Ade's LoCo Betting Log

kryogen

Good luck with the log mate, seems to be off to a great start anyway we do have a difference of opinion on the basketball tonight however, since I havent done a bet, and most likely wont, I hope Im wrong and your right

Edit: Scratch that, just read it properly and saw you are gone with the overs and not OKC we can both be right so

Nuri Sahin

Christ almighty, what a game. Durrant is the ****ing man! Overs is in. Not much profit in the grand scheme of things, but it's profit and no back to back losses so far in the log which I'm happy with it.

Bank = 181.16 (+10 inplay)

Have not looked at any bets for later. I'll obviously having something on the the big game in Boston and likewise the ice hockey for sure.

kryogen

Was a brilliant game, the Spurs came out blazing but in the end they didnt have the legs to see it out I feel, shame about Atletico, I had them myself, such a one sided game it wasnt funny but the shooting was worse then what you would see on at any under 11 football match in Sri Lanka

Nuri Sahin

kryogen wrote: »

Was a brilliant game, the Spurs came out blazing but in the end they didnt have the legs to see it out I feel, shame about Atletico, I had them myself, such a one sided game it wasnt funny but the shooting was worse then what you would see on at any under 11 football match in Sri Lanka

Aye, I just felt youth and athleticism would be the difference last night and it was. Spurs were on the wane for me in the last 2 games after half time. They put up a hell of a front though and for me Parker came out of nowhere shooting what he did earlier on in the game, he ran riot till OKC altered their gameplan. I was actually heavily considering Parker to shoot under 20.0 @ 5/6 last night! As he had been awful points wise never shooting above that in the series. Looked great value when I was planning last night.

Really is a shame about Mineiro because their home form and Bahia's away form is so contrasting! I read you're post in the footy thread and half followed the game on Twitter. Just one of those games much like Randers the other day it seems. Will be leaving Brazil's leagues on ice I think for a little bit. Just let things settle down and form patterns develop, maybe the odd bet in play outside of the log if anything. Only think unders/overs is worth touching atm with that league.

Nuri Sahin

Ah you gotta love these do or die scenarios.. unless it's you're team Tonight, we have two of these lined up. I'll start with the basketball.

It's all or nothing for Miami and that pressure that was on them in the previous game has intensified big time as they travel to Boston needing the win. Exact same situation as played out in the Western Conference Playoff, Miami had a 2-0 series lead and have thrown it away. Neither team is particularly shooting all too well, but Boston are grinding out victories with Rondo, Pierce and Allen coming up trumps at various times and then there is Garnett who steps up to the plate all so regularly for the Celtics. The Garden will be bouncing tonight too, can't rule out the home crowd as another factor for the home win.

Bosh will be back, presumably starting too so it'll be interesting to see how he gets on. He could be a difference maker tonight along with Le Bron having a monster game also. But can he turn their poor away form around tonight, who knows. I'm doubtful, and I'm doubtful over his fitness too. That plus Miami's record in The Garden is something shocking - 13 of the last 14 games in Boston they've lost!

The match odds make for interesting reading but just looking at the lines for a moment, it has crossed 4 times (Overs) on the bounce now. I wanna pull the trigger... but something just telling me not to. Gut instinct and that jazz. Part of me thinks the urgency will be massive with Heat and hopefully the natural momentum and Celtics replicate it. But I just feel it'll be a slower, more methodical gameplay from Boston and as said above, Miami's shooting as been less than desired.

So for that I'm looking at the spread and outright win. With the latter, as I eluded to. It's kinda strange IMO, seems casual fans are going off of name alone and backing Miami despite all the reasons why I've explained above. While it's do or die time for Miami and the focus is on them, Boston will want to wrap this up and on home court, if they don't.... Miami is the play for Game 7. Hopefully it'll be done and dusted tonight though. So what to do.. Boston at the lovely odds of 59/50 or Boston to cover the spread, +2 @ 10/11?

It's the latter for me.

Boston Celtics +2 @ 10/11, stake is 31.16 euro

MyStubbleItches

Congratulations on the excellent success thus far.

What platform do you use to make your bets? Haven't seen the range of markets you have on either PP or Boylesports.

Leeg17

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

What platform do you use to make your bets? Haven't seen the range of markets you have on either PP or Boylesports.

I've been able to follow all of them on PP, I know Ade uses Bet365 too.

MyStubbleItches

Leeg17 wrote: »

I've been able to follow all of them on PP, I know Ade uses Bet365 too.

Must look harder.

