Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

ninebeanrows

Updated


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At present the system does not appear like it will be 'extreme' however the predicted path of the storm does bring a sense of alarm as any upgrades in its intensity over the coming days could bring the most severe conditions to Ireland.

At present we can be 60-70% confident of a storm near 985mb tracking just to our northwest late Sunday.

Current projected conditions (as per UKM/GFS)

Period of heavy and intense rainfall - Upto 50mm of rain possible.

Severe winds. Wind gusts as high as 70mph in association with the approach of the warm front.

Watching the possible development of a storm system. A wave exits south of Newfoundland and looks in a very favourable position for development as it tracks eastward towards Ireland. There is also a jet streak in the region which could aid explosive development.

ECM has the system but doesn't develop it dramatically.

Lets see what tonight's runs make of it.

Post any related information below

Aerohead

Yehaaaaaaaw anything but this boreing weather

wildefalcon

Aerohead wrote: »

Yehaaaaaaaw anything but this boreing weather

Amen to that. This year has just been unending gloop since the end of March.

ninebeanrows

18z GFS a bit more developmental with this.

Definitely something to watch over the coming week. Exact developments won't be certain until much later in the week.

ninebeanrows

Breezy to the southwest......

Wolfe_IRE

Winds hitting 70-80kph in W Cork, S Kerry on the latest GFS run

System centre is positioned slightly north of the 12z run

Harps

Every single model run for the past few days has been coming up with a totally different solution for it, ECMWF still doesn't even develop it into a storm so a lot of uncertainty

The 18Z GFS is the first run to really track it over us as a proper storm

Looks like a direct hit on the 18Z NOGAPS as well

Deep Easterly

Very few of the ECMWF ensembles showing anything significant for next weekend but most showing some sort of sharp drop in MSLP values to our west. Going to be an interesting to watch nontheless. My head says side with the ECMWF, but heart instinctively sides with the GFS as the weather has been incredibly boring over the last few years weeks so please GFS, be right!

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

Harps

This mornings run..



ECMWF still doesn't do much with it and there's a lot of variation in the ensemble runs so odds at the moment are probably against it

gbee

My iPhone app show 40 to 50km/h winds all day from early morning through Sunday night 18th Nov.

I had spotted a severe looking rain line from last Friday but not showing too much rain?

Data NCEP/NOAA

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BOM:



GEM:



ECM:



ECM is really having none of it !

MrFrisp

If this storm happens,,is it going to be a "wet and windy" storm,,or one with that horrible snow stuff?
.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hi All

Just wondering from those with a bit more knowledge.

Why is the ECM not showing what the other models are ?

Speak Now

MrFrisp wrote: »

If this storm happens,,is it going to be a "wet and windy" storm,,or one with that horrible snow stuff?
.

Wind and rain.

MrFrisp

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Wind and rain.

Excellent..The best kind.

Thank you.
.

ninebeanrows

12z looks threatening.

ninebeanrows

GFS 12z has severe wind field just to our west at T150hrs..

UKM at 144 has the storm system in our southwest approaches, although not as deep as the GFS but plenty of time for this to change.

maquiladora

12Z GFS showing gales around the coasts, strongest in the west.



ECM hasn't been as keen with this though, so I have my doubts about it - unless that changes.

ninebeanrows

With the UKM showing it this evening, GEM showing it also. I expect the ECM will begin to offer something more potent in further runs.

I believe the storm will materialize, whether it is weak and to our south, intense and to our northwest or slam bang over us, i cannot tell.

Many days of model watching to go through before we can be certain. Probably not until Friday's 0z

ninebeanrows

ECM doesn't appear to go with it.

I don't buy the ECM evolution myself.

Cantona's Collars

Just caught the RTE forecast, 20-60mm of rain this week,there's a nice low off the coast of Spain also but doesn't look like that will impact us much.

Slightly ot,they also mentioned rain totalling 250mm to fall in Northern Italy:eek:

M.T. Cranium

LGEM also shows a strong wind event for Sunday. Taking that model back in steps it becomes apparent that the source of the low would be tropical, an area of cloud located north of Hispaniola today is shown developing into a low west of Bermuda within 36h (if it attracts the interest of the NHC it would be TD 20 and then possibly TS Valerie) and this deepens rapidly when it interacts with the frontal zone currently being pulled through the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. region towards the north Atlantic.

Given this origin and evolution it is not surprising to see such a difference in outcome on the ECM although even there you would get moderately strong south to southwest winds on Sunday night (the ECM appears 12h slower with its weaker scenario).

Anything could happen here, the feature in the subtropics could fail to develop at all, leaving the energy more as the ECM suggests, a trailing wave. Or this could explode into a late-season tropical storm as water temperatures are very conducive as far north as almost 40N and this is the prime development area for November cyclones (after the season we have had, one named storm in November would not be out of step at all).

