Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Sponge Bob

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think the current UK Met outlook is the most balanced and credible summary available, there's too much pinning the tail on the models for a forecast going on all over the net.

Quote of the year for me.:D

People are angling for a self fulfilling prophecy and the tetchyness evident over it not rolling out is just daft for the time of year.

And it isn't even winter yet.

Wolfe_IRE

Larbre34 wrote: »

People are angling for a self fulfilling prophecy and the tetchyness evident over it not rolling out is just daft for the time of year.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ian Ferguson (UK Met) on NW

Exeter lean towards the block being a temporary phase ahead of return to mobility, albeit their detailed 6-10d prognosis (not copied below, but abstracted version of their latest (00z run) analysis is shown here, incl to trend period) expresses obvious uncertainties (including as emphasised in some posts here already):
"4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Still much greater than average level of uncertainty through this period. Most likely scenario is for rather cold unsettled cyclonic W to NW to displace the cold/blocked type at least for time but with an increasing probably that blocking becomes re-established with the UK within the cyclonic limb of the block.
5. Discussion : Slightly better agreement between MOGREPS and EC ENS to break down the block and allow more atlantic mobility by around day 8-9 and EC still supports this breakdown longer into the trend period but still a big spread in degree of cyclonicity in terms of track, depth and orientation of fronts. No major change of story suggested for the 6-10 day period From as early as this weekend a major divergence of weather types is present in the ensembles. The majority of MOGREPS and NCEP members retain the cold block over the UK, with any breakdown only partial and only affecting the far W/SW. EC deterministic, along with about 50 % of the EC ensemble have a full return to Atlantic mobility and much milder conditions by as early as Sunday. Interestingly, the zonal spell may only be temporary with EC deterministic trending colder again by day 10. Clearly a good deal of uncertainty is present in this period and a compromise has been made in allowing a partial breakdown of the block to take place later in the weekend and early into next week. Such a scenario brings a risk of heavy rain to the SW and a risk of sleet and snow along the leading edge..."

Musicman2000

Really got to laugh at some of the posts over on net weather, Its either toys flying out of the pram or pure joy. Great run from the UKMO 12z run, GFS off on one as usual.

dexter647

Wow:eek:..Was not expecting that run from the ukmo but it's really sticking to it's guns...The joys of models watching..

icesnowfrost

We're can I look at these models and how can I learn to read them properly

Wolfe_IRE

icesnowfrost wrote: »

We're can I look at these models and how can I learn to read them properly

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334

blackbird99

icesnowfrost wrote: »

We're can I look at these models and how can I learn to read them properly

there is a sticky in the weather forum on how to read them

Eastcoastryan

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334

Sorry to be OT here but where did Black Briar disappear to? I used to enjoy reading his posts.

Back to the models, yet another swing of the pendulum..
UKMO not backing down (yet!) ECM at 6ish will be interesting!

Villain

Anyone calling beyond Friday is brave, very brave

Musicman2000

Villain wrote: »

Anyone calling beyond Friday is brave, very brave

Have to agree, It could go either way, lets see what the Ecm 12z says, will MT and Met Eireann be right about mild conditions the weekend?

Elmer Blooker

didn't I warn yiz on Saturday when I described the Azores high as "an elephant in the room" - something that just cannot be ignored.
An anticyclone in that general area will inevitably result in a toppler, its only a matter of time.

pad199207

I see the UKMO is still refusing to do away with the blocked pattern... Hon the Brits!!

Just waiting for the big ECM this evening!

Musicman2000

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

didn't I warn yiz on Saturday when I described the Azores high as "an elephant in the room" - something that just cannot be ignored.
An anticyclone in that general area will inevitably result in a toppler, its only a matter of time.

Nothing to do with the azores high its the energy coming from that low pressure off the east coast of the US

Calibos

The North American forecasters basically said that last nights ECM should be binned because they reckoned the Low which caused the domino effect on the ECM forecast was actually going to go west of Greenland Northwards like the UKMO reckons rather than east as the ECM reckoned. Its in their backyard so we should probably trust them. Seeing as last nights Met.ie forecast is based of last nights ECM we should put less stock in that particular forecast by them. If the ECM flips back in a few minutes, so will tonights Met.ie forecast.

Sponge Bob

Calibos wrote: »

The North American forecasters basically said that last nights ECM should be binned because they reckoned the Low which caused the domino effect on the ECM forecast was actually going to go west of Greenland Northwards like the UKMO reckons rather than east as the ECM reckoned.

They would be a touchy lot apropos that very model after Sandy

maquiladora

The Phantom Cold Spell! I've seen so many of these over the past seven years or so that I've lost count. This was always looking dodgy because you cannot rely on charts looking good in FI, ever. The fact that its been constantly watered down as we get further into the reliable timeframe was ominous but the writing has been on the wall for the past day or so now.

