Property Price Register

thebman

Thing is riddled with errors on both prices and addresses.

Houses going for 5,000 Euro in more than a few areas where the other house prices are all 150,000 in same estate etc...

Doen't seem like any checks are being done on the data before it is submitted and it must be getting manually submitted.

Black Smoke

thebman wrote: »

Thing is riddled with errors on both prices and addresses.

Houses going for 5,000 Euro in more than a few areas where the other house prices are all 150,000 in same estate etc...

Doen't seem like any checks are being done on the data before it is submitted and it must be getting manually submitted.

I thought the source of the data, was Revenue!! Stamp duty paid on the transaction, means Revenue know the value of the sale.
This is "supposed", to be the source of the data for the register.
Shouldn't it be bang on correct. No faffing around

Dannyboy83

Black Smoke wrote: »

I thought the source of the data, was Revenue!! Stamp duty paid on the transaction, means Revenue know the value of the sale.
This is "supposed", to be the source of the data for the register.
Shouldn't it be bang on correct. No faffing around

The data entry problem is highly unlikely to be on revenue's side tbh...

Monty Burnz

magicbastarder wrote: »

banks are lending, despite what you've heard. i've received mortgage approval.

They are granting approval, but they are throwing wobblers when people try to draw down the mortgage. This is (one of the reasons) why mortgage lending is running at something like 4% of bubble levels.

magicbastarder

i know it's anecdotal, but i'm seeing far fewer sales falling through than seemed to be the case a year ago; which would imply the banks are coughing up.

Monty Burnz

magicbastarder wrote: »

i know it's anecdotal, but i'm seeing far fewer sales falling through than seemed to be the case a year ago; which would imply the banks are coughing up.

Thank goodness we have the property register now! A quick check suggest there were about 14,000 sales up to 21st September this year*, whereas there were about 12,000 by this time last year - a 14% increase. Not a huge amount, but not to be sneezed at either. Having said that, the number of transactions is only a fraction of what is would be under normal conditions so it's an increase from a very small base. The 2012 numbers are also running slightly behind the 2010 numbers.

*Of course, there could be some sales that have not yet appeared in the register for some reason.

omahaid

Are there plans for further years to be added? It would be interesting to see the last 15 years data.

Monty Burnz

omahaid wrote: »

Are there plans for further years to be added? It would be interesting to see the last 15 years data.

I don't think so.

Black Smoke

magicbastarder wrote: »

i know it's anecdotal, but i'm seeing far fewer sales falling through than seemed to be the case a year ago; which would imply the banks are coughing up.

I was in my bank this morning as it happens. BOI. Nothing got to do with morgtage, but I enquired as I was there as to what is happening. My man, told me they have seen a significant pick up in applications and approvals for morgtages this past two quarters. Once ability to service the loan, and ability to sustain interest increase, is properly demonstrated, then loans are being approved. Interestingly, he also said, that the number of approved loans, which were never actually drawn down, subsequent to approval, has fallen dramatically, compared to last couple of years.

Monty Burnz

Black Smoke wrote: »

I was in my bank this morning as it happens. BOI. Nothing got to do with morgtage, but I enquired as I was there as to what is happening. My man, told me they have seen a significant pick up in applications and approvals for morgtages this past two quarters. Once ability to service the loan, and ability to sustain interest increase, is properly demonstrated, then loans are being approved. Interestingly, he also said, that the number of approved loans, which were never actually drawn down, subsequent to approval, has fallen dramatically, compared to last couple of years.

It's odd that we are not seeing that reflected in the actual statistics? Perhaps we will see it in the next 2 quarters as the sales have not gone through yet.

SouperComputer

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/all-agree-that-property-prices-are-on-the-rise-3243887.html

***k me.

Monty Burnz

SouperComputer wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/all-agree-that-property-prices-are-on-the-rise-3243887.html

***k me.

The usual propaganda from the usual sources.

Dannyboy83

SouperComputer wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/all-agree-that-property-prices-are-on-the-rise-3243887.html

Indo: all-agree-that-property-prices-are-on-the-rise

Except the Central bank...

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-could-take-22-years-to-recover-warns-central-bank-report-3249091.html

House prices could take 22 years to recover, warns Central Bank report

creedp

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Except the Central bank...

