Gold

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

I will hope that these few shares might have an SP increase of 10% at some stage during 2015, if you could get 10% on your investments wouldn't you be doing grand.
CRH - (€19.5) - ditto

conditioned games wrote: »

CRH are reliant on construction and again in times of deeping depressions construction does not do well.
Basically best advice I could give people is do the opposite of what Cute Hoor says and you will not see your investments wiped out in a stock market crash.

Well there's another one in - up 11% today on the above price, and that is after taking all buying and selling costs into account, and we're only 22 days into 2015.

The last few doing grand as well (except for my edited addition which struggled).

conditioned games wrote: »

I think some might be eating humble pie and if it’s me I’ll put my hand up

???

Tugboats

Well done cute hoor. Bank your profits and buy gold coins. When The world economy collapses in the second half of 2015 you will need them to buy tins of beans in Tescos :-)

conditioned games

Tugboats wrote: »

Well done cute hoor. Bank your profits and buy gold coins. When The world economy collapses in the second half of 2015 you will need them to buy tins of beans in Tescos :-)

The companies he refers to like CRH and Genron corporation are flat since the start of the year. He waits to post an increase in their share price after falling for a few days. He seems to be a strange fellow. While silver miners are up 20% since this year began and i haven't being on here sh*teing on about it looking for attention. Hopefully he'll hold on to them later in the year.

Cute Hoor

On 23/12/2014 I posted

Cute Hoor wrote: »

I will hope that these few shares might have an SP increase of 10% at some stage during 2015, if you could get 10% on your investments wouldn't you be doing grand.
CRH - (€19.5) - ditto
TSCO (£1.84) - not for W&O's given the misinformation the company has been giving out but could be worthwhile. Currency risk as well
GERN ($3.12) - Currency risk here as well.

Since then these shares have risen by the 10%+ I was hoping for, and we aren't too far into the new year. I wasn't being in any way definitive (I find it very difficult to predict the future), just hopeful!


On 30/12/2014 you posted

conditioned games wrote: »

CRH are reliant on construction and again in times of deeping depressions construction does not do well. Tesco will continue to lose market share to cheaper rivals, the quality of their food is very average and the prices charged are always above the market average. The manipulation of their profits will not be the end of bad news for that company. The only thing I know about Genron Corporation is that they are a biotechnology company selling cancer drugs and listed on the Nasdaq.

Also on 30/12/2014 you posted

conditioned games wrote: »

Basically best advice I could give people is do the opposite of what Cute Hoor says and you will not see your investments wiped out in a stock market crash

Now it would appear that not alone has my 'investment' not been wiped out, a number of them have already increased by my hoped for % in 2015. I'm not fully grasping the relevance of 'The companies he refers to like CRH and Genron corporation are flat since the start of the year' - I wasn't trying to predict what the share price would be on any given day, just hoping they'd give me 10% at some stage in 2015.

conditioned games wrote: »

I think some might be eating humble pie and if it’s me I’ll put my hand up but we shall see.

I'll have no problem coming back here in 2020 and admitting you were right when you STATED that gold will be at 12,000 dollars (+904%) and silver will be at 1,200 dollars (+7,400%) . Would you be prepared to put your hands up if wrong about somebody else's prediction/hope??

Value Hunter

Don't forget his blatant creation of 'facts' about Volkswagen's sales to Russia.

Still no acknowledgement that he completely made this up...

Cute Hoor

Value Hunter wrote: »

Don't forget his blatant creation of 'facts' about Volkswagen's sales to Russia.

Still no acknowledgement that he completely made this up...

No and probably won't be, only up 7.5% though since his Russian news release

Roonbox

conditioned games wrote: »

Hopefully he'll hold on to them later in the year.

You cant see into the future the same as everybody else cant see in the future.

I can see you coming a mile away with the facts you are quoting. You have followed Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Jim Sinclair and countless others in that vein.

You need to remember that you box yourself in when you limit yourself to a timeline like 'later in the year' . Your setting yourself up to be wrong.

Your commitment should be "this is what I see happening over the coming years" and you need to be able to change your mind as you go also. Its one of the biggest mistakes in investing.

conditioned games

You said we are 22 days into 2015 so at start of the year and CRH was 24 now it's 24.76 while genron is same price at 3.24 . Also wipeout relates to my estimated time period of market crash. Volkswagen sold 300,000 vechiles in russia in 2013 now its sales there have fallen fast, also in periods of turmoil car sales does badly.

I have no issue boxing myself into timing of a stock market crash. I said between july and october because that is what i believe and cheap oil will make that happen. Shares are good when a market is on the way up but not so when it is in a bubble as the fall is much quicker than the way up.

