Ade's LoCo Betting Log

Nuri Sahin

So a few people over the years have suggested I do this, and tbh I just thought it was a bit time consuming at times. But with the uni chapter of my life officially over, I'll give this a shot for the summer at least!

Gonna keep it very simple. I've kept aside 50 euro for this and will use that to turn into into 1000.... hopefully. It will be somewhat seperate from my regular betting.


There'll be no aftertiming done whatsoever in this thread and I'll do my best with write ups or if asked, will provide reasoning.

10 euro = small stake
25 euro = medium stake
50-100 euro = large stake

Bets will consist mainly of football and golf. I'll occasionally dabble in tennis (grand slams), ice hockey (the remaining games of the playoff finals), UFC (sorry Lee), basketball (like ice hockey), F1 and *drumroll*, wrestling betting. Yes wrestling (PPV's) I have done very well since Paddy Power provided markets back in April in the wrasslin'. Long may that continue!


So with that said, I'll get started. God I'm so gonna regret this lol.

Nuri Sahin

2 x 10 euro stakes on Bray @ Evens and Sligo @ 3/4.

It's like I want to **** this up :pac:

Nuri Sahin

Well money back as a result of Bray winning and Sligo being morons at least. Some consolation in seeing Shamrock Rovers proving why they are so, so blacklisted for me.

_______________

Going to leave the friendlies aside for today (unless something noteworthy comes up), though I do have my eye on Japan tomororw. Those in the footy tips thread are probably aware of a reliable bet of mine with them. I'm admittedly a tad tempted by Unders in the Portugal game though I will just say that. But for today, I'm going to stick with the Segunda Liga.

In particular I'm looking at the Recreativo vs Cartagena game


Recreativo need the points. They along with a few other teams are just a point ahead of the relegation places. Their home form isn't fantastic it must be noted, just the one win since March! They are up against Cartagena who have nothing left to play for after being relegated and truly awful away from home. Something has to give here and Recreativo will surely pick up 3 points confirming their survival in the Segunda, right? You'd think I'm going for the home win, and but I'm not as I think it's very much a chance I'm not willing to take.

It's 2nd Half Most Goals @ Evens, 15 euro stake that I've gone for.

Going by the book, everything points to it if looking at the goal patterns of their games especially home vs away records.

Recreativo Win, Win and 1 or 2 goals in the match, Under 2.5 goals and Recreativo to Win the 2nd half I also considered.

Adolf Hipster

Will be keeping an eye on this, best of luck Ade!

Nuri Sahin

Adolf Hipster wrote: »

Will be keeping an eye on this, best of luck Ade!

Cheers man. Shocked by that result in Spain though!

CriticEyes

Hey Ade. Best of luck with the new thread.

Any advice/tips on the Argentina game tonight and the basketball Spurs V's Thunder? Cheers

Nuri Sahin

CriticEyes wrote: »

Hey Ade. Best of luck with the new thread.

Any advice/tips on the Argentina game tonight and the basketball Spurs V's Thunder? Cheers

Thanks.

Argentina should win by a couple of goals I reckon. Formidable home record scoring a lot of goals, while Ecuador are quite patchy on the road and that's being kind probably. I'd be surprised with them coming out of Argentina with anything other than defeat anyway.

Didn't watch game 3 but saw the highlights and that Spurs were poor scoring. Shouldn't be the case again tonight. Not looked at any odds yet, but fancy Overs to come in comfortably.

Nuri Sahin

-Ade- wrote: »

Thanks.

Argentina should win by a couple of goals I reckon. Formidable home record scoring a lot of goals, while Ecuador are quite patchy on the road and that's being kind probably. I'd be surprised with them coming out of Argentina with anything other than defeat anyway.

Didn't watch game 3 but saw the highlights and that Spurs were poor scoring. Shouldn't be the case again tonight. Not looked at any odds yet, but fancy Overs to come in comfortably.

Hopefully someone took note, Argies won comfortably and Overs came in handily enough in that crazy game 4. Shame I placed overs outside of the log.

Nuri Sahin

Bank - 35

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Japan Win to Nil @ 4/5 , 20 euro stake

As said before, those who follow the footy betting thread will be aware that I'm very fond of this bet as it's been very good to me. Too tired to explain why, just note home and away form as with a lot of my bets it'll make sense

Nuri Sahin

Bank - 51

Handy enough win for Japan, finished 3-0 in the end.