To be fair the article says it could take between 11 and 22 years to reach boom time levels again. So it could be 11 years or 14 years - with 22 years being on the extreme end of the estimate. In any case I think many people are not too overly focused on recovering to boom time levels at this point but would instead like to see some price stability and sales/demand starting to ignite again. For many people getting back to boom time levels is a pipe dream.

Monty Burnz

creedp wrote: »

For many people getting back to boom time levels is a pipe dream.

A pipe nightmare might be a better description. The cost of basic human needs (like food or shelter) getting more expensive is not really good news.

magicbastarder

creedp wrote: »

To be fair the article says it could take between 11 and 22 years to reach boom time levels again. So it could be 11 years or 14 years - with 22 years being on the extreme end of the estimate. In any case I think many people are not too overly focused on recovering to boom time levels at this point but would instead like to see some price stability and sales/demand starting to ignite again. For many people getting back to boom time levels is a pipe dream.

yep - we don't *want* house prices to reach boom levels again for many years to come.
assuming an inflation rate of 3%, it'd be 30 years for house prices to get back to where they were five years ago.

the groutch

SouperComputer wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/all-agree-that-property-prices-are-on-the-rise-3243887.html

***k me.

Yes, these people all have a vested interest in property prices rising

sums up the entire article

Dannyboy83

Intersting comments from NAMAWINELAKE

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/irish-residential-property-price-roundup-q32012-daft-myhome-sherry-fitzgerald/

(1) At a national level, prices dropped 0-3% in quarter three of 2012 and 12-14% in the last year and are now 50-57% down from peak.

(2) In Dublin, prices fell 1% according to DAFT, but according to Myhome and Sherry FitzGerald were up 1-2% in the quarter. Annually Dublin prices are down 6-14% and are down 55-60% from peak.

(3) DAFT.ie and Myhome.ie both provide 26-county-by-county results.

(4) All sources indicate supply levels are stable at national level but have reduced in Dublin.

In terms of how the different sources compile their statistics this is what each has to say.

(1) DAFT.ie : Its index is based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The national average is built up from Census weights per county, in effect ensuring the average reflects where people live, not any variations from that that may exist in Daft’s market share. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties and only coefficients with a very high degree of statistical significance (p < 0.001) are used. The average monthly sample size for sales during 2009 was over 10,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2007 used as the base. A working paper on the methodologies employed in both rental and sales markets will be published on the Daft.ie website soon. Stock and flow statistics are calculated using consistent series for the period covered. The change to the national average price is built up from Census weights per county, in effect ensuring the average reflects where people live, not any variations from that that may exist in Daft’s market share.

(2) Myhome.ie : Its index is based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie with comparisons by quarter over the last six years. This represents the majority of properties for sale inIreland from leading estate agents nationwide. The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniques. Their data is collected from quarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie. Their main National and Dublin indices have been constructed with a widely-used regression technique which adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each quarter. Since the supply of property in each quarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured. Their method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix.

(3) Sherry FitzGerald : Its index is based on the analysis of a basket of properties in its locations nationwide. Commencing in 1996 in the Dublin market, it was extended nationwide in 1999. Each basket of properties was chosen based on a weighted profile of properties in each location. The basket extends to over 1,500 properties, which are re-valued on a monthly basis for Dublin properties and a quarterly basis for nationwide properties with results produced quarterly. The basket is held constant and re-valued based on market evidence. Sherry FitzGerald through its franchise network is represented in every major city, town and county in Ireland.

So two of the above are asking price indices and the Sherry FitzGerald index is a valuation assessment index (akin to how SCS/IPD and JLL compile the commercial property indices as far as I can see)

And reply from Continuity EPR, posted by Ronan Lyons:
http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/10/04/reports-of-our-death-are-greatly-exaggerated-existing-house-price-reports-respond/


On a side note, funny war on twitter ongoing between Eddie Hobbs and Ronan Lyons.

Big C

11 to 22 years ? hope they not pay a lot for that research,
they were the lucky stars numbers in euromillions last week

magicbastarder

i keep hearing this 50-57% fall statistic; generally speaking, from what i've seen, it's over 60%, and probably closer to 65%.

creedp

Monty Burnz wrote: »

A pipe nightmare might be a better description. The cost of basic human needs (like food or shelter) getting more expensive is not really good news.