I use my PP account solely for my own log and have been thinking of closing my Boyles ac anyway so might have a look at 365 instead. Looks like this log could be well worth following.

Nuri Sahin

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

Congratulations on the excellent success thus far.

What platform do you use to make your bets? Haven't seen the range of markets you have on either PP or Boylesports.

Thanks.

Paddypower, Boyles and Bet 365 I use in the main. I seldom use anything else, though I was a regular of Betfair but that was sometime ago. Tbh, I just haven't felt the need to which bookies I'm using except for the golf bets really, just always been like that really. Force of habit I guess at this stage. I'll try and mention which bookies if wanted.

I use PP and B365 more than I use Boyles I should point out. Boyles is handy for the golf namely at times.

Nuri Sahin

Leeg17 wrote: »

I've been able to follow all of them on PP, I know Ade uses Bet365 too.

I don't know this person ^^^^

Stalker.

Nuri Sahin

So I'm on Bet 365 Live Help atm. Thanks HS. Deleted the posts for the time being, hopefully they'll cancel.

kryogen

?????

Nuri Sahin

-Ade- wrote: »

Ah you gotta love these do or die scenarios.. unless it's you're team Tonight, we have two of these lined up. I'll start with the basketball.

It's all or nothing for Miami and that pressure that was on them in the previous game has intensified big time as they travel to Boston needing the win. Exact same situation as played out in the Western Conference Playoff, Miami had a 2-0 series lead and have thrown it away. Neither team is particularly shooting all too well, but Boston are grinding out victories with Rondo, Pierce and Allen coming up trumps at various times and then there is Garnett who steps up to the plate all so regularly for the Celtics. The Garden will be bouncing tonight too, can't rule out the home crowd as another factor for the home win.

Bosh will be back, presumably starting too so it'll be interesting to see how he gets on. He could be a difference maker tonight along with Le Bron having a monster game also. But can he turn their poor away form around tonight, who knows. I'm doubtful, and I'm doubtful over his fitness too. That plus Miami's record in The Garden is something shocking - 13 of the last 14 games in Boston they've lost!

The match odds make for interesting reading but just looking at the lines for a moment, it has crossed 4 times (Overs) on the bounce now. I wanna pull the trigger... but something just telling me not to. Gut instinct and that jazz. Part of me thinks the urgency will be massive with Heat and hopefully the natural momentum and Celtics replicate it. But I just feel it'll be a slower, more methodical gameplay from Boston and as said above, Miami's shooting as been less than desired.

So for that I'm looking at the spread and outright win. With the latter, as I eluded to. It's kinda strange IMO, seems casual fans are going off of name alone and backing Miami despite all the reasons why I've explained above. While it's do or die time for Miami and the focus is on them, Boston will want to wrap this up and on home court, if they don't.... Miami is the play for Game 7. Hopefully it'll be done and dusted tonight though. So what to do.. Boston at the lovely odds of 59/50 or Boston to cover the spread, +2 @ 10/11?

It's the latter for me.

Boston Celtics +2 @ 10/11, stake is 31.16 euro

Added 20 quid more, so stake is 51.16. Tip off in 5 mins.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 130

Boston were poor, Miami were alright... but Lebron was magnificent. One of his best performances of his career. First loss in this year's playoffs which I'm gutted about. Not much else can be said besides that.

_____

Japan Win to Nil @ 4/5, 30 euro

Odds have dropped since last night. Tis an old favourite, etc.

Nuri Sahin

Bouncebackability is strong.

Bank = 150 euros

___

I'm thinking over the two bets for today's opening games in Euro 2012. One I've settled on, the other I'm just reassessing my options. Should be up in a few moments time.

Nuri Sahin

Poland vs Greece -

Poland are favourites for this game but if they win it, they'll just edge I think with Lewandowski as the match winner. Wincast is tempting and outside of the log I'm considering it amongst other bets I'll mention briefly in a moment.

Poland have won their last match by 4 goals to nil but that was against Andorra so you have to take that with a pinch of salt. The 4 matches before that win ended it ended under 2.5 goals. The last 3 matches for Greece ended in under 2.5 goals. The last 4 H2H matches between this 2 nations also ended under 2.5 goals.

See where I'm going with this?

The thing with Unders is the odds. It's 2/5 across the board bar the odd bookie here or there. Is it worth a single is the real question. I don't see value for it in single without lumping on it which I'm not going to be doing in the opening game of a tournament. That'd be madness. If chucking it in a double, treble, accumulator, etc, etc, etc. that is something I'd look at for anyone else if you're not confident about the result.

