N.I census correction,,catholics even closer

COYW

gurramok wrote: »

That's in your opinion which is based on what? At least we have valid opinion of 2 Nationalist towns at hand.

Wow, I didn't realise that. Talk about clutching at straws! Ask the same question/s in two Unionist towns and you will get a different response. The BBC Spotlight poll conducted in February, which questioned members of both communities, showed that N.I. is secure as part of the union.

BBC poll article

Also, given that fact that the RoI is currently the laughing stock of Europe; right back in the grips of a recession, compared to the fact that NI is on the brink of receiving a nice big chunk of funding from London, as gallag stated, I would severely question the sanity of any citizen of N.I. who believes that moving away from the UK is a good idea for the foreseeable future.

gurramok

COYW wrote: »

Wow, I didn't realise that. Talk about clutching at straws! Ask the same question/s in two Unionist towns and you will get a different response. The BBC Spotlight poll conducted in February, which questioned members of both communities, showed that N.I. is secure as part of the union.

BBC poll article.

I'd like to see a RTE poll just for balance of state broadcasters. And the electoral poll has a damn more count of people involved than any survey.

Dunno why you say 2 Unionist towns, its damn obvious they would be against it at the moment, its irrelevant to the point at hand that an electoral poll of 2 Nationalist towns found overwhelming desire for a UI.

COYW

gurramok wrote: »

I'd like to see a RTE poll just for balance of state broadcasters. And the electoral poll has a damn more count of people involved than any survey.

Firstly, it's a decision for the people of N.I. first and foremost. If they ever decide that it is something they desire, they it is up to the people of the RoI to evaluate the idea.

Secondly, the electoral poll was of a whopping 1,000 people in the notorious republican heartland of Crossmaglen in South Armagh. It is about as good an indicator as asking the people on the Shankhill.

NinjaK

Good news, lets hope it continues on this trend. The sooner the stolen land returns to Gaelic rule the better.

gurramok

COYW wrote: »

Firstly, it's a decision for the people of N.I. first and foremost. If they ever decide that it is something they desire, they it is up to the people of the RoI to evaluate the idea.

Secondly, the electoral poll was of a whopping 1,000 people in the notorious republican heartland of Crossmaglen in South Armagh. It is about as good an indicator as asking the people on the Shankhill.

Huh? BBC is a British broadcaster. God knows how they performed that poll.

So what if its Crossmaglen? People live there, respect their decision as part of the Nationalist community, its called democracy.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

What? So you have no basis to assume the Nationalist community do not want re-unification?!
As well as this electoral poll, they do vote for UI parties like SDLP and SF.

Thats not saying a lot either given that voting is based down along tribal lines in NI.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Huh? BBC is a British broadcaster. God knows how they performed that poll.

So what if its Crossmaglen? People live there, respect their decision as part of the Nationalist community, its called democracy.

If you believe the BBC was biased by all means send them an email. I'm sure they'll be happy to set you right. If you're still not convinced there and think you have a reasonable case Ofcom don't seem to be too busy atm.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Thats not saying a lot either given that voting is based down along tribal lines in NI.

And you reinforce my point, thanks.

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

If you believe the BBC was biased by all means send them an email. I'm sure they'll be happy to set you right. If you're still not convinced there and think you have a reasonable case Ofcom don't seem to be too busy atm.

Selecting randomners based across the region based on religion is well random.

At least the local electoral poll is quite an accurate barometer of opinion within the Nationalist community in contrast to certain surveys.

pablomakaveli

gurramok wrote: »

And you reinforce my point, thanks.

Your twisting my words. A vote for Sinn Fein or SDLP isnt an automatic vote for a UI. But given the only other real options are the DUP or UUP it's not surprising that someone from a nationalist background might feel their vote is better spent on SF or SDLP since they're on the same side so to speak.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Selecting randomners based across the region based on religion is well random.

At least the local electoral poll is quite an accurate barometer of opinion within the Nationalist community in contrast to certain surveys.

