RaboPro12 13/14 season thread

irishbucsfan

You would expect Leinster to finish 1st with them concentrating on the league now. Their game against Ulster would be tough but I can see them getting a LBP. I'd expect 2 wins and 2 bonus points, so that's 10 points leaving them on 79 at the end of the league.

Ulster are missing big players and that could be telling. The worst possible run in (I suppose the Leinster game could have been in the RDS to make it the worst possible). It could all hinge on how Munster do against Toulon, but I expect Munster to lose that game and so they will be focusing on the Rabo by the time Ulster go down to TP. So I would guess we'll see 1 win (against Leinster) and 2 bonus points from Ulster, leaving them on 71 points.

Munster have two easier games sandwiching the H Cup semi final. The fact they're both away from home means I'll predict they'll win both without BPs. I think they can beat Ulster at home as well (although as above, performance in H Cup could dictate that). So I think you could see 3 wins from Munster with no bonus points, leaving them on 75.

Glasgow have a really easy run in apart from the Ulster game. They don't need to win the Ulster game, but at home against a weakened Ulster team they certainly have a chance. They should beat the rest of those sides, and they should be targeting BPs at home. So for Glasgow I'm predicting 4 wins with 2 bonus points, leaving them on 78.

Ospreys have probably the easiest run in, and you would expect them to win all three games comfortably. Two of them are away from home so I'm guessing 2 BPs, leaving them on 70 and missing out.


So I think that'll leave us with semi finals of
Leinster v. Ulster
Glasgow v. Munster

But that is really dependent on some really important games between the playoff contenders. I think Ospreys are gone at this point.

durkadurka

Ulster certainly have three losable games.

awec

I think I'd take a trip to the RDS for the semi final. If we had some players back I'd fancy our chances.

Tox56

durkadurka wrote: »

Leinster's run in (69 points):
Treviso (H) 5, Ulster (A)1, Edinburgh (H) 5

Ulster's run in (65 points):
Glasgow (A)4, Leinster (H)4, Munster (A)1

Munster's run in (63 points):
Connacht (A)4, Edinburgh (A)5, Ulster (H)4

Glasgow's run in (60 points):
Ulster (H)1, Edinburgh (H)5, Treviso (A)4, Zebre (H)5

Ospreys' run in (56 points):
Dragons (A)4, Zebre (A)4, Connacht (H)5

Leinster - 80
Munster - 76
Glasgow - 75
Ulster - 74

Think Glasgow will surprise some people, I really rate them as a team. For Leinster it looks like Ulster or Glasgow in Dublin for the semi, and after the last two seasons (where Glasgow have come seriously close to winning in the RDS at the same stage and played some incredible rugby) theyre due a win, which tie is the worse of those 2 is not as obvious as youd think.

As we're out of Europe we'll be 100% focused but none of the possible games (if things go a certain way we could be very easily be playing any of the current top 4 in the semi) will be easy. Even if we finish top we're going to have 2 massive games if we want to win it

Eod100

So for Munster to get a home semi they need to win all their remaining games and hope Ulster beat Glasgow by more than 7. Then it'll be Munster on 75 (no tbp) and Glasgow on max 75 (3 tbp). Both level on matches won, so Munster go through on points difference.

Kinda forgot Ospreys are still kinda in the mix. Guess their win the other night and Ulster having a fairly horrible last few games keeps them in.

I'm gonna go with:

Leinster's run in (69 points):
Treviso (H) 5, Ulster (A)4, Edinburgh (H) 5

Ulster's run in (65 points):
Glasgow (A)4, Leinster (H)1, Munster (A)1

Munster's run in (63 points):
Connacht (A)4, Edinburgh (A)4, Ulster (H)4

Glasgow's run in (60 points):
Ulster (H)4, Edinburgh (H)4, Treviso (A)5, Zebre (H)5

Ospreys' run in (56 points):
Dragons (A)5, Zebre (A)5, Connacht (H)4

Leinster 83
Glasgow 78
Munster 75
Ulster 71

CatFromHue

While Ospreys only have 5 TBP they've scored the most tries in the league. I wouldn't be surprised if they got 3 try bonus point wins.

Ulster need to perform to be sure of their play off spot.

Now for the stat attack, Ulster have only won once in Glasgow since 09/10.

vienne86

I think the order will be

Leinster
Glasgow
Munster
Ulster

Ulster have an awful run in and need to be careful. Munster trip to Glasgow is very tough, and I would fancy Glasgow to win that. So it could be Leinster Glasgow final in the RDS. Leinster will need to tighten up and cut out the mistakes - and I am not as confident as I would normally be.

Eod100

matthew8 wrote: »

Munster could miss out on the playoffs by the looks of things. Ospreys should pick up 14 points meaning Munster will need to win 2 out of their 3 games. Not an easy task given 2 are away, the one home game is very difficult and their main focus is on Europe.

I'm doubtful that Munster will get a home semi but doubt they'll miss out on the play-offs altogether. If Ospreys get 14 points, Munster should win against Connacht and Edinburgh. Even if Ospreys get 15 points (which I don't see happening), 2 wins for Munster will put see them through. They'll both be on 71 points but Munster go through with more matches won.

Don't think it'll happen but think Ulster are more at risk of missing out on play-offs than Munster, their next 3 games will be tough very. I wouldn't be too shocked if they get 1 win and 2 lbps out of it.

CatFromHue

1 win and 2 LBP for Ulster will get them through. They'd finish up on 71 pts which is the max that Ospreys can get with 3BP wins but Ulster would finish on 15 wins and Ospreys on 14. When teams finish on the same number of points the next deciding factor is the number of wins.

