Ade's LoCo Betting Log

Nuri Sahin

So a few people over the years have suggested I do this, and tbh I just thought it was a bit time consuming at times. But with the uni chapter of my life officially over, I'll give this a shot for the summer at least!

Gonna keep it very simple. I've kept aside 50 euro for this and will use that to turn into into 1000.... hopefully. It will be somewhat seperate from my regular betting.


There'll be no aftertiming done whatsoever in this thread and I'll do my best with write ups or if asked, will provide reasoning.

10 euro = small stake
25 euro = medium stake
50-100 euro = large stake

Bets will consist mainly of football and golf. I'll occasionally dabble in tennis (grand slams), ice hockey (the remaining games of the playoff finals), UFC (sorry Lee), basketball (like ice hockey), F1 and *drumroll*, wrestling betting. Yes wrestling (PPV's) I have done very well since Paddy Power provided markets back in April in the wrasslin'. Long may that continue!


So with that said, I'll get started. God I'm so gonna regret this lol.

Nuri Sahin

2 x 10 euro stakes on Bray @ Evens and Sligo @ 3/4.

It's like I want to **** this up :pac:

Nuri Sahin

Well money back as a result of Bray winning and Sligo being morons at least. Some consolation in seeing Shamrock Rovers proving why they are so, so blacklisted for me.

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Going to leave the friendlies aside for today (unless something noteworthy comes up), though I do have my eye on Japan tomororw. Those in the footy tips thread are probably aware of a reliable bet of mine with them. I'm admittedly a tad tempted by Unders in the Portugal game though I will just say that. But for today, I'm going to stick with the Segunda Liga.

In particular I'm looking at the Recreativo vs Cartagena game


Recreativo need the points. They along with a few other teams are just a point ahead of the relegation places. Their home form isn't fantastic it must be noted, just the one win since March! They are up against Cartagena who have nothing left to play for after being relegated and truly awful away from home. Something has to give here and Recreativo will surely pick up 3 points confirming their survival in the Segunda, right? You'd think I'm going for the home win, and but I'm not as I think it's very much a chance I'm not willing to take.

It's 2nd Half Most Goals @ Evens, 15 euro stake that I've gone for.

Going by the book, everything points to it if looking at the goal patterns of their games especially home vs away records.

Recreativo Win, Win and 1 or 2 goals in the match, Under 2.5 goals and Recreativo to Win the 2nd half I also considered.

Adolf Hipster

Will be keeping an eye on this, best of luck Ade!

Nuri Sahin

Adolf Hipster wrote: »

Will be keeping an eye on this, best of luck Ade!

Cheers man. Shocked by that result in Spain though!

CriticEyes

Hey Ade. Best of luck with the new thread.

Any advice/tips on the Argentina game tonight and the basketball Spurs V's Thunder? Cheers

Nuri Sahin

CriticEyes wrote: »

Hey Ade. Best of luck with the new thread.

Any advice/tips on the Argentina game tonight and the basketball Spurs V's Thunder? Cheers

Thanks.

Argentina should win by a couple of goals I reckon. Formidable home record scoring a lot of goals, while Ecuador are quite patchy on the road and that's being kind probably. I'd be surprised with them coming out of Argentina with anything other than defeat anyway.

Didn't watch game 3 but saw the highlights and that Spurs were poor scoring. Shouldn't be the case again tonight. Not looked at any odds yet, but fancy Overs to come in comfortably.

Nuri Sahin

-Ade- wrote: »

Thanks.

Argentina should win by a couple of goals I reckon. Formidable home record scoring a lot of goals, while Ecuador are quite patchy on the road and that's being kind probably. I'd be surprised with them coming out of Argentina with anything other than defeat anyway.

Didn't watch game 3 but saw the highlights and that Spurs were poor scoring. Shouldn't be the case again tonight. Not looked at any odds yet, but fancy Overs to come in comfortably.

Hopefully someone took note, Argies won comfortably and Overs came in handily enough in that crazy game 4. Shame I placed overs outside of the log.