So for that reason, I'm gonna back the home nation @ 11/10, with a 25 euro stake. Let's hope momentum takes them to victory, on paper I favour Poland if it wasn't already clear.

As for other bets for others to maybe consider....
Win to Nil, Poland to Win and 1 or 2 goals in the match, Poland DNB, Under 2.5 and even Under 1.5 are all appealing bets really. Lewandowski Anytime, First Goal Scorer and Wincast are the goalscorer picks for this one if people are considering that market.

The Russia - Czech write up is far smaller, so only should be a few mins to do up.

Nuri Sahin

Russia vs Czech Republic

I think Russia will be the other team to get of this group with Poland. Better squad for my monies worth.

Looking at the Czechs very quickly, Cech has looked back to his best at times last season especially towards the end of it. Kadlec is decent, and the back and was actually their top goalscorer in qualifying. It might be worth having a sneaky punt on in him scoring if it's worth you're fancy, Anytime today @ 7/1. Finally there's Rosicky who like Cech we all know about. I'm a tad biased when it comes to the lad admittedly but he's a fantastic footballer and looked to be finally showing his Dortmund form in the 2nd half of last season for Arsenal, and is capable of magic moments. Baros will lead the line and youth isn't on his side, as is no Koller nor the wonder Nedved. I think goals will be hard to come by for them but not because of their style of play like the Greeks.

Russia just have more quality all over the pitch, the center backs aside. The team itself is basically a mix of CSKA Moscow and Zenit. Kerzhakov is a good goalscorer for club and has an alright record for country too. Arshavin despite falling off the wagon with Arsenal, like Rosicky can still produce moments of magic for them. The gem of the team is Dzagoev, he's a talent no question about it just a tad inconsistent and can drift in and out of games a bit too much for my liking. He's 21 now, still very young but the stage is set for him to produce. Shirokov is another one to look out for, and he's capable of scoring. Love the full backs, Zhirkov and Anyukov will bomb from their postions to support the attack and overlap midfield, especially Zhirkov. The center of midfield isn't glamorous but it's industrious and will do a job.

So for me, based on overall quality. It's Russia @ 5/4, 25 euro stake

__


So overall nothing fancy today, straight up wins with it being the opening day of the tournament. Good luck to all.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 156.25

Should be happy, and I'm in profit for the day but I'd be lying if I'd said I was pleased. Poland left a sour taste in the mouth, after saying Unders was the play and then going for the win instead. I suppose at least I bounced back again with the Russians which is something so I'll clutch to that today despite winning 2 out of 3 bets.

________

Just a quick one on the WC2014 Qualifiers now that's taking place in the early hours of today.

Mexico vs Guyana catches the eye. David vs Goliath stuff here, and I'll be looking at the handicap betting for this one. Worth Googling the match if you're unsure on this as I'm not going too much into this one.

Mexico -3 @ 4/6, 26.25 euro stake
Mexico -4 @ 7/5, 10 euro stake

USA are in action later too but I'll probably bet on that in play outside of the log as the US have been a bit iffy in recent times especially against those that pack the defence.

Nuri Sahin

Ah, that feeling of going to bed pissed off and waking up pissed off.
I still can't believe that result and thought I was playing it safe by not looking at the US! Will total at the end of the day instead of the usual format for now, partly because that red writing will grate on me. Hey, I'm honest Anywhoo, we move on.

Group B kicks off today. So we'll look at the Holland v Denmark game first.

Holland v Denmark

Both will be looking for the win, a slip up for the former the pressure will be on though. Denmark I think would settle for the point but they won't set up for a point as that's a dangerous game to play at this level. Holland are a far superior squad and I don't need to get into them on a player to player level. The majority will know their players. They were ruthless efficient in qualifying for the Euros, in winning all but one of their games. That one they weren't playing for much while the team they were up against, Sweden, were.

Denmark less so. Star player is Eriksen from Ajax, very exciting talent and potentially could be something very special. But lately, he's a been a bit off the boil form wise. Still very capable of doing something. Those who know me personally, know of my feelings for Bendtner. To put it bluntly, I do not rate him. At the back, they have Danny Agger who is a wonderful CB and Kjær from Roma who isn't too bad. I'm not his biggest fan but with Agger it's a decent partnership But besides them two and Eriksen, I don't expect much from them. Their No.1 GK, Stoke's Sorensen will not feature as he will miss the tourney due to injury.

I expect Holland to win this and win this fairly comfortably. Huge ramifications if they don't considering the other 2 teams in their group are capable of. I'd probably recommend looking at -1 and Win to Nil as well.

