WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

I enjoy CFS charts the same way I enjoy looking at archive charts from the past, it's eye candy.

A be it it is

lapua20grain

even the evening herald is quoting james madden
http://www.herald.ie/news/forecaster-predicting-big-winter-freezeup-29686304.html

Loughc

lapua20grain wrote: »

even the evening herald is quoting james madden
http://www.herald.ie/news/forecaster-predicting-big-winter-freezeup-29686304.html

Oh you tease herald. I suppose a headline saying a mild wet winter expected doesn't have the same ring to it.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I thought you said previously your model wasn't accurate for Temps?

The model I use could be called a lunar/solar/magnetic one, along similar lines to how MTC appears to be describing his. I believe the lunar component more often determines the timing of weather events and the solar more often the varying intensities and magnitudes, although there is much crossover in nature, and our science tries a little too much to neatly categorise at times, which brings confusion.
I suspect that this is because our brains are a function of sequence and pattern, and we sometimes fail to satisfy our own arbitrary criteria, assuming that they are universal which they are probably not. We can be left with a pile of coincidences that cannot be explained with known theories.
But coincidences have no place in science - everything is for good reason, and this clause allows alternative viewpoints to gain traction. It is just as well science has had its mavericks, astrologers like Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Laplace and Newton, or there would have been no advance in science.
The magnetic compnent describes the stress on the earth's crust and therefore also turbulence in air, land and sea, driven primarily by the land tide with its transference to ocean currents. It is this factor that I believe largely responsible for seismic events.
All these factors are cyclic and therefore somewhat predictable. The error enters when e.g. local factors can interrupt the lunar vector and events may be delayed or displaced.
The solar force is less predictable than the moon and is chiefly governed by positions of planets, mainly the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn. For instance the solar cycle averaging 11 years can vary between 9-14 years.
Temperatures are the domain of solar factors but are also subject to lunar declination. Because solar is the harder to pattern accurately, temperatures are harder to get right than event timing.
Back in January I suggested to Irish media that 9 July would bring heatwaves of up to 30degC because of trends, not literal temperature figures. I had noticed that the closest perigee for this year was due to combine with southern declination in the last week of June, which could cause record high SSTs over the summer. If this was not a causal factor for the heatwaves then these lunar factors must be dismissed as coincidence and another reason found for the ensuing high air temperatures.
When discussing trends one must have a poiint of focus, which is why I do suggest certain temperature trends, but with the riders I have proposed, so that readers know that this is not an exact science but at least an effort to provide something useful for planning purposes, and at least better than having nothing.
I am the first to admit that like every method this one too has failures, but I believe the method has value because failures are outweighed by successes.
If one combines the solar component of 11 years and the lunar of roughly 8-10 and 17-19 years, one can arrive at algorithms that yield a 9-11 year cycle. it is probably why MTC called 1987 an equivalent year in some aspects, and I would tend to agree.
But it is not enough to take just one year, one must utilise all the cycles and come up with a trend. The pity is that in many cases we do not possess verifiable data beyond half a century ago, allowing 30 years for the establishment of national averages.
I hope that helps to answer your question.

Snowmaker

In fairness to Ken - he stands by his methods and keeps posting/contributing here despite the belief or disbelief of some posters. Fair play to him for composing the explanation above. A contribution, no matter how plausible, is a contribution nonetheless, and makes the forum richer as a whole.

Villain

Snowmaker wrote: »

In fairness to Ken - he stands by his methods and keeps posting/contributing here despite the belief or disbelief of some posters. Fair play to him for composing the explanation above. A contribution, no matter how plausible, is a contribution nonetheless, and makes the forum richer as a whole.

I'm aware mods don't want this thread to go off topic but for reasons of fairness and balance I feel have to reply to the above.

I would have to strongly disagree based on previous threads here and the fact that I actually put a full years forecast from him to the test.

highdef

Villain wrote: »

I'm aware mods don't want this thread to go off topic but for reasons of fairness and balance I feel have to reply to the above.

I would have to strongly disagree based on previous threads here and the fact that I actually put a full years forecast from him to the test.

It's a forecast/prediction and therefore is liable not to be correct for some/all of the time. Others have given their thoughts and forecasts for the winter, some just by "what they think" will happen. However these people have not have replies/comments such as the above. Ken is most definitely victimised by the same few people here and it really does need to stop. Grow up kids!!!

Villain

highdef wrote: »

It's a forecast/prediction and therefore is liable not to be correct for some/all of the time. Others have given their thoughts and forecasts for the winter, some just by "what they think" will happen. However these people have not have replies/comments such as the above. Ken is most definitely victimised by the same few people here and it really does need to stop. Grow up kids!!!