CatFromHue

Is the Rabo going to run during RWC15?

The pool stages don't end 'til 10/11 Oct and the comp itself doesn't end until 31 Oct.

I know the Aviva will be starting late to accommodate it

durkadurka

It did last time anyhow. I think there were six games During the RWC.

CatFromHue

Yeah and the ITM Cup was run earlier in NZ that year so not to have any local rugby on during the comp.

There's a good few games on in Cardiff for RWC15 though.

It'd be funny if Cardiff ended up with a home game the same weekend as a RWC game in the Millenium!

Cookiemunster

CatFromHue wrote: »

Is the Rabo going to run during RWC15?

The pool stages don't end 'til 10/11 Oct and the comp itself doesn't end until 31 Oct.

I know the Aviva will be starting late to accommodate it

The Aviva ran during the 2011 RWC as did the Pro12 and Top14. This difference this time I suppose it that it's on in the same country and the IRB don't want any other games on there clashing with the RWC.

justsomebloke

Glasgow were imeness this evening and could well be the deserved winners this year

vienne86

justsomebloke wrote: »

Glasgow were imeness this evening and could well be the deserved winners this year

Ulster were not good tonight, but were unlucky that Glasgow were awarded a try, when the 'scorer' clearly thought he had not scored. I think a Leinster v Glasgow final looks on the cards.

justsomebloke

vienne86 wrote: »

Ulster were not good tonight, but were unlucky that Glasgow were awarded a try, when the 'scorer' clearly thought he had not scored. I think a Leinster v Glasgow final looks on the cards.

Ulster weren't unlucky about the try, they still would of lost without getting a bp.

Ye I think Glasgow are on course for a final but who they face I think is still a bit unclear as I don't think Leinster are as good as they need to be and should be this season

Swan Curry

Even if you factor in tiredness from the Heineken Cup,I don't see Munster losing to Glasgow twice in the space of about a month.

awec

Leinster v Glasgow must be the most likely final.

its_phil

awec wrote: »

Leinster v Glasgow must be the most likely final.

I don't mean any offence to the other 3 provinces but I would love Glasgow to win it. It would be fantastic for the game up there if they won it.

justsomebloke

its_phil wrote: »

I don't mean any offence to the other 3 provinces but I would love Glasgow to win it. It would be fantastic for the game up there if they won it.

Ye wouldn't begrudge them winning it, however unfortunately I don't know if it will actually help the game up there, as with the ospreys I just don't think it will do anything

errlloyd

justsomebloke wrote: »

Ye wouldn't begrudge them winning it, however unfortunately I don't know if it will actually help the game up there, as with the ospreys I just don't think it will do anything

I think the attitude towards the rabo particularly poor in Wales.

Hagz

Leinster v Munster final for me.

vienne86

justsomebloke wrote: »

Ulster weren't unlucky about the try, they still would of lost without getting a bp.

Ye I think Glasgow are on course for a final but who they face I think is still a bit unclear as I don't think Leinster are as good as they need to be and should be this season

I agree that Ulster were never going to get a bonus point playing like that, but I still think that Glasgow got a fortunate call from the video ref and were very lucky to be awarded that try......and Ulster were therefore unlucky with that decision.

I also agree that Leinster will need to sharpen up. Glasgow are very impressive.

legendary.xix

errlloyd wrote: »

I think the attitude towards the rabo particularly poor in Wales.

It'll have to change unless they are happy with 1 or 2 places in Europe's elite competition. I'm taking more notice of the rabo table now the bar has been raised somewhat. Teams can't just stroll in any more. It'll be interesting to see if stronger teams are named more often.

Glasgow have been going well. Two good results in their top 4 push.

thelad95

Could Glasgow nick top spot? They have three games left, at home to Edinburgh, away to Treviso and at home to Zebre. Could easily get 15 out of 15. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ulster beat Leinster and then even if Leinster get a bonus point win over Edinburgh on the last day, Glasgow would have more wins.

vienne86

thelad95 wrote: »

Could Glasgow nick top spot? They have three games left, at home to Edinburgh, away to Treviso and at home to Zebre. Could easily get 15 out of 15. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ulster beat Leinster and then even if Leinster get a bonus point win over Edinburgh on the last day, Glasgow would have more wins.

Glasgow could very well get top spot. Leinster will have to stay very focussed to come out on top. Losing bonus point against Ulster would be important. Mind you, Ulster are in trouble with injuries.......particularly at prop.

Taco Corp

if Glasgow finish first and get to the final, where would it be?

its_phil

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

if Glasgow finish first and get to the final, where would it be?

Ibrox or Celtic Park? I'd probably go if it was played in either of those grounds.

thelad95

its_phil wrote: »

Ibrox or Celtic Park? I'd probably go if it was played in either of those grounds.

Don't think so would make for a dead atmosphere. Murrayfield the most likely destination I reckon.

Edit: Just remembered Murrayfield is closed because of a maggot infection. How about the ironically named Rugby Park in Kilmarnock? About half an hour drive from Glasgow and capacity of 20000 odd.

Tox56

thelad95 wrote: »

Could Glasgow nick top spot? They have three games left, at home to Edinburgh, away to Treviso and at home to Zebre. Could easily get 15 out of 15. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ulster beat Leinster and then even if Leinster get a bonus point win over Edinburgh on the last day, Glasgow would have more wins.

No, Leinster can lose to Ulster (by 7 or less) and still be first even if Glasgow get maximum points from here on in.

It all depends on getting that losing bonus point in Ulster though