Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Nothing difficult at all about what the current processors have done - growing a terminal commodity business from a monopoly purchasing position is hardly rocket science, and if you can't make a success of it when you have investment capital (as well as milk) on tap from your supplier base you need either your head or your books examining carefully.

Correct.

The incessant backslapping within the industry is not earned...
When/if there is a prolonged low world market price, there will be entrepreneurs that will step up to the challenge (hopefully!).

mahoney_j

Arrabawn price 27.5 cent vat inc .reverting back to our usual bottom of the pile position despite all the waffle re natural gas and spin put on things at agm.... I

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

Arrabawn price 27.5 cent vat inc .reverting back to our usual bottom of the pile position despite all the waffle re natural gas and spin put on things at agm.... I

Tbf MJ I think ye did well to stick it so long. Managed to hold price past peak no mean feat in this climate.

Is there a collection charge in Arra?

Wonder what the coffers are like now? No MSA may not be a great move if other coops start to raise price quicker

frazzledhome

Can anyone put an educated guess on their milk price at this stage?

I think 35c will knock it out for us. That's from January

stanflt

frazzledhome wrote: »

Can anyone put an educated guess on their milk price at this stage?

I think 35c will knock it out for us. That's from January

I'll get out the calculator later- should be 35-36 for 15 milk

16milk might not be as Rosey

Liquid contract and baileys and fixed price really saving us

mahoney_j

frazzledhome wrote: »

Tbf MJ I think ye did well to stick it so long. Managed to hold price past peak no mean feat in this climate.

Is there a collection charge in Arra?

Wonder what the coffers are like now? No MSA may not be a great move if other coops start to raise price quicker

We did but bled coffers dry by doing so and now running option less .there was a Coll charge of 0.6 cent per litre but this was dropped on May 1.on the msa I outlined that many times ,coop is wide open to loose a big pool of milk,a lot of lads that left ,for a lot of good reasons I might add had to put up with some crap since they left.itvwas a long term decision and I for one think time will prove them right.

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

Can anyone put an educated guess on their milk price at this stage?

I think 35c will knock it out for us. That's from January

Reckon 35/36 for the yr

Hopefully

kevthegaff

mahoney_j wrote: »

We did but bled coffers dry by doing so and now running option less .there was a Coll charge of 0.6 cent per litre but this was dropped on May 1.on the msa I outlined that many times ,coop is wide open to loose a big pool of milk,a lot of lads that left ,for a lot of good reasons I might add had to put up with some crap since they left.itvwas a long term decision and I for one think time will prove them right.

U may be right if they can finance the shares this year to obtain the top up, abit unfair on current glanb members who have invested in the company long term.

mahoney_j

Who the fook is this lad trying to convince .wecwere ranked 10/12 coops on price in 2014 a record price year .

Cow Porter

mahoney_j wrote: »

Who the fook is this lad trying to convince .wecwere ranked 10/12 coops on price in 2014 a record price year .

what does he mean help from the government

frazzledhome

kevthegaff wrote: »

U may be right if they can finance the shares this year to obtain the top up, abit unfair on current glanb members who have invested in the company long term.

Tbf Kev, Glanbia shareholders don't have any problems with new guys sharing up. The problem was where to locate the shares.

There are suppliers who've been supplying for years that aren't members as well as new entrants that need to be catered for. The trick was to set a price that would entice sellers and not cripple buyers.

mahoney_j

Cow Porter wrote: »

what does he mean help from the government

Your guess is as good as mine ,my opinion is that we need to let the market bottom itself out so that recovery will be quicker ,dumping a load of product into intervention aint the way to go hopefully we're getting near a market floor but I can't see any signs yet .reports coming out of New Zealand that a farm gate price of $3 75 per kg Ms ewuivelant of 16.5 cent per litre is on cards for their upcoming season .markets less dairy product simple as .at least we're heading into latter half of our season with solids rising,big bank of quality winter feed and very favourable weather for grass growth currently .hopefully by next April/may markets will have rebounded and supply/demand of product reversed

jaymla627

mahoney_j wrote: »

Your guess is as good as mine ,my opinion is that we need to let the market bottom itself out so that recovery will be quicker ,dumping a load of product into intervention aint the way to go hopefully we're getting near a market floor but I can't see any signs yet .reports coming out of New Zealand that a farm gate price of $3 75 per kg Ms ewuivelant of 16.5 cent per litre is on cards for their upcoming season .markets less dairy product simple as .at least we're heading into latter half of our season with solids rising,big bank of quality winter feed and very favourable weather for grass growth currently .hopefully by next April/may markets will have rebounded and supply/demand of product reversed

Going to be intresting to see what happens over their to lads swimming in debt, they where just scraping through last season hoping things turned around for this season but it's just got worse...
I know the banks are pretty lenient out their re debt repayments etc but they simply can't have the reserves to bail out lads/defer loans the way things are heading

frazzledhome

jaymla627 wrote: »

Going to be intresting to see what happens over their to lads swimming in debt, they where just scraping through last season hoping things turned around for this season but it's just got worse...
I know the banks are pretty lenient out their re debt repayments etc but they simply can't have the reserves to bail out lads/defer loans the way things are heading

House property bubble there also. when that bursts you'll see the bankers teeth

Deepsouthwest

Chatting to a friend of mine the other night, (Irish lad) married and living in NZ for 10 yrs. He reckons the NZ public have little sympathy for their farmers anymore. Typical example he was saying was :farmer milking 500 cows doing v well, sells his farm for €5m, buys another farm to milk 1000 cows worth €10, but he pays €12/13m, know he's crying to anyone who'll listen to him cos he can't make his payments.
Sounds like the developers in this country 5 yrs ago, and we didn't have much pity for them.
The NZ story is all driven by over ambition and dare I say it maybe greed.
Is the same thing going to happen here?

