Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kevthegaff

16.1 litres per day
protein 3.49
fat 3.95
scc 310
tbc 5 lowest ive ever had!
1kg per day

Cows have dropped here the last 2 weeks, feeding less than a kg just to get them down to the parlour themselves and a threat of sl.
Any word on the price for Augusts lads? Scc is too high so will cull in the next 3 weeks, have an idea of the culprits so will test them

dublinlady79

Hey every one, We were having a family chat round the dinner table last nite back in the home place. There was one point that we all had different views on and seeing as its lunch time and I'm a lil bored I thought id share it and see how people feel. Does any one else think the national dairy council mark is an udder joke? My cousin works in a milk factory in the border counties he was telling us of northern ireland milk trucks coming to the factory and then going out to shops with the NDC logo on the bottles. Whats it all for any way? We supply a company that has factorys north and south so how does that work?

people build borders for people, nature crosses all devides!

bob charles

personally would like to see Ireland and the Uk marketed together, would be good for the food industry

mf240

bob charles wrote: »

personally would like to see Ireland and the Uk marketed together, would be good for the food industry

I'd be inclined to agree.

Bactidiaryl

dublinlady79 wrote: »

Hey every one, We were having a family chat round the dinner table last nite back in the home place. There was one point that we all had different views on and seeing as its lunch time and I'm a lil bored I thought id share it and see how people feel. Does any one else think the national dairy council mark is an udder joke? My cousin works in a milk factory in the border counties he was telling us of northern ireland milk trucks coming to the factory and then going out to shops with the NDC logo on the bottles. Whats it all for any way? We supply a company that has factorys north and south so how does that work?

people build borders for people, nature crosses all devides!

Dublin lady did you set up this account today and post the same thing twice on different threads just to have a pop at the dairy industry in this country. It's not up to us to decide on borders, we leave that up to the politicians

red bull

Only milk produced in the Republic of Ireland can use the NDC logo

dublinlady79

Hi Bactidiaryl,
Your correct I set this account up today, we had a long conversation last night and it was still in my head today. Ive never posted on boards before so im not sure how it works, I posted on the other thread because it was dairy farming related but realised it is a number of years old so I reposted on this because it is more active. I read threads very regulary but havnt figured out how to create a new one yet. How do you feel im having a pop at the dairy industry? I realy have no intention to offend but was just looking for some opinions from around the community.

kevthegaff

back on subject lads any word on august price, s levy. Oh ya two exchanges for buying quota next year coming up, ill apply for priority at 3c litre. hardly justify any higher than that

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

back on subject lads any word on august price, s levy. Oh ya two exchanges for buying quota next year coming up, ill apply for priority at 3c litre. hardly justify any higher than that

Arrabawn price set around 14 or 15,price will remain stable ,small chance of a rise but think we're now at peak of market and prices will remain at current levels till march April time next year when the inevitable will happen.kiwis are having a serious start to the year and the yanks will drive on due to low cereal prices,the combination of both will put serious pressure on world market price next year.the only thing that will change that is a drought or some big product scare ala botulism in New Zealand recently.
On super levy,unfortunately its now looking inevitable,ample grass,good ground conditions,cheaper concentrate and high milk price.lads need to have a serious look at things now and if going over in s big way,go once a day,cull emptys etc or drily off early.a lot of lads around here are full already,utter madness and poor planning,you know your quota so stick to it for next year and a half.arrabawn starting deductions from this month.even guys under 350k litres will get stung this year I'd say.
On quota exchange ,it going to be interesting especially for first exchange.i will bid for some on priority pool as I'm under 35 and I will also bid I. The exchange at a price ill keep to myself for now.price could be lower on first exchange as lads will be concentrating on clearing bills etc and then see what cash is available to bid on round 2.

delaval

I hear guys saying that they'll go over as price in excess of 40c. They reason that they need cash to make up for last year. Dangerous game as levy is due to be paid next year when price WILL be lower.

