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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)
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Not sure where the idea that the strat is shaping up nicely has come from. Its current zorro-mask split is only short-lived and both GFS and ECMWF are showing a strong PV again within a week. The EPV flux will have little effect.
GFS analysis and 240 hr.
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Not sure where the idea that the strat is shaping up nicely has come from. Its current zorro-mask split is only short-lived and both GFS and ECMWF are showing a strong PV again within a week. The EPV flux will have little effect.
GFS analysis and 240 hr.
In other words are you saying to keep are waterproofs at the ready instead of sleighs. Snow chance on Thursday for northern regions?0 -
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How anybody can despair when you have this sort of stuff showing at t180 is beyond me...
Of course the above chart is subject to change, FI seem to be 96 hours recently, so I wouldn't be getting excited. But there is certainly more than a hint of hope of something wintry on the way!
I think the despair is common since 2010; I am noticing a trend that unless the weather is comparable to the winter 2010 then it is not cold nor snowy, despite there being below average temps and frost/ice/snow on the ground.0 -
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I see nothing to hint at anything more than brief cold days in an otherwise progressive pattern, so can't understand where the optimism shown by some is coming from. Azores high seems the winner this month, so we're relying on some glancing lows over the top to give any hope. Thursday's not looking anything special. A cold northwesterly, but again we have a few thousand miles of Atlantic to spoil snow chances for all but those on high ground in the north.
18z GFS @ t144- Greenland high forming, low pressure set up around the azores.
ECM 12z @ t144, similar story.
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18z GFS @ t144- Greenland high forming, low pressure set up around the azores.
ECM 12z @ t144, similar story.
You've taken one snapshot in time and picked it out, ignoring the other majority of snapshots that show by and large the Azores high or an extension of it persisting somewhere in mid Atlantic, or even forming a Bartlett farther out in FI. I was talking about the month as a whole. I said there may be the odd exception but on the whole there is no signal of sustained northern blocking.0 -
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Honestly, from what I can see, there has been a much stronger signal for northern blocking than for a Azores or Bartlett high.
There has been a signal, however if you look back the Blocking High around Iceland / Greenland has been signalled in models but has not come to pass. The NAO outturn vs projected graphs show that. The 7 day has been very wobbly for the last fortnight and the outturn is not always in band. Firt thing you need is to tidy that BLACK line up, m'kays.
Then confidence in the models may grow. For now the models are flip flopping like mad and are unreliable.
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18z GFS @ t144- Greenland high forming, low pressure set up around the azores.
ECM 12z @ t144, similar story.
You've taken one snapshot in time and picked it out, ignoring the other majority of snapshots that show by and large the Azores high or an extension of it persisting somewhere in mid Atlantic, or even forming a Bartlett farther out in FI. I was talking about the month as a whole. I said there may be the odd exception but on the whole there is no signal of sustained northern blocking.
BEASTERLY did not just choose a snapshot that showed those conditions, most weather models are showing the same if not more extensive northern blocking- for example all of the charts below-
Our current situation- lets see whats forecast over the next 2 weeks-
+72hrs ECMWF 12z Ensemble Mean
+168hrs ECMWF 12z Ensemble Mean- This is a fantastic chart with a displaced weak vortex with heights to our NW and a low to our east dragging down air from our north.
+240hrs ECMWF 12z Ensemble Mean, No signal for an azores high there and still a displaced vortex.
18z GFS at +120hrs- Atlantic blocked off and WAA over greenland.
+168hrs we have a south east Greenland High. Northerly winds over Ireland/The UK. + a Big Siberian high building.
8-10 Day ECM and GFS Mean charts show alot more high pressure than low pressure to our north, this is what I would class as Northern Blocking.
NAEFS charts for days 6-10 and 8-14 speak for themselves- outstanding blocking to our north.
6-10 day
8-14 day
AO is also forecast to stay negative -
If none of that is a signal for sustained Northern Blocking then I dont know what is. Charts couldnt be much better in my opinion.
