Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

moxin

techdiver wrote: »

Ok, take bad areas about and see how many decent properties you are left with. Most of those properties you list there are are in Finglas or worse, with an odd good area. We lived near Finglas before and ventured up to the village on occasion and it's not somewhere I'd want to pay that money for. Added to that the complete lack of decent public transport available around there and repeated anti-social behaviour we experienced on buses, doesn't add up to the money for those properties either.
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Finglas ain't that bad Honestly like every area with a bad reputation there are good parts and bad parts of Finglas, its the bad parts that make the news. To be blunt, you will not find high income earners living in Finglas, they mainly live in nearby Glasnevin\Castleknock.

Rather than focussing on certain areas as the main point, I think the main point should be that a household income of 93k should not mean the only option is to live in a high crime area. If so, the prices are still too high all over. Seriously out of whack.

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

Finglas ain't that bad

Rather than focussing on certain areas as the main point, I think the main point should be that a household income of 93k should not mean the only option is to live in a high crime area. If so, the prices are still too high all over. Seriously out of whack.

Again, if people are buying them, and and can afford them, then they're not, the only thing that'll bring down prices in those desirable areas is a massive increase in supply, but there's nowhere to increase the supply, there's no more available land.

You can buy a house in a non high crime area easily enough in the likes of Bray!

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=737070

Now that's a nice house for 340'000, seriously Bray isn't exactly far it's even on the dart.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Again, if people are buying them, and and can afford them, then they're not, the only thing that'll bring down prices in those desirable areas is a massive increase in supply, but there's nowhere to increase the supply, there's no more available land.

You can buy a house in a non high crime area easily enough in the likes of Bray!

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=737070

Now that's a nice house for 340'000, seriously Bray isn't exactly far it's even on the dart.

You know the answer which hasn't been meaningfully acted on yet , its in the title of this thread. Repossess and you will see lots more stock come online in all areas.

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

You know the answer which hasn't been meaningfully acted on yet , its in the title of this thread. Repossess and you will see lots more stock come online in all areas.

Good god, how many times, there won't be massive repossessions, there just won't the government would be out on it's ear at the next general election.

Hoping for repossessions as a way to hugely increase supply in desirable areas sounds like a fantasy to be honest, yeah you may have repos but they'll be in Leitrim.

People wanting to buy have a couple of decisions to make because if hoping for repos is the best you can do, you're bunched.

Options listed below

1. Get the money together and buy a house in desirable area.

2. Increase income to allow you to buy a house in a desirable area.

3. Pick a different substitute area within Dublin.

4. Pick a different substitute area outside Dublin.

5. Wait and see if a crash happens again, bearing in mind the last one took 15 years, and if takes that long again, prices may fall back to where they are today, if prices keep increasing.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Good god, how many times, there won't be massive repossessions, there just won't the government would be out on it's ear at the next general election.

Hoping for repossessions as a way to hugely increase supply in desirable areas sounds like a fantasy to be honest, yeah you may have repos but they'll be in Leitrim.

People wanting to buy have a couple of decisions to make because if hoping for repos is the best you can do, you're bunched.

Options listed below

1. Get the money together and buy a house in desirable area.

2. Increase income to allow you to buy a house in a desirable area.

3. Pick a different substitute area within Dublin.

4. Pick a different substitute area outside Dublin.

5. Wait and see if a crash happens again, bearing in mind the last one took 15 years, and if takes that long again, prices may fall back to where they are today, if prices keep increasing.

I never said anything about hoping. I stated the reason why there is a constrained supply in all areas, its down to the lack of repossessions. Around 140,000 mortgage accounts had arrears of some sort, some of them are in Dublin, we don't know how many yet as the banks will not release the info.

You cannot deny that the lack of repo's is not the reason why supply is very low and keep a straight face at the same time.

kennyb3

spockety wrote: »

€93K per year would put that household firmly in the top 10% of household earners.

I think that if the market wasn't rigged, a couple earning €93K would easily be able to buy a house in a decent area. The ones you posted, ex council houses in Finglas etc., on €93K per year? Gimme a break!

Until the rigging is taken out of the market, you cannot blame people on decent earnings for being angry about the state of it.

The Nevin Economic Research Institute puts them around the 15% to 18%. (http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/). that's Jan 2013 - I'd imagine it's closer to 20% today.

The last Revenue income distribution appears to be from 2011 - 3 year out of date at this stage.

