By-Election Confirmed for March 27th

ArmaniJeanss

darkhorse wrote: »

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Its the norm to have the by-elections quite quick, I don't think the sympathy thing was an issue (i.e., if the candidate wasn't his daughter I don't think they'd have waited any longer).

Pearse Doherty wins court case seeking by-election · TheJournal.ie




Yeah, right.

Its like you just leapt on my first sentence to put up a smart reply, without bothering to read on where I referred to the last government as being an exception to this.

Sierra Oscar

Tally completed:

Complete tally from #mhe13 - FG 38.4%, FF 33.4%, SF 12.9%, DDI 6.5%, LP 3.9%

Labours votes now being counted.

Skid X

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Byrne will need 2:1 of transfers going his way, I cant see him closing the gap. The gap needed to be narrower on the first preferences in my view. What is interesting though is that FG didnt get the votes they were expecting in the north of the constituency. They were expecting to be on around d 42% after they were taken into account.

I suspect a lot of the SF/DDI/Lab/Other votes won't transfer to either FF or FG, meaning McEntee will hang on. Won't be too much in it at the end.

Sierra Oscar

Skid X wrote: »

I suspect a lot of the SF/DDI/Lab/Other votes won't transfer to either FF or FG, meaning McEntee will hang on. Won't be too much in it at the end.

2 out of 3 SF transfers are going to FF, but I would imagine a large amount of votes just wont transfer at all.

KERSPLAT!

Princess Petulia Pissy Pants wrote: »

Do you think enough people feel the same Hijpo? Do you think he'll be elected?

Hijpo wrote: »

I believe so princess,

Its not exactly close, is it?

Larbre34

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Tally completed:



Labours votes now being counted.

So, very roughly speaking, McEntee ought to get around 9800 first prefs, will need 2,200-2,500 transfers to get over the line....

With Labour shot, FG arent transfer friendly to any of the others, this could get very interesting! Byrne will have perhaps 8,200 No.1s - not an impossible task for him.........

mike65

Daughter wins tragic dads seat, democracy!

Skid X

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

2 out of 3 SF transfers are going to FF, but I would imagine a large amount of votes just wont transfer at all.

Exactly. There just aren't enough 'FF friendly' votes out there among the other candidates to make up the 5% difference.

antoobrien

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Also, why do you think FG held this by-election a few weeks after the death of Shane McEntee?

Because there Pearse Doherty took the last government to court over an undue delay in setting a by-election date.

When McEntee won his seat originally, it was due to John Bruton resigning his seat. The by-election was 16 weeks later. This by election is 14 weeks, so it's not unusually early.

Hijpo

Princess Petulia Pissy Pants wrote: »

Its not exactly close, is it?

That was in response to people feelings

touts

Big lessons from this by-election:

1. Labour are going the way of the PDs and Greens.
2. When you take away the sympathy factor Fine Gael will lose a serious number of seats in the next election but probably not as bad as Fianna Fail last time.
3. At a time of anger 60%+ of the population couldn't bring themselves to vote for anyone. That means there is still a big opening for a new party led by someone high profile who knows how to promote themselves.
4. A tenner on a Fine Gael Fianna Fail coalition after the next election might be a reasonable bet.

antoobrien

touts wrote: »

3. At a time of huge anger and discontent 60%+ of the population couldn't bring themselves to vote for anyone on the ballot paper.

Given the weather in Meath that's a bit harsh. A bit more like: this isn't going to change anything so I'm not risking my life over it.

KERSPLAT!

antoobrien wrote: »

Given the weather in Meath that's a bit harsh. A bit more like: this isn't going to change anything so I'm not risking my life over it.

Jaysus thats a tad overdramatic

antoobrien

Princess Petulia Pissy Pants wrote: »

Jaysus thats a tad overdramatic

Not really, direct quote from a work colleague.

Skid X

antoobrien wrote: »

Not really, direct quote from a work colleague.

... who was being overdramatic. I can understand people not going out to vote in that weather, but it was hardly Life threatening.

antoobrien

Skid X wrote: »

... who was being overdramatic. I can understand people not going out to vote in that weather, but it was hardly Life threatening.

She does have a rear wheel drive, not the most stable contraption on slick roads.

raymon

I just saw a funny one on Fiach Kelly's blog in Irish Independent...... 4 FF TDs have shown up for the Thomas Byrne election party.

Can someone tell them that FF were defeated.

Larbre34

antoobrien wrote: »

She does have a rear wheel drive, not the most stable contraption on slick roads.

She. Ah right.

Chips Lovell

So 90 per cent of this thread was spent talking about a guy who got 6 per cent of the vote.

DJCR

Well not a huge surprise from the tallys. McEnteee would have expected that result. Labour have totally insulated FG from a drop in support (-2.4% isn't exactly a catastrophe).