Sorry but my reply above is based on several threads here in the past in which I have tried to discuss long range forecasts with Ken and as for your comment that others didn't get the same treatment I think you will find I made a comment on MT's and also on Madden's and Farrell's, the big difference though is Ken charges for his long range forecasts.

The main issue I have with any long range forecast is that the professionals i.e. Met Eireann and the UK Met Office etc say there is no scientific basis for them and the media print them when they forecast extremes and then forums like this one have people talking about them as if they are valid, imo they are similar to horoscopes and while I have nothing against people believing horoscopes most people know the chance of a horoscope being correct is low however they seem to think long range forecasts are likely to be correct!

Snowmaker

So shall we leave it at that and not derail the thread? :-)
Everyone is entitled to their input, forecast, outlook, and guesstimate - and everyone else is entitled to question the method by which they came to their conclusion. It can be modified/changed with each change in variable input factor. That's what makes this forum so enjoyable...especially in silly-season, but lets get back on topic now yeh? :-)

So, here's some eye-candy.. unfortunately it's way out and doesn't form part of an overall trend for that week, it's just cold - not too many other indicators for snow, but sure 'tis a sight to behold - Frosties for breakfast that morning! And my feeling for this winter is that it won't really get going until late-January. My method: Nature's balancing act + gut feeling + guesstimate.

Old diesel

Snowmaker wrote: »

In fairness to Ken - he stands by his methods and keeps posting/contributing here despite the belief or disbelief of some posters. Fair play to him for composing the explanation above. A contribution, no matter how plausible, is a contribution nonetheless, and makes the forum richer as a whole.

Agreed - im not a Ken ring fan in terms of his methods - but id be disappointed if the man wasn't able to post any more.

I welcome the fact he is posting here - and seeing his views - I think its so much better that way.

It benefits the forum to have a diverse contribution - and I thank Ken for contributing to the site with his views and contributions .

finnbob123

take a look at this for cold weather.
http://youtu.be/yFSO68PX9lg

doccy

highdef wrote: »

It's a forecast/prediction and therefore is liable not to be correct for some/all of the time. Others have given their thoughts and forecasts for the winter, some just by "what they think" will happen. However these people have not have replies/comments such as the above. Ken is most definitely victimised by the same few people here and it really does need to stop. Grow up kids!!!

In fairness you have to decide what kind of weather forum you/we want. If you read MT's Seasonal forecasts in depth, there is some out of the box research too (which Ken eluded too). Ken predicts the weather months from now, but read weather forums and they can't tell you what Sundays weather will do with precision. If we want Daily Mail headlines lets link them in, if we want science lets question … or maybe we should "grow up."

Blizzard 2010

I would say we are in a for a few surprises next month. By mid november a quite considerable drop in temperatures maybe. the mountain torque over asia presently may have some implications for the Stratosphere.

MiNdGaM3

Here's an update on theose CFS blocking grahs I posted up here a while ago. For an an explanation on what they mean and how they were made, check this post http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87038570&postcount=290
The 5 day mean has been changed to the 10 day mean, that's the only difference.

Here's November, the y axis shows the strength of SLP anomalies to our north based on the 12z CFS. The blue bars are the daily values, the red line is the 10 days mean and the trend is in black.



The trend has gone very much downhill since I first posted the graphs. The 10 day mean reached it's minimum on Monday, but has since climbed back toward neutral. Over the last 7 days, 2 runs have show -ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 have shown neutral and 3 have shown positive. This is an improvement on the previous 7 days, but still offers little in the way of a useful signal for November.

Below is December



The trend is now going downward, but it's still averaging in the slight to moderate blocking category. The last 7 days have seen 2 runs with -ve SLP anomalies to our north, none with neutral and 5 with positive, which still suggests a blocked December is most likely on the cards.

March has shown the most consistent blocking by far, with just 2 out of the last 42 runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north!

Kippure

A taste of winter today in Calgary.:D

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

A taste of winter today in Calgary.:D

My friend from Edmonton was telling me about this a few minutes ago. She said it can get down to -30 over there during the depths of winter. Call me crazy, but I would to like experience that!

Kippure

nacho libre wrote: »

My friend from Edmonton was telling me about this a few minutes ago. She said it can get down to -30 over there during the depths of winter. Call me crazy, but I would to experience that!

Try minus 50c with wind chill. That's hardcore.

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

Try minus 50c with wind chill. That's hardcore.