If the 00z ECM comes on board then we have an alert situation in the making, after the superb job that the ECM did with Sandy, perhaps it is the turn of the other models to pick up earlier on this one. From what I recall, you could just about nowcast from the 192h ECM regarding Sandy.

ninebeanrows

Looks a wet one..

ninebeanrows

A late bloomer on the 18z.

Strikes the southwest coast when deepening rapidly.

That's the period when winds are usually there most severe, stingjets etc.

Flatters to decieve on the 18z. Appears to be deepening rapidly then steadies as makes landfall.

Su Campu

The difference between the ECMWF and the UK and GFS is in the depth of the upper trough over the Great Lakes area at 96 hours. The ECM has it shallower than the others, leading to less gradient and forcing. This is plausable, as we know that the GFS does overdo cold troughing, which would generate a stronger gradient and hence jetstream. I would say something between the lot would be a good compromise, but I can't see the ECM being totally wrong in sticking to its guns.

Deep Easterly

Going to be interesting to see which model has the better handle on this. Classic model squabble scenario.

M.T. Cranium

The subtropical system is developing gradually and got a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook but so far no indication of an investigation on the NHC map. Current location is near 27N 65W well to the east of Florida.

In the 00z model runs, I found the UK depiction most aggressive for Sunday and the GFS has toned down its development, while the GEM now goes more for the later secondary to develop, and the ECM has actually begun to develop the Sunday potential, so a lot of movement around the same sort of consensus, just different players for various roles.

This could end up doing almost anything and the timing is not very reliable in my opinion, there probably will be a strong wind event but timing could be anywhere from Sunday 18th to Thursday 22nd. On theoretical grounds I would favour the end of this time window and would not be surprised if the emphasis shifts to later in the week. So many of these tropical systems end up going a lot further north than first predicted and so it's a later round of development that might hit Ireland more directly.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann ruling out any big wind event over the weekend or early next week
2134 update WEEKEND: Cool over the weekend especially in northern counties. Mainly dry on Saturday with sunny spells, but showers will affect western and northern coastal counties. Saturday night will be cold with widespread sharp frost likely. Sunday will probably be a mostly dry day as well with some sunshine at first, but cloud will increase from the west as the day goes on, together with strengthening southerly winds, but rain will probably not arrive before evening time.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Changeable with rain at times, but generally mild with southerly winds prevailing.

Deep Easterly

Latest UKMO fax at 120 hrs. Deep low but nothing particularly vigorous, though it seems that the ECMWF 12z has fallen more into the UKMO's projection rather than vice-versa.

Oscar Bravo

Evelyn Cusack gave a nice description of how Met Eireann "come up" with the forecasts on the late night weather just there.Not sure if it wil be on the player.

M.T. Cranium

Currently the models remain lukewarm on this scenario, with about as much chance of a strong wind event mid-week as Sunday. No major model currently has depictions of any wind speeds greater than about 40-70 km/hr.

This is still very much "all up in the air" as we are dealing with this system evolving south of Bermuda:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_eusa_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Later readers please note, comments refer to the animation as of 14 Nov 21z.

The low is now near 30N and slowly evolving as per the guidance of the LGEM which is cited by the NHC as best guidance on this sort of transitional subtropical feature. So far the NHC have declined to give it any tropical billing such as the so-called "lemon" (yellow low risk of TC on map), after that comes tangerine and cherry (now you know what those US tropical guys are on about). After cherry comes TD, TS etc etc. This one just might become a "sub-tropical storm" before leaving 25C + waters around Friday morning south of NS-Nfld. I have not read any other opinions on this but feel that it could get that status and the name Valerie tomorrow. Also there are options for a TD or TS in the same general area next week.

Personally I would put my money on Thursday-Friday 22nd-23rd for any actual stronger winds to show up on later charts, and the period to about the end of November could become stormy.

ninebeanrows

Really interesting divergence in models.

ECM has swung to bombing this low but keeping it well to our northwest

Earlier GFS runs just had a non descript wave feature heading to our south and into France.

Quite significant differences at a short enough timeframe.

As an example:

At this short range i will re-introduce a Storm Watch as models are beginning to toy with a more aggressive outcome.


GFS 90hrs



ECM... 96. and 120

ninebeanrows

As example of wind potential:

Here are the 925hPa winds at 90hrs.

70 knot winds at this level could certainly mix to lower levels in association with the heavy precipitation
( So we could see wind gusts to as high as 65 knots at the surface if this were to occur )

EDIT: Looks like being a reallytricky system, a forecasters nightmare could be about to unfold. Tomorrow could be interesting,,,, watch this space. We could be upgrading to Level 2 in the morning.

whataboutnow

Netweather's 10day at glance predict 64mm of rain for monday in Castlederg Co.Tyrone. I check this everyday and they're usually spot on. May be an indication of the possible storms intensification as they was nothing worth noting yesterday

ninebeanrows

Will be interesting to see how the 12z plays this.