____

Deportivo @ 6/5, 21 euro staked.

Far superior side who'll be promoted back to La Liga next season, and will want to finish the season in style today.. hopefully. Been a great bet throughout the year.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 76.20

Left it somewhat late but came good in the end did Depor. 121 euros (21 from the log) in total on them so well chuffed with that.

__________

Going for Spain Win to Nil @ 4/6 coming up in less than 20 mins time, stake is 30.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 96.20


Errr, never a doubt that one <_< >_> :pac:

_____

Go with the flow (great tune ) and follow the home team streak for this one was the plan orginally. Celtics are imperious at home winning 12 of the last 13. Heat aren't the best away on the road also. But I'm going for Overs as I find Game 5 too hard to call. Overs has hit the mark in the last two games between the two. Small stake for me, 15 euro on Over 179 @ 10/11. Just looking to hit the 100 mark here. Nothing more.

Nuri Sahin

I got myself tied in knots last night, thanks to Leeface and because I was too lazy to check! >_>

Bank = 109.84

___

34.84 (added a bit extra) on Osters @ 10/11 later on 6pm. Been good to me the past month or so, so will keep the faith.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 141.51

Another one bites the dust. Some grub needed, then gonna be looking ahead to Game 5 tonight in the basketball.

CriticEyes

Looking at the game tonight. And one that stands out to me is SA Spurs over 103.5 pts @ 5/6. Going by stats from just the playoffs Spurs have covered this at home 5 out of 6 times. Scores being:

Spurs 106 - Utah 91
Spurs 114 - Utah 83

Spurs 108 - Clippers 92
Spurs 105 - Clippers 88

Spurs 101 - Thunder 98
Spurs 120 - Thunder 111

They covered it all but once which they came very close to the 104 needed by getting 101. Seems good to me. Looking forward to seeing your look at the game.

Nuri Sahin

CriticEyes wrote: »

Looking at the game tonight. And one that stands out to me is SA Spurs over 103.5 pts @ 5/6. Going by stats from just the playoffs Spurs have covered this at home 5 out of 6 times. Scores being:

Spurs 106 - Utah 91
Spurs 114 - Utah 83

Spurs 108 - Clippers 92
Spurs 105 - Clippers 88

Spurs 101 - Thunder 98
Spurs 120 - Thunder 111

They covered it all but once which they came very close to the 104 needed by getting 101. Seems good to me. Looking forward to seeing your look at the game.

Looks solid man. I probably won't have a write up/bets up for another hour incase you're waiting. Wracking my brain over one or two things here. I'll also be including an ice hockey bet too. Thankfully both tip offs are a late one cause I'm quite undecided on the basketball tonight.

Nuri Sahin

I had quite a lengthy write up mostly complete ... and then Chrome crashed on me

Cutting a long story short, I'll start off the with the ice hockey.

I fancy the LA Kings to win Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final on home ice. But with Unders as I feel it's the safe bet. The previous 2 games went unders with offence having not much impact on the game. Admittedly I only watched Game 1 myself, but going from friends in the US and Canada have said, this is the play for many of them with LA Kings. Unfortunately many bookies on this side of the pond do not for some reason, offer Win and Under/Over odds which is very frustrating. So my main bet tonight will be two singles.

LA Kings Win @ 20/31, 20 euro stake
Unders 5.0 @ 10/21, 20 euro stake

Onto the basketball, this has had me questioning myself many a time since the afternoon and for that reason and that reason alone, I'm only having a small stake on tonight's game.

If there is one team in the playoffs who are going to beat the home trend, it is Oklahoma. Was tempted with them bucking the trend tonight and going for the win @ 2/1 but instead I'll just have a wee bet on them to cover the spread tonight @ 10/11. I just feel OKC defence are finding their feet more and more as we hit the latter stages of this tie and that it will be very closely fought.

OKC + 5 @ 10/11, 11.51 stake

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On a side note, just want to say that my stakes will gradually go up. if I'm honest I'm still a tad cautious regarding the log what it being my first. As said in my OP, I do have bigger sums on these very bets myself more often than not. But I'm not going to chance this this betting log, and throw it down the ****ter at this early stage

Leeg17

Praise to the Dark Knight, we're not worthy!