Nuri Sahin

Bank - 35

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Japan Win to Nil @ 4/5 , 20 euro stake

As said before, those who follow the footy betting thread will be aware that I'm very fond of this bet as it's been very good to me. Too tired to explain why, just note home and away form as with a lot of my bets it'll make sense

Nuri Sahin

Bank - 51

Handy enough win for Japan, finished 3-0 in the end.

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Deportivo @ 6/5, 21 euro staked.

Far superior side who'll be promoted back to La Liga next season, and will want to finish the season in style today.. hopefully. Been a great bet throughout the year.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 76.20

Left it somewhat late but came good in the end did Depor. 121 euros (21 from the log) in total on them so well chuffed with that.

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Going for Spain Win to Nil @ 4/6 coming up in less than 20 mins time, stake is 30.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 96.20


Errr, never a doubt that one <_< >_> :pac:

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Go with the flow (great tune ) and follow the home team streak for this one was the plan orginally. Celtics are imperious at home winning 12 of the last 13. Heat aren't the best away on the road also. But I'm going for Overs as I find Game 5 too hard to call. Overs has hit the mark in the last two games between the two. Small stake for me, 15 euro on Over 179 @ 10/11. Just looking to hit the 100 mark here. Nothing more.

Nuri Sahin

I got myself tied in knots last night, thanks to Leeface and because I was too lazy to check! >_>

Bank = 109.84

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34.84 (added a bit extra) on Osters @ 10/11 later on 6pm. Been good to me the past month or so, so will keep the faith.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 141.51

Another one bites the dust. Some grub needed, then gonna be looking ahead to Game 5 tonight in the basketball.

CriticEyes

Looking at the game tonight. And one that stands out to me is SA Spurs over 103.5 pts @ 5/6. Going by stats from just the playoffs Spurs have covered this at home 5 out of 6 times. Scores being:

Spurs 106 - Utah 91
Spurs 114 - Utah 83

Spurs 108 - Clippers 92
Spurs 105 - Clippers 88

Spurs 101 - Thunder 98
Spurs 120 - Thunder 111

They covered it all but once which they came very close to the 104 needed by getting 101. Seems good to me. Looking forward to seeing your look at the game.

Nuri Sahin

CriticEyes wrote: »

Looking at the game tonight. And one that stands out to me is SA Spurs over 103.5 pts @ 5/6. Going by stats from just the playoffs Spurs have covered this at home 5 out of 6 times. Scores being:

Spurs 106 - Utah 91
Spurs 114 - Utah 83

Spurs 108 - Clippers 92
Spurs 105 - Clippers 88

Spurs 101 - Thunder 98
Spurs 120 - Thunder 111

They covered it all but once which they came very close to the 104 needed by getting 101. Seems good to me. Looking forward to seeing your look at the game.

Looks solid man. I probably won't have a write up/bets up for another hour incase you're waiting. Wracking my brain over one or two things here. I'll also be including an ice hockey bet too. Thankfully both tip offs are a late one cause I'm quite undecided on the basketball tonight.

Nuri Sahin

I had quite a lengthy write up mostly complete ... and then Chrome crashed on me

Cutting a long story short, I'll start off the with the ice hockey.

I fancy the LA Kings to win Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final on home ice. But with Unders as I feel it's the safe bet. The previous 2 games went unders with offence having not much impact on the game. Admittedly I only watched Game 1 myself, but going from friends in the US and Canada have said, this is the play for many of them with LA Kings. Unfortunately many bookies on this side of the pond do not for some reason, offer Win and Under/Over odds which is very frustrating. So my main bet tonight will be two singles.

LA Kings Win @ 20/31, 20 euro stake
Unders 5.0 @ 10/21, 20 euro stake

Onto the basketball, this has had me questioning myself many a time since the afternoon and for that reason and that reason alone, I'm only having a small stake on tonight's game.

If there is one team in the playoffs who are going to beat the home trend, it is Oklahoma. Was tempted with them bucking the trend tonight and going for the win @ 2/1 but instead I'll just have a wee bet on them to cover the spread tonight @ 10/11. I just feel OKC defence are finding their feet more and more as we hit the latter stages of this tie and that it will be very closely fought.

