Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

dinnyirwin

The Spider wrote: »

As has been said 93k is in the top 14% for the country, what is it in Dublin?

Maybe its just me, but I would consider that average to below average for a working couple.

Zamboni

dinnyirwin wrote: »

Maybe its just me, but I would consider that average to below average for a working couple.

Good thing this "statistics" thing isn't based on yours or spiders subjective view of what is an average wage.
I've ran payrolls for multiple medium/large size companies in the past and most people earn nothing like those figures. Averages are completely skewed by top management.

spockety

dinnyirwin wrote: »

Maybe its just me, but I would consider that average to below average for a working couple.

It's definitely not average.

People need to stop assuming things based on their own socio economic circle!

Couples who earn 40k between them would probably also say most people they know are similar. Funny that....

handlemaster

jay0109 wrote: »

Is Clonsilla now deemed to be a 'desirable' area! I missed that memo:P

Good location. Quiet. Shopping centre close by. Regular trains through too connolly with dart connection. Buses at your door step etc

The Spider

spockety wrote: »

It's definitely not average.

People need to stop assuming things based on their own socio economic circle!

Couples who earn 40k between them would probably also say most people they know are similar. Funny that....

What is the average wage for a professional or highly skilled worker in Dublin?
And only Dublin as that seems to be where we're talking about.

Semi skilled or non skilled workers won't be buying in SCD for a start, maybe Clonsilla, Blanch,Lucan

ArnieSilvia

The Spider wrote: »

What is the average wage for a professional or highly skilled worker in Dublin?
And only Dublin as that seems to be where we're talking about.

Semi skilled or non skilled workers won't be buying in SCD for a start, maybe Clonsilla, Blanch,Lucan

I reckon that non skilled workers would be looking at social housing.

Semi skilled (I reckon 45k NET combined home pay) at best could afford places like Ballyfermot or Clondalkin. Not nice parts of these mind. I viewed a house in Ballyfermot for 138k at the time. House alright but I felt intimidated by hords of teenagers in their hoodies in tracksuits with agressive breeds of dogs. It was halloween and they were burning pile of old furniture, pallets and whatever else near the house. I felt relieved after getting out of the estate.

Semi decent houses in Lucan are about 200-240k advertised but bids keep coming in and agreed price can reach more. Saw few apartments here for 145k but these were snapped quickly and I think that sale agreed prices were much higher. Many pointed out that you'd find mostly tradesmen traditionally buying in/around Lucan and professionals in likes of Adamstown. I consider them skilled and you need a combined salary about 55k NET to get a 200k 25y mortgage. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

Hard to buy decent property these days and most frustrating are moments when you're outbid and you know it's out of your price range (mortgage). Or when you ring asking about the house advertised day ago and it's already gone

I was reading this thread with interest but it only convinced me that repo's will be snapped by few in the circle and not released to average man. I also realised it won't change anything because BTL's will be kept renting out. And as Dublin seems to attract people from Mayo, Cork etc to work here they will keep renting even more as they bring their families in.

It's a pity we couldn't get a mortgage a year ago. We bought a house (moving in soon) and very happy with it still. We'll be paying same as rent we're paying now but the house we bought is just incomparably better. I reckon we'd have to pay 50% more in rent to get same standard.

I kept saying that I won't buy a house as it's too much risk (due to scumbags moving in nearby, vandalism etc) but seems like renting is even more risky these days as the rent can go up very high very quickly. Mortgages don't seem to be so volatile. So having a family decision had to be made.

handlemaster

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

I reckon that non skilled workers would be looking at social housing.

Semi skilled (I reckon 45k NET combined home pay) at best could afford places like Ballyfermot or Clondalkin. Not nice parts of these mind. I viewed a house in Ballyfermot for 138k at the time. House alright but I felt intimidated by hordsœ of teenagers in their hoodies in tracksuits with agressive breeds of dogs. It was halloween and they were burning pile of old furniture, pallets and whatever else near the house. I felt relieved after getting out of the estate.

Semi decent houses in Lucan are about 200-240k advertised but bids keep coming in and agreed price can reach more. Saw few apartments here for 145k but these were snapped quickly and I think that sale agreed prices were much higher. Many pointed out that you'd find mostly tradesmen traditionally buying in/around Lucan and professionals in likes of Adamstown. I consider them skilled and you need a combined salary about 55k NET to get a 200k 25y mortgage. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

Hard to buy decent property these days and most frustrating are moments when you're outbid and you know it's out of your price range (mortgage). Or when you ring asking about the house advertised day ago and it's already gone

I was reading this thread with interest but it only convinced me that repo's will be snapped by few in the circle and not released to average man. I also realised it won't change anything because BTL's will be kept renting out. And as Dublin seems to attract people from Mayo, Cork etc to work here they will keep renting even more as they bring their families in.