Also let's remember these are national averages - Dublin by itself would likely be higher.

We earn similar and where able to buy a nice house sub €300k for less than 25% of our disposable income. We could have went to €400k if we wanted spending more of our savings and going up to 30% of disposable income (not a crazy figure).

Simply taking account of salary is a bit too simple. Depends on the size of the deposit, whether you've kids, guaranteed increments and a guaranteed pension etc etc etc.

Anyway simplicity point out of the way I think the recent bounce in the market is unsustainable and I hope it slows down before popping. Supply is clearly an issue with properties in dublin on daft.ie having gone from 5,000 in May 2012 to about 2,700 today.

No building, no repo's, lack of trading down, people living longer, continued family formations all combining to cause the problem.

D3PO

spockety wrote: »

€93K per year would put that household firmly in the top 10% of household earners.

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I wouldnt have thought so. Myself and my wife would have a household income in excess of 110k a year and off hand with work collegues, friends and family I could easily think of another 50 or so couples with 6 figure household incomes.

100k combined in Dublin isnt unusual especially with the high concentration of high end IT jobs in the capitol.

cookie1977

D3PO wrote: »

I wouldnt have thought so. Myself and my wife would have a household income in excess of 110k a year and off hand with work collegues, friends and family I could easily think of another 50 or so couples with 6 figure household incomes.

100k combined in Dublin isnt unusual especially with the high concentration of high end IT jobs in the capitol.

I would agree. I seriously doubt that these earnings would put that household firmly in the top 10% of household earners.

The_Conductor

D3PO wrote: »

I wouldnt have thought so. Myself and my wife would have a household income in excess of 110k a year and off hand with work collegues, friends and family I could easily think of another 50 or so couples with 6 figure household incomes.

100k combined in Dublin isnt unusual especially with the high concentration of high end IT jobs in the capitol.

I'd have to echo this too.
Even on a gross salary of 100k+ if you have a mortgage to pay, alongside creche fees- you'd probably be better off on social welfare.

Having a headline joint salary of 100k- if you have a mortgage and a young family- is certainly not a sign of wealth by any means.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd have to echo this too.
Even on a gross salary of 100k+ if you have a mortgage to pay, alongside creche fees- you'd probably be better off on social welfare.

Having a headline joint salary of 100k- if you have a mortgage and a young family- is certainly not a sign of wealth by any means.

If I'm part of the top 10% and this country is in any way relying on me to help with restarting the domestic economy you could be waiting a while!

El_Dangeroso

100k gross puts a household in the top 14% according to latest figures:

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/

I know nothing of the Dublin market, in fact you couldn't pay me to live there, I'm a small city person through and through. But is SCD really all composed of foxrock-style wealthy areas? Are there not relatively normal but obviously above average areas, or is it the exclusive domain of the A class?

moxin

Thanks for that El Dangeroso as I was going to ask for a source to facts as I was sceptical

So 70% of households earn less than €70k, 80% of households earn less than €80k and 14% of households have a gross income above €100,000 per annum.

Even if the % is higher in Dublin, it will not result in a majority at all there. At least we know its a small minority of households that earn above €100k unlike some here like to state.

cookie1977

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

100k gross puts a household in the top 14% according to latest figures:

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/

I know nothing of the Dublin market, in fact you couldn't pay me to live there, I'm a small city person through and through. But is SCD really all composed of foxrock-style wealthy areas? Are there not relatively normal but obviously above average areas, or is it the exclusive domain of the A class?

That's surprising but as I said I dont feel it at all. No of course SCD is not all foxrock style places. I live in D6W and there's loads of different property types around here.

who_ru

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd have to echo this too.
Even on a gross salary of 100k+ if you have a mortgage to pay, alongside creche fees- you'd probably be better off on social welfare.

Having a headline joint salary of 100k- if you have a mortgage and a young family- is certainly not a sign of wealth by any means.

correct, tax is simply too high, the marginal rate is 52% - you hit the top rate of income tax at far too low an income now. a married couple or civil partners standard rate cut off point is 41,800 euro, 41% on everything else. if both are working the max income at standard rate is 65k, the rest at 41%, add on USC, health levies, and then the marginal rate of 52% is arrived at.

factor in the outrageous cost of childcare, health care, transport costs etc then a joint income of 200,000 would be more likely required to have a decent standard of living in this country.

moxin

D3PO wrote: »

I wouldnt have thought so. Myself and my wife would have a household income in excess of 110k a year and off hand with work collegues, friends and family I could easily think of another 50 or so couples with 6 figure household incomes.