Still very high uncertainty with regard to the evolution and path of this low

ninebeanrows

No alarming developments from the 12z GFS

Low does develop but shows no exceptional intensification.

A 985mb low moves just to our northwest, giving some extremely heavy rainfall to large parts of Ireland.

Some strong gales in association with the passage of the warm front on Sunday.

Wind gusts to ground level near 55/60kt Sunday.

ninebeanrows

Do we finally have some consistency?

UKM does look more threatening. And if this system were to decide to head circa 10mb lower than progged it would all of a sudden be a very threatening storm.

Certainly forecasters in Irish Met & MetOffice will be watching this very closely.



UKM @72hrs



GFS @ 72hrs

whataboutnow

Legendary Michael fish forecast for the week ahead. He mentions severe gales in the north and west in the second half of his forecast. The rainfall echoes are extremely intense too especially in northern areas. http://www.netweather.tv/

Deep Easterly

That is one hell of a complex low pressure system that tonight's ECMWF is projecting for the early days of next week in the mid-Atlantic with a lot of mesoscale features within the larger, flabbier low.





From vedur.is

ninebeanrows

18z continues the threat of a moderate level storm.

At the moment we are staying steady with forecasts of wind gusts to 60/65 knots.

Just take a look at the 850hpa winds

Su Campu

Is a Level 2 not a bit ott? It's a normal depression, going to bring a few hours of strong winds to exposed locations, and some decent gusts to others. We get umpteen of these every year. This one is no different.

Level 1: Slight Chance of a Severe Event
Level 2: Moderate Risk
Level 3: Seek Shelter

I really think it's not even Level 1 on that scale.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Is a Level 2 not a bit ott? It's a normal depression, going to bring a few hours of strong winds to exposed locations, and some decent gusts to others. We get umpteen of these every year. This one is no different.

Level 1: Slight Chance of a Severe Event
Level 2: Moderate Risk
Level 3: Seek Shelter

I really think it's not even Level 1 on that scale.

I do think the Levels/wording need updating.

I suppose the moderate was to indicate, a moderate chance of it occurring.

The slight chance of a severe event can lead people to think, there is a 20% of a severe event etc.

I will look into updating these thresholds.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Is a Level 2 not a bit ott? It's a normal depression, going to bring a few hours of strong winds to exposed locations, and some decent gusts to others. We get umpteen of these every year. This one is no different.

Level 1: Slight Chance of a Severe Event
Level 2: Moderate Risk
Level 3: Seek Shelter

I really think it's not even Level 1 on that scale.

But i also disagree with 'upteem of these every year'

I think we get around circa 2-5 of these types of systems per year. There is a lot of energy in this system when it hits Ireland.

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

But i also disagree with 'upteem of these every year'

I think we get around circa 2-3 of these types of systems per year. There is a lot of energy in this system when it hits Ireland.

Of course it will be a welcome change to the recent drab, but it's still not a Carmen or Kyrill. They would be a Level 1-2 on that scale. I agree that there is a moderate, or even higher, chance of it happening, but it won't be a "Severe" event. A change of the wording would be a good idea alright, as would the addition of maybe one or two more levels.

Iancar29

A bit windy ... a bit wet

ninebeanrows

0z's up the ante a bit.

I have the suspicion this will be upgraded in the next day or 2 and may end a bit further northwest.

0z 925hPa winds

So real poss of wind gusts to 60-65kts and potentially up to 70kts in areas of very good mixing.

maquiladora

Met Eireann :

Winds will be strong and gusty south to southwesterly with gusts of 80 to 100 km/h in exposed places.

Not looking severe or unusual for this time of year really. Looks to be windy along some coasts but I can already see the posts from people living inland "Just a bit of wind...what storm?" etc.

whataboutnow

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann :



Not looking severe or unusual for this time of year really. Looks to be windy along some coasts but I can already see the posts from people living inland "Just a bit of wind...what storm?" etc.

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

ninebeanrows

whataboutnow wrote: »

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

Interesting opinion.

Meanwhile back to the storm system.

The 6z has become more keen on deepening this depression to the west of Ireland.

The highest winds still appear in association with the warm front passage but could be possibly some severe winds in assoc with the wrap around if the system continues to be progged to deepen.

Here is the 66hr chart for midnight Sunday.



925hPa winds (possibly low level gust range)



Sustained 10m winds

Storm 10

whataboutnow wrote: »

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

Of course it deserves a thread, how many systems have been posted on this board that were far more severe than Met Eireann forecast, it could be very interesting to see how it turns out dont forget this is a weather forum thats what we do here talk about the weather good or bad.

Redsunset

whataboutnow wrote: »

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

Boards.ie is a discussion forum.

You are currently in a designated area of this forum that deals in the discussion of weather.

There is a potentially strong depression approaching and like minded folks on here are currently discussing its potential course, severity etc.

This is what we do here.

Thank you.

P.S.

Talk about the weather in a constructive manner please.
End of discussion.