Gold

dxhound2005

pearcider wrote: »

Gold bugs are usually students of monetary history. I always ask people who don’t understand gold why the US treasury holds 8000 tonnes of it in Fort Knox literally under guard by the oldest and longest established field army (1st Army) in the US... Never get a good answer...Ben Bernanke said it was because of “tradition”. Now if you believe that you’ll believe anything.

US gold is around 8,000 tonnes and around 4580 tonnes of that is in Fort Knox. They have other facilities with significant amounts like West Point and Denver.

But there is even more gold in the vaults under Manhattan, around 5,620 tonnes. Some US gold, but mostly reserves belonging to foreign governments and banks. Only for John McClane the whole lot would have been robbed a few years ago.

CoronaBlocker

*BUMP*

Hi folks, just wondering if anyone has an interesting read on why gold has run into treacle underfoot in the last few weeks. It was a nice jump to over 1700 and appears to have settled in-and-around there for the time being. Anyone willing to take a punt on its direction in the next 6 months?!

How the global economy will settle down and shift in that time is pretty vital, of course. I'm expecting a couple of negative quarters before a slowly/slowly delicate crawl-back and return to form for the markets. Gold to sit frustratingly where it is until everything else has found its feet again. That's probably a generic read - does anyone have a different view?

pearcider

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

*BUMP*

Hi folks, just wondering if anyone has an interesting read on why gold has run into treacle underfoot in the last few weeks. It was a nice jump to over 1700 and appears to have settled in-and-around there for the time being. Anyone willing to take a punt on its direction in the next 6 months?!

How the global economy will settle down and shift in that time is pretty vital, of course. I'm expecting a couple of negative quarters before a slowly/slowly delicate crawl-back and return to form for the markets. Gold to sit frustratingly where it is until everything else has found its feet again. That's probably a generic read - does anyone have a different view?

A few comments.

Gold will be higher 6 months from now. The day to day situation is volatile. We have gone from an extreme con tango situation (the spread was 70USD at one stage) to a backwardation now.

There is a lot of resistance at 1800 and it will take several attempts to break it or a dose of bad news. Regarding the recent drop it’s not significant and it won’t be unless spot gold sustains a close below 1680 otherwise we are still in a raging bull market.

Regarding physical delivery premiums are at all time highs. Try and get a gold coin for less than 100USD above spot. Impossible. The situation is even more extreme in silver market. A lot of bullion dealers are short of supply. Last month, the US imported a record amount of gold from Switzerland.

The central banks are trying to manage a controlled descent into terrain. They need inflation and a good dose of it to try and evaporate the enormous credit bubble they have built since the dot com crash. They will stop at nothing to get it and gold must be revalued upwards in this scenario. This has happened twice in the 20th century once by FDR and once by Nixon. It works very well to get out of a crashed credit bubble and a deflation spiral. So we are going higher as sure as the sun will set in the west.

CoronaBlocker

pearcider wrote: »

A few comments.

Gold will be higher 6 months from now. The day to day situation is volatile. We have gone from an extreme con tango situation (the spread was 70USD at one stage) to a backwardation now.

There is a lot of resistance at 1800 and it will take several attempts to break it or a dose of bad news. Regarding the recent drop it’s not significant and it won’t be unless spot gold sustains a close below 1680 otherwise we are still in a raging bull market.

Regarding physical delivery premiums are at all time highs. Try and get a gold coin for less than 100USD above spot. Impossible. The situation is even more extreme in silver market. A lot of bullion dealers are short of supply. Last month, the US imported a record amount of gold from Switzerland.

The central banks are trying to manage a controlled descent into terrain. They need inflation and a good dose of it to try and evaporate the enormous credit bubble they have built since the dot com crash. They will stop at nothing to get it and gold must be revalued upwards in this scenario. This has happened twice in the 20th century once by FDR and once by Nixon. It works very well to get out of a crashed credit bubble and a deflation spiral. So we are going higher as sure as the sun will set in the west.

That's an interesting read, thank you. I think I know what you mean re central banks requiring inflation.

While I'm not a financier, I've been shifting recently to a portfolio of broad blue-chip assets. I'm about 25% bullion / 25% German luxury auto / 50% America. No air, no food, no pharma are my own rules. I am not worried about a drop-off on the markets while the Covid recession takes hold either as ultimately I'm going long so whatever troughs are explored in the short-term will ultimately get built-upon too.