100k combined in Dublin isnt unusual especially with the high concentration of high end IT jobs in the capitol.

The IT sector in Dublin comprises of alot of foreign transient workers. Even though some are on high wages for the household income stats, their intent here is not to stay permanently so most of them can be ruled out of the housebuying demographic.

Glenbhoy

who_ru wrote: »

correct, tax is simply too high, the marginal rate is 52% - you hit the top rate of income tax at far too low an income now. a married couple or civil partners standard rate cut off point is 41,800 euro, 41% on everything else. if both are working the max income at standard rate is 65k, the rest at 41%, add on USC, health levies, and then the marginal rate of 52% is arrived at.

factor in the outrageous cost of childcare, health care, transport costs etc then a joint income of 200,000 would be more likely required to have a decent standard of living in this country.

Taxes may be higher now than they were during the Tigger, but we're trying to pay off the mistakes of that era. Also keep in mind that one of the main reasons taxes are so high is because wages are so comparatively high (both private and public).

The Spider

There is one factor though irregardless of 93'000 being in the top 14% of the country where is it in relation to salaries in SCD no the rest of Dublin.

I suppose what I'm asking is what is the average salary in the areas discussed all the way through the thread, that'll give you an idea as to what kind of salary you need to buy in the desirable areas.

If the average salary is 160 and you earn 100 then you'll never have a chance in SCD plain and simple!

Bob24

who_ru wrote: »

correct, tax is simply too high, the marginal rate is 52% - you hit the top rate of income tax at far too low an income now. a married couple or civil partners standard rate cut off point is 41,800 euro, 41% on everything else. if both are working the max income at standard rate is 65k, the rest at 41%, add on USC, health levies, and then the marginal rate of 52% is arrived at.

factor in the outrageous cost of childcare, health care, transport costs etc then a joint income of 200,000 would be more likely required to have a decent standard of living in this country.

Income tax and PRSI are indeed too high for the public services we are getting in return ... But someone has to finance the low corporate tax and bank bail outs. I don't think it is going down anytime soon ...

Glenbhoy

The Spider wrote: »

If the average salary is 160 and you earn 100 then you'll never have a chance in SCD plain and simple!

Phew, thankfully no such place exists (well, granted there may be an estate or two or road two in D4, but the vast majority of places in SCD or otherwise are well short of that).

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

There is one factor though irregardless of 93'000 being in the top 14% of the country where is it in relation to salaries in SCD no the rest of Dublin.

I suppose what I'm asking is what is the average salary in the areas discussed all the way through the thread, that'll give you an idea as to what kind of salary you need to buy in the desirable areas.

If the average salary is 160 and you earn 100 then you'll never have a chance in SCD plain and simple!

I don't know what type of point you're trying to prove. There are plenty of desirable areas outside SCD which do not have high earners.

Rich areas like Foxrock\Killiney have rich earners, that's blooming obvious since day 1 when they were established.

Outside the rich areas of your worshipped SCD where the average worker was able to afford property before 2001 is now only mostly affordable by the wealthy due to the rigging of the market. It ain't justified.

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

I don't know what type of point you're trying to prove. There are plenty of desirable areas outside SCD which do not have high earners.

Rich areas like Foxrock\Killiney have rich earners, that's blooming obvious since day 1 when they were established.

Outside the rich areas of your worshipped SCD where the average worker was able to afford property before 2001 is now only mostly affordable by the wealthy due to the rigging of the market. It ain't justified.

Hang on I'm using SCD because every time I point to another area, like Blanchardstown or elsewhere I'm shouted down, name the desirable areas go ahead and then we'll see what's affordable there.

There is no vast conspiracy the Market isn't rigged, the prices more than halved, people saw it as value and started buying again.

And for the record SCD is far from beloved to me, I'm not from Dublin, I live outside and commute, but I can look at it objectively and completely understand why people want to live there, like I say not for me, but then again either is Crumlin, Ballymun, Blanch or Lucan, Clontarf though that is an area I'd live in, if I had to live in Dublin.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Hang on I'm using SCD because every time I point to another area, like Blanchardstown or elsewhere I'm shouted down, name the desirable areas go ahead and then we'll see what's affordable there.