CriticEyes

CriticEyes wrote: »

Looking at the game tonight. And one that stands out to me is SA Spurs over 103.5 pts @ 5/6. Going by stats from just the playoffs Spurs have covered this at home 5 out of 6 times. Scores being:

Spurs 106 - Utah 91
Spurs 114 - Utah 83

Spurs 108 - Clippers 92
Spurs 105 - Clippers 88

Spurs 101 - Thunder 98
Spurs 120 - Thunder 111

They covered it all but once which they came very close to the 104 needed by getting 101. Seems good to me. Looking forward to seeing your look at the game.

Well i am sick!!

Congrats on your win. Cheers

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 174.39

Full house! 3 lovely wins, though I'm a tad annoyed for wussing out of OKC win @ 2/1 but it was tight in the end. Spurs made a game of it in that final quarter.
Made just under a ton outside of the log anyway so I shouldn't be complaining all too much.

__________

Only the one bet for now. No write up, I'm tired (still) and so truthfully, I'm not really in the mood to do one anyway.

Randers @ Evens, 25 euro stake
(Danish 1st Division for those unsure)

stingerro

It should be an interesting ride. Not worried about you not being profitable, just hoping you will continue to find some time to run a log. Good luck!

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 149.39

Watched the 2nd half here and there, missed chance after chance. Couple of open goals too. What can you say about that? Was like watching Liverpool this past season to an extent! :pac: I think I'll be blacklisting the Danish leagues anyway, by that, I mean PL and 1st Division as that's the one's I bet on occasionally. Much like the LOI. It's a bit wonky to say the least. Randers today was last chance saloon for that countries leagues.

Will be back on the basketball later, so tips should be up I'd say sometime after midnight I'd hazard a guess. Tip off is 1.30am. Might throw up golf tips later too, definitely be up by tomorrow anyway. Probably have a few bets spread out on the European and PGA Tour.

Headshot

Hey hacker any bets for tonight?

Nuri Sahin

Back in South Beach for Game 5, and this worries me. Why? The refs. A lot of controversy surrounding the refs so far in the series, namely in Miami. They are homers no doubt and have given some very strange calls. I think the bookmakers have this spot on with the spread at - 7.5 / +7.5 though and it's a coin toss. Sure Heat can bounce back tonight, but at the pressure is on them and who knows which Le Bron, Wade and co. will show up. Bosh returns tonight for Miami though, but I'm not sure of his fitness and I've heard he won't start. I was hoping they'd risk him tbh.

Going to back Boston to cover the spread @ 5/6, hopefully Rondo and Allen get going once again.. and Miami choke.. somewhat to help cover the spread at least :P

Boston +7.5 @ 5/6, stake is 29.39

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 173.88

That is how we rebound! Awesome performance from the Celtics. Miami are choking, 3 loss on the bounce after winning the opening 2 games! That 3 pointer from Pierce with less than a minute on the clock had me on my feet, was confident they'd hold out and they did

Nuri Sahin

Sorry about the delay, an hour window of sunshine has to be taken advantage of.


Anywhoo, not placing a single football bet today I've decided. If asked, and I stress a bit of caution with it as it's Seria B afterall. Sampdoria at home in the 1st leg of the playoff did catch my eye initially. Perhaps Both Teams to Score or Overs in the Cordoba - Valladolid game too in the Segunda Liga playoff. Not suggesting to bet on these but worth looking at.

__

On to the golf. A brief summary of how I bet in this. I factor in multiple things. So it's that I pull a name out my arse for this. Conditions (type of grass and general weather, overall player form and course form (past tourneys on that course come into play for me. I occasionally throw in the odd old favourite bet, for example Davis Love III in the Majors. But for the most part bets are researched. For the log, bets will be a 1/3 - 1/5 I usually put on also

Oh and a word of caution, if anyone does follow these bets. Those who know me know my PGA Tour vs European Tour ever since I started gambling back in 2005 is very contrasting, and more often than not I favour the golf in the US for my betting. But I'll have one bet this week anyway in Europe anyway.

Now on this week in a moment, I'll just stress the US Open, golf's 2nd Major is on next week so I'm taking stock this week for that.

We're in New Orelans for the St. Jude's Classic this week where there is a somewhat decent field with one real notable name featuring and that's McIlroy. It's a tight course, accuracy of the tee is premium and that's what my bets are based on.