Do you understand how randomness works? The idea is since you survey a wide number of people you lower the error associated with selecting a random number of people.

No offence to the good people of Crossmaglen but they don't represent the new urban middle class Catholics who inhabit Derry and Belfast, call themselves Northern Irish and couldn't give two fiddles about unification.

This guy is the face of the new Catholics.

gurramok

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Your twisting my words. A vote for Sinn Fein or SDLP isnt an automatic vote for a UI. But given the only other real options are the DUP or UUP it's not surprising that someone from a nationalist background might feel their vote is better spent on SF or SDLP since they're on the same side so to speak.

They are Nationalist parties and Nationalists want a UI. If they wanted to stay in the UK, they would become Unionists as Iwasfrozen said! http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85279410&postcount=54

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Do you understand how randomness works? The idea is since you survey a wide number of people you lower the error associated with selecting a random number of people.

No offence to the good people of Crossmaglen but they don't represent the new urban middle class Catholics who inhabit Derry and Belfast, call themselves Northern Irish and couldn't give two fiddles about unification.

This guy is the face of the new Catholics.

A survey will never equal an actual electoral poll.

Why are you politicising a prominent golfer? That is not right as politics should not be in sport and I won't raise to your level of using celebs to support my argument.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

A survey will never equal an actual electoral poll.

Why are you politicising a prominent golfer? That is not right as politics should not be in sport and I won't raise to your level of using celebs to support my argument.

No it won't but it is a good indication.

The national issue will ultimately be a question of culture. Celebrities are a powerful medium of transmitting culture and a prominent (and successful) catholic who proudly bears the label Northern Irish will lead many Northern Catholics to the same conclusion.

Rory McIlroy has done more to secure the Union then many unionist politicians.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

No it won't but it is a good indication.

The national issue will ultimately be a question of culture. Celebrities are a powerful medium of transmitting culture and a prominent (and successful) catholic who proudly bears the label Northern Irish will lead many Northern Catholics to the same conclusion.

Rory McIlroy has done more to secure the Union then many unionist politicians.

Good god, I don't think Rory has actually commented on the Union yet and he shouldn't have to like all the other athletes in sports on either side.

You do know there are prominent Protestant Nationalists also?! We even have them here on boards! Why oh why you keep using religion is beyond me, perhaps the media is at fault here influencing your opinion when they keep using religious tags.

If you have to use a celebrity to advance your agenda that means there is desperation in the air.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Good god, I don't think Rory has actually commented on the Union yet and he shouldn't have to like all the other athletes in sports on either side.

You do know there are prominent Protestant Nationalists also?! We even have them here on boards! Why oh why you keep using religion is beyond me, perhaps the media is at fault here influencing your opinion when they keep using religious tags.

If you have to use a celebrity to advance your agenda that means there is desperation in the air.

Wait first of all I entered this thread to admonish another poster for using the Catholic = Nationalist, Protestant = Unionist so I don't know were you got that opinion of me but it's wrong.

Secondly I rely on nothing but facts to prove my position. I merely recognise the importance of culture in the national question and celebrities as being powerful transmitters of culture.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Wait first of all I entered this thread to admonish another poster for using the Catholic = Nationalist, Protestant = Unionist so I don't know were you got that opinion of me but it's wrong.

Secondly I rely on nothing but facts to prove my position. I merely recognise the importance of culture in the national question and celebrities as being powerful transmitters of culture.

Have another look at your post #71

Plenty of religious references there. The culture you mention seems to be religious rather than political.

No offence to the good people of Crossmaglen but they don't represent the new urban middle class Catholics who inhabit Derry and Belfast, call themselves Northern Irish and couldn't give two fiddles about unification.

This guy is the face of the new Catholics.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Have another look at your post #71

Plenty of religious references there. The culture you mention seems to be religious rather than political.

Of course. I'm not going to say nationalist because a nationalist who does not support unification is no true nationalist. The point I was making is many catholics are turning away from nationalism.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Of course. I'm not going to say nationalist because a nationalist who does not support unification is no true nationalist. The point I was making is many catholics are turning away from nationalism.