Processors deducting early are actually doing people a favour. Guys will try to pay out of cash flow next Spring and then find themselves hit with a lower price and a lack of working capital

Proceed with caution

kevthegaff

Totally agree with ye delaval, should be deducted as soon as over. April-May cash flows are normally tight and a huge fine would kill some lads.

loveta

When next year do you guys think it will start dropping back, or would any of ye have a settling figure in mind, not looking for ye to tell me the future, :-) but just wondering what the gut feeling is out there

delaval

loveta wrote: »

When next year do you guys think it will start dropping back, or would any of ye have a settling figure in mind, not looking for ye to tell me the future, :-) but just wondering what the gut feeling is out there

Our budgets for next year are done based on .35c. Higher solids and winter bonus will add to this. I could be way off that's my tuppence

loveta

delaval wrote: »

Our budgets for next year are done based on .35c. Higher solids and winter bonus will add to this. I could be way off that's my tuppence

that would be average, so i wonder will we be on a down ward spiral next back end:eek:

mahoney_j

loveta wrote: »

When next year do you guys think it will start dropping back, or would any of ye have a settling figure in mind, not looking for ye to tell me the future, :-) but just wondering what the gut feeling is out there

I reckon we will see price reductions happen around march April time,how low it will go is anyone's guess but I'd reckon it will hover around 30 cent,market peaks are getting higher,but the troughs are also getting higher.id be confident enough of lows being around 27 or 28 cent

loveta

Really ripping the p@ss here but if we are on a downward trend next back end where will we be in the start of the quota free era

mahoney_j

loveta wrote: »

Really ripping the p@ss here but if we are on a downward trend next back end where will we be in the start of the quota free era

Thats the million dollar question,Were dealing with full effect of world markets then.There will certainly be massive pressure on price in 2015 if all the new entrants come in and existing suppliers increase production.Then again if there is a big weather event or product issue who knows.There will be a settling in peroid in 2015/16 ,I fully expect milk price Range from 26 to the high 30s depending on supply demand

loveta

mahoney_j wrote: »

Thats the million dollar question,Were dealing with full effect of world markets then.There will certainly be massive pressure on price in 2015 if all the new entrants come in and existing suppliers increase production.Then again if there is a big weather event or product issue who knows.There will be a settling in peroid in 2015/16 ,I fully expect milk price Range from 26 to the high 30s depending on supply demand

Does ireland have any bearing on milk price with the amount we supply even if we went up say 30% sure its nothing, does it not all depend on what uncle sam does and to a lesser extent the kiwis

delaval

loveta wrote: »

Does ireland have any bearing on milk price with the amount we supply even if we went up say 30% sure its nothing, does it not all depend on what uncle sam does and to a lesser extent the kiwis

We have no bearing what ever.

We are on world markets for quiet a while now.

Others will dictate price we will have no bearing even if all farms were to convert.

Abolition of quotas will no doubt be blamed

arais

delaval wrote: »

I hear guys saying that they'll go over as price in excess of 40c. They reason that they need cash to make up for last year. Dangerous game as levy is due to be paid next year when price WILL be lower.

Processors deducting early are actually doing people a favour. Guys will try to pay out of cash flow next Spring and then find themselves hit with a lower price and a lack of working capital

Proceed with caution

a lot of suppliers forgetting thst they will be getting maybe 34/35 next FEb/Mar, not much profit - 28

jersey101

I thimk ill stick with the winter milk till 2020 to see how things pan out. I also based my future projections on a 35c/l like delaval

Bactidiaryl

dublinlady79 wrote: »

Hi Bactidiaryl,
Your correct I set this account up today, we had a long conversation last night and it was still in my head today. Ive never posted on boards before so im not sure how it works, I posted on the other thread because it was dairy farming related but realised it is a number of years old so I reposted on this because it is more active. I read threads very regulary but havnt figured out how to create a new one yet. How do you feel im having a pop at the dairy industry? I realy have no intention to offend but was just looking for some opinions from around the community.

