Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

M.T. Cranium

Update on previous model roundup, GEM now at 60h and UKMO generally agree with GME, I would say, in developing at least equal strength winds to the incoming event, and peak winds on Tuesday evening towards midnight, Not sure how many versions of Hirlam can be accessed, the one that I use is also similar to the above. So far, model consensus is probably in the range of near to equal wind event, somewhat colder, squally front embedded rather than the long-duration warm frontal rainfall we are seeing with the current system.

However, "king Euro" has yet to speak and after Sandy, I regard the rest of the ensemble as a way to pass the time until he doeth.

leahyl

It's extremely wet in Cork city at the moment (been raining heavily since about 1.30) and starting to get rather gusty now also....

Oscar Bravo

A Gust of 44 Knots at Sherkin Islands. 997hpa at Belmullet and Mace Head.

Oscar Bravo

A Gust of 44 Knots at Sherkin Islands. 997hpa at Belmullet and Mace Head.

cyclops999

Very heavy rain in the Athlone area

Su Campu

Max TAF winds for next 24 hours

DUBLIN 28 gust 44
SHANNON 29 gust 40
CORK 32 gust 48
KNOCK 22 gust 34
BELFAST ALDERGROVE 23 gust 35


Other airports, valid to midnight

CASEMENT 23 gust 35
DONEGAL 26 gust 40
SLIGO 28 gust 40
GALWAY 27 gust 40
KERRY 30 gust 44
WATERFORD 32 gust 50

CB19Kevo

Extreme gusts in S. Kerry,
Has been raining heavy since 11am.

Deep Easterly

Regarding Tuesday''s set up, the Estonian HIRLAM has a squall type feature running up the west coast by Tuesday late afternoon but check out that tiny mesoscale feature it develops just west of the Scottish Islands by 18z (map grainy due to zoom in)



GFS seems to be backing always from intensity but will be interesting to see how the ECM 12z looks in a while.

M.T. Cranium

ECM has downgraded for now, however with so much model confusion evident, would suggest that 00z run might restore the system. For now, we can say that there is no overwhelming evidence for strong winds on Tuesday evening or overnight into Wednesday morning. Today's system somewhat slower on ECM which is perhaps why the Tuesday system is downgraded, not enough room for development in the wake of slowly filling low north of Scotland. Situation looks volatile to me and there's a lot of potential energy to work with mid-week to Friday. Something could explode out of this mess sooner or later. Needs a better "kicker" than we see on upper air panels of models. Would compare to the usual Barcelona buildup, you never know when they will stop passing it around and Messi or Iniesta will get open.

Sierra Oscar

Pretty stormy here in Tipperary at the moment, it has been raining all day too - lots of localised flooding on the roads.

ninebeanrows

Buoy off south coast reporting sustained Severe Gale force 9 windsn @ 1900hrs

41kt gust 46kt

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

Buoy off south coast reporting sustained Severe Gale force 9 windsn @ 1900hrs

41kt gust 46kt

That's the Kinsale Energy platform, which has its anemometer at 110 m above the surface, hence the high readings.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Regarding Tuesday''s set up, the Estonian HIRLAM has a squall type feature running up the west coast by Tuesday late afternoon but check out that tiny mesoscale feature it develops just west of the Scottish Islands by 18z (map grainy due to zoom in)



GFS seems to be backing always from intensity but will be interesting to see how the ECM 12z looks in a while.

The NAE has a similar feature moving northwards through the country during Tuesday, with a very tight gradient on its eastern side. It would bring strong winds to Leinster and Ulster.

pad199207

Recent Gust of 53 KMH here

mickger844posts

Max gust 58km/h here with regular gusts above 50km/h, Rain 10.6mm

cotton

Drove from Newbridge to Greystones an hour ago. Driving rain the whole way but wind only picked up as we got to Wicklow. Up on Windgates hill & it's beginning to sound a bit rough now.

fr wishy washy

Extremely windy here in West Wicklow

nerrad1983

Very windy at the minute here in Newtown Mt Kdy Co Wicklow

Really picked up in the last few minutes

dclanber

Very windy here in kildare and has been for the last hour. Rain has eased off.

pad199207

Winds really howling here now, Power Lines are whistling

martyfurey

the wind is howling here in meath at the minute. Im in the sitting room and the chimney is whistling away. and the rain is tipping down.

Su Campu

There's an amazing difference in windspeeds between Dublin Airport and Casement, only 11 miles apart, at 2100.

DUBLIN 16013KT
CASEMENT 18031G47KT

Probably some Fohn effect.

Rougies

Su Campu wrote: »

There's an amazing difference in windspeeds between Dublin Airport and Casement, only 11 miles apart, at 2100.

DUBLIN 16013KT
CASEMENT 18031G47KT

Probably some Fohn effect.

Very windy here for the past hour with very strong gusts. Bins and garden furniture getting thrown around. Closer to Casement than Dublin Airport here in D.16.

John.Icy

Family reporting snow in Athy??? And have seen several reports on facebook for other area around Kildare too..

Hardly any snow associated with this is there?

ninebeanrows

Not too bad here just one or two loud gusts but picking up.

Just thinking that i haven't heard a proper gust of wind around here for quite a while.

ninebeanrows

John.Icy wrote: »

Family reporting snow in Athy??? And have seen several reports on facebook for other area around Kildare too..

Hardly any snow associated with this is there?

Not a chance no, i did see an error on the Met Reports at 8pm showing 'Sleet' at some station so perhaps this is what they jumped on.

ninebeanrows

For the short term forecast for Tuesday/ Wednesday.

It appears we have a small system that develops rapidly to our southwest and then gets dragged back in to the centre of the circulation. This could potentially bring some severe winds for a time to the west and northwest late Tuesday.

However there is also a small disturbance to its southeast that could be quite troublesome for a wider area for Wednesday.

However it appears to be quite a mesoscale system and looks a forecasters nightmare.

admiralofthefleet

wind is getting progressively stronger here in arklow and its lashing down too

Su Campu

Casement's 2100 synop reported a max sustained wind this evening of 18 m/s (35 kt), which had reduced slightly to 31 kt by observation time. This is indicative of some Foehn processes at play as Dublin Airport and Dun Laoghaire are much less; Dun Laoghaire with a max of 25 kt and Dublin less than 20 kt.

CASEMENT 2100
03967 41470 81816 10092 20071 39890 40002 57059 76062 8362/ 333 83718 88556 91218 90710 91124=

Su Campu

Casement 38G52kt at 2200, Dublin 19 kt