In that case there would be increased support for Unionist parties. That has not happened.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

In that case there would be increased support for Unionist parties. That has not happened.

Not true because again you have to take in the cultural element. A catholic who has turned away from nationalism is still very unlikely to ever vote for a unionist party. This is why we must be weary of falling into the trap of thinking a vote for a nationalist party equals a vote for unification.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Not true because again you have to take in the cultural element. A catholic who has turned away from nationalism is still very unlikely to ever vote for a unionist party. This is why we must be weary of falling into the trap of thinking a vote for a nationalist party equals a vote for unification.

Who will they vote for then? Alliance me thinks as they have quite a number of on the fence "cultural Catholics" as you may call them.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

Who will they vote for then? Alliance me thinks as they have quite a number of on the fence "cultural Catholics" as you may call them.

They wil continue to vote for SF and SDLP as they already do but don't equate a vote for a nationalist party to a vote for unification.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

They wil continue to vote for SF and SDLP as they already do but don't equate a vote for a nationalist party to a vote for unification.

So they are no longer Nationalists as you just said earlier and your own Spotlight poll shows some vote for Alliance, that's at odds with everything you have said.

gallag

gurramok wrote: »

So they are no longer Nationalists as you just said earlier and your own Spotlight poll shows some vote for Alliance, that's at odds with everything you have said.

Its not really that hard to understand, someone who votes for the sdlp/sf may also vote no to a ui, its just sf/sdlp may look to be a better vote on a local level, was there not a poll lately showing a high percentage of sf voters would vote no to a ui?

ardmacha

This is why we must be weary of falling into the trap of thinking a vote for a nationalist party equals a vote for unification.

What trap? A person voting for a nationalist party wants unification and they want their party to deliver that. However, this does not mean that they think the job is completed yet, hard work is still needed on the details.

Iwasfrozen

ardmacha wrote: »

What trap? A person voting for a nationalist party wants unification and they want their party to deliver that. However, this does not mean that they think the job is completed yet, hard work is still needed on the details.

Not always.

Iwasfrozen

gurramok wrote: »

So they are no longer Nationalists as you just said earlier and your own Spotlight poll shows some vote for Alliance, that's at odds with everything you have said.

gallag wrote: »

Its not really that hard to understand, someone who votes for the sdlp/sf may also vote no to a ui, its just sf/sdlp may look to be a better vote on a local level, was there not a poll lately showing a high percentage of sf voters would vote no to a ui?

This. I know it may be hard to make yourself understand something you don't want to but the concept isn't difficult.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

This. I know it may be hard to make yourself understand something you don't want to but the concept isn't difficult.

I'd say those SF voters that said no in that poll did so because of the dire economic state of the South at the moment. Remember the question in that BBC poll asked if a referendum was held tomorrow. It had little to do with long term political aspirations. Those arguing against a UI are reading way too much into it.

Iwasfrozen

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

I'd say those SF voters that said no in that poll did so because of the dire economic state of the South at the moment. Remember the question in that BBC poll asked if a referendum was held tomorrow. It had little to do with long term political aspirations. Those arguing against a UI are reading way too much into it.

The referendum can be held tomorrow and unification delayed for years. The question was only to gauge desire for unification amongst the population.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The referendum can be held tomorrow and unification delayed for years. The question question was only to gauge desire for unification amongst the population.

Wasn't asked in the question. The wording of a question can influence an outcome. Imagine that question with: "if the RoI was still a booming economy and the UK was in recession?" in it instead of "tomorrow".

Do you think the result would still have been the same amongst nationalists that were polled?

Iwasfrozen

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Wasn't asked in the question. The wording of a question can influence an outcome. Imagine that question with: "if the RoI was still a booming economy and the UK was in recession?" in it instead of "tomorrow".

Do you think the result would still have been the same amongst nationalists that were polled?

Nope. Terminology is extremely important in politics but I don't think the BBC's wording was outrageously biased enough to affect the outcome to any great extent.