 13 all the time. I think he could very easily have to play on the wing or 15 for a large portion of this season if LLL gets going properly. I don't think he is in much danger of being dropped from the starting 15 though

I think his versatility makes him a far better option on the bench than a lot of the other names above. It could easily make more sense to have that option on the bench and in doing so 'drops him out of the 15'.

GVDH and Zebo can probably stake a valid claim for a bench spot as they've both played across the back three. I'm not sure who else is a viable #23 for Munster.

If it's a straight shootout between the 3 named for a starting slot or a bench spot, Zebo starts almost every time, and then you have Earls v Unknown really for the other starting berth. No idea how this is likely to end up, but instead of being "a lot of players need to be playing well and Earls needs to be under performing" it becomes a simple "GVDH is playing better than Earls". I don't know a whole lot about the new guy, but there may well be times during the season that this is the case no?

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Deleted User wrote: »

I think his versatility makes him a far better option on the bench than a lot of the other names above. It could easily make more sense to have that option on the bench and in doing so 'drops him out of the 15'.

GVDH and Zebo can probably stake a valid claim for a bench spot as they've both played across the back three. I'm not sure who else is a viable #23 for Munster.

If it's a straight shootout between the 3 named for a starting slot or a bench spot, Zebo starts almost every time, and then you have Earls v Unknown really for the other starting berth. No idea how this is likely to end up, but instead of being "a lot of players need to be playing well and Earls needs to be under performing" it becomes a simple "GVDH is playing better than Earls". I don't know a whole lot about the new guy, but there could well be times during the season that this is the case no?

But even if that happens, and this is a guy who won't be arriving until mid October. Earls is still a much better option at 15 than Jones or Hurley

Even if Jones, GVDM, Zebo are all nailed on and LLL is ripping it up in the centre Munster don't have much quality at 12 so I wouldn't be surprised to even see him accommodated there

I just can't see Earls not starting a big game for Munster this season if fit. It would take a massive dip in form imo

jm08

Garret Fitz saying in the Examiner today that Munster will not be recruiting anyone else as they are happy with younger players coming in (Munster still have a NIQ spot). From the article suggests that Andrew Conway and Van Heefer will be fighting it out for Dougie's old shirt. Also said that Keats, JJ & Johnny Holland will be fighting it out for the 10 jersey (so JJ's future is at 10, not 12).

I think Earls will be a certain starter in the centre for big games with Casey & Downey being rotated on and off the bench - just like it was last season.

irishbucsfan

former legend wrote: »

Eh? What about the Scarlets and Exeter games in the HC?

If you don't rate him, that's OK, but I thought he was excellent against Wasps and Biarritz anyway.

Actually this is a silly discussion. I rate him very highly. Don't think he was near his best but it's neither here nor there. This thread is not worthy of this discussion!

jm08

Quin_Dub wrote: »

As someone has already said.. Before Earls can be considered the starting 13 for Ireland , he must be the nailed on starting 13 for Munster.

To date , that has not been the case , either through injury (to him or to others in the squad necessitating him being played at wing or fb) or through tactical decisions by the coach.

As it stands today, if the full Munster squad was available and fit for a big H-Cup game in this Saturday, there would still be some debate as to where to play Earls or even if he would be a starter.

He can never be a guaranteed starter for Ireland until that is no longer the case... Regardless of his potential etc.

Btw - The same applies to several other players as well - McFadden , Fitzgerald , Marshall (both of them),Jackson, Madigan to name a few..

Earls Heineken Cup Caps:

at 13: 27 caps (starting)
at 15: 3 caps (starting)
at 11: 2 caps (starting)
at 14: 1 cap (starting)

Earls has never benched for a Heineken Cup game - he always starts. Even when coming back from injury this season (Clermot - first game since 6 Nations), he started on a wing he never plays on.

Of his 78 caps for Munster, 72 have been as a starter. The only time he comes off the bench is his first game of the season.

Earls is a nailed on starter for Munster when he is fit (or even semi-fit).

Buer

jm08 wrote: »

Earls has never benched for a Heineken Cup game - he always starts. Even when coming back from injury this season (Clermot - first game since 6 Nations), he started on a wing he never plays on.

Earls has never come off the bench for a HEC game.

Lelantos

Earls starts for Munster all day long. Anyone who believes otherwise is deluding themselves.
He prob starts at 13 since Munster were quite ready to allow Laulala leave for Waikato if the timing had been right.

Buer

Lelantos wrote: »

Earls starts for Munster all day long. Anyone who believes otherwise is deluding themselves.
He prob starts at 13 since Munster were quite ready to allow Laulala leave for Waikato if the timing had been right.

On loan and return to them for their season. That was quite possibly more to do with money than anything.

I'd agree though, Earls will start in some position barring a disaster of an opening month or two.

Lelantos

Buer wrote: »

On loan and return to them for their season. That was quite possibly more to do with money than anything.

I'd agree though, Earls will start in some position barring a disaster of an opening month or two.

I doubt the loan story very much.
Can you think of another Irish club that has ever done that? What happened if LLL broke his tibia in the first game? It was very suspicious at the time & smelled like a guy wanting to go home

Buer

Lelantos wrote: »

I doubt the loan story very much.
Can you think of another Irish club that has ever done that? What happened if LLL broke his tibia in the first game? It was very suspicious at the time & smelled like a guy wanting to go home

Who knows? It was reported at the time that Munster had given their approval and the NZRU blocked it.

I'm sure Laulala would be quite happy to spend another year and pick up a solid pay cheque before heading home. He has been up in this neck of the woods for a long time, has a long relationship with Penney and is getting a load of game time. I wouldn't see any reason for him to try and jump ship.

jm08

Lelantos wrote: »

I doubt the loan story very much.
Can you think of another Irish club that has ever done that? What happened if LLL broke his tibia in the first game? It was very suspicious at the time & smelled like a guy wanting to go home

No doubt Casey saw Wian getting pushed out the door (because he was NIQ) even though Munster are thin on experienced loosehead backup. Pity the NZRU blocked Casey's loan - he'd have a Super Rugby title now if the loan was allowed.

From NZ press, it seems the Crusaders wouldn't mind having him back as well.