The key, as always, will be spotting the next peak when it's approaching as it will be slow and steady rise I reckon - but I think it will be - small blips aside - a long and high one too. We'll see.

sheepsh4gger

dxhound2005 wrote: »

US gold is around 8,000 tonnes and around 4580 tonnes of that is in Fort Knox. They have other facilities with significant amounts like West Point and Denver.

But there is even more gold in the vaults under Manhattan, around 5,620 tonnes. Some US gold, but mostly reserves belonging to foreign governments and banks. Only for John McClane the whole lot would have been robbed a few years ago.

>he believes there's gold in Fort Knox


More like tungsten

pearcider

My guess is we will take out 1800 next week. Very strong close on gold this week sitting at 1772.5 ...this would be the highest quarterly close since Q3 2012 if it stays this way until Tuesday.

Noob Investor

pearcider wrote: »

My guess is we will take out 1800 next week.

Agreed - but I still think gold is just warming up!

pearcider

Gold has now broken decisively above 1800. The final resistance is at 1921 which was the previous all time high in USD from 2011. How quickly we reach this is a matter of some uncertainty but I think it could be a matter of a few weeks. Silver may need to break above its significant resistance at 21 USD before gold breaks 1921. Interesting times ahead for the bullion banks.

pearcider

pearcider wrote: »

Gold has now broken decisively above 1800. The final resistance is at 1921 which was the previous all time high in USD from 2011. How quickly we reach this is a matter of some uncertainty but I think it could be a matter of a few weeks. Silver may need to break above its significant resistance at 21 USD before gold breaks 1921. Interesting times ahead for the bullion banks.

Huge break outs in silver and gold today. We could be looking at all time highs in days now rather than weeks.

dxhound2005

The activity on this thread sort of reflects the interest generated by high prices. It started off when prices were very high, and following a major slump there were no posts between May 2017 and March 2020. Hindsight is great, but there is some very good advice early on in the thread about getting into gold. Also some bullish comments like this which proved very wide of the mark.

silver is not a ( currency ? ) in the way some say gold is , its value largely depends on industrial demand , it went along for the ride with gold for a few years there but has since decoupled somewhat , its at $30 at the moment and was close to $ 24 not so long ago , it went to almost $ 50 dollars in may 2011 then collapsed overnight , its a metal which is incredibly maniplulated from a price POV , demand is slowing from an industrial POV and its unlikely to shadow gold in its continual rise to any large degree

i would not be amazed to see gold @ $ 2500 within five years , i would be utterly astounded to see silver @ 75 and surprised to see it past $ 50

gold is a much better bet

(written in Sept 2012 when gold was around 1,800. Within 4 years it was down to 1,000).

It seems to be a very volatile commodity, and nobody knows how high or low it could go in the next few years.

Lex Luthor

if you're trading silver profits would be good to take right now, its now very much over bought, I'd wait for a pull back and retest and get back in then

pearcider

Lex Luthor wrote: »

if you're trading silver profits would be good to take right now, its now very much over bought, I'd wait for a pull back and retest and get back in then

Fair enough if you’re day trading but to be honest I can’t see it pulling back to any meaningful extent. The more stimulus they do the higher gold and silver will go. The only thing that can stop the monetary metals now is for the Fed to raise interest rates and that is off the table until at least 2022.

pearcider

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The activity on this thread sort of reflects the interest generated by high prices. It started off when prices were very high, and following a major slump there were no posts between May 2017 and March 2020. Hindsight is great, but there is some very good advice early on in the thread about getting into gold. Also some bullish comments like this which proved very wide of the mark.

silver is not a ( currency ? ) in the way some say gold is , its value largely depends on industrial demand , it went along for the ride with gold for a few years there but has since decoupled somewhat , its at $30 at the moment and was close to $ 24 not so long ago , it went to almost $ 50 dollars in may 2011 then collapsed overnight , its a metal which is incredibly maniplulated from a price POV , demand is slowing from an industrial POV and its unlikely to shadow gold in its continual rise to any large degree

i would not be amazed to see gold @ $ 2500 within five years , i would be utterly astounded to see silver @ 75 and surprised to see it past $ 50

gold is a much better bet

(written in Sept 2012 when gold was around 1,800. Within 4 years it was down to 1,000).

It seems to be a very volatile commodity, and nobody knows how high or low it could go in the next few years.