There is no vast conspiracy the Market isn't rigged, the prices more than halved, people saw it as value and started buying again.

And for the record SCD is far from beloved to me, I'm not from Dublin, I live outside and commute, but I can look at it objectively and completely understand why people want to live there, like I say not for me, but then again either is Crumlin, Ballymun, Blanch or Lucan, Clontarf though that is an area I'd live in, if I had to live in Dublin.

I told you before where the "desirable" areas are either in a debate on this thread or another I think which had Dublin in its title!

Saying "prices more than halved" is misleading, we had one of the worlds biggest property bubbles!! Prices shot up the most so fell alot!

About naming areas from West to East. Lucan, Palmerstown, Chapelizod, Blanch South(really Clonsilla), Glasnevin\Finglas East, Santry, Beaumont down to the coast at Clontarf\Baldoyle\Raheny. All desirable on the northside without the huge wealth of Foxrock.

spockety

Wealthy people in knowing loads of other wealthy people in their social and professional circle shocker! ;-)

Households pulling in 93k per year should not be told it's fine to end up living in the dodgier ends of places like finglas. End of story.

Yes it may be happening, and yes everyone may have to suck it up, but that doesn't mean it can't be called out for the absurdity that it is.

We remain in a distorted market, regardless of the factors that drive it.

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

I told you before where the "desirable" areas are either in a debate on this thread or another I think which had Dublin in its title!

Saying "prices more than halved" is misleading, we had one of the worlds biggest property bubbles!! Prices shot up the most so fell alot!

About naming areas from West to East. Lucan, Palmerstown, Chapelizod, Blanch South(really Clonsilla), Glasnevin\Finglas East, Santry, Beaumont down to the coast at Clontarf\Baldoyle\Raheny. All desirable on the northside without the huge wealth of Foxrock.

Thanks that's exactly what I wanted, so I've done a search in the above areas on daft.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ct1&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=3645&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=187&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=200&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=204&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=233&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=260&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=271&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=275&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=290&s%5Baddress%5D=&s%5Btxt%5D=&s%5Bmnb%5D=3&s%5Bmxb%5D=&s%5Bmnbt%5D=&s%5Bmxbt%5D=&s%5Bmnp%5D=&s%5Bmxp%5D=275000&s%5Bpt_id%5D=1&s%5Bhouse_type%5D=&s%5Bsqmn%5D=&s%5Bsqmx%5D=&s%5Bmna%5D=&s%5Bmxa%5D=&s%5Bnpt_id%5D=&s%5Bdays_old%5D=&s%5Bnew%5D=&s%5Bagreed%5D=&more=&tab=&search=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=sale&s%5Btransport%5D=&s%5Badvanced%5D=&s%5Bprice_per_room%5D=

I searched for 3 bed houses with a maximum price of 275'000 I got 70 back, with a fair amount coming in under 200 so that's 70 houses for sale in desirable areas in the capital at sub 275, easily affordable on a household income of 93000, so what's the problem, seems to me that there is property available.

I even left Blanchardstown and Clontarf out of the search.

jay0109

Is Clonsilla now deemed to be a 'desirable' area! I missed that memo:P

moxin

It was established that 93k is in the very top % of household incomes. If 14% earn over 100k, perhaps a generous 20% earn over 93k in Dublin?

Thing is at this income, the amount of houses available to them to purchase is way proportionately higher than those who do not earn near 93k. Out of sync are the words, that leaves the rest of the populace at a serious disadvantage.

moxin

jay0109 wrote: »

Is Clonsilla now deemed to be a 'desirable' area! I missed that memo:P

It ain't that bad What we're doing is listing areas that are not for the rich but attractive to the average worker and also attractive from a safety point of view.(skanger free in other words :P)

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

It was established that 93k is in the very top % of household incomes. If 14% earn over 100k, perhaps a generous 20% earn over 93k in Dublin?

Thing is at this income, the amount of houses available to them to purchase is way proportionately higher than those who do not earn near 93k. Out of sync are the words, that leaves the rest of the populace at a serious disadvantage.

As has been said 93k is in the top 14% for the country, what is it in Dublin?

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

As has been said 93k is in the top 14% for the country, what is it in Dublin?

I dunno, don't think there are stats for it. We'd have to guess, it will be higher by a notch alright

gaius c

Foreclosure stuffing folks. It's happening in the US as well.