Zach Johnson @ 10/1, stake 5 euro (Boyles)
I honestly never thought I'd back Johnson any lower than 20/1. But here we are. Johnson has been in very solid form this season with a number of finishes in the top 10 including winning last week at Colonial CC(accuracy again is essential there). What was common denominator with all those displays? Besides obviously being on the US Tour! Bermuda grass. The guy can read those difficult Bermuda greens better than most of the field. He's an very accurate driver of the ball and was hitting striking some lovely irons from the golf I watched over the weekend. 10/1 is short, but I fancy my chances with him.

David Toms @ 20/1, stake 5 euro (Paddypower)
His odds have drifted in from 25/1 in the last 24-48 hours, so people are taking notice of him for this week and rightly so IMO. His game is very much along the same lines as Zach Johnson above. The thing with Toms that sets him apart though is this is a near hometown event for him. He's played here every year for the past 16 years so you know he'll know the course well as can be seen by his record in this area with 2 wins at this event(!) and one in another tourney in New Orleans nearly a decade ago. He also has a far few top 5 places on top of that. While it's only June, the Ryder Cup isn't far away too and that's extra incentive as he needs some good performances to outright qualify for the team. Currently in 30th. He is also a big fan of Bermuda greens as well.

daviddunne1992

you have a great chance if the predictor is right

Nuri Sahin

daviddunne1992 wrote: »

you have a great chance if the predictor is right

These two are widely tipped by many of the big golf tipsters and I'd have to agree with them. 2 very solid picks, unlike Rory or DJ.. IMO. One my mainstays, Laird was tempting too but he's been a bit inconsistent at times and that's off putting especially on a course like this week.

Mr. Manager

Good read Ade.

Keep 'er lit!

daviddunne1992

-Ade- wrote: »

These two are widely tipped by many of the big golf tipsters and I'd have to agree with them. 2 very solid picks, unlike Rory or DJ.. IMO. One my mainstays, Laird was tempting too but he's been a bit inconsistent at times and that's off putting especially on a course like this week.

I might have to follow you on Toms when you put it like that

Nuri Sahin

Game 6, and it's do or die time for Spurs in Oklahoma tonight and who thought we'd be here at this stage after Game 2 heh! Hell, less than a week ago the San Antonio were riding a 20 game win streak.

It is so difficult to beat the same team four games in a row, especially at this level and at this time of the playoffs.. but I believe this Spurs ageing side are done for. Defence has looked so lethargic for them and OKC's youth will kill this I feel. Will they cover the spread at -5 is the big question here. Not sure.

Instead, the bet I like tonight and has been a constant so far in this series, it's Overs. It's now 7-3 in favour to the Overs in the last 10 matches between the two. Why buck the trend? There's no reason for me to do so. I expect 202.5 to up more by tip off tonight. So probably best be quick with the one.

Over 202.5 @ 10/11, 30 euro stake
___


Going from basketball to football for a brief comment, I love the look of Atletico Mineiro (it's on tomorrow ) and it's them I'm gonna throw in a small double with OKC.


Atletico Mineiro and OKC @ tad over evens (think it's 44/41, maths was never my strongest subject ), 10 euro stake returns 20.72 anyway

kryogen

Good luck with the log mate, seems to be off to a great start anyway we do have a difference of opinion on the basketball tonight however, since I havent done a bet, and most likely wont, I hope Im wrong and your right

Edit: Scratch that, just read it properly and saw you are gone with the overs and not OKC we can both be right so

Nuri Sahin

Christ almighty, what a game. Durrant is the ****ing man! Overs is in. Not much profit in the grand scheme of things, but it's profit and no back to back losses so far in the log which I'm happy with it.

Bank = 181.16 (+10 inplay)

Have not looked at any bets for later. I'll obviously having something on the the big game in Boston and likewise the ice hockey for sure.

kryogen

Was a brilliant game, the Spurs came out blazing but in the end they didnt have the legs to see it out I feel, shame about Atletico, I had them myself, such a one sided game it wasnt funny but the shooting was worse then what you would see on at any under 11 football match in Sri Lanka

Nuri Sahin

kryogen wrote: »

Was a brilliant game, the Spurs came out blazing but in the end they didnt have the legs to see it out I feel, shame about Atletico, I had them myself, such a one sided game it wasnt funny but the shooting was worse then what you would see on at any under 11 football match in Sri Lanka

Aye, I just felt youth and athleticism would be the difference last night and it was. Spurs were on the wane for me in the last 2 games after half time. They put up a hell of a front though and for me Parker came out of nowhere shooting what he did earlier on in the game, he ran riot till OKC altered their gameplan. I was actually heavily considering Parker to shoot under 20.0 @ 5/6 last night! As he had been awful points wise never shooting above that in the series. Looked great value when I was planning last night.