Fianna Fáil can only be happy, as an FF member who canvassed in Meath East and Dublin West this result is no surprise to me. We thought we were in with a shout and naturally with it looking like McEntee winning the seat there will be slight disappointment. However an increase to over 30% from the last election tells its own story and FF cannot be disappointed with that (Be it pro FF or anti government the votes ended up with Byrne).

Sinn Fein would be disappointed I imagine. They would have definately expected an increase of more than 4%. A rethink on the party leadership may be on the cards and I'm not talking about Ducky. It would seem the Mary Lou posters didn't get the desired effect. We will here spin of double figures but in reality they will be disappointed.

Labour HQ must be imploding this morning. If Gilmore lasts another week it will be unbelievable.

Others increased by 1%, which is prob within the margin of error of this poll showing the DDI has not really got off the ground yet.

Very rough Results compared to last time:-

FG 40.87% to 38.43% (-2.44%)
Lab 21.04% to 3.9% (-17.14%)
FF 19.61% to 33.41% (+13.8%)
SF 8.88% to 12.9% (+4.02%)
Others 9.61% to 11.36% (+1.75)

Also interesting info in first preferences from the two by-elections (again rough as we don't actually have a first count yet).

FF 15972 (27%)
FG 14722 (24%)
Others 13654 (23%)
Labour 9624 (16%)
SF 6353 (11%)

I stress the figures above are just for fun. Naturally changing circumstances would have affected Dub West election but I personally find it nice to wind ye all up with a result that sees FF on top

Sully

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Why do you think FG wanted to hold the election a mere few weeks after the death of McEntee? If you had studied the 2009 South Dublin by-election you would know that it was held over a year after the death of Seamus. In that period of time any sympathy vote just evaporates - to the extent that some people were asking who Seamus was a year on. Also, when you run a celebrity candidate it can tend to trump any other candidate.

Arah, your a bit of a sore looser.

I notice as of late that a lot of Fianna Fail supporters seem to think their party is whiter than white. Appalled at government policy, the cut backs and the tough budgets but they seem to be forgetting it was their party that yet again put Ireland in this shocking situation and agreed to a bailout with some tough terms that would end of screwing the Irish people regardless of who was in power. Making Thomas Byrne out to be some sort of saint who had nothing to do with the previous government, ensuring the video of himself and Bertie was quickly removed. Forgetting the heart warming speech Byrne gave in relation to Bertie on the day of his "retirement".

And then we have this nonsense suggesting that Fine Gael rushed the election to suit themselves. Are you forgetting that Fianna Fail refused to hold a by-election because they knew their grasp on power was drifting rapidly away from them and they would be hammered in any election. It took members of the opposition - both Sinn Fein and Fine Gael - to force the Fianna Fail government to do anything. Fine Gael made a commitment that they wouldn't delay by-elections in future, The Dublin West by-election was also held in quick fashion, noting that Fine Gael didn't do well in that election but Labour did.

Larbre34

Dear Pat Rabbitte

You feel that in this instance Labour has been "singled out to bear the responsibility for the fact that so many people are hurting in the economy".

That would certainly be true in part. However of more pertinence would be the fact that your party in general, and Public Expenditure Minister in particular has utterly and irrevocably betrayed your core constituency, the public servant.

In Feb 2011 your party got 431,000 first preferences nationally. Consider you just alienated forever 300,000 idealogical voters, and probably their families, and it will explain proportionately why you just got 3.8% in Meath East.

Enjoy your retirement

LB

Sierra Oscar

Sully wrote: »

Arah, your a bit of a sore looser.

Meh not really, our result in the election shows once and for all that there is a real FF recovery underway. This result will be good to steady the nerves heading into the local elections campaign, which is what is needed considering we are just over a year out now. Naturally it would have been absolutely fantastic if we won the seat, but all the same I will happily take a 21% increase in our first preference vote any day. Eitherway the number of representatives in our parliamentary party remains the same. If that figure held up on election day we would return a TD to every constituency, with multiple seats in certain areas. Considering the government is in for a very rocky ride ahead, especially now that Labour have imploded, then the future is bright for the opposition.

DJCR

Sully wrote: »

Arah, your a bit of a sore looser.

I notice as of late that a lot of Fianna Fail supporters seem to think their party is whiter than white. Appalled at government policy, the cut backs and the tough budgets but they seem to be forgetting it was their party that yet again put Ireland in this shocking situation and agreed to a bailout with some tough terms

I would disagree. I would say there are a lot of Fianna Fáil supporters out there giving an actual alternative. Not only spured on by the increased power the individual member has been granted under the new rules and procedures but by the state of the other parties in this country, a faltering government and the joke that is the split personality Sinn Fein.