Hopefully we will be left with a setup allowing for another chance at a proper cold spell before Christmas.

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

The Phantom Cold Spell! I've seen so many of these over the past seven years or so that I've lost count. This was always looking dodgy because you cannot rely on charts looking good in FI, ever. The fact that its been constantly watered down as we get further into the reliable timeframe was ominous but the writing has been on the wall for the past day or so now.

Hopefully we will be left with a setup allowing for another chance at a proper cold spell before Christmas.

Okay while not every model is in agreement about us about to start a severe cold spell, there is no writing on the wall as of yet? I really dont know how you have come to the conclusion that we should move on now and wait for the next chance of cold, especially with so much uncertainty.

This cold spell is still very much game on and will continue to be unless the UKMO backs down. The ECM has trended towards the UKMO between +72hrs and +120hrs which is as far as is worth looking right now.

For the record if the UKMO is correct the east is in for a fair chance of snow over the next week as it shows uppers getting progressively colder from -6/-7 at just +72hrs...

My advice in times of great uncertainty such as this- STICK WITH THE FAX CHARTS!!!





Dan

Elmer Blooker

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Nothing to do with the azores high its the energy coming from that low pressure off the east coast of the US

a cold spell is not possible with an Azores high unless it links with a greenland high
Canada?

Duggys Housemate

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Okay while not every model is in agreement about us about to start a severe cold spell, there is no writing on the wall as of yet? I really dont know how you have come to the conclusion that we should move on now and wait for the next chance of cold, especially with so much uncertainty.

This cold spell is still very much game on and will continue to be unless the UKMO backs down. The ECM has trended towards the UKMO between +72hrs and +120hrs which is as far as is worth looking right now.

For the record if the UKMO is correct the east is in for a fair chance of snow over the next week as it shows uppers getting progressively colder from -6/-7 at just +72hrs...

My advice in times of great uncertainty such as this- STICK WITH THE FAX CHARTS!!!





Dan

but met eireann has gone t'other way.

derekon

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

a cold spell is not possible with an Azores high unless it links with a greenland high
Canada?

So I would be correct in saying that if the Azores High stays where it is until next March, all Ireland will get is one mucky mild toppling low after another? i.e. an abundance of mild muck ? :D

D

Larbre34

I've just copped why everyone is in such a mood over the marginal models; they're bi-polar!!! Gettit??!!

maw368

http://willcooperweather.weebly.com/weather-blog.html

What do people think of Will Coopers forecast? While many of you seem so sure we are gona end up with a mild set up, Will Cooper has given a detailed essay regarding his thoughts and he is betting on cold. Is there any basis to his forecast or is it mostly predictions based on FI

Su Campu

maw368 wrote: »

http://willcooperweather.weebly.com/weather-blog.html

What do people think of Will Coopers forecast? While many of you seem so sure we are gona end up with a mild set up, Will Cooper has given a detailed essay regarding his thoughts and he is betting on cold. Is there any basis to his forecast or is it mostly predictions based on FI

He's another chancer. He says they're his thoughts and was active here briefly until I think Mindgame showed that all of his "thoughts" were actually just copied and pasted from various sources.

We never heard from him after that post.....

DanRu

GFS has downgraded the Atlantic incursion, slightly. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come. Nice run!!

maquiladora

DanRu wrote: »

GFS has downgraded the Atlantic incursion. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come. Nice run!!

We have rain coming in at 72 hours, then we are getting mild southwesterlies with +4 uppers off the south coast at 132 hours with heavy rain sweeping in. We only get a few brief glimpses of uppers about 1 degree colder than we already have at any time before that. 18Z is horrendous if you're looking for a cold spell in Ireland.

The only good thing you could take from that is that there are still changes from run to run in the medium term, but it's certainly not a change for the better this time.

It's just too hard to get a proper cold spell in Ireland this way without proper blocking.

Su Campu

DanRu wrote: »

GFS has downgraded the Atlantic incursion, slightly. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come. Nice run!!

Nice run for what? Cold rain?

Scotland and NE England will see some action this week, we won't, apart from above 300-400 m

Iancar29

Latest GFS goes more in line with the UKMO in the hi res , the atlantic power train that originally seemed too strong considering upscale jet stream has weakened slightly and has allowed a more westward shift of the cold pool , but nothing considerable.


Saturday night's flow from the NW could bring some snow to high ground in the north but mostly sleety wet mix on lower levels , possible sleet too in the east.



Still possible upgrades/downgrades to come , the changes the last few runs clearly shows models having trouble with the blocking scenario .


Tbh ... though a snow fest may not be showing up , i still love this , rollercoaster of emotions ha .

Dont feel too bad over possible downgrades folks... tuesday afterall is the official FIRST DAY OF WINTER

DanRu

Serves me right for posting before the end of the run!!

TheMilkyPirate

As long as the arctic high is there I'm happy, Early days people.