visatorro

It is happening here already. no doubt that greed and ego are the main driving forces. I think greed is a bigger threat to individual farmers than price volatility

Timmaay

I don't think so, the problem here is land is too over inflated from an agriculture return point of view. If I was going to sell the farm here I'd be reinvesting whatever money in something that is alot more lucrative than dairying here. I'd probably consider agriculture in another country 1stly 2bh, somewhere with a much better return on investment.

jaymla627

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Chatting to a friend of mine the other night, (Irish lad) married and living in NZ for 10 yrs. He reckons the NZ public have little sympathy for their farmers anymore. Typical example he was saying was :farmer milking 500 cows doing v well, sells his farm for €5m, buys another farm to milk 1000 cows worth €10, but he pays €12/13m, know he's crying to anyone who'll listen to him cos he can't make his payments.
Sounds like the developers in this country 5 yrs ago, and we didn't have much pity for them.
The NZ story is all driven by over ambition and dare I say it maybe greed.
Is the same thing going to happen here?

If milk had stayed above 30 cent for this year, alot of lads might well of went in of the deep end, as it stands now I'd say a good few plans for extra cows/bigger parlours/new sheds will of been shelved....

orm0nd

jaymla627 wrote: »

If milk had stayed above 30 cent for this year, alot of lads might well of went in of the deep end, as it stands now I'd say a good few plans for extra cows/bigger parlours/new sheds will of been shelved....

was chatting to my digger contractor yesterday, last year he done about 4 layouts & also a lot reclamation / drainage for dairy guys

this year it's all the cattle men that's doing work

whelan2

jaymla627 wrote: »

Going to be intresting to see what happens over their to lads swimming in debt, they where just scraping through last season hoping things turned around for this season but it's just got worse...
I know the banks are pretty lenient out their re debt repayments etc but they simply can't have the reserves to bail out lads/defer loans the way things are heading

i will just worry about my own debts and let the rest of them work away

Deepsouthwest

orm0nd wrote: »

was chatting to my digger contractor yesterday, last year he done about 4 layouts & also a lot reclamation / drainage for dairy guys

this year it's all the cattle men that's doing work

Swings and roundabouts, that's life! To be fair the beef lads have been waiting a long time for their day in the sun. I certainly wont begrudge them

jaymla627

Cull cow prices in the back end will be a great help too for us, cows here are in super nick if beef price holds it will be a great boast for cash flow

Pacoa

I'd probably consider agriculture in another country 1stly 2bh, somewhere with a much better return on investment.

America. Was just reading an article in the irish dairy farmer magazine bout fella who went to america in 2009 and set up grazing herd. It said for every 1euro he took with him he now had 190. A 29% annual return i think it said.

orm0nd

jaymla627 wrote: »

Cull cow prices in the back end will be a great help too for us, cows here are in super nick if beef price holds it will be a great boast for cash flow

reckon there will be record numbers

Pacoa

cows here are in super nick if beef price holds it will be a great boast for cash flow

and a great reducer of milk production worldwide i hope. We're lucky the beef price is as high as it is but will it last with all the cow culling going on?

Milked out

Pacoa wrote: »

and a great reducer of milk production worldwide i hope. We're lucky the beef price is as high as it is but will it last with all the cow culling going on?

Pudsey may come in here but was he commenting that cull cow thru put is ahead all the time, price may hold till the spring on beef side

jaymla627

orm0nd wrote: »

reckon there will be record numbers

Will be the first year scanning here, that I'm hoping certain ladies are empty, have lots of heifers coming through so they're not really needed

Timmaay

Pacoa wrote: »

America. Was just reading an article in the irish dairy farmer magazine bout fella who went to america in 2009 and set up grazing herd. It said for every 1euro he took with him he now had 190. A 29% annual return i think it said.

Just read that today also ha, thats what sparked my post!

Afew of yous were talking about the milk price paid on average from Jan to May, I've just worked out mine, 32.6c/l. Not nearly as good as some of the others who posted up. My problem is always the early lactation solids, and no Jan/Feb surplus milk bonus.

Actually while I'm messing around with excel, I've just fired in projections for milk supply for the rest of the year, and assumed that I am going to be paid 28cent (plus bonus for nov/dec). It would leave the average milk price for the full year just over 30cent for me.

jaymla627

Timmaay wrote: »

Just read that today also ha, thats what sparked my post!

Afew of yous were talking about the milk price paid on average from Jan to May, I've just worked out mine, 32.6c/l. Not nearly as good as some of the others who posted up. My problem is always the early lactation solids, and no Jan/Feb surplus milk bonus.

Actually while I'm messing around with excel, I've just fired in projections for milk supply for the rest of the year, and assumed that I am going to be paid 28cent (plus bonus for nov/dec). It would leave the average milk price for the full year just over 30cent for me.

I'd say a base of 24 cent for November might be more realistic, working of a base price here of 25 cent a litre for july/August months as a non - shared up glanbia supplier in my calculations

stanflt

jaymla627 wrote: »

If milk had stayed above 30 cent for this year, alot of lads might well of went in of the deep end, as it stands now I'd say a good few plans for extra cows/bigger parlours/new sheds will of been shelved....

150 cubicles going in this autumn- new parlour in the next two years costing more than the one that was in the journal today

When prices are low it really shows that you can afford to expand if you have a profitable system