Long story short, no one knows better than Fianna Fáil members where we went wrong in the last government. It's no secret where we went wrong both internally and externally. Thing is you can do two things:- Stay down (easy thing to do) or you can get up and do what just under 400,000 people wanted us to do. Get out there and give this country something it hasn't had for the last 15 years..... A credible opposition.

Essentially, we know we went wrong, the electorate know we went wrong, people like yourselves have told all of us enough times. But people want a way out of this mess, one that was exacerbated by some of the decisions made by FF but to say it was completely caused by FF is incorrect.

We will continue to provide a decent opposition. When we agree with a move we'll vote with it, when we don't we'll propose an alternative. Like we have been doing.

Sully

My thoughts on this election anyway..

Yes, this government stepped into a very tough economic situation they were tasked with sorting out. Yes, they made some very harsh choices that feel like a punch to the stomach of many people. Yes, they didn't hit the top as much as they hit the middle and lower incomes. But this is a party that remains more or less the most popular party in the state, despite peoples anger with their performance (me included). There is no disputing that and this is the second by-election a government party has won since their time in office. I assume the people feel that the choices left to them would be much worse and that they are better sticking with Fine Gael and, god help us, Fianna Fail. Seeing as both have a strong reputation for running the country - one into the ground and the other pulling us out of it.

The people had plenty of time to think about who to vote for. They didn't have to vote for the government, but they did and its only a slight drop on their General Election result. Why? Well that's to be decided, and I doubt any research will be done. But the reception in Meath East was mixed - a lot of people remembered McEntee from working alongside her father (god rest his soul) and a lot of people knew the name and remembered her father as a hard worker and a well respected representative in the area. I don't think sympathy played much part, I think they just voted for a name they could trust and knew seeing as they also gave a huge vote to the Fianna Fail candidate who was well known and was in government before. The rest just picked up the remaining chunk of the vote. Helen didn't poll as strong in her own area as would be expected and did well in strong Fianna Fail ground. So that says something else about why people voted they way they did.

In regards to the low turnout - we have a history of not great turnouts whether it be referendums or elections, which is why I think a DDI approach would be a fiasco. It doesn't matter which party or candidates are running, and Meath East is no exception. Yes the weather may have discouraged people from voting but again considering the numbers of those who voted the way they did, there is nothing to suggest those who didn't vote would have skewed the results significantly either first preferences or transfers. Stopping polling at 9pm shouldn't have stopped huge numbers from voting either - it started at 8am and finished at 9pm. Most workplaces close at 5pm or 6pm. I can't see that being a factor as to why thousands didn't bother to vote. Canvassers were in Meath East around those times canvassing, right up until 9pm in cases, and the area was far from empty.

And finally, this is a huge blow to Sinn Fein. With all their anti-austerity "policies" and ranting, their "we will refund the property tax" auction style politics - people still didn't care much and gave the two austerity parties the majority of the vote. The party that screwed the country picked up 34%+ and the party that is implementing tough policies that everyone apparently hates picked up 38%+. The candidate picked up the scraps and probably a chunk of the Labour and protest voters. Even Mary Lou felt Labour supporters didn't show up, so if they did, that could well topple the Sinn Fein chances for attempting to gain a little more ground if Labour downfall stops and supporters go out and vote. To come third ahead of Fianna Fail is enough of a blow but to think that their not getting the anti-austerity support they think they would get is even more of a blow. DDI sneaking up right behind them yet their "party" isn't even known - their first election and they have done much better!

Congrats to Helen anyway. We need more young fresh and energetic blood and now we have increased the female representation. The last young TD we elected is doing a fantastic job - Fine Gael Wicklow TD Simon Harris. I have no doubt she will represent her constituency well, like her Dad did before her, and continue his hard work representing the constituency.

DJCR

https://excel.office.live.com/x/ExcelView.aspx?FBsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdownload%2Ffile_preview.php%3Fid%3D518103101564933%26time%3D1364483973%26metadata&access_token=1148336184%3AAVKpHKShXoF4rnFNwVAMSWhb_s8hlao-E8h3KJjY846r1A&title=Meath+East+by-election+2013+%28final+tally%29+-+TheJournal.ie.xlsx

BenMicheal

If anyone is interested I'm reporting on the Bye Election and a feed of it can be found here - http://wp.me/p2Pwla-Q - It might provide (hopefully) a few points that can be debated upon here.

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Meh not really, our result in the election shows once and for all that there is a real FF recovery underway. .

I noticed a trend in the talk of Fianna Failers . They talk about FF and the recovery of the party. In the same fashion as a football team that has been relegated.

Normal people tend to talk about the recovery of our economy , or our standard of living or our reputation.

I find this chilling . I'm glad Thomas Byrne lost.

jank

Exactly what alternatives will FF offer?

KERSPLAT!

jank wrote: »

Exactly what alternatives will FF offer?

What alternatives will any of them offer?!