Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

eagle eye

I'd love if Connacht had a great game but just can't see it at the moment. Confidence has to be low after two heavy defeats and that Leinster defeat was to a mixture of second and third team players.

You have to think Leinster will have the firsts out for this game and they'll want a big win after what the seconds did.

Bitconfused

It doesn't seem that there is much interest in rugby betting on this site but this is the only thread I can find on the topic.

Ireland have Romania first up and are currently 53 point favs for that game. I'm thinking that Ireland will be playing some second choice players for this game and the number might be in the 30s come kick off so worth a bet now. Even if its a 5 month wait.

Any thoughts on what team is likely to play? I think the 53 is on the basis of the two full strength teams playing each other.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462910#Comment_120462910

Irelands seconds could easily put 70 points on Romania. Romania only qualified straight for the RWC due to Spain being docked points, which meant they didn't have to go through the last qualifier tournament.

The only reason that a 50+ point difference wouldn't be achieved is down to weather, if it's torrential then that would drag the spread down.

Personally I wouldn't be going near that bet until I had a good idea of the coming weather. On a dry track Ireland seconds could easily pass that 53 point spread.

Lost Ormond

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462910#Comment_120462910

Ireland will be playing a lot of their wider squad but 50 points now isnt too much even for them and i wouldnt see it as worth a bet now. not going to make so much more money now then waiting until closer to game

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462910#Comment_120462910

The other thing worth noting is that Ireland are going to this world cup with just 2 warmup games.

I'm guessing that was arranged so that Ireland can run reasonably strong teams against Romania and Tonga as a warmup. This will mean its not likely to be a complete 2nd string team.

Its worth noting that Romania lost to Portugal this year in the Rugby European championship this year and Spain last year.

In last years AIs they lost to Tonga, Samoa and Uruguay (beating Chile).

Lost Ormond

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463412#Comment_120463412

We have a third. playing Samoa in France August 26th afaik.

kuang1

What do people think about this... I'm no longer a betting man, and won't be betting on the RWC.

But Ireland's price is just... Wrong!

I'm not declaring that Ireland will win the World Cup, but 4th favourites at 9/2?

Thats a value bet imo.

I think we're more like a 3/1 or 7/2 shot.

Edit: these prices are live as I post btw. So SA hammered NZ last night, and this is the current state of play.

kuang1

And if I could, I'd lay England all day long at 11/1

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121028618#Comment_121028618

England are god awful.

Your have more value in someone like Fiji coming out of that side.

Even aussies at 10/1 are better value

rekluse

Anyone any fancies for the first weekend round of matches? Very much a casual fan so wouldn't feel too confident in picking any selections myself! Cheers.

Loafing Oaf

Have gone big on this Sky request-a-bet

Either Will Jordan, Damian Penaud, Cheslin Kolbe or James Lowe to be outright top tryscorer @ 7/4

Also a few more mosty tryscorer-themed ones

Mateo Carreras @ 28/1 Top Tournament Tryscorer

France win World Cup, Thomas Ramos outright top points scorer, Fiji to reach quarter-finals @ 22/1

South Africa to win World Cup & Canan Moodie outright top tryscorer @ 80/1

New Zealand to Win the Tournament & Mark Telea Top Tournament Tryscorer @ 33/1

And a couple of top team tryscorer doubles: Arendse/Villiere and Bielle-Biarey/Tabutsadze (try saying that after a few scoops😝)

Plus a couple more ludicrous longshot request-a-bets that I'll post if they're looking remotely likely to come off...

sydthebeat

my bets for the weekend

Draw (-1) France v New Zealand (ie france to win by 1 point) @20/1

Double Georgian +23 / Fiji +9 @ 2.6/1

Double Argentina and Fiji to win @ 8/1 (placed a few weeks ago)

Double Argentina and Fiji to win @ 11/2

franglan

Two bets for a bit of interest in Romania game:

Romania over 4.5 @10/11

Romania Ireland Under 79.5 points 8/15

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121085499#Comment_121085499

Few more to back these up

Bundee Aki @ 16/1

Top Tournament Tryscorer

QFs = Wales v Argentina, Ireland v NZ, England v Fiji, France v SA. Semi-finals = Wales v Ireland, England v SA. Ireland to beat SA in final @ 28/1

Ireland To Win the RWC & Jonny Sexton Most Outright Tournament Points @ 6/1

1st South Africa, 2nd Ireland @ 8/1

Straight Forecast

Loafing Oaf

On a qf double of Fainga'anuku and Rees-Zammit to score a try and win

Lucy8080

I took a punt on Ireland to score a try in the first ten mins. of each half tonight @13/2. Fingers crossed!

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121028754#Comment_121028754

England have looked good in this tournament. Don't mind the last result, it's clear the whole squad was given a weeks rest.

They looked awful in the six nations but you have to remember that Borthwick only got the job in December so hadn't much time with them before then.

They go into the QF fresher than any other team in the competition. If they get an easy game there then they are serious opponent in the SF.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121238063#Comment_121238063

We'll I'm already in profit for picking Fiji to get out of their pool (12/5) so a few quid on Fiji to win @ 13/5 isn't going to break the bank

Loafing Oaf

Stuck a fiver on the Boks AET

NZ win and Will Jordan to score a try - 11/4

Jordan MOTM - 16/1

sydthebeat

might not have too many betting enthusiasts here, but i find early in the week of champions cup pool games you can find some good value in some of the spread bets, pending updates about weather and squad selection.

as a general rule most french teams dont travel to well, bayonne being the prime example this year. 4 home wins and 5 away losses. It will be interesting to see if they start Lopez at 10, if they dont, they are completely throwing the game. Munster -24 currently is good value as they are giving settled weather for sat evening.

toulouse' status in europe i unquestioned, and welsh rugby is in the absolute pits at the moment, so the 26 point spread in favor of toulouse also seems like good value. However theres a band of wet weather to come in after 3pm, so it might be worth waiting a little closer to team naming time to see if the weather pushes out a bit.

im not touching Leinster v LAR. neither side is really humming right now, despite leinster being 6 from 7 right now. The chopping and changing in Leinster has already shown to be not as smooth this year as it has been in previous years. Plus the injury to RB means leinster will be starting with an out half who has never started a HC game before, and what a place to make your first start! I cant call it. My gut tells me LAR will win, but i actually think the appointment of Matthew carley as ref is a big plus for Leinster. he does not allow mayhem at the break down the way barnes has in the last two finals. In this case an overly fussy referee suits us.

the other game that i think there is value in is Toulon v exeter. Exeter squad this year is full of kids. They still play a power based game, which works for them to a degree in the premiership as standards and skills are not as high a pervious, but will not work away to a massive, grizzled toulon side who are humming away in the top 14. Toulon by a bagful here.

if bordeaux send a decent side over to connacht, the current -4 to connacht could look very silly. Putting a bet on here is flipping a coin in my opinion.

its difficlut to predict how interested the stormers will be away from home, so im not touching that one either.

all home teams will be chasing 5 points, as theres no home and away element, and points difference could easily be the determining factor in some pool positions.

so my bets for the weekend is

munster -24 @ 10/11

toulon -13 @ evens

double munster and toulon @ 2.64/1

sydthebeat

FFS i wasnt expecting Munster to put the kids out. Bayonne are weaker but there still plenty of good players in there with Bruni, bosch, machenaud, tatafu etc

the spread has dropped by 2 points since.

eagle eye

Bordeaux have about five starters out against Connacht. I like Connacht for swim somewhere in the 11-18 point range.

Northampton tonight

Furbank, Sleightholme, Hendy, Freeman, Dingwakk, Smith, Mitchell, Graham, Scott-Young, Lawes, Moon, Locket, Hill, Langdon, Walker.

Team that beat Saracens,

Furbank (capt); Seabrook, Freeman, Dingwall, Sleightholme; Smith, James; Waller, Matavesi, Davison, Munga, Coles, Lawes, Pearson, Graham.

So I'm on Connacht and Glasgow tonight, both to best the handicap.

Love Toulon as mentioned above. Need to take a closer look at other games.

If not for their poor start to the top 14 I'd be all over La Rochelle.

eagle eye

Well I got those games slightly wrong. ☺️

sydthebeat

I know it's after timing, but at 5-12 with Mack Hansen after going off, I took Bordeaux -3 @10/11

Should have gone WAY wider, but hey. A wins a win.

I'm putting profit on Leicester -16 @10/11

sydthebeat

Munster dropped 4 points, and I'm very worried now that they won't cover the 24 point spread.

At this stage I'm hoping for an early red card

50HX

Bath/racing straight double is just under 2/1

sydthebeat

Well Toulon are crap .....

franglan

Bayonne +28 @1/2 Boyles. It's wet windy and won't be overly expansive stuff.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121475447#Comment_121475447

They blew it, lots of opportunities deep in the Exeter 22 and each time they left with no points.

That's in the second half.