The only thing that is similar to 2012 is the gold price. The DXY is 95. In 2012 it was sub 80. We’d already gone through a 4 year recession. This recession is only a few months old. Most importantly the debt to gdp ratio of the US was around 60% now it’s 120% plus. The deficit was 1 trillion now its 4 trillion. Gold clearly has a lot more room to run.

hello2020

whats the easiest n safest way to buy n sell gold ? any online reliable platform where we can buy/sell gold using credit card?

tonysopprano

hello2020 wrote: »

whats the easiest n safest way to buy n sell gold ? any online reliable platform where we can buy/sell gold using credit card?

Revolut card

Lex Luthor

tonysopprano wrote: »

Revolut card

Uphold wallet

An Ri rua

hello2020 wrote: »

whats the easiest n safest way to buy n sell gold ? any online reliable platform where we can buy/sell gold using credit card?

Hi.

I use Bullionvault.com, a UK platform. Second-best would be Goldmoney.com.
Ive just seen that you intend to use a credit card. I'd be very wary of that. I used a loan myself recently to finance a bullion investment in Q1, albeit at 5% and using a highly liquid platform and loan. In other words, I can close out my position quickly if needed.
Using a credit card to buy gold, you're likely not going to see the return to cover the interest rate.
I would hold off, get a small cheap loan that you can afford to pay back, and then buy in a month or two when gold retreats /consolidates. It's not on a one way trajectory to the sky. Not yet anyway.
I'd just be very careful using credit card debt to invest. It's a no-no.

hello2020

An Ri rua wrote: »

Hi.

I use Bullionvault.com, a UK platform. Second-best would be Goldmoney.com.
Ive just seen that you intend to use a credit card. I'd be very wary of that. I used a loan myself recently to finance a bullion investment in Q1, albeit at 5% and using a highly liquid platform and loan. In other words, I can close out my position quickly if needed.
Using a credit card to buy gold, you're likely not going to see the return to cover the interest rate.
I would hold off, get a small cheap loan that you can afford to pay back, and then buy in a month or two when gold retreats /consolidates. It's not on a one way trajectory to the sky. Not yet anyway.
I'd just be very careful using credit card debt to invest. It's a no-no.

thank you Sir for your precious advise

iAcesHigh

An Ri rua wrote: »

Hi.

I use Bullionvault.com, a UK platform. Second-best would be Goldmoney.com.
Ive just seen that you intend to use a credit card. I'd be very wary of that. I used a loan myself recently to finance a bullion investment in Q1, albeit at 5% and using a highly liquid platform and loan. In other words, I can close out my position quickly if needed.
Using a credit card to buy gold, you're likely not going to see the return to cover the interest rate.
I would hold off, get a small cheap loan that you can afford to pay back, and then buy in a month or two when gold retreats /consolidates. It's not on a one way trajectory to the sky. Not yet anyway.
I'd just be very careful using credit card debt to invest. It's a no-no.

Would you order physical gold or would you store it with them? Also, how do you deal with tax?

makeorbrake

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

>he believes there's gold in Fort Knox


More like tungsten

Yup, who knows what's there. Who audits gold reserves? One of the reasons they decided to drop the gold standard was due to the fact that countries couldn't be trusted in terms of what they claimed they were holding in reserve. Then you have the brits recently preventing Venezuela access to their gold (you can think what you like about the politics but when you start going down that road, who really has access to gold reserves??). And a couple of weeks ago, there was the discovery of 83 tonnes of fake gold in China...which was being used as collateral for loans by several banks/financial institutions there.

Gold is proven over generations - no doubt. However, you need to be holding it - not paper IOUs on it.

An Ri rua

iAcesHigh wrote: »

Would you order physical gold or would you store it with them? Also, how do you deal with tax?

It's stored in London, New York or Switzerland. CGT is due on profits according to the rules of CGT.

The poster who doesn't understand allocated gold is sadly misinformed.
Of course, buy physical also, if you can get it on a low enough premium right now and can stomach storage risks.

An Ri rua

makeorbrake wrote: »

Yup, who knows what's there. Who audits gold reserves? One of the reasons they decided to drop the gold standard was due to the fact that countries couldn't be trusted in terms of what they claimed they were holding in reserve. Then you have the brits recently preventing Venezuela access to their gold (you can think what you like about the politics but when you start going down that road, who really has access to gold reserves??). And a couple of weeks ago, there was the discovery of 83 tonnes of fake gold in China...which was being used as collateral for loans by several banks/financial institutions there.