OKC + 5 @ 10/11, 11.51 stake

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On a side note, just want to say that my stakes will gradually go up. if I'm honest I'm still a tad cautious regarding the log what it being my first. As said in my OP, I do have bigger sums on these very bets myself more often than not. But I'm not going to chance this this betting log, and throw it down the ****ter at this early stage

Leeg17

Praise to the Dark Knight, we're not worthy!

CriticEyes

CriticEyes wrote: »

Looking at the game tonight. And one that stands out to me is SA Spurs over 103.5 pts @ 5/6. Going by stats from just the playoffs Spurs have covered this at home 5 out of 6 times. Scores being:

Spurs 106 - Utah 91
Spurs 114 - Utah 83

Spurs 108 - Clippers 92
Spurs 105 - Clippers 88

Spurs 101 - Thunder 98
Spurs 120 - Thunder 111

They covered it all but once which they came very close to the 104 needed by getting 101. Seems good to me. Looking forward to seeing your look at the game.

Well i am sick!!

Congrats on your win. Cheers

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 174.39

Full house! 3 lovely wins, though I'm a tad annoyed for wussing out of OKC win @ 2/1 but it was tight in the end. Spurs made a game of it in that final quarter.
Made just under a ton outside of the log anyway so I shouldn't be complaining all too much.

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Only the one bet for now. No write up, I'm tired (still) and so truthfully, I'm not really in the mood to do one anyway.

Randers @ Evens, 25 euro stake
(Danish 1st Division for those unsure)

stingerro

It should be an interesting ride. Not worried about you not being profitable, just hoping you will continue to find some time to run a log. Good luck!

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 149.39

Watched the 2nd half here and there, missed chance after chance. Couple of open goals too. What can you say about that? Was like watching Liverpool this past season to an extent! :pac: I think I'll be blacklisting the Danish leagues anyway, by that, I mean PL and 1st Division as that's the one's I bet on occasionally. Much like the LOI. It's a bit wonky to say the least. Randers today was last chance saloon for that countries leagues.

Will be back on the basketball later, so tips should be up I'd say sometime after midnight I'd hazard a guess. Tip off is 1.30am. Might throw up golf tips later too, definitely be up by tomorrow anyway. Probably have a few bets spread out on the European and PGA Tour.

Headshot

Hey hacker any bets for tonight?

Nuri Sahin

Back in South Beach for Game 5, and this worries me. Why? The refs. A lot of controversy surrounding the refs so far in the series, namely in Miami. They are homers no doubt and have given some very strange calls. I think the bookmakers have this spot on with the spread at - 7.5 / +7.5 though and it's a coin toss. Sure Heat can bounce back tonight, but at the pressure is on them and who knows which Le Bron, Wade and co. will show up. Bosh returns tonight for Miami though, but I'm not sure of his fitness and I've heard he won't start. I was hoping they'd risk him tbh.

Going to back Boston to cover the spread @ 5/6, hopefully Rondo and Allen get going once again.. and Miami choke.. somewhat to help cover the spread at least :P

Boston +7.5 @ 5/6, stake is 29.39

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 173.88

That is how we rebound! Awesome performance from the Celtics. Miami are choking, 3 loss on the bounce after winning the opening 2 games! That 3 pointer from Pierce with less than a minute on the clock had me on my feet, was confident they'd hold out and they did

Nuri Sahin

Sorry about the delay, an hour window of sunshine has to be taken advantage of.


Anywhoo, not placing a single football bet today I've decided. If asked, and I stress a bit of caution with it as it's Seria B afterall. Sampdoria at home in the 1st leg of the playoff did catch my eye initially. Perhaps Both Teams to Score or Overs in the Cordoba - Valladolid game too in the Segunda Liga playoff. Not suggesting to bet on these but worth looking at.