Roonbox

conditioned games wrote: »

I have no issue boxing myself into timing of a stock market crash. I said between july and october because that is what i believe and cheap oil will make that happen. Shares are good when a market is on the way up but not so when it is in a bubble as the fall is much quicker than the way up.

You could be right, but I have my doubts.

If you are taking positions based on this opinion, make sure you are hedged.

Cute Hoor

conditioned games wrote: »

You said we are 22 days into 2015 so at start of the year and CRH was 24 now it's 24.76 while genron is same price at 3.24 . Also wipeout relates to my estimated time period of market crash. Volkswagen sold 300,000 vechiles in russia in 2013 now its sales there have fallen fast, also in periods of turmoil car sales does badly.

You appear to have difficulty understanding where I am coming from.

I set out to make and pocket 10% (after buy and sell costs) on a number of stocks, based on the prices on 23/12/2014, that was the only date I could use as I cannot predict the future and it would have been pretty pointless using a price previous to 23/12/2014.

You decried each of those picks individually and said that anybody who invested in those shares would lose their investment (not 10% or 20%, the full investment)

One of these shares was Tesco, £1.85 on 23/12, up 14%+ by 8/1/2015, so target met and money made.

Another of those was GERN, $3.12 on 23/12, up 11%+ by 13/1/2015, target met and money made.

Another of those shares was CRH, €19.50 on 23/12, up 11%+ by 22/1/2015, target met and money made.

The price of GERN on 1/1 or today is irrelevant, same for CRH.

You earlier posted that 'Volkswagen has lost its biggest customer Russia recently', you made a couple of attempts to backtrack/sidetrack on that statement when challenged, now a new angle appears with 'its sales have fallen fast', I'm not convinced.

4068ac1elhodqr

Royal Mint to start selling precious metals online to the public for the first time

A 1g gold bar could cost around £40 (today's spot price £27.83/g), while 100g bar is better value at around £2,800.
Though G'Brown had sold off all the gold cheap already?

Mahou

Cute Hoor, well done. You are the best. Keep pocketing.
Happy now?
Some people are happy to invest in gold but not you obviously. We get that.

conditioned games

And i still say those investments will fall hard during the time period i have said. Can you tell me how long in 2015 you will stay in shares.

Cute Hoor

Mahou wrote: »

Cute Hoor, well done. You are the best. Keep pocketing.
Happy now?
Some people are happy to invest in gold but not you obviously. We get that.

Absolutely no problem with anybody investing in gold, might be there sometime myself, and the best of luck to you and anybody invested in whatever they are invested in, we are all just trying to make a few bob.

I just have a problem with definitive statements of what will happen in October or in 2020, impossible to predict never mind definitive statements.

Cute Hoor

conditioned games wrote: »

And i still say those investments will fall hard during the time period i have said. Can you tell me how long in 2015 you will stay in shares.

I will certainly be out by October, will be lying on a beach somewhere with a sleeve of Maple Leafs stuck down my kacks.

conditioned games

Cute Hoor wrote: »

I will certainly be out by October, will be lying on a beach somewhere with a sleeve of Maple Leafs stuck down my kacks.

good man we'll see how it goes

Low Energy Eng

In the same time frame 22/12/14 to today 22/01/15 gold is up over 18% in euro terms.

So I'm presuming you would have been better off investing in it?

I'm happy for you but I think gold is generally a long term investment and insurance.

Personally, I don't think we will see a deflationary collapse. Most Central banks are pumping the system, specially if they sniff another 08. I think the collapse will eventually be inflationary.

Of course, there will be other investment options in the interim

Cute Hoor

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

In the same time frame 22/12/14 to today 22/01/15 gold is up over 18% in euro terms.

So I'm presuming you would have been better off investing in it?

I'm happy for you but I think gold is generally a long term investment and insurance.

Personally, I don't think we will see a deflationary collapse. Most Central banks are pumping the system, specially if they sniff another 08. I think the collapse will eventually be inflationary.

Of course, there will be other investment options in the interim

Depends on when you sold of course, but I wasn't saying that my little pick would outdo Gold or any other asset class, just hoping for a 10% increase and make a few bob. I have another question for you but have to go out now, will be back later.

Cute Hoor

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

In the same time frame 22/12/14 to today 22/01/15 gold is up over 18% in euro terms.

So I'm presuming you would have been better off investing in it?

Yea between 22/12/14 to yesterday's close Gold is up over 17% by my reckoning, of course in that same period one of my picks, Tesco, was up 30%+, allowing for buying and selling costs, so that would be a return that would be pretty hard to beat.