Dan
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BEASTERLY did not just choose a snapshot that showed those conditions, most weather models are showing the same if not more extensive northern blocking- for example all of the charts below-
If none of that is a signal for sustained Northern Blocking then I dont know what is. Charts couldnt be much better in my opinion.
Dan
A lovely trend indeed...long may it continue! :cool:0 -
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Just a feeling. Nothing on the strat horizon, eroding warm SST anomaly in the NW Atlantic and Arctic and lack of blocking thus far. I don't have access to the ECM 32 and I don't rate the CFS much. I've said all along that I thought the best chance for proper cold this winter, if it were to happen, would be before Christmas, but I'm losing faith in that now.
Lack of blocking? Just because it hasnt been in the perfect position for Ireland doesn't mean it has been absent...
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@ Blizzard: The same question to you. Apart from just the models, why do you think we'll see prolonged cold? The models could be wrong.
Just to be clear, I think we will see prolonged cold this winter but im not sure it will be this month, in the above posts I am just trying to interpret what the models are currently showing, this can and will change, for better or worse.
Well this is the model output discussion thread so im just saying what the models are showing, what other indicators as to what the weather will be like in the future do we have? Other than pattern matching etc.
There is another reason why I think we are going to have a cold ,snowy winter though, and that is because I believe we have entered a new era in our climate because of the reduced solar activity since 2008, I think this is the main driver behind our colder winters and wetter summers over the last few years. The Maunder and Dalton solar minimums also occured at the same time as extremely harsh winters and even the "Little Ice Age" with the maunder minimum. I believe they were what caused those colder years.
Even in the "little Ice Age" there were warmer winters and so this would explain last winter as the exception rather than the norm if we have indeed seen the sun drastically affect our climate.
This is all slightly off topic but is in answer to your question and is one of the reasons why I believe we are going to see extended cold either at some stage or even throughout this winter.
Dan 0 -
@ Blizzard: The same question to you. Apart from just the models, why do you think we'll see prolonged cold? The models could be wrong.
Well if we roll back to the 22nd of November the GFS tells us yesterday, sunday was cold, a block was in place and a Scandinavian airflow was in situ...except we hit 11.7c in a mild Atlantic flow instead.
BOO Models!
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Just to be clear, I think we will see prolonged cold this winter but im not sure it will be this month, in the above posts I am just trying to interpret what the models are currently showing, this can and will change, for better or worse.
Well this is the model output discussion thread so im just saying what the models are showing, what other indicators as to what the weather will be like in the future do we have? Other than pattern matching etc.
There is another reason why I think we are going to have a cold ,snowy winter though, and that is because I believe we have entered a new era in our climate because of the reduced solar activity since 2008, I think this is the main driver behind our colder winters and wetter summers over the last few years. The Maunder and Dalton solar minimums also occured at the same time as extremely harsh winters and even the "Little Ice Age" with the maunder minimum. I believe they were what caused those colder years.
Even in the "little Ice Age" there were warmer winters and so this would explain last winter as the exception rather than the norm if we have indeed seen the sun drastically affect our climate.
This is all slightly off topic but is in answer to your question and is one of the reasons why I believe we are going to see extended cold either at some stage or even throughout this winter.
Dan
Right, so your reply was totally based on models then.
This is not purely a MODEL OUTPUT discussion thread, unless I missed the memo. It's a technical discussion, it just so happens it's turned into a MODEL rollercoaster!
Solar activity has been on the increase for the past couple of years. How would you explain last winter? Quoting winters hundreds of years ago is no guarantee of cold this winter!0 -
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exactly, the chart for sunday 9th has a very mild looking southwesterly, within 24 hours we're in a cold northerlyStrangegravy wrote: »In fairness I could probably draw random lines on a napkin in the dark that'd give a more accurate representation of what the weather will be like post 144hours..
ignore anything beyond 72 hours I'd say.
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Also watching ME summary of November they had the central part of Ireland (west-East) as being well below the average rainfall? Surely that was wrong? We had a week of rain here which im sure matched the monthly rain total?
Belmullet had 147mm http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=2375
Valentia had 213mm and dingle 184mm, wet wet wet
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This discussion has been closed.
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