The Golf Tips Thread

blindside88

The Chocolate Thunder wrote: »

Anyone looking at the without McIlroy market today? I like the look of Scott as an outside chance to finish behind Rory @ 12s myself.

I've done fowler in the betting w/o market. 11/4 isn't bad coming to the last day

bobwilliams

The Chocolate Thunder wrote: »

Anyone looking at the without McIlroy market today? I like the look of Scott as an outside chance to finish behind Rory @ 12s myself.

with the conditions I like Dustin @9/2

Nuri Sahin

Taken Sergio myself @ 7/2.

HankSchrader

HankSchrader wrote: »

Looking into previous course form for this and also other courses from designer Harry Colt. Read on another golf blog that those who did well at Royal Birkdale tend to fair well here too. The Open was held in Birkdale in 2008 and 1998. 2006 held the Open at current course. Two names that kept popping up in top 5/10 - Jim Furyk and Ernie Els. A similar designed course is Hamilton Golf and Country Club where the Canadian Open is held. Jim Furyk won here in 2006. With a T12 US Open and T14 Masters and previous course form under his belt I'm more than happy to take him @ 60/1 with pp. Also a small bit on Els @ 80/1.

Enjoy the golf

Great final round by Furyk. Happy with that research

Deco99

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Mcilroy was a poor each way bet , maybe the market thinks he either wins or comes nowhere , where as Stenson Rose and Scott where better each way bets , the market thinks even if they don't win they will be close . I'm not really concerned with McIroy been left out , all my bets carry huge value , I took more on Players I was allowed more on or players that offered more Value , Stenson Rose and Scott where all amazing bets with 7 places.

My bets are very strong now , about 40% chance I have the winner , I should make about 2-3k from my bets

About even? Not sure what odds you had on furyk.

qwabercd

Deco99 wrote: »

About even? Not sure what odds you had on furyk.

If he got Furyk at 50/1 he finished about €500 down by my rough calculations. Odd that the first time he posts he finishes down, but he had a ROI of greater than 30% in the previous 8 majors. 7 places definitely offers value, but not near as much as he incorrectly calculated.

Garcia's each way meant I finished about even. Pity Karlsonn couldn't hang on to an each way place.

stuba

What would you get on Fowler betting w/o Rory, if he was 11/4. Is it just dead heat rules and half the odds?

bobwilliams

stuba wrote: »

What would you get on Fowler betting w/o Rory, if he was 11/4. Is it just dead heat rules and half the odds?

half ur stake,full odds,same difference in this case

mailburner

took 40s on fowler for the pga a few hours ago with betfred
still 35s in a place

value if nothing else
ive never backed him before

bobwilliams

bobwilliams wrote: »

already posted Furyk @66/1 added him again @60/1
Also couldn't resisit 5/1 on Tiger to miss the cut in my local bookies,11/4 in powers,don't really think he'll miss it but 5/1 was too tempting.

nice profit after a great finish by Furyk,and Tiger only made the cut by one,love collecting on a Monday,stick the laser card away for a week anyway.

abarkie

clickerquicklic wrote: »

500ew Scott 16/1
250ew Stenson 16/1
100 ew matsuyma 55/1
200 ew leftie 25/1
100 ew kuchar 40
100 ew day 40
100 ew fowler 40
100 ew speith 45
150 ew Garcia 26

There my main bets if they could all just finish top 7 be nice 😜

I take it this has generated a profit?

Fowler, Garcia & Scott placed I think

What was the return?

Dolph Starbeam

YayaBanana wrote: »

Really dislike people coming on saying they bet big, nobody cares, some reasoning behind who you have picked would be a lot more helpful.

Only 4 players for me, going on Sunday so it would be nice to have someone in contention.

Illonen @ 80/1. In good form an won he won the British Am here in 2000.

Also backed Garcia and Lowry e/w and McIlroy win only.

Best of luck everyone.

Nice bit of profit, would have been nicer had Lowry held on for a place. Garcia is going to win a major soon, I know he has been promising to win one for a long, long time but his game is unreal, amazing ball striker.

SnowDrifts

YayaBanana wrote: »

Nice bit of profit, would have been nicer had Lowry held on for a place. Garcia is going to win a major soon, I know he has been promising to win one for a long, long time but his game is unreal, amazing ball striker.

Also was on Lowry (140/1) so was gutted to see him slip down.