But for me, Holland @ 4/6 is cracking value.

Holland @ 4/6, 40 euro stake

Nuri Sahin

That was sickening. Anyone who follows the footy betting forum saw I had an outside bet on Van Bommel 1st to be booked which came in and covered some losses but that obviously doesn't count for the log. First time I've had back to back losses in awhile (2 month I think) too My confidence has been hit somewhat, I'm not gonna lie.

For that, I'm not touching the basketball tonight . Just want to chillax with a few friends, a few beers and see a good game. I expect Heat will win as I said post-Game 6.

Considering going all in on Spain tomorrow. I'll decide sometime tomorrow.

eh i dunno

-Ade- wrote: »

That was sickening. Anyone who follows the footy betting forum saw I had an outside bet on Van Bommel 1st to be booked which came in and covered some losses but that obviously doesn't count for the log. First time I've had back to back losses in awhile (2 month I think) too My confidence has been hit somewhat, I'm not gonna lie.

For that, I'm not touching the basketball tonight . Just want to chillax with a few friends, a few beers and see a good game. I expect Heat will win as I said post-Game 6.

Considering going all in on Spain tomorrow. I'll decide sometime tomorrow.

Didn't expect Spain to be such a good price. 10/11 is a great bet. 1-0 or 2-0 i reckon. Good luck with the log

Headshot

the way the euro's are going id wait for the 2nd round

kryogen

The only bet I will be doing on the Spain game tomorrow is something with the free bet on bet365, same as the United v City bet, do a bet up to 50 pre game and they give you a free bet to the same value in play

-Ade-

-Ade- wrote: »

That was sickening. Anyone who follows the footy betting forum saw I had an outside bet on Van Bommel 1st to be booked which came in and covered some losses but that obviously doesn't count for the log. First time I've had back to back losses in awhile (2 month I think) too My confidence has been hit somewhat, I'm not gonna lie.

......

I had a very decent lash on Holland (not on account of your log anything), they battered them really, just one of those matches.
Your log is flying so I wouldn't be getting despondent if I was you

Wftablueboy

Don't lose the head just yet Ade , going all in on Spain is not such a wise move at the minute..., Tonite ill be concentrating on the golf , the leaderboard is like the M50 at 6 o'clock on a Friday there's that many wedged together , Harrington and Jacobson are sitting pretty 3 shots behind and are well worth a shot at 40/1+ , keep the faith !!

Nuri Sahin

Cheers lads, yeah I won't be doing that anyway. It was just seeing Germany and Argentina go on to win (delighted for the former) was a bit of a downer betting wise (I know, I know what I said about enjoying the game and not betting on Germany). Overs coming in in the basketball just added to the misery lol. Was tipped by my cousin, the one who's insane in the membrane with all things NBA, NHL and betting. Previous Game 7's were Unders this season though, so that was my doubt there, result wasn't in doubt as I said before. No value last night on Miami @ 2/9 unless in play or the spread which the bookies called right initially. But yeah, it's just the football that's a bit of a bitch to bet on. Be nice to have an opening round of games that went off relatively smoothly in my lifetime, not had that in the Euros, Copa nor World Cup anyway :pac:

Part of me wished I had a breakaway log for the basketball and ice hockey though. One to note for next season heh

@ Kyro, thanks for that. Will look into it now.

Nuri Sahin

There's a few bets I adore. Boca Win to Nil and/or 0-0, Japan Win to Nil or Win and 1 or 2 goals, Paraguay Win to Nil and/or 0-0, etc, etc. Consistent bets, my go to bets if you will. Spain Win to Nil is one of them. But I'll play it a tad safer.

Following Kyro's comment above, stuck 50 on it. With the 50 in play free bet.

Spain @ 5/6, 50 euros

Nuri Sahin

All in on BATE Win to Nil @ Evens , they've been brilliant for these so far this season.

Not entirely sure what to do, if this goes tits up especially with the basketball playoff finals beginning in the early hours. I might do a seperate footy log to a general sports one later if this crashes and burns. Opinions on this would be appreciated.

slookie

-Ade- wrote: »

All in on BATE Win to Nil @ Evens , they've been brilliant for these so far this season.

Not entirely sure what to do, if this goes tits up especially with the basketball playoff finals beginning in the early hours. I might do a seperate footy log to a general sports one later if this crashes and burns. Opinions on this would be appreciated.

Is that BATE Borisov?

Nuri Sahin

slookie wrote: »

Is that BATE Borisov?

Yes sir, that is.