It's a pity we couldn't get a mortgage a year ago. We bought a house (moving in soon) and very happy with it still. We'll be paying same as rent we're paying now but the house we bought is just incomparably better. I reckon we'd have to pay 50% more in rent to get same standard.

I kept saying that I won't buy a house as it's too much risk (due to scumbags moving in nearby, vandalism etc) but seems like renting is even more risky these days as the rent can go up very high very quickly. Mortgages don't seem to be so volatile. So having a family decision had to be made.

Had you looked in Dublin 15 ? There werelots of houses in the 125-160k mark up until last year. Best of luck in your new place.

ArnieSilvia

Well, it was hard to find a place to fill all our criteria to some degree of compromise. We looked everywhere only to buy on adjacent street. It was a last house for sale of the current lot that was snapped up in 2 weeks. This was a shocker as last lot took a year to sell.

I had a specific requirement that kids have to be able to walk to primary and secondary school. Also no anti-social behaviour of any kind. We both work within walking distance from our new home and know area well as we've been here for last 2.5 years. No walls between places, good design of estate as whole were also important. Demographically mostly professionals.

For me a deal breaker was also an underground secure car park, underground storage space, large attic, A3 BER rating, well proportioned and well sized rooms and no wasted space. I might be different but I preferred to have communal space for residents than my own large garden/driveway. There's little garden for ourselves (space for coffee table really) and rest is a landscaped space shared with everybody living there.

Maybe it's cultural background but I like to have sense of community and have opportunity to know and chat with my neighbours.

The fact it was a showhouse was a bonus, we'll bring suitcases in, and that's it.

Piriz

The Spider wrote: »

There is one factor though irregardless of 93'000 being in the top 14% of the country where is it in relation to salaries in SCD no the rest of Dublin.

I suppose what I'm asking is what is the average salary in the areas discussed all the way through the thread, that'll give you an idea as to what kind of salary you need to buy in the desirable areas.

If the average salary is 160 and you earn 100 then you'll never have a chance in SCD plain and simple!

can you please stop steering this discussion to who can afford property in SCD..

handlemaster

Piriz wrote: »

can you please stop steering this discussion to who can afford property in SCD..

Couldn't agree more what's up with SCD coming into every other post!

Woodville56

handlemaster wrote: »

Couldn't agree more what's up with SCD coming into every other post!

Given the divergence in house price trends between Dublin and the rest of the country , is there a case for having separate threads for discussion on this topic , one for the Dublin property scene and another for the rest - rural / urban Ireland ? Just a suggestion !

The Spider

Piriz wrote: »

can you please stop steering this discussion to who can afford property in SCD..

Absolutely, no problem, but the thing is every time I point out somewhere else, it's either no response or people call it a knackerzone, so like I say all for it but people need define acceptable areas outside it.

In fact can we just say SCD is not up for discussion within this, but the caveat to that is that other areas have to be named.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Absolutely, no problem, but the thing is every time I point out somewhere else, it's either no response or people call it a knackerzone, so like I say all for it but people need define acceptable areas outside it.

In fact can we just say SCD is not up for discussion within this, but the caveat to that is that other areas have to be named.

Jesus Christ, I myself listed a range of areas northside based where people desire to live. I did not list the southside as i do not know that area very well(bar inner city). I notice no-one else has listed a number of areas either.

When one talks of Dublin house prices, just beware there are different markets in each suburb. SCD does not equal to what's happening in the rest of the suburbs.

desertcircus

dinnyirwin wrote: »

Maybe its just me, but I would consider that average to below average for a working couple.

It's probably not just you, as plenty of people think in those terms, but that's most likely inside the top 20% of households in Dublin. There's a frightening disconnection between perceptions and reality in a lot of discussion about economics and taxation in Ireland; over half the households in Ireland take home less than fifty thousand a year. People earning in the nineties are among the wealthiest 20%, and while that sum can easily feel like it's not enough and that taxation is too high, it doesn't change the fact that if you're at that level, you're earning something in the region of twice the median income. Of course someone earning double the media household income is going to be taxed heavily, but for some reason there's a strong tendency in Ireland to simply assume that we're being overtaxed.

The_Conductor

desertcircus wrote: »

It's probably not just you, as plenty of people think in those terms, but that's most likely inside the top 20% of households in Dublin. There's a frightening disconnection between perceptions and reality in a lot of discussion about economics and taxation in Ireland; over half the households in Ireland take home less than fifty thousand a year. People earning in the nineties are among the wealthiest 20%, and while that sum can easily feel like it's not enough and that taxation is too high, it doesn't change the fact that if you're at that level, you're earning something in the region of twice the median income. Of course someone earning double the media household income is going to be taxed heavily, but for some reason there's a strong tendency in Ireland to simply assume that we're being overtaxed.

