Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

maquiladora

No mention of 90-110 km/h gusts on the 18:25 update from Met Eireann, so perhaps a downgrade from them.

It will be a windy day everywhere, but the strongest winds will be along the west coast in the afternoon were they may reach gale force for a time, together with some severe gusts.

maquiladora

gbee wrote: »

Storm force what? I've heard the same, so I know.

Forecast for coasts from Roches Point to Slyne Head to Malin Head
Wind: South to southwest force 4 to 6, increasing force 6 or 7 overnight. Further increasing gale force 8 or strong gale force 9 tomorrow forenoon, possibly touching storm force 10 north of Valentia in the afternoon.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/sea-area.asp

gbee

maquiladora

It was a test, I know you now.

Yes, touching storm force 10. unless one is at seas.

gbee

maquiladora wrote: »

No mention of 90-110 km/h

Storm force ten is not too far off. If one were to be pedantic, 87~102kph is ST10

maquiladora

gbee wrote: »

Storm force ten is not too far off. If one were to be pedantic, 87~102kph is ST10

The sea area forecast mentions storm force, but that's out at sea. The earlier national forecast mentioned 90-110 km/h gusts (not sustained) for coasts. They dropped that from the latest national forecast though.

Nothing that the west coast isn't well used to seeing anyway.

Deep Easterly

While this may well be a bust, I don't see any harm in highlighting the potential for severe winds along the west coast tomorrow. Though nowhere near as potent, the set up itself does not look dissimilar the short lived, squall type storm that wiped out entire families along the Mayo coast back in Oct 1927. If our discussing the various possibilities sows the seeds of caution in the minds of those people who work at sea who might be reading this thread then not a bad thing IMO.

Here is how the latest EMHI is looking for tomorrow. Very slightly further north than earlier runs but still worth keeping a beady eye on for the time being.

Birdnuts

snaps wrote: »

to me looking at latest GFS charts wednesday and thursday look quite windy and stormy for the west/north west?

To my eyes both the 12Z GFS and ECM have significantly upgraded the potential of Thurday's wind event!!:eek:

maquiladora

Birdnuts wrote: »

To my eyes both the 12Z GFS and ECM have significantly upgraded the potential of Thurday's wind event!!:eek:

It's confusing with different 'events' on different days, but yeah on the GFS anyway Thursday does look more severe. The red area is 100-110 km/h gusts, and thats over a fairly big chuck, extending inland and not just on coasts.



Very fluid situation over the next few days though, so that could very easily turn out to be a lot less strong.

Iancar29

Birdnuts wrote: »

To my eyes both the 12Z GFS and ECM have significantly upgraded the potential of Thurday's wind event!!:eek:

Not a huge upgrade but one none the less...

ninebeanrows

For what its worth the 18z run of the WRF model shows storm force 10 winds for a time along some western coasts early tomorrow afternoon.

Galway Bay looks particularly hard hit in this run with Severe Gale 9 and Storm 10 winds.

The model even depeicts inland gale force 8 winds tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.

Let's keep our guard up.

kwik

NobodyImportant wrote: »

I'm getting the same popup login box too.

I keep getting that on mobile. Anybody know what it is?????

eastmayo

kwik wrote: »

I keep getting that on mobile. Anybody know what it is?????

I keep getting that as well on mobile

Lucreto

kwik wrote: »

I keep getting that on mobile. Anybody know what it is?????

I think it is the images Bsal is posting. You need to login to to see them. We get this pop up every page he posts image in.

I get the broken image picture with his posts.

snaps

eastmayo wrote: »

I keep getting that as well on mobile

me too, just on my mobile.

vickers209

A username and password are being requested by http://www.pilotbrief.net. The site says: "Pilotbrief International"

Are yous getting a login saying above too??

Deank

vickers209 wrote: »

Are yous getting a login saying above too??

Yup, I'm getting the same on mobile .

maquiladora

vickers209 wrote: »

Are yous getting a login saying above too??

It's from the .gif images Bsal is posting.

Tactical

Weathercheck wrote: »

Let's keep our guard up.

Runs to make sure batteries for GoPro are fully charged and memory card is empty

cotton

vickers209 wrote: »

Are yous getting a login saying above too??

Getting this on laptop this evening & earlier today in work too.

Bsal

Sorry guys, didn't know that was happening.

Bsal

Afternoon is looking strong in the west.



Nice jet too at FL300, up to 160kts

Deep Easterly

Interesting little feature being forecast by DCU chart for early Wednseday morning for SE/E coast.



It is interesting how the models have been showing these small but potent mesoscale systems over the last 3 or 4 days. Whether or not they will verify is another question but interesting nontheless.

ninebeanrows

posted this in wrong thread

Here is the concerning WRF model for tomorrow afternoon.

ninebeanrows

Bsal wrote: »

Afternoon is looking strong in the west.



Nice jet too at FL300, up to 160kts

Hadn't realised the jet was that intense. WOW.

That balloon launched in Valentia tomorrow will end up in Norway!

Oscar Bravo

A 2311 update from Met Eireann....Tuesday-It will be a wet start to the day in parts of the north and east as the rain starts to clear away. It will become drier and clearer in parts of the midlands and the east during the late morning and early afternoon. However heavy squally showers will develop in the west during the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday will be a very windy day with fresh to strong and gusty southwest winds which will touch gale force for a time along the west coast during the afternoon. Highest temperatures of 10 to 13 degrees.

Su Campu

...."gale force for a time".....

Downgrade if I ever saw one! :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

Just to get us in the mood for tomorra (even if it does not verify) :cool:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nk_TiqyXUss


For anyone keeping an eye on the satellite images, this is the area to watch with signs of circulation already developing as trough encounters some drier mid-level air.

Oscar Bravo

Lets see what Met Eireann have to say now ,on the radio,on RTE Radio 1....its the land and Sea Area Forecast.

M.T. Cranium

If anyone's looking in this early (or late) the first models reporting (GFS, GME) have upgraded and there does appear to be just enough of a time window for this short wave to intensify as suggested by the bursts of convection over west Munster in the past hour (10 mm rain 02-03h at Sherkin Island for instance). Expecting a general upgrade with the later guidance and so would say watch out west coast, incoming about noon to 3 p.m., into west Ulster a bit later than that. A more extensive report on model guidance later.

snaps

Very heavy rain here in mayo. Can hear it on roof. The ground is saturated here, we will have serious flooding if this onslaught of rain keeps up.