Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Harps

The thing I don't get with this whole spell is that at no point has a proper cold spell been projected at all..

No problem discussing the potential obviously but there's only been a handful of model runs all week that showed a brief flirt with cold weather and for the most part the forecast has been for a cool and dry week. You'd swear a December 2010 type event was imminent from all the talk over the past few days

Eastcoastryan

Anybody care to explain what this chart would bring for Ireland?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Iancar29

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Anybody care to explain what this chart would bring for Ireland?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Good for snow showers on the eastern flank of ENGLAND .. possible sleety mix here as stated above.

Su Campu

munsterlegend wrote: »

As a matter of interest which model would you rate for this part of the world as most reliable or is it a combination of them all?

In most cases I would say ECMWF and GEM for winter. GFS is a bit useless in some setups

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

In most cases I would say ECMWF and GEM for winter. GFS is a bit useless in some setups

Cold rain then for the weekend! There does seem a lot of uncertainty this weekend in the Uk as to how things will work out what with the Ukmo v ECM debate.

DanRu

Can someone explain if there is any connection between the bad summers we've had consecutively over the past 4-5 years and the winters where blocking sets up over Europe, not necessarily Ireland.Winter 2010 Blocking/ winter 2011 blocking in Europe and I'm going out on a limb here but the same again for this year. Another questions is about the polar vortex splitting. Does this happen every year or is this just a recent phenomenon over the past few years? Thanks

Su Campu

Just remember there looks like there'll be a day v night, black v white difference between us and the UK this weekend. Quoting UK posts from "forecasters" will be very misleading as they will be in much better shape in terms of snow potential.

Redsunset

Model discussion only please. Numerous posts gone.

munsterlegend

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Wednesday night will be dry and mostly clear with little or no wind; sharp to severe ground frost will set in widely, along with some patches of freezing fog in the midlands. Thursday will start dry and mostly sunny but frost and fog may linger for the morning in places. By early afternoon, outbreaks of rain will reach western counties and these will spread slowly east to affect most other parts of the country by the end of the day; in mountainous areas, the rain may turn to sleet occasionally. Due to mostly cloudy conditions with further outbreaks of rain, Thursday night will be frost-free and winds will stay light. The cloudy conditions will likely persist through Friday also; patches of rain will occur now and again but many places will have dry spells also. On Friday night, the rain will mostly die out and some breaks may appear in the cloud, leading to the danger of some icy patches. Saturday is likely to be a dry day with sunny spells and light winds, though still cold, while Sunday and early next week will become slightly less cold, breezier and cloudier, with rain at times.

Well it looks like all the hope as evaporated for any significant cold spell in the near future. Well done to Maq and MT and others for pointing out this scenario was a likely possibility. Anyway at least there is hope what with the beginning of Winter officially around the corner.

snaps

And the UK daily express has on the front page that UK will be hit by a severe cold spell from tomorrow onwards. Down as low as -15 with snow until the end of the year. Very cold and wet here in the west this morning.

Elmer Blooker

derekon wrote: »

So I would be correct in saying that if the Azores High stays where it is until next March, all Ireland will get is one mucky mild toppling low after another? i.e. an abundance of mild muck ? :D

D

Possibly? At the moment the Azores is linking with an Arctic high giving us this cold spell, it appears the Arctic high will weaken next weekend letting the Atlantic back in.
This chart is what we want to see, no HP in the Azores area.
I was looking through the archives at charts from famous cold spells eg. 1916-7, 1946-7, 1978-9, 1982, 1987 and of course 2010 - NONE of them show HP in the general Azores area.


Last winter the azores was there for months, a big scandinavian high linked with the azores giving a freeze over Europe and most of England but this chart is a good example why we missed out, we were under the influence of mild Atlantic air due to our old friend the Azores high!

Caff Caff

The Herald had a headline yesterday saying temps were to drop below freezing to -6. This was on the jacket of one of those Herald cannon fodder for cars you see smiling at you in the hope you buy one off them as you wait impatiently in traffic. I should have picked one up. Did anyone see this piece? I find it odd considering it was exactly the headline on skynews for the UK. MT has little to say today as he is in transit but clearly nothing to write home about.

The models are still touch and go but at least we know it will be cold and not the mild snorefest we had to endure last year. I think we may see colder temps closer to Christmas but whether (weather) there is potential for snow...well that's in the hands of the model Gods!

Larbre34

Caff Caff wrote: »

The Herald had a headline yesterday saying temps were to drop below freezing to -6. This was on the jacket of one of those Herald cannon fodder for cars you see smiling at you in the hope you buy one off them as you wait impatiently in traffic. I should have picked one up. Did anyone see this piece? I find it odd considering it was exactly the headline on skynews for the UK. MT has little to say today as he is in transit but clearly nothing to write home about.

The models are still touch and go but at least we know it will be cold and not the mild snorefest we had to endure last year. I think we may see colder temps closer to Christmas but whether (weather) there is potential for snow...well that's in the hands of the model Gods!

Not to tempt fate, but I feel it will be exactly that a lot of the time. Agreed that we might have some short spells of wintry weather but I think it will be neither sustained nor penetrating, my overall impression is that we might just be the wrong side of the fun yet again and stuck in under a zonal buffer. Its what Ive thought for about 6 weeks already, but I would never be more happy to be wrong.

Sponge Bob

The NAO signal is mildly but not strongly negative...meaning the Azores high won't go away altogether over the next fortnight.