There are glaring inequities though- if a dual income household have to pay for childcare for 2-3 children, just to ensure the safety of their jobs- its paid for from after-tax income- while if they stayed at home, got to spend time with their children, had an income of 40k instead of 90k, they would have a far higher standard of living- than they would on their 90k income.

In many rural areas- it has reverted to one income households- however there is no cognisance of the benefit this infers particularly in the area of child care.

Until the likes of creche fees/childcare expenses, becomes tax deductable and available at reasonable cost- holding up a hypothetical gross salary of 90-100k and saying 'hey, you're in the top 14% of income earners' is patently bull****.

Looking at single people, and their earnings, and comparing the levels in different locations- might be fair and meaningful- however once other factors, such as children enter the equation- unless there is a financial cost/benefit associated with working or not working, applied to the equation- all you're doing is pissing people off, with comments about their wonderful salaries.

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are glaring inequities though- if a dual income household have to pay for childcare for 2-3 children, just to ensure the safety of their jobs- its paid for from after-tax income- while if they stayed at home, got to spend time with their children, had an income of 40k instead of 90k, they would have a far higher standard of living- than they would on their 90k income.

In many rural areas- it has reverted to one income households- however there is no cognisance of the benefit this infers particularly in the area of child care.

Until the likes of creche fees/childcare expenses, becomes tax deductable and available at reasonable cost- holding up a hypothetical gross salary of 90-100k and saying 'hey, you're in the top 14% of income earners' is patently bull****.

Looking at single people, and their earnings, and comparing the levels in different locations- might be fair and meaningful- however once other factors, such as children enter the equation- unless there is a financial cost/benefit associated with working or not working, applied to the equation- all you're doing is pissing people off, with comments about their wonderful salaries.

All this comes back to the price of property
Higher taxes to pay for the banks, accommodation for those on reasonable wages who are priced out of a rigged market, bailouts for everyone,

Creches have to pay accommodation costs many locked into upward only rent reviews. They have to pay staff a salary that covers extortionate rents, high transport costs

Posters have claimed that they need double their 93k salary to have a decent standard of living. Would not work because if everyone on 93k suddenly had their wages doubled, they would pay more than double for there existing home and probably buy a couple of BTL's at another extortionate price. We cannot move forward without learning from mistakes of the past.

For those who claim Social welfare would be better? Do your present job for Social Welfare rate + €50 for 18 months and see how you manage. Thats what those on SW are been asked to do

Been there (without the €50) no fun. Others with me also did it with 25 mile commutes each way for the chance of securing a temporary position with starting salary just shy of 22k

Ray Palmer

desertcircus wrote: »

People earning in the nineties are among the wealthiest 20%, and while that sum can easily feel like it's not enough and that taxation is too high, it doesn't change the fact that if you're at that level, you're earning something in the region of twice the median income.

Earning twice the median income doesn't mean you get it. There seems to be perception problem where people seem to miss that. It is very easy to earn that money and have less disposable income than others earning less and working less.
If the salary is in the top 20% should you be living the top 20% lifestyle? It is debatable but there should be a benefit from success or what is the point. There aren't many people getting money for doing nothing.

Taxation is a disincentive for me to do certain things. I am not going to start a business where 52% of the profit is taken away. I could stop work and do it full time but that is less revenue too.

gaius c

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are glaring inequities though- if a dual income household have to pay for childcare for 2-3 children, just to ensure the safety of their jobs- its paid for from after-tax income- while if they stayed at home, got to spend time with their children, had an income of 40k instead of 90k, they would have a far higher standard of living- than they would on their 90k income.

In many rural areas- it has reverted to one income households- however there is no cognisance of the benefit this infers particularly in the area of child care.

Until the likes of creche fees/childcare expenses, becomes tax deductable and available at reasonable cost- holding up a hypothetical gross salary of 90-100k and saying 'hey, you're in the top 14% of income earners' is patently bull****.

Looking at single people, and their earnings, and comparing the levels in different locations- might be fair and meaningful- however once other factors, such as children enter the equation- unless there is a financial cost/benefit associated with working or not working, applied to the equation- all you're doing is pissing people off, with comments about their wonderful salaries.

Tempting as that might sound, it'll only push up prices in the sector as they treat it as a government subsidy.

How do they do childcare in other countries? Why don't we copy a system that already works rather than coming up with a uniquely Irish system that panders to a slew of vested interests?

cookie1977

gaius c wrote: »

Tempting as that might sound, it'll only push up prices in the sector as they treat it as a government subsidy.