Can I ask a question about the costs associated with buying, holding and selling precious metals.
Gold was at €975.12 on 22/12/14 (as far as I can see), if I had bought Gold on that day what price would I have paid for it (I'm assuming that the trader will take some % or flat rate), how much would the shipping costs be, what would it cost to insure it, what price would I have got if I sold it yesterday (again assume the trader will be making a few bob on the deal) using the closing price of €1,142.81, are there any other charges to factor in. Am I correct in saying that there is no VAT on Gold but there is on Silver, what % is the VAT. Ta.

DarkDusk

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Gold was at €975.12 on 22/12/14 (as far as I can see), if I had bought Gold on that day what price would I have paid for it (I'm assuming that the trader will take some % or flat rate), how much would the shipping costs be, what would it cost to insure it, what price would I have got if I sold it yesterday (again assume the trader will be making a few bob on the deal) using the closing price of €1,142.81, are there any other charges to factor in. Am I correct in saying that there is no VAT on Gold but there is on Silver, what % is the VAT. Ta.

Physical gold/silver has a higher price (the "premium" - especially higher for coins which have higher manufacturing costs) than the spot price advertised on the internet. The spread between these prices rises considerably when there is a shortage of physical on the market (one reason why I advocate physical over paper investing). Physical buying of gold/silver is not suited to people who want to offload in a short period of time, simply buying an ETF would be better for this (you'd have similar costs to buying a normal stock). You shouldn't have to pay more than €30 for a few grand's worth of silver bullion (I am basing this on ordering from Europe - more on this later). There is no VAT on gold but there is on silver in Ireland as it not recognised as an investment asset by the state. Therefore, people choose to buy from abroad (personally I bought from Germany) where there is less VAT (applies to silver not gold).

I don't have time at the moment to look up exact figures for your questions, but as I said before, if you are the type of investor that wants to buy and sell for profit over a short period of time (say, less than a year), then buying an ETF that follows the daily price action of gold/silver would be more suitable. The price of bullion has to move more to make a profit when investing in physical but for me it doesn't apply because I plan to hold for a long period of time, more of insurance than investment.

DarkDusk

I've already said this recently in this thread, the QE-fueled bubble in the US is slowly but surely deflating. Nearly all economic data that has come out of the US the last few months has been very negative. The Atlanta Fed has estimated zero GDP growth for Q1 2015. Huge miss today with the March Non-farm Payrolls and both the January and February figures were revised downwards. After-tax corporate profits declined $57.1 billion (3%) in Q4 2014, the biggest fall since the first quarter of 2011 (despite a rising stock market). First back to back monthly decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013. March Dallas Manufacturing Index dropped 17% the largest drop since 2008. The Chicago PMI is at 6 year lows, what was happening 6 years ago? ISM Manufacturing Index has declined for 5 consecutive months, the first time this has happened since 2008.

The US economy is at it's weakest since the great recession of 2008! After a bust in Q1, most people are expecting a "boom" in Q2. However, without huge spending on Obamacare and businesses investing on inventories where is this growth going to come from? And all this negative data while the US is at 0% interest rates!

Who still believes that rate hikes are coming and not QE4?

For ever odd

DarkDusk wrote: »

I've already said this recently in this thread, the QE-fueled bubble in the US is slowly but surely deflating. Nearly all economic data that has come out of the US the last few months has been very negative. The Atlanta Fed has estimated zero GDP growth for Q1 2015. Huge miss today with the March Non-farm Payrolls and both the January and February figures were revised downwards. After-tax corporate profits declined $57.1 billion (3%) in Q4 2014, the biggest fall since the first quarter of 2011 (despite a rising stock market). First back to back monthly decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013. March Dallas Manufacturing Index dropped 17% the largest drop since 2008. The Chicago PMI is at 6 year lows, what was happening 6 years ago? ISM Manufacturing Index has declined for 5 consecutive months, the first time this has happened since 2008.

The US economy is at it's weakest since the great recession of 2008! After a bust in Q1, most people are expecting a "boom" in Q2. However, without huge spending on Obamacare and businesses investing on inventories where is this growth going to come from? And all this negative data while the US is at 0% interest rates!

Who still believes that rate hikes are coming and not QE4?

The question I would ask myself is, what would happen if
A) The Fed raise interest rates
The Fed don't raise interest rates
C)The Fed introduce more QE
And know what to do in each outcome.

amens

DarkDusk wrote: »

Physical gold/silver has a higher price (the "premium" - especially higher for coins which have higher manufacturing costs) than the spot price advertised on the internet. The spread .........

May I ask those of you that have bought physical gold what product exactly have you bought? I see britannias are excempt from cgt in the uk because they are legal tender. This is widely advertised. I don't see any similar claims for a coin in Ireland though. The vienna philharmonic 1oz has a face value of €100 and so is legal tender in the eurozone. I saw a document on Revenue's site stating that "currency(other than currency in euro) is a chargeable asset" and that "for cgt purposes coins should be regarded as currency only when they are legal tender at the time of acquisition or disposal". Search for 19-01-02 on revenue.ie for document. With that in mind is the philharmonic the coin to buy to avoid cgt when sellling?

worded

Ive heard that there is no VAT on silver in Austria if anyone is going on hols there might be worth buying a few.