Was that in the northern most part of the state? To be honest the coldest temperature i experienced over there was -15 in a gale force wind. That was in Winterpeg

Kippure

nacho libre wrote: »

Was that in the northern most part of the state? To be honest the coldest temperature i experienced over there was -15 in a gale force wind. That was in Winterpeg

Just north of Fort MacMurray. Ive experienced minus 54c with windchill. Even though you have all the gear, your hands and face still suffer. Its a tough place to work.

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

Just north of Fort MacMurray. Ive experienced minus 54c with windchill. Even though you have all the gear, your hands and face still suffer. Its a tough place to work.

i must tell the people i work with of this, next time they're bitching again about having to work outside in temperatures of 2 degrees:pac:

icesnowfrost

How is the weather looking in comparison to this time last year. Iv also heard that a few storms before the winter kicks in is a good sign for a cold set up.

Or am I way off the mark.

Kippure

icesnowfrost wrote: »

How is the weather looking in comparison to this time last year. Iv also heard that a few storms before the winter kicks in is a good sign for a cold set up.

Or am I way off the mark.

Last year we had snow just like today, then about the end of the first week of Novemember she went down to minus 27 over night. Stayed like that up to the end of march. (Fort Mackay, northern Alberta)

Some times we don't get snow just very cold temputures. And when it snows it stays around for months on end.

We are meant to get a cold winter this time round. Below average temputures.

That means one thing.

Its going to be a really cold winter. I,d expect average day time temputures to be around minus 30 instead of minus 20 ish.

icesnowfrost

Kippure wrote: »

Last year we had snow just like today, then about the end of the first week of Novemember she went down to minus 27 over night. Stayed like that up to the end of march. (Fort Mackay, northern Alberta)

Some times we don't get snow just very cold temputures. And when it snows it stays around for months on end.



We are meant to get a cold winter this time round. Below average temputures.

That means one thing.

Its going to be a really cold winter. I,d expect average day time temputures to be around minus 30 instead of minus 20 ish.

I mean in Ireland

Kippure

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I mean in Ireland

Havent a clue, don't live there anymore.:) I just follow MT. And Joe B. And I go by what they suggest winter will be like.

touts

icesnowfrost wrote: »

How is the weather looking in comparison to this time last year. Iv also heard that a few storms before the winter kicks in is a good sign for a cold set up.

Or am I way off the mark.

I suppose its as good a way of giving a long term forecast as any and it certainly beats smelling fox pee or whatever it is your man in Donegal does.

cornee

Saw a few flocks of wild geese heading south over the past week. Is it a bit early for this or is this a sign of a hard winter.

MidMan25

cornee wrote: »

Saw a few flocks of wild geese heading south over the past week. Is it a bit early for this or is this a sign of a hard winter.

It's a sign of geese heading south! :pac:

rickdangerouss

Snow cover has increased in the last two weeks.
NOAA is down allot on this time last year.




Last year this time.


http://www.climate4you.com/index.htm

Blizzard 2010

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Snow cover has increased in the last two weeks.
NOAA is down allot on this time last year.




Last year this time.


http://www.climate4you.com/index.htm

America/Canada snow is less extensive than this time last year. Thats an excellent site

Kenring

While it is interesting discussion Canada's winter bears little resemblance to that of Ireland. Canada should get regular snow whereas Ireland should get off comparatively lightly. In Calgary in the third week in November should be about 5 days of snow, and then fairly continuously from the first week of December until just before Xmas. Temperatures have the potential to reach the -30Cs in Calgary in the second week of December and then reoccur regularly during January and February. But Ireland is unlikely to get colder than -10C this winter.

Speak Now

How often do Ireland get temps below -10??

jaffusmax

Kenring wrote: »

But Ireland is unlikely to get colder than -10C this winter.

Kenring

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

How often do Ireland get temps below -10??

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

ninebeanrows

Kenring wrote: »

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

I would of thought every other winter somewhere in Ireland gets a minima of -10c or below.

Not that rare at all.

- open to correction

Red Pepper

It will be at least -10C on top of Mount Brandon or Galtymore a few times over the winter and I aim to be there for some of them!

jaffusmax

Colder Mid Nov?

icesnowfrost

Kenring wrote: »

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

Are we forgetting 2010

Danno

Getting -10c and below in Ireland during winter can be defined as...

One climatological station reading a temperatures of -10c or below... something that would probably happen 3 or 4 times a decade in my estimation.

OR

Widespread -10c and below readings such as December 2010...

either way both are true outcomes. The widespread outcome will be what everyone expects to happen when reading predictions from K.Ring, MTC et all... this is the sword they fall on when the time comes to pass and people look back on the winter that was and the predictions that came before it.