So we might all end up like we did back in Feb of this year, tucked under a zonal milds and oohing and aahing at the -15 in Scotland or England overnight. It was completely mad around here at that time, so near, so promising, and yet so far.

Deep Easterly

This morning's ECM Ensemble mean up to day 10 going for yet more trough conditions over NW Europe and continuing on the cool side. Also hints at a possible increase in surface pressure to our north though seems to have no upper support - - yet at least.



The above seems to be the typical overall pattern for most of this Autumn so far shows no sign of changing to any large extent just yet. I am not sure but I think this autumn will finish with below average MSLP values once again but will check the daily IMT pressure values for the season post up here later.

EDIT: Chart showing MSLP anomalies over north Atlantic region for this autumn so far (1 Sept - 25th Nov) These are based only on the 17 year average 1979 - 1995 but pretty much sums up the wider synoptic pattern this season with higher than normal surface pressure east of Canada/south of Greenland and lower than average values west of Norway. Values around 2 to 4 hPa lower than normal over Ireland. Will compare these later to the 1981-2010 means later on (this will be bit more of a task)


From the NCEP

BLIZZARD7

munsterlegend wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Wednesday night will be dry and mostly clear with little or no wind; sharp to severe ground frost will set in widely, along with some patches of freezing fog in the midlands. Thursday will start dry and mostly sunny but frost and fog may linger for the morning in places. By early afternoon, outbreaks of rain will reach western counties and these will spread slowly east to affect most other parts of the country by the end of the day; in mountainous areas, the rain may turn to sleet occasionally. Due to mostly cloudy conditions with further outbreaks of rain, Thursday night will be frost-free and winds will stay light. The cloudy conditions will likely persist through Friday also; patches of rain will occur now and again but many places will have dry spells also. On Friday night, the rain will mostly die out and some breaks may appear in the cloud, leading to the danger of some icy patches. Saturday is likely to be a dry day with sunny spells and light winds, though still cold, while Sunday and early next week will become slightly less cold, breezier and cloudier, with rain at times.

Well it looks like all the hope as evaporated for any significant cold spell in the near future. Well done to Maq and MT and others for pointing out this scenario was a likely possibility. Anyway at least there is hope what with the beginning of Winter officially around the corner.

I would agree with you, except thats a forecast! Not the past! Lets judge what people say after the event, not before...


And im sticking with my upgrade scenario, with slider lows and heights re-building and a slight movement of the high westwards/lows a bit more south we might just manage to stay on the cold side of things with lows passing to our south... Watch this space...





Dan

konman

nice wind event for 7th -8th of december, was showing at the weekend on the GFS and disappeared again till today. ECMWF on board as well. I know its in FI but what do the more educated in here think?




jaysus made a hames of that, sorry

hatrickpatrick

Could someon link to the table which translates the colour numbers in the map above to temperatures based on the air pressure? I had that earlier but can't seem to find it now, it was a fairly massive grid table

snowstreams

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

.....
This chart is what we want to see, no HP in the Azores area.
I was looking through the archives at charts from famous cold spells eg. 1916-7, 1946-7, 1978-9, 1982, 1987 and of course 2010 - NONE of them show HP in the general Azores area....

Elmer what about 1963? That was a big freeze year too but the difference I suppose was that 1963 was a dry cold with not much snow.
Maybe the azores high linked up with the artic high and caused it to be much drier than the other big freeze years?

Sponge Bob

snowstreams wrote: »

Maybe the azores high linked up with the artic high and caused it to be much drier than the other big freeze years?

Block. No pressure gradient between the Greenland/Iceland high and the Azores high

snowstreams

We definitely need that Azores high to go so.

tresb26

00Z ECM clusters towards mid-month (11th/12th onwards) show higher pressure becoming more dominant again to the N/NW of the UK - according to matt hugo

Deep Easterly

snowstreams wrote: »

Maybe the azores high linked up with the artic high and caused it to be much drier than the other big freeze years?

This sequence for the period 15-25th December 1962 shows the Azores becoming absorbed into an Arctic continental high. The rest is history.



Although the winter of 2009/2010 was almost as intense, both in terms of
temperature and duration, the difference between that winter and the winter of 62/63 is that the latter was also noted for being much windier on a day to day basis along with lower relative humidity as air was more sourced from central and eastern Europe, so very likely that it would have been a much more severe winter in terms of actual 'felt' cold and windchill. The cold weather of 2009/2010 was largely maritime sourced and a lot less breezy overall.

Sponge Bob

snowstreams wrote: »

We definitely need that Azores high to go so.

No you don't , YOU need it to HELP rather than overwhelm an Iceland High. . I need it to stay because I like wet and mild me.

Sponge Bob

maw368 wrote: »

What do people think of Will Coopers forecast?

The fun with Will Cooper was in this here very thread last month. It starts here and lasts until Mindgame deconstructs the source material a short while later.

munsterlegend

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I would agree with you, except thats a forecast! Not the past! Lets judge what people say after the event, not before...


And im sticking with my upgrade scenario, with slider lows and heights re-building and a slight movement of the high westwards/lows a bit more south we might just manage to stay on the cold side of things with lows passing to our south... Watch this space...





Dan

I hope you're right Dan!

Wolfe_IRE

A video to mark the occasion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YoY1rGFeVs

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Can't we just move the fecking island a bit :mad:

delw

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

A video to mark the occasion

Brilliant,laughed all the way through as i was picturing some people like that.
"I went to Dunnes &................." :D

Iancar29

AND Here we go all over again...:D :rolleyes: