Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

dsmythy

Us Dubs have a shield for these northerly moving chaps.

whitebriar

vickers209 wrote: »

Wicklow maybe?? Or will it die as it heads overland

Probably,Looks like it,if it holds it together.
Probably no sferics by then just rain though.

pad199207

A good clear patch over The SE atm and i would imagine the temps would be much warmer then earlier, so maybe that could give it a boost!

up to 25c here now with good sunshine

maquiladora

3 strikes in the past 20 minutes, 0 in the last 10 minutes...

If only conditions were a bit better. :rolleyes:

sunbabe08

I need sum kind of pay off for this heat. A good oul fashioned thunder storm would do me

rc28

First of the showers about the make landfall in Wexford.

atsbury

rc28 wrote: »

First of the showers about the make landfall in Wexford.

Beginning to cloud over here in Wexford now.

maquiladora

No lightning in the past 20 minutes.

maquiladora

It's fizzling out but producing some lightning again as it nears the coast.

whitebriar

Sunny in Arklow,but looking on the south horizon,cloud tops can be seen.
This is the usual direction we get our thunder imports.
I'll update in about 2hrs.

whitebriar

just to update,I can see the first shower,in the distance now.
I've emailed a pic of one of the cloud top edges to taken around 7pm,the baby is much closer now though.
If they see it in the next while I've asked them to edit it into this post.

pad199207

Cell has practically lost all convective characteristics now, as usual in this country!

whitebriar

pad199207 wrote: »

Cell has practically lost all convective characteristics now, as usual in this country!

not surprised looking at it from here,I can only see the first little one,but we'll see if it gets here

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Cell has practically lost all convective characteristics now, as usual in this country!

In fairness though conditions really weren't favorable there at all today, I'm surprised it even did as well as it did. Things look like improving from tomorrow onwards, not looking as good they were a few days ago and not as good as the UK will get - but we'll take what we can get!

pad199207

Latest UK Met Office Aviation charts gives us Showers and CB clouds tonight over Ireland. Cant post the pic here

pad199207

Noticing some new convection getting going off Cork heading NE, at this stage now its really knit picking!

sunbabe08

ugh, all those lightening strikes off the coast :(:(

Harps

The Norwegian model has those showers intensifying again later this evening and tonight, doesn't look like anything too intense but there might be something to play for yet

Bejubby

Just looking at the radar from met.ie and it shows some clouds moving in over sw wexford where I am ,and looking out the window facing south the sky is a real dark black grey colour.
Havent seen any lightening but it looks like it should produce some sparks.
Fingers crossed!

RobertKK

What is the name of that cloud?
Hope the pic isn't too big...it was taken when I had hope for some rain/lightning.

Harps

Some impressive cells in Northern France at the moment, interesting to see if they can survive the Channel crossing

torrentum

Bejubby wrote: »

Just looking at the radar from met.ie and it shows some clouds moving in over sw wexford where I am ,and looking out the window facing south the sky is a real dark black grey colour.
Havent seen any lightening but it looks like it should produce some sparks.
Fingers crossed!

Im in south Kilkenny and the southern sky looks dark and threatening. it was that sky made me check in here to see if any lightning had started anywhere.
Nothing here.
AM/LW radio is full of static though.

Bejubby

torrentum wrote: »

Im in south Kilkenny and the southern sky looks dark and threatening. it was that sky made me check in here to see if any lightning had started anywhere.
Nothing here.
AM/LW radio is full of static though.

Now that you mention static the baby monitor is getting some interference but no strikes.
It has started raining though.

whitebriar

Raining big drops here in Arklow now.

mike65

Nothing here during a heavy shower, I can only reckon the drops are bouncing off the lawns.

maquiladora

Bejubby wrote: »

Now that you mention static the baby monitor is getting some interference but no strikes.
It has started raining though.

The nearest strikes to us at the moment are in the English Channel. Nothing happened around Ireland right now.

Bejubby

maquiladora wrote: »

The nearest strikes to us at the moment are in the English Channel. Nothing happened around Ireland right now.

I know that ye,the static im getting on the monitor is just normal radio interference.
Clouds here now have broken up and its stopped raining.
Theres a lovely smell of wet oozing from the ground now and its lovely:)

maquiladora

This can change, but at the moment we should see some thunderstorms kicking off tomorrow afternoon especially in northwestern areas.



Then on Tuesday more widespread storms but the western half of the country probably most at risk.



Not as much energy or instability shown as the storms in the UK and France will have, but we saw this morning a big storm sitting off the southwest coast for hours that was putting out hundreds of strikes per hour with fairly modest CAPE and LI values, so you never know, we could get some severe ones in the days ahead.

Wednesday might be interesting too but things change more the further ahead you look so no point looking at that yet.

maquiladora

Estofex forecast for 6am Monday - 6am Tuesday has parts of Ireland under a Level 1.



Just highlighting the parts from the discussion that apply to us :

Initiation will occur within numerous time frames. First, showers and thunderstorms probably evolve over Ireland and UK before noon. This activity is forecast to grow upscale during the afternoon hours and numerous northward moving thunderstorm clusters affect Ireland, UK and Scotland.

Once again, a similar severe risk (large hail, strong wind gusts and heavy to excesive rainfall amounts) is forecast with the widespread overnight activity within the complete level 1 area. Stronger shear might support a few well organized multicells, which continue until 06Z while drifting to the NE.

vickers209

How are things looking for today?