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On to the golf. A brief summary of how I bet in this. I factor in multiple things. So it's that I pull a name out my arse for this. Conditions (type of grass and general weather, overall player form and course form (past tourneys on that course come into play for me. I occasionally throw in the odd old favourite bet, for example Davis Love III in the Majors. But for the most part bets are researched. For the log, bets will be a 1/3 - 1/5 I usually put on also

Oh and a word of caution, if anyone does follow these bets. Those who know me know my PGA Tour vs European Tour ever since I started gambling back in 2005 is very contrasting, and more often than not I favour the golf in the US for my betting. But I'll have one bet this week anyway in Europe anyway.

Now on this week in a moment, I'll just stress the US Open, golf's 2nd Major is on next week so I'm taking stock this week for that.

We're in New Orelans for the St. Jude's Classic this week where there is a somewhat decent field with one real notable name featuring and that's McIlroy. It's a tight course, accuracy of the tee is premium and that's what my bets are based on.

Zach Johnson @ 10/1, stake 5 euro (Boyles)
I honestly never thought I'd back Johnson any lower than 20/1. But here we are. Johnson has been in very solid form this season with a number of finishes in the top 10 including winning last week at Colonial CC(accuracy again is essential there). What was common denominator with all those displays? Besides obviously being on the US Tour! Bermuda grass. The guy can read those difficult Bermuda greens better than most of the field. He's an very accurate driver of the ball and was hitting striking some lovely irons from the golf I watched over the weekend. 10/1 is short, but I fancy my chances with him.

David Toms @ 20/1, stake 5 euro (Paddypower)
His odds have drifted in from 25/1 in the last 24-48 hours, so people are taking notice of him for this week and rightly so IMO. His game is very much along the same lines as Zach Johnson above. The thing with Toms that sets him apart though is this is a near hometown event for him. He's played here every year for the past 16 years so you know he'll know the course well as can be seen by his record in this area with 2 wins at this event(!) and one in another tourney in New Orleans nearly a decade ago. He also has a far few top 5 places on top of that. While it's only June, the Ryder Cup isn't far away too and that's extra incentive as he needs some good performances to outright qualify for the team. Currently in 30th. He is also a big fan of Bermuda greens as well.

daviddunne1992

you have a great chance if the predictor is right

Nuri Sahin

daviddunne1992 wrote: »

you have a great chance if the predictor is right

These two are widely tipped by many of the big golf tipsters and I'd have to agree with them. 2 very solid picks, unlike Rory or DJ.. IMO. One my mainstays, Laird was tempting too but he's been a bit inconsistent at times and that's off putting especially on a course like this week.

Mr. Manager

Good read Ade.

Keep 'er lit!

daviddunne1992

-Ade- wrote: »

These two are widely tipped by many of the big golf tipsters and I'd have to agree with them. 2 very solid picks, unlike Rory or DJ.. IMO. One my mainstays, Laird was tempting too but he's been a bit inconsistent at times and that's off putting especially on a course like this week.

I might have to follow you on Toms when you put it like that

Nuri Sahin

Game 6, and it's do or die time for Spurs in Oklahoma tonight and who thought we'd be here at this stage after Game 2 heh! Hell, less than a week ago the San Antonio were riding a 20 game win streak.

It is so difficult to beat the same team four games in a row, especially at this level and at this time of the playoffs.. but I believe this Spurs ageing side are done for. Defence has looked so lethargic for them and OKC's youth will kill this I feel. Will they cover the spread at -5 is the big question here. Not sure.

Instead, the bet I like tonight and has been a constant so far in this series, it's Overs. It's now 7-3 in favour to the Overs in the last 10 matches between the two. Why buck the trend? There's no reason for me to do so. I expect 202.5 to up more by tip off tonight. So probably best be quick with the one.

Over 202.5 @ 10/11, 30 euro stake
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Going from basketball to football for a brief comment, I love the look of Atletico Mineiro (it's on tomorrow ) and it's them I'm gonna throw in a small double with OKC.


Atletico Mineiro and OKC @ tad over evens (think it's 44/41, maths was never my strongest subject ), 10 euro stake returns 20.72 anyway