I think those producing forecasts should bear this in mind, and especially look at population distributions across the island. Saying -10c will be reached in Ireland may not equate to the 2 million people in the immediate areas around Dublin, where as if -10c was recorded in south Leitrim - a home to 30,000 folk - it makes a huge huge difference.

Mesut Ozil

When a high pressure settles over the country and the frosty nights kick in, I've never really seen Met Eireann forecast anything colder than -6*C or -7*C.

If we see -10*C it's because Siberia came to visit.

dopolahpec

Winter still seems a long way away. We've phased from a prolonged period of stagnant murky and extraordinarily mild autumn weather, into an equally prolonged period of Atlantic wind and depressions. What's the next big change gonna be? ;')

DanWall

I moved and lagged my storage tank in the attic after 2010, but its never been as cold since, I monitor the temperature via a wireless sensor; 2010 = 2 deg when I would switch the heater on, 2012 -2013 = 5 deg, no heater required, I also bought some grips to go on my shoes 3 year ago and have not had to use them. so where is the cold spells?

derekon

Kenring wrote: »

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

I am sorry Ken I am going to have to correct you on this one.

Dublin Airport recorded a temperature of -11.4oC on the night of December 23rd into December 24th, 2010.

Also if memory serves me correct, it dropped even lower again on Christmas night (before the mild air swept back in) and I think Casement, Co Dublin recorded a low of -15oC on Christmas night, 2010.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-airport-records-lowest-december-temperature-of-114c-486911.html

D

Elmer Blooker

you will find that temperatures of -10c or lower in Ireland are only recorded when there is lying snow.

Kenring

derekon wrote: »

I am sorry Ken I am going to have to correct you on this one.

Dublin Airport recorded a temperature of -11.4oC on the night of December 23rd into December 24th, 2010.

Also if memory serves me correct, it dropped even lower again on Christmas night (before the mild air swept back in) and I think Casement, Co Dublin recorded a low of -15oC on Christmas night, 2010.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-airport-records-lowest-december-temperature-of-114c-486911.html

D

Sorry, I don't understand, we all know about 2010 because it is in recent memory so I was reaching further back. I was referring to pre recent years as examples. I seek to know what are you correcting me on. My figures came from Met Eireann records, so I presume they are correct.

Kenring

Danno wrote: »

Getting -10c and below in Ireland during winter can be defined as...

One climatological station reading a temperatures of -10c or below... something that would probably happen 3 or 4 times a decade in my estimation.

OR

Widespread -10c and below readings such as December 2010...

either way both are true outcomes. The widespread outcome will be what everyone expects to happen when reading predictions from K.Ring, MTC et all... this is the sword they fall on when the time comes to pass and people look back on the winter that was and the predictions that came before it.

I think those producing forecasts should bear this in mind, and especially look at population distributions across the island. Saying -10c will be reached in Ireland may not equate to the 2 million people in the immediate areas around Dublin, where as if -10c was recorded in south Leitrim - a home to 30,000 folk - it makes a huge huge difference.

I agree and have agreed not to use the word "widespread" in this forum going forward because it can be misinterpreted. It is why I named the particular counties of Armagh and Dublin in my post.
Perhaps a more accurate policy may be to refer to counties as north, south, southwest, central west etc., rather than all Ireland. Would that be more helpful?

pad199207

Im pretty sure Oak Park recorded negative double temps in 2009/10 and 2010/11. Correct me if im wrong please...

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I agree and have agreed not to use the word "widespread" in this forum going forward because it can be misinterpreted. It is why I named the particular counties of Armagh and Dublin in my post.
Perhaps a more accurate policy may be to refer to counties as north, south, southwest, central west etc., rather than all Ireland. Would that be more helpful?

Not providing such long range forecasts at all would be better imo, it saddens me when the likes of Electric Ireland email customers saying you predicted a cold winter, many people don't realise that you can't forecast that far ahead and believe these forecasts!

rickdangerouss

Villain wrote: »

Not providing such long range forecasts at all would be better imo, it saddens me when the likes of Electric Ireland email customers saying you predicted a cold winter, many people don't realise that you can't forecast that far ahead and believe these forecasts!

Electric Ireland, Sells the things that will heat people up in winter.
So, If they see that "forecaster A" has a following and presents a forecast that could increase the usage of Electricial items\heating, this might cause a email or two been sent to customers.

"forecaster A" does not have to be correct\wrong in anyway.

Mesut Ozil

Good times:

starskey77

jaffusmax your top in my book when it comes to predictions