Really is a shame about Mineiro because their home form and Bahia's away form is so contrasting! I read you're post in the footy thread and half followed the game on Twitter. Just one of those games much like Randers the other day it seems. Will be leaving Brazil's leagues on ice I think for a little bit. Just let things settle down and form patterns develop, maybe the odd bet in play outside of the log if anything. Only think unders/overs is worth touching atm with that league.

Nuri Sahin

Ah you gotta love these do or die scenarios.. unless it's you're team Tonight, we have two of these lined up. I'll start with the basketball.

It's all or nothing for Miami and that pressure that was on them in the previous game has intensified big time as they travel to Boston needing the win. Exact same situation as played out in the Western Conference Playoff, Miami had a 2-0 series lead and have thrown it away. Neither team is particularly shooting all too well, but Boston are grinding out victories with Rondo, Pierce and Allen coming up trumps at various times and then there is Garnett who steps up to the plate all so regularly for the Celtics. The Garden will be bouncing tonight too, can't rule out the home crowd as another factor for the home win.

Bosh will be back, presumably starting too so it'll be interesting to see how he gets on. He could be a difference maker tonight along with Le Bron having a monster game also. But can he turn their poor away form around tonight, who knows. I'm doubtful, and I'm doubtful over his fitness too. That plus Miami's record in The Garden is something shocking - 13 of the last 14 games in Boston they've lost!

The match odds make for interesting reading but just looking at the lines for a moment, it has crossed 4 times (Overs) on the bounce now. I wanna pull the trigger... but something just telling me not to. Gut instinct and that jazz. Part of me thinks the urgency will be massive with Heat and hopefully the natural momentum and Celtics replicate it. But I just feel it'll be a slower, more methodical gameplay from Boston and as said above, Miami's shooting as been less than desired.

So for that I'm looking at the spread and outright win. With the latter, as I eluded to. It's kinda strange IMO, seems casual fans are going off of name alone and backing Miami despite all the reasons why I've explained above. While it's do or die time for Miami and the focus is on them, Boston will want to wrap this up and on home court, if they don't.... Miami is the play for Game 7. Hopefully it'll be done and dusted tonight though. So what to do.. Boston at the lovely odds of 59/50 or Boston to cover the spread, +2 @ 10/11?

It's the latter for me.

Boston Celtics +2 @ 10/11, stake is 31.16 euro

MyStubbleItches

Congratulations on the excellent success thus far.

What platform do you use to make your bets? Haven't seen the range of markets you have on either PP or Boylesports.

Leeg17

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

What platform do you use to make your bets? Haven't seen the range of markets you have on either PP or Boylesports.

I've been able to follow all of them on PP, I know Ade uses Bet365 too.

MyStubbleItches

Leeg17 wrote: »

I've been able to follow all of them on PP, I know Ade uses Bet365 too.

Must look harder.

I use my PP account solely for my own log and have been thinking of closing my Boyles ac anyway so might have a look at 365 instead. Looks like this log could be well worth following.

Nuri Sahin

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

Congratulations on the excellent success thus far.

What platform do you use to make your bets? Haven't seen the range of markets you have on either PP or Boylesports.

Thanks.

Paddypower, Boyles and Bet 365 I use in the main. I seldom use anything else, though I was a regular of Betfair but that was sometime ago. Tbh, I just haven't felt the need to which bookies I'm using except for the golf bets really, just always been like that really. Force of habit I guess at this stage. I'll try and mention which bookies if wanted.

I use PP and B365 more than I use Boyles I should point out. Boyles is handy for the golf namely at times.

Nuri Sahin

Leeg17 wrote: »

I've been able to follow all of them on PP, I know Ade uses Bet365 too.

I don't know this person ^^^^

Stalker.

Nuri Sahin

So I'm on Bet 365 Live Help atm. Thanks HS. Deleted the posts for the time being, hopefully they'll cancel.

kryogen

?????