Im not certain of this but there is a max you can bring through any customs.

Thanks.

conditioned games

The reason why I buy precious metals is to increase the value of my wealth when currencies lose their value. Today all currencies are linked to the USA dollar which is backed by oil. This has allowed an almost unlimited amount of currency and debt to be created in the world.

Since 2008 the world has been fighting deflation which previously occurred in the 1930's during the great depression. Inflation will defeat deflation and when it does there will be no stopping it. Precious metals have been on sale the past few years due to the big banks and the Us Fed manipulation of the price through paper contracts as part of a perception of a growing economy based on sound fundamentals they have been trying to sell to the people.

Events like Greece are just a side show for now. The manipulation in price won't be broken until there is a stock market crash and a wave of wealth occurs into safe haven assets. Personally I think that time will be late September this year and that will be the beginning of hell for most but for those that are prepared in advance it can bring about new found wealth.

conditioned games

Dow Jones down 530 points yesterday which makes it over 1500 points in the last 4 weeks. Monday could get interesting unless the Fed comes out and hints at more Qe. World trade is falling off a cliff while JP Morgan continue to short precious metals through paper contracts. Worrying times we're entering but not unexpected. By my estimation there should still be 4 weeks left before the debt fueled bond bubbles burst which means another bounce next week is likely.

conditioned games

Another interesting 2 days with Dow down 580 and 205 points to make that 1,900 in the last week. The flight of capital still hasn't figured out where real money and safe haven exists with basket case currencies like the Yen and Euro now doing well. Time to stock up on canned food and other essentials just in case this thing is 4 weeks early.

Cute Hoor

Very interesting (and entertaining) topic to read back over

conditioned games wrote: »

I will put my neck on the block and say there will be major increase in the price of precious metals in October 2015 while at the same time panic will spread throughout the stock markets around the world resulting in massive falls

conditioned games wrote: »

OPEC’s willingness to allow the market to determine oil price will bring forward the market crash from 2016 to late 2015. Expect interest rates in the junk bond market to increase in the next 6 months as high risk energy companies go to the wall. This will be followed by a junk bond collapse just before the stock market as happened in 2008

conditioned games wrote: »

We'll see how good the debt fueled stock bubbles are doing later in the year. Some time between July and October this year I predict you will get a dose of reality.

conditioned games wrote: »

It was through further research last year that I came to the conclusion that the second half of 2015 will see a dramatic fall in the stock markets.

conditioned games wrote: »

I have gone on record when I think the crash will happen which in my opinion will be sometime between July and October. So it will be interesting to see who will be right later on this year. I think some might be eating humble pie and if it’s me I’ll put my hand up but we shall see.

conditioned games wrote: »

I have no issue boxing myself into timing of a stock market crash. I said between july and october because that is what i believe

conditioned games wrote: »

The manipulation in price won't be broken until there is a stock market crash and a wave of wealth occurs into safe haven assets. Personally I think that time will be late September this year and that will be the beginning of hell for most

conditioned games wrote: »

Worrying times we're entering but not unexpected. By my estimation there should still be 4 weeks left before the debt fueled bond bubbles burst

conditioned games wrote: »

Time to stock up on canned food and other essentials just in case this thing is 4 weeks early.

PHEW! The Apocalyptic October has now passed. I have spent the last 4 weeks hiding behind the couch, gorging (not overly of course as I had to ensure that my store lasted for the 30 days) on the stock of tinned Spam built up over the last 6 months. I couldn't bring myself to turn on the puter or watch the telly to familiarise myself with the undoubted unfolding markets disaster.

Then this morning I turn on the puter again, to discover that the definitive October crash hadn't happened, not alone had it not happened but the S&P 500 had RISEN by 8.3% while I was behind the couch, 30 days of Spam wasted that I could have held in storage for the next stock market crash month - tell me now when that will be so I can start restocking in plenty of time. Still it's good to be able to relax (a bit) again

conditioned games wrote: »

So it will be interesting to see who will be right later on this year. I think some might be eating humble pie and if it’s me I’ll put my hand up but we shall see.

???

meangene

condition games? What now?

amens

Anyone predicting the exact timing of a collapse is a fool. The fundamentals of the current system are unsound but it has lasted already far longer than many have predicted. Confidence is lost gradually at first and then rapidly. Unfortunately for most physical gold will not be affordable or available in the rapid phase. So stock up now and wait. What are you going to do instead? Buy overvalued stocks or put money in savings accounts offering low interest? Unlike these gold has no counter party risk.