How do they do childcare in other countries? Why don't we copy a system that already works rather than coming up with a uniquely Irish system that panders to a slew of vested interests?

I really think a tax rebate would work as you'd have to pay up front for the cost of the creche and then claim the rebate at the end of the tax year. You still have to come up with all the money first so creche's would be unlikely to try to gauge people as their (the parents) monthly income would be hit immediately and they wouldn't recoup costs until the end of the year.

Childcare in many Scandinavian countries is heavily subsidized. As their core taxes are higher they benefit from this but again we dont have a fair distribution nor use of collected taxes in this country. All taxes go into a central pot no matter where they are collected from when they really shouldn't be in my belief.

In Ireland I think there's a discrepancy between what parents pay for childcare and what employees of creche's get. Somewhere the money is disappearing. Maybe through tax, maybe through insurance or maybe through profit but with out a proper analysis childcare costs wont come down.

Cuddlesworth

cookie1977 wrote: »

Somewhere the money is disappearing.

Rent, then insurance. Our high property values effect everything, not just house prices.

marathonic

gaius c wrote: »

How do they do childcare in other countries? Why don't we copy a system that already works rather than coming up with a uniquely Irish system that panders to a slew of vested interests?

The UK do childcare vouchers - which you pay for out of pre-tax income and give to the registered childcare provider for their services.

Ray Palmer

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Rent, then insurance. Our high property values effect everything, not just house prices.

The child to minder ratio is also low here, minimum wage pushes up other wages, employer responsibilities. Lots of factors in play beyond property prices.

We also have a major difference in society. The Scandinavians have a word they use a lot which basically means good enough but not perfect. So don't go mental when things don't go right or minor problems come up. Here people flip out and sue. Our insurance is massively expensive as a result even compared to the US we sue and pay out more

cookie1977

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Rent, then insurance. Our high property values effect everything, not just house prices.

It's not solely that. London rents are very high yet their childcare costs are lower.

jay0109

marathonic wrote: »

The UK do childcare vouchers - which you pay for out of pre-tax income and give to the registered childcare provider for their services.

Will never happen in Ireland as that's too focused at those that work. The 'hands out' brigade, backed up by the squealing do-gooder charities and lobby groups would be looking for it to be focused on the unemployed...and I think you can guess which side Joan Bruton would take

MouseTail

jay0109 wrote: »

Will never happen in Ireland as that's too focused at those that work. The 'hands out' brigade, backed up by the squealing do-gooder charities and lobby groups would be looking for it to be focused on the unemployed...and I think you can guess which side Joan Bruton would take

No, the main reason it has not happened here is two fold. The traditional stay at home parent lobby is incredibly strong and powerful, they will resist any move to make childcare tax deductable. Also, most of our childcare, over 70% takes place in an unregistered environment (informal Childminders). Tackling that is an enormous task.

El_Dangeroso

Anyone watching primetime?

Usual suspects, a guy from new beginnings and David Hall trotting out the sob stories.

The_Conductor

MouseTail wrote: »

No, the main reason it has not happened here is two fold. The traditional stay at home parent lobby is incredibly strong and powerful, they will resist any move to make childcare tax deductable. Also, most of our childcare, over 70% takes place in an unregistered environment (informal Childminders). Tackling that is an enormous task.

I think its more the case that it would put a value on the home childcare- and it suits too many people to not enumerate it. We are rapidly reaching the situation where its simply not possible financially, for those in work, to have children. The way all our resources are focused on the unemployed- is all well and good- but its at a very high cost to those in work- whose dependency ratio is going up and up all the time. Its not politically correct to admit that we know of people who have made lifestyle choices to stay at home and have children- instead of entering the market place (esp. when there are so many people who are unable to find work)- but the simple fact of the matter is- this is a significant cadre of people. Working people pay to allow non-working people stay at home and have children........

Anyhow- we have veered so far off topic- I'm calling time on this particular debate, we're going to focus back on the core again- which is- the potential for falls in house prices, due to repossessed properties hitting the market (and no- its not a meandering debate about South Co. Dublin either- time is also called on that).

The_Conductor

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Anyone watching primetime?

Usual suspects, a guy from new beginnings and David Hall trotting out the sob stories.

You have to accept- the way Ireland works- is whoever shouts loudest, or has the highest impact sob story- gets their pet cause seen to. Simple as.

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote: »

You have to accept- the way Ireland works- is whoever shouts loudest, or has the highest impact sob story- gets their pet cause seen to. Simple as.

Why not put out children with special needs, people wating on trollies in hospitals to counteract there sob stories. Funding has to be diverted from somewhere.

Villa05

Oh wait, cant make money out of them so they have no voice

Acceptable??