That's the other side of the equation of course ... I was just referring to the negative equity households who might just be able to move house in a few years time if the negative equity had reduced to some kind of sustainable level. You are correct though every basic human need is subject to inflation over time and housing costs (purchase price/rent) is no different I'm afraid.

Scortho

SouperComputer wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/all-agree-that-property-prices-are-on-the-rise-3243887.html

***k me.

The only things I've seen rising (and only marginally) is the 3-4 bed family homes in sought after areas of SCD and to a lesser extent Glasnevin, drumcondra etc. These are fairly in demand at the moment as young professionals view them as a house for life as opposed to getting a foot on the ladder.

SouperComputer

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The usual propaganda from the usual sources.

That's what I mean though. Its just staggering that this rubbish persists!

Mr.Wemmick

These articles use to annoy me, no end. Now, I think they're fceking hilarious, especially words like "All agree.."

I am looking forward to how the next one will read..

'tis akin to watching your local dodgy sales man trying to sell a knackered banger in glossy new paint to an unsuspecting customer and making out it's the best deal ever.. Best prices in Europe!

the good old days, it seems, with the boys and their tricks, are alive and well in Ireland.

Monty Burnz

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

These articles use to annoy me, no end. Now, I think they're fceking hilarious, especially words like "All agree.."

Unfortunately, we have learned that the Average Joe in this country is highly susceptible to this sort of thing. That's why you are always hearing 'nobody warned us' and 'everybody said it was a good time to buy'.

This sort of propaganda is dangerous.

Mr.Wemmick

I think the tide has turned. People are older and wiser after all that has happened, and they're still witnessing the money in their pockets becoming less and less as the months roll on.. austerity will be with us for some time yet and most are now aware of that. Well, I think and hope they are..

I agree with other posters who state that the houses being bought, 3 bed semis, in and around Dublin, are for the long term and that is the increase we are seeing.

magicbastarder

when people see stuff like this happening, you have to assume some in the queue will be thinking about buying instead.
€1400 per month is the equivalent of a mortgage of €280k at 4% over 30 years.

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2012/10/04/going-rental-in-ranelagh/

Cuddlesworth

magicbastarder wrote: »

when people see stuff like this happening, you have to assume some in the queue will be thinking about buying instead.
€1400 per month is the equivalent of a mortgage of €280k at 4% over 30 years.

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2012/10/04/going-rental-in-ranelagh/

Its a nice location close to Town and Rathmines at a time of year which has huge amounts of new professionals starting training contracts and people starting up college.

I saw some of these property's last year, queues down the street. I looked at areas a 10 minute walk further out of town and saw nobody turn up to viewings.

At the end of the day, if its a three bed house with decent space the monthly rent per room is 450. Go look at some 450 bedsits in the area and you will see why they queue.

creedp

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

These articles use to annoy me, no end. Now, I think they're fceking hilarious, especially words like "All agree.."

I am looking forward to how the next one will read..

'tis akin to watching your local dodgy sales man trying to sell a knackered banger in glossy new paint to an unsuspecting customer and making out it's the best deal ever.. Best prices in Europe!

the good old days, it seems, with the boys and their tricks, are alive and well in Ireland.

Not wanting to be a devils advocate on this issue but I assume people are not seeking a complete media black-out on articles commenting on property price increases? Is it a complete no no in this county to mention that property prices are increasing (where that is a fact) or may increase over 7 to 20 years? I know there is a general salvitating around articles which talk about price crashes and futher significant price falls. No issue with that where they are based on objective facts.

Surely though articles like those above are hardly going to drive the average Paddy wild with desire to fork out big bucks for over priced housing. Is Paddy that stupid? Maybe that's why there are so many bright new sparkling new Audi's on the road - Paddy has been driven mad by the ads that he deserves the comfort of luxury motoring at any cost.

We are actually in a scenario where price increases are happening/or being predicted on the back of a 50 -60% reduction in prices - its hardly a criminal activity to report on something like this. Is it?

Dannyboy83

creedp wrote: »

We are actually in a scenario where price increases are happening/or being predicted on the back of a 50 -60% reduction in prices - its hardly a criminal activity to report on something like this. Is it?

Criminal - nope, but when it's juxtaposed with the domestic economy falling down around our ears, lack of credit, removal of mortgage interest relief, introduction of property and water taxes, and 8 more austerity budgets - it's perceived as a straightforward shill.