100% agree regarding Garcia - his head just seems to be in a good place right now. I checked earlier today for his odds for the PGA next month - 33/1 but have since gone down to 28/1.

the groutch

McIlroy 5/6 to win SPOTY, seems like a nice Xmas savings plan.

clickerquicklic

Dustin Johnson let me down for a place with a poor finish on final 2 holes would have been 30% return had he placed. Ended up with a 308 loss from 6k invested even without backing the winner such amazing value in 7 places hope this shows it, I had 2500 expected value but lost 300 it happens. Long term it's value

Agree with Garcia playing amazing stuff , fowler also so consistent one to back for the majors in future in hindsight I'm surprised Fowler was 45/1 or so given his record is good at links golf and proven major contender

SnowDrifts

Ballsy bets clickerquicklic - fair play to you. Very nearly and should have put you well in profit. I'm sure you were cursing Dustin they way he finished.

Deco99

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Dustin Johnson let me down for a place with a poor finish on final 2 holes would have been 30% return had he placed. Ended up with a 308 loss from 6k invested even without backing the winner such amazing value in 7 places hope this shows it, I had 2500 expected value but lost 300 it happens. Long term it's value

Agree with Garcia playing amazing stuff , fowler also so consistent one to back for the majors in future in hindsight I'm surprised Fowler was 45/1 or so given his record is good at links golf and proven major contender

I apologise for being a stickler but you're doing something different to most guys so if I can learn a different view I will. You keep going on about amazing value I get it 7 places versus normal five but if you take the view that normal five is terrible then 7 is average. So value is jargon in my opinion. Whats the math? How many did you set out to back? Are you calculating returns when staking or is it ill have one of them two of them...

clickerquicklic

Deco99 wrote: »

I apologise for being a stickler but you're doing something different to most guys so if I can learn a different view I will. You keep going on about amazing value I get it 7 places versus normal five but if you take the view that normal five is terrible then 7 is average. So value is jargon in my opinion. Whats the math? How many did you set out to back? Are you calculating returns when staking or is it ill have one of them two of them...

I'm bad at explaining problem is stuff takes so long to explain , most people just assume it's bad value 5 places because there are 156 players although realistically there is not that many with a chance and most players are large odds .
I make 2 books , a win market and a place market , i compare the odds of players to place on Betfair which is a 500% place book and I take the par value matches and then build my own book with as many par value matches on place I can , then I leave it and whoever I have taken so be it. So my place book should be 700% ( you can view place books percentages at Betfair go to any place race or market and you will see %) 200% 2 places 300% 3 places etc etc , so I only need to stake 5 times instead of 7 to cover the book I am therefore getting an upshot of 40% I allow for small percentage loss in getting par value on the win side to say my margin is about 35% , there is no guessing here it's maths and building win and place books

Just to add if people are interested in weather it is value or not id recommend building your own books start with simple markets 3 horses work out the percentage over round the implied probability or each horse winning and stuff like that honesty the stuff you learn doing simple things is amazing .

Degag

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Dustin Johnson let me down for a place with a poor finish on final 2 holes would have been 30% return had he placed. Ended up with a 308 loss from 6k invested even without backing the winner such amazing value in 7 places hope this shows it, I had 2500 expected value but lost 300 it happens. Long term it's value

Agree with Garcia playing amazing stuff , fowler also so consistent one to back for the majors in future in hindsight I'm surprised Fowler was 45/1 or so given his record is good at links golf and proven major contender

So what went wrong? I thought you won in the last 8 majors in a row and pretty much guaranteed a 2k to 3k profit??

clickerquicklic

Eureka thought of another way to explain it , you say 5 places is poor value so 7 is average . Ok on Betfair if you back every player to place backing enough to win same you will make no money at all and lose nothing because market is 500% and payout is 500% doesn't matter about dead heats you'll get paid out twice if you have 2 players tied at half stake so all be equal you make nothing and lose nothing

So let's say you are getting the same ew odds as the place market at Betfair but 2 extra places , if you can back every player and make your own book witht same odds payout will be 700% when it should be 500

Deco99

Degag wrote: »

So what went wrong? I thought you won in the last 8 majors in a row and pretty much guaranteed a 2k to 3k profit??

Dustin Johnson. Thats what went wrong. He delights on dropping shots on sunday evenings

clickerquicklic

Degag wrote: »

So what went wrong? I thought you won in the last 8 majors in a row and pretty much guaranteed a 2k to 3k profit??