Nuri Sahin

-Ade- wrote: »

Ah you gotta love these do or die scenarios.. unless it's you're team Tonight, we have two of these lined up. I'll start with the basketball.

It's all or nothing for Miami and that pressure that was on them in the previous game has intensified big time as they travel to Boston needing the win. Exact same situation as played out in the Western Conference Playoff, Miami had a 2-0 series lead and have thrown it away. Neither team is particularly shooting all too well, but Boston are grinding out victories with Rondo, Pierce and Allen coming up trumps at various times and then there is Garnett who steps up to the plate all so regularly for the Celtics. The Garden will be bouncing tonight too, can't rule out the home crowd as another factor for the home win.

Bosh will be back, presumably starting too so it'll be interesting to see how he gets on. He could be a difference maker tonight along with Le Bron having a monster game also. But can he turn their poor away form around tonight, who knows. I'm doubtful, and I'm doubtful over his fitness too. That plus Miami's record in The Garden is something shocking - 13 of the last 14 games in Boston they've lost!

The match odds make for interesting reading but just looking at the lines for a moment, it has crossed 4 times (Overs) on the bounce now. I wanna pull the trigger... but something just telling me not to. Gut instinct and that jazz. Part of me thinks the urgency will be massive with Heat and hopefully the natural momentum and Celtics replicate it. But I just feel it'll be a slower, more methodical gameplay from Boston and as said above, Miami's shooting as been less than desired.

So for that I'm looking at the spread and outright win. With the latter, as I eluded to. It's kinda strange IMO, seems casual fans are going off of name alone and backing Miami despite all the reasons why I've explained above. While it's do or die time for Miami and the focus is on them, Boston will want to wrap this up and on home court, if they don't.... Miami is the play for Game 7. Hopefully it'll be done and dusted tonight though. So what to do.. Boston at the lovely odds of 59/50 or Boston to cover the spread, +2 @ 10/11?

It's the latter for me.

Boston Celtics +2 @ 10/11, stake is 31.16 euro

Added 20 quid more, so stake is 51.16. Tip off in 5 mins.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 130

Boston were poor, Miami were alright... but Lebron was magnificent. One of his best performances of his career. First loss in this year's playoffs which I'm gutted about. Not much else can be said besides that.

_____

Japan Win to Nil @ 4/5, 30 euro

Odds have dropped since last night. Tis an old favourite, etc.

Nuri Sahin

Bouncebackability is strong.

Bank = 150 euros

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I'm thinking over the two bets for today's opening games in Euro 2012. One I've settled on, the other I'm just reassessing my options. Should be up in a few moments time.

Nuri Sahin

Poland vs Greece -

Poland are favourites for this game but if they win it, they'll just edge I think with Lewandowski as the match winner. Wincast is tempting and outside of the log I'm considering it amongst other bets I'll mention briefly in a moment.

Poland have won their last match by 4 goals to nil but that was against Andorra so you have to take that with a pinch of salt. The 4 matches before that win ended it ended under 2.5 goals. The last 3 matches for Greece ended in under 2.5 goals. The last 4 H2H matches between this 2 nations also ended under 2.5 goals.

See where I'm going with this?

The thing with Unders is the odds. It's 2/5 across the board bar the odd bookie here or there. Is it worth a single is the real question. I don't see value for it in single without lumping on it which I'm not going to be doing in the opening game of a tournament. That'd be madness. If chucking it in a double, treble, accumulator, etc, etc, etc. that is something I'd look at for anyone else if you're not confident about the result.

So for that reason, I'm gonna back the home nation @ 11/10, with a 25 euro stake. Let's hope momentum takes them to victory, on paper I favour Poland if it wasn't already clear.

As for other bets for others to maybe consider....
Win to Nil, Poland to Win and 1 or 2 goals in the match, Poland DNB, Under 2.5 and even Under 1.5 are all appealing bets really. Lewandowski Anytime, First Goal Scorer and Wincast are the goalscorer picks for this one if people are considering that market.

The Russia - Czech write up is far smaller, so only should be a few mins to do up.

Nuri Sahin

Russia vs Czech Republic

I think Russia will be the other team to get of this group with Poland. Better squad for my monies worth.

