Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Musicman2000

What a fantastic run from the ECM 12z. There would be serious streamers coming in off the Irish sea BUT its a long way off.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM 240hr chart is fantastic, FI but hey it shows what could happen in a set up like this.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ramp !

Duggys Housemate

Met office is still cold for Ireland through the weekend.

Musicman2000

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Met office is still cold for Ireland through the weekend.

Looks like anything milder is going to be short lived.

TheMilkyPirate

t|nt|n wrote: »

Ramp !

It'll be gone tomorrow so we might as well!

Deep Easterly

Tonight's ECMWF 240 chart a pretty much a huge 'outlier'



Not out of the realms of possibility of course with some signals that a kink in the pattern will develop once again. I think the only thing that is becoming certain now is that the present uninspiring cool set up will continue for the foreseeable.

srmambo

Some nice signals for snow accumulation on Weatheronline's GFS chart at T144

Su Campu

Musicman2000 wrote: »

What a fantastic run from the ECM 12z. There would be serious streamers coming in off the Irish sea BUT its a long way off.

A word of caution with that chart - and I expect to be slated for it - but with such high pressure (around 1025 hPa):

The cold 850 temps will be around 200-250 metres higher up than with say a surface pressure of around 1000 hPa, therefore that's an extra 250 m of warmer layers that snow would have to survive, and

That inversion will strongly cap convection over the sea, so any showers would be very shallow.

Still good to get cold 850s so near, but always look at the big picture and beyond single charts.

Cue the abuse....:pac:

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

A word of caution with that chart - and I expect to be slated for it - but with such high pressure (around 1025 hPa):

The cold 850 temps will be around 200-250 metres higher up than with say a surface pressure of around 1000 hPa, therefore that's an extra 250 m of warmer layers that snow would have to survive, and

That inversion will strongly cap convection over the sea, so any showers would be very shallow.

Still good to get cold 850s so near, but always look at the big picture and beyond single charts.

Cue the abuse....:pac:

But i've just ordered my sledge and igloo building kit? :eek::mad:

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

But i've just ordered my sledge and igloo building kit? :eek::mad:

I bet you threw out the receipts

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

Cue the abuse....:pac:

Who'd abuse you Su! :eek:

Good points....well put.

dexter647

DOCARCH wrote: »

Who'd abuse you Su! :eek:

Good points....well put.

Good points indeed..Learn something new here everyday:)

Nabber

I sometimes think that the weather forums and sites pay off one of the model runs to tweak the 190+ output, get the hit counts up

Don't think this one will come off for Ireland anyways. Just an opinion not backed with fact.

Be interesting to see how the models handle the system coming up from the Atlantic.

derekon

Netweather has just issued its winter forecast for the UK and Europe.

Key points:

1.Very low confidence in a mild winter

2. Temperatures will be down 1.5oC to 3oc (in some places 4oC) when compared to the long term average

3. Likeliest periods for cold weather are start/mid December and mid January through to early February.

4. Blocking first over Greenland and then over Scandinavia will be common this winter.

A good forecast for snow lovers so, however time will tell. Link just below so you can view it at your leisure........:D

D


http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2012;sess=

Wolfe_IRE

GFS ensembles verify growing signs that any severe cold spell might be a while away yet. Conditions look cool zonal for the coming 10 days at least with occasional 24 hr darts of cold from nw or n with some wintry showers and possible snow for hills.
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=36&y=31

derekon

In any case, welcome to Ireland's weather boards, you are very welcome and your contribution is of benefit. At 6.40am this morning, parts of Dublin (Casement) reporting -2oC with the Airport at -1oC.

It will be a cold day in Ireland's capital city with a peak of 4oC anticipated.

I think we could be in for a cold winter and you are right, technically it has not even started!

D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Looking at the 528 DAM line here, could the east see anything ? Sorry, not used to FAX charts !

Sponge Bob

Thursday Night Met E are forecasting "perhaps a little snow" with "hill snow" on saturday.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Pangea

So much for met eireanns forecast for it turning milder at the weekend then.

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

Looking at the 528 DAM line here, could the east see anything ? Sorry, not used to FAX charts !

If I remember correctly from Listening to Su over the years ,

No, maybe some hill snow but but 524 or lower would be best for lower level snow

Redsunset

chart is out of date. updated version shows no 528.

Anyway Pete is right.Need much lower. Show me around 520 and sea level snow is more certain. [/IMG]

Deep Easterly

ECM mean at day 10 this morning pretty much as you were. Cool conditions with air mass alternating between P3 and P6 types, or to wit, pretty much as now but generally more unsettled. Still trying to build pressure to our north with an increase in surface pressure over Scandinavia and weak upper ridge extending NE'wards from Atlantic but nothing significant being projected as of yet at least.

Wolfe_IRE

BWS concedes (kind of) that it's weeks of press-garnering hype about snowfall and subzero temps has not materialised. You won't see the media run this climb down though.

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/more-patience-required/

Wolfe_IRE

Interesting read. I am surprised by the results mind you.


State of global temperatures in 2012
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/global-temperatures-2012?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Nabber

GFS seemed to be under playing the nothern block. A big storm would be a nice way to bring us into winter. Forget about snow for a few weeks lads. She aint coming, some of you will be use to that anyways

derekon

Good to see some really cold air now being established to our north east over Norway.

Check out the 10 day forecast for Oslo - some days only reach a max of -9oC with some nights falling to -12oC.

Might be a case that cold is only establishing itself now in Scandinavia/Eastern Europe which might aid Ireland's snow chances as we go through our winter on this island

D

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Oslo-NOXX0029

Su Campu

The GFS is hinting at some snow above around 150-200 m in the northern half of the country Monday night. As per usual, it is painting a much colder picture than the rest of the models so (don't) watch this space.

Weathering

God only knows what we have in store people..exciting

DanRu

Excellent run from the GFS 6Z