I can only generate value of 2-3k what happens after that is down to chance , I should make about 2-3k on a 6k investment with 30-40% return but I could lose all 6k or win 12k , with betting you can't gaurantee winning but you can produce a positive expected value which over time should see you move closer to your expected profit , variance can be cruel though so especially in tiny samples sizes

Nothing went wrong at all good bets lose all the time

abarkie

the groutch wrote: »

McIlroy 5/6 to win SPOTY, seems like a nice Xmas savings plan.

Probably get shot down here, but he reminds of Andy Murray.

I bit monotone and seemingly lacking in personality

From a betting perspective, due to England's World Cup performance, it is unlikely to be a footballer

Murray has failed at Wimbledon

Froome has failed at the Tour De France

Cannot think of a stand out player this year in the Premiership

The rugby don't seem to have a stand out candidate

The cricketers haven't performed well, so not many candidates left.

As for major sporting events left, there is the Ryder Cup, so if he plays well there, then it will be a gimme.

Lewis Hamilton if he won the F1 title

Johnny Wilkinson, sympathy vote due to retirement

Can't think of anyone else, so you may be right.

skippymac6

abarkie wrote: »

Probably get shot down here, but he reminds of Andy Murray.

I bit monotone and seemingly lacking in personality

From a betting perspective, due to England's World Cup performance, it is unlikely to be a footballer

Murray has failed at Wimbledon

Froome has failed at the Tour De France

Cannot think of a stand out player this year in the Premiership

The rugby don't seem to have a stand out candidate

The cricketers haven't performed well, so not many candidates left.

As for major sporting events left, there is the Ryder Cup, so if he plays well there, then it will be a gimme.

Lewis Hamilton if he won the F1 title

Johnny Wilkinson, sympathy vote due to retirement

Can't think of anyone else, so you may be right.

Yep I certainly agre here. Unless Hamilton wins the F1 title you're safe.

Only thing is will the British public vote for a lad who's declared for Ireland in the Olympics ;)

Collie D

skippymac6 wrote: »

Yep I certainly agre here. Unless Hamilton wins the F1 title you're safe.

Only thing is will the British public vote for a lad who's declared for Ireland in the Olympics ;)

Maybe not but I am sure the Northern Ireland vote will be sizable.

Personally I think 33/1 on Mo Farah is massive. Commonwealth games next month. Likable character too. Going for 5k and 10k double that he completed in London Olympics. Tough feat to achieve but he has done it before. Winning gold at one would make it a possibility. Double would make him a very short favourite. No odds available for either event so can't compare value. Top price with Coral paying two places for bit of insurance

Mezcita

Collie D wrote: »

Maybe not but I am sure the Northern Ireland vote will be sizable.

Personally I think 33/1 on Mo Farah is massive. Commonwealth games next month. Likable character too. Going for 5k and 10k double that he completed in London Olympics. Tough feat to achieve but he has done it before. Winning gold at one would make it a possibility. Double would make him a very short favourite. No odds available for either event so can't compare value. Top price with Coral paying two places for bit of insurance

Interesting. He only got 8% of the vote in the year he did the Olympic double though.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/sports-personality-of-the-year/9759069/Sports-Personality-2012-one-sour-note-only-8-per-cent-voted-for-Mo-Farah.html

bobwilliams

just had a look at paddypower, 3 joint 12/1 favs this week in Canada,am I the only one that thinks that's a joke. Don't think i'll even have a bet.

qwabercd

bobwilliams wrote: »

just had a look at paddypower, 3 joint 12/1 favs this week in Canada,am I the only one that thinks that's a joke. Don't think i'll even have a bet.

Pretty crap field and prices alright, I don't even fancy many of the outsiders. Gonna give Choi and Wagner a small each way bet each. Vegas, Bae and Chappell the other 3 I considered.

Small flutter on Kieffer in the Russian Open.

Interesting to see what price Jimenez will be for the Senior Open.

tomaussie

I am very tempted to back Luke Donald at 25/1 this week in Canada but he just doesn't win as many as he should. I can't see him out of the top 5 though so maybe I'll change my mind and accept that 25/1.

Other than Donald I think Jerry Kelly at 66/1 and Carl Pettersson also at 66/1 represent good value.

I also think Jimenez is handicap material for the Seniors Open. Don't care what price he is but I'll be trying to get a price on him winning by 5 shots or more.

Joe Doe

tomaussie wrote: »

maybe I'll change my mind and accept that 25/1.

Few offering x28 (decimal system), very little going hot nor cold across the board.





Think Nixon was trending earlier for the Russian Open...