Looking at the Czechs very quickly, Cech has looked back to his best at times last season especially towards the end of it. Kadlec is decent, and the back and was actually their top goalscorer in qualifying. It might be worth having a sneaky punt on in him scoring if it's worth you're fancy, Anytime today @ 7/1. Finally there's Rosicky who like Cech we all know about. I'm a tad biased when it comes to the lad admittedly but he's a fantastic footballer and looked to be finally showing his Dortmund form in the 2nd half of last season for Arsenal, and is capable of magic moments. Baros will lead the line and youth isn't on his side, as is no Koller nor the wonder Nedved. I think goals will be hard to come by for them but not because of their style of play like the Greeks.

Russia just have more quality all over the pitch, the center backs aside. The team itself is basically a mix of CSKA Moscow and Zenit. Kerzhakov is a good goalscorer for club and has an alright record for country too. Arshavin despite falling off the wagon with Arsenal, like Rosicky can still produce moments of magic for them. The gem of the team is Dzagoev, he's a talent no question about it just a tad inconsistent and can drift in and out of games a bit too much for my liking. He's 21 now, still very young but the stage is set for him to produce. Shirokov is another one to look out for, and he's capable of scoring. Love the full backs, Zhirkov and Anyukov will bomb from their postions to support the attack and overlap midfield, especially Zhirkov. The center of midfield isn't glamorous but it's industrious and will do a job.

So for me, based on overall quality. It's Russia @ 5/4, 25 euro stake

__


So overall nothing fancy today, straight up wins with it being the opening day of the tournament. Good luck to all.

Nuri Sahin

Bank = 156.25

Should be happy, and I'm in profit for the day but I'd be lying if I'd said I was pleased. Poland left a sour taste in the mouth, after saying Unders was the play and then going for the win instead. I suppose at least I bounced back again with the Russians which is something so I'll clutch to that today despite winning 2 out of 3 bets.

________

Just a quick one on the WC2014 Qualifiers now that's taking place in the early hours of today.

Mexico vs Guyana catches the eye. David vs Goliath stuff here, and I'll be looking at the handicap betting for this one. Worth Googling the match if you're unsure on this as I'm not going too much into this one.

Mexico -3 @ 4/6, 26.25 euro stake
Mexico -4 @ 7/5, 10 euro stake

USA are in action later too but I'll probably bet on that in play outside of the log as the US have been a bit iffy in recent times especially against those that pack the defence.

Nuri Sahin

Ah, that feeling of going to bed pissed off and waking up pissed off.
I still can't believe that result and thought I was playing it safe by not looking at the US! Will total at the end of the day instead of the usual format for now, partly because that red writing will grate on me. Hey, I'm honest Anywhoo, we move on.

Group B kicks off today. So we'll look at the Holland v Denmark game first.

Holland v Denmark

Both will be looking for the win, a slip up for the former the pressure will be on though. Denmark I think would settle for the point but they won't set up for a point as that's a dangerous game to play at this level. Holland are a far superior squad and I don't need to get into them on a player to player level. The majority will know their players. They were ruthless efficient in qualifying for the Euros, in winning all but one of their games. That one they weren't playing for much while the team they were up against, Sweden, were.

Denmark less so. Star player is Eriksen from Ajax, very exciting talent and potentially could be something very special. But lately, he's a been a bit off the boil form wise. Still very capable of doing something. Those who know me personally, know of my feelings for Bendtner. To put it bluntly, I do not rate him. At the back, they have Danny Agger who is a wonderful CB and Kjær from Roma who isn't too bad. I'm not his biggest fan but with Agger it's a decent partnership But besides them two and Eriksen, I don't expect much from them. Their No.1 GK, Stoke's Sorensen will not feature as he will miss the tourney due to injury.

I expect Holland to win this and win this fairly comfortably. Huge ramifications if they don't considering the other 2 teams in their group are capable of. I'd probably recommend looking at -1 and Win to Nil as well.

But for me, Holland @ 4/6 is cracking value.

Holland @ 4/6, 40 euro stake

Nuri Sahin

That was sickening. Anyone who follows the footy betting forum saw I had an outside bet on Van Bommel 1st to be booked which came in and covered some losses but that obviously doesn't count for the log. First time I've had back to back losses in awhile (2 month I think) too My confidence has been hit somewhat, I'm not gonna lie.

For that, I'm not touching the basketball tonight . Just want to chillax with a few friends, a few beers and see a good game. I expect Heat will win as I said post-Game 6.

Considering going all in on Spain tomorrow. I'll decide sometime tomorrow.