Fair enough dublin lady. You do seem genuine. It's just that from time to time posters drop in to the farming forum trolling and stirring up trouble and I was maybe Been a tad over protective. I can see now you are not as such. Welcome to the farming forum and I do hope you find the answers you are looking for.

Timmaay

jersey101 wrote: »

I thimk ill stick with the winter milk till 2020 to see how things pan out. I also based my future projections on a 35c/l like delaval

What % winter are you? Only reason I'm sticking out winter for now is our CI and calving spread is too wide. When we are in the low cycle of the milk price, being in winter milk or not will have zero bearing in my view.

Farmer Pudsey

I think that a lot of you are overly pessimistic on milk price. Maize is starting to rise again as projected maize harvest is being reduced so we may not see the reduction in ration prices world wide that were projected. So next year may well be better than farmers expect.

However on one hand I will agree that we will have little impact on world wide prices it is the ability of processors to sell the extra volume that will dictate Irish prices. If product expands by 30% over 2 Years will these processors manage to handle and sell all this product at a decent price. As we know in beef there is a different between commodity price and product price. Look at Angus and Hereford scheme prices compared to commodity pricing at bottom of beef market. As we have seen from the Irish Beef market an excess of supply even during a world wide shortage allows predatory pricing by processor's and supermarkets.

bob charles

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I think that a lot of you are overly pessimistic on milk price. Maize is starting to rise again as projected maize harvest is being reduced so we may not see the reduction in ration prices world wide that were projected. So next year may well be better than farmers expect.

And I think allot are over optimistic on milk price @ 35c, early 30ish might be closer to reality, some mention dairy product scares like the recent one in NZ bring opportunity, big problem as it could also be threat with a dairy scare in Irish product.

Grain prices are going to be low in the important markets for the foreseeable future (2yr) and plenty of locking in going on at the moment so the big producers will just turn on the tap and produce huge volumes. Anyway sure what the F*** do I know about milking:)

red bull

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I think that a lot of you are overly pessimistic on milk price. Maize is starting to rise again as projected maize harvest is being reduced so we may not see the reduction in ration prices world wide that were projected. So next year may well be better than farmers expect.

However on one hand I will agree that we will have little impact on world wide prices it is the ability of processors to sell the extra volume that will dictate Irish prices. If product expands by 30% over 2 Years will these processors manage to handle and sell all this product at a decent price. As we know in beef there is a different between commodity price and product price. Look at Angus and Hereford scheme prices compared to commodity pricing at bottom of beef market. As we have seen from the Irish Beef market an excess of supply even during a world wide shortage allows predatory pricing by processor's and supermarkets.

Dairy produce is sold mainly through the IDB a co op, as opposed to the beef industry totaly private enterprise

kevthegaff

ya i sort of agree with bob i think its a little optimistic considering the average we've been getting the last 5 years. Personally id be pretty happy with a stable 28-30c a litre compared to a fluctuating price. But post quota i don't mind as supply restrictions shouldn't be as big factor for the expanding dairy farmer. Lot of guys though biting off more than they can chew with investments into dairy at the moment with small land blocks and huge capital, id be worried about these guys

mahoney_j

bob charles wrote: »

And I think allot are over optimistic on milk price @ 35c, early 30ish might be closer to reality, some mention dairy product scares like the recent one in NZ bring opportunity, big problem as it could also be threat with a dairy scare in Irish product.

Grain prices are going to be low in the important markets for the foreseeable future (2yr) and plenty of locking in going on at the moment so the big producers will just turn on the tap and produce huge volumes. Anyway sure what the F*** do I know about milking:)

Good post bob,

jersey101

Timmaay wrote: »

What % winter are you? Only reason I'm sticking out winter for now is our CI and calving spread is too wide. When we are in the low cycle of the milk price, being in winter milk or not will have zero bearing in my view.

70/30 split here. CI is 474 going to tackle that from now on and not carry over cows from winter to spring.

whelan1

jersey101 wrote: »

70/30 split here. CI is 474 going to tackle that from now on and not carry over cows from winter to spring.

474:eek::eek:mine is 405 and thought that was bad