Gold is proven over generations - no doubt. However, you need to be holding it - not paper IOUs on it.

You only need to be holding it if you expect societal collapse. And I'm that case, it's silver ounce coins you'd need. Not gold. I have both.

makeorbrake

An Ri rua wrote: »

You only need to be holding it if you expect societal collapse.

Societal collapse for sure...but also financial system collapse. Beyond that, isn't there exposure to counterparty risk in terms of individual custodians?

An Ri rua wrote: »

And I'm that case, it's silver ounce coins you'd need. Not gold.

You mean in terms of utility in those circumstances?

An Ri rua

makeorbrake wrote: »

Societal collapse for sure...but also financial system collapse. Beyond that, isn't there exposure to counterparty risk in terms of individual custodians?


You mean in terms of utility in those circumstances?

Bullionvault contracts have all of the safeties built in that one would require. Bullionvault is allocated gold, not ETFs, which are quite a risk.

https://www.bullionvault.com/help/FAQs/FAQs_safety.html

Yes, silver is money even moreso than gold.

dxhound2005

makeorbrake wrote: »

Yup, who knows what's there. Who audits gold reserves? One of the reasons they decided to drop the gold standard was due to the fact that countries couldn't be trusted in terms of what they claimed they were holding in reserve.

I never heard of that before. Does it mean that "they" i.e. individual countries who dropped the gold standard, believed that no other country could be trusted to be honest about their reserves? If they were all lying it did not stop the system for working as long as it did anyway.

GalwayMagpie

An Ri rua wrote: »

It's stored in London, New York or Switzerland. CGT is due on profits according to the rules of CGT.

The poster who doesn't understand allocated gold is sadly misinformed.
Of course, buy physical also, if you can get it on a low enough premium right now and can stomach storage risks.

Hi

Thanks for you informative posts. I have a few questions on tax and precious metals.

Is CTG due on all the profits from all Gold/Silver? Is there a tax free allowance?
How is this done, self deceleration ?

How would the revenue know if I've sold some of my metals, do the bullion company send them a notification?

An Ri rua

GalwayMagpie wrote: »

Hi

Thanks for you informative posts. I have a few questions on tax and precious metals.

Is CTG due on all the profits from all Gold/Silver? Is there a tax free allowance?
How is this done, self deceleration ?

How would the revenue know if I've sold some of my metals, do the bullion company send them a notification?

Everyone has an annual CGT exemption of €1270 at time of writing.

Yes trades such as these are reported to Revenue. Just like almost every sector of the financial and real economy. Unless you buy on the secondhand/private market, which is laden with risk if you don't know what you're doing. Even coins can be easily counterfeit, and will be from here as prices rocket.

CGT must be paid based on 2 separate periods, depending on when the gain is realised. To give an example, if your bullion was showing a paper profit, you'd extract no more than 1270 by year end in order to stay CGT free. If the gain or loss is larger than that, and sold between Jan 1 and mid-Nov, you pay in late November. If realised between mid-November and year end, you pay from Jan 1 the following year. These are approximations. Please refer to Revenue.ie. You need to apprise yourself of the tax conditions prevalent when you are realising your gain. Do not just rely on a tax agent as YOU are responsible. Clearly, a gain realised in January and not settled until November that year is a healthy state of cashflow to be in. CGT is a self-declaration and needs to be done correctly to avoid costly follow-ups. But it's easy to do correctly. Just don't spend what's not yours!

GalwayMagpie

Just so i'm clear.

I buy and hold for several years. CTG is due after the disposal occurs. Do I owe anything on on unrealized gains in the intervening years?

amens

GalwayMagpie wrote: »

Just so i'm clear.

I buy and hold for several years. CTG is due after the disposal occurs. Do I owe anything on on unrealized gains in the intervening years?

It isn't a gain until you realize it. The nominal gold price could be less than your purchase price next year and you'd make a loss if you sold then.

B.A._Baracus

Does anyone stack small amounts around here?
Was thinking of getting 1g gold bars here and there each month. Spot price is about 50 euro and they will cost 70/80 depending on where you get them.

I wonder how much value they will go up in a decade or two. Obviously no one can answer that. But could we see a day where a 1g gold goes for 200? Maybe 300?

As you can tell it's early days for me and investing in gold. In the should I / shouldn't I stage.