Gold

euroboom13

After the banking crisis it was a place to preserve wealth but due to all the fear in the market it was way over sold.Now it is returning to a more relieable level.The supply of money has also increased massively so it is hard to predict where its realistic bottom is.

My quess is further falls but with the value of currency changing dailly it is one i would just prefer to watch rather than risk shorting now.Within 30% of bottom is my guess.

I am glad that bullish talk has stopped.

Roonbox

euroboom13 wrote: »

After the banking crisis it was a place to preserve wealth but due to all the fear in the market it was way over sold.Now it is returning to a more relieable level.The supply of money has also increased massively so it is hard to predict where its realistic bottom is.

My quess is further falls but with the value of currency changing dailly it is one i would just prefer to watch rather than risk shorting now.Within 30% of bottom is my guess.

I am glad that bullish talk has stopped.

There is so much wrong with this statement I don't know where to start.

DarkDusk

uberalles wrote: »

Any reason for recent drops?

War
No war
World in recovery?

Is it likely to drop more?

Overnight manipulation, just like last time...

uberalles

DarkDusk wrote: »

Overnight manipulation, just like last time...

Can you explain more?

In your opinion is it a temp blip downwards?

DarkDusk

uberalles wrote: »

Can you explain more?

In your opinion is it a temp blip downwards?

This article should answer many of your questions, the first graph says it all...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42242.html

euroboom13

"There is so much wrong with this statement I don't know where to start. "roonbox



Gold v dollar was at a realistic level 03 to 05 $350
Than it rocketed while the dollars value varried very little.
Now the dollar value has probably decreased (in my est )x3 ,which would put a gold value of about $1000/$1200 .

Goldbugs see $decline as a sign for upward gold price but i say that gold is retreating from its bubble and a realistic meeting point is around $1000

Nothing wrong here!

DarkDusk

euroboom13 wrote: »

Goldbugs see $decline as a sign for upward gold price but i say that gold is retreating from its bubble and a realistic meeting point is around $1000

I think you have to brush up on the defintion of a bubble. The increase in gold price in recent years has not come anywhere close to what we have seen in stocks, property and oil in the past.

Many people think gold has just burst its bubble, but my in my opinion it is just a bear trap, before the actual bubble.

euroboom13

DarkDusk wrote: »

I think you have to brush up on the defintion of a bubble. The increase in gold price in recent years has not come anywhere close to what we have seen in stocks, property and oil in the past.

Many people think gold has just burst its bubble, but my in my opinion it is just a bear trap, before the actual bubble.

No Bubble.
If a house worth 300k in 2003 went to 1.8m in 2012,and then fell to 1.3m in 2013.What would you call that a bear trap,I`d be seriously re-thinking that one.

Gold has had hugh infation since 2003......300 to 1800(x6)?


(We had a massive property bubble here from 1998/2007,we all agree!
where a 3bed semi went from 150K to 420K(not near 900k),and in some instants, greater gains, but i have never seen x6 increase property ,in a time frame of a decade,not even in celtic tiger)

Brush up on bubbles?

zpehtsfd

DarkDusk wrote: »

I think you have to brush up on the defintion of a bubble. The increase in gold price in recent years has not come anywhere close to what we have seen in stocks, property and oil in the past.

$250 an ounce in 2001 to 2011's record high at $1,920.30. That's an 8-fold increase.

Many people think gold has just burst its bubble, but my in my opinion it is just a bear trap, before the actual bubble.

Personally i don't know anyone who thinks otherwise. Back in April, Gold had its largest 2-day loss in over 25 years, in which the Gold ETF traded its highest volume EVER. Also the MACD indicator was below the zero line for the first time since 2000. The chart is in a bearish trend and the long term uptrend is ending. Even a Bank Crisis coupled with WW3 (you wish ) wouldn't change this broken chart.

Roonbox

euroboom13 wrote: »

"There is so much wrong with this statement I don't know where to start. "roonbox



Gold v dollar was at a realistic level 03 to 05 $350
Than it rocketed while the dollars value varried very little.
Now the dollar value has probably decreased (in my est )x3 ,which would put a gold value of about $1000/$1200 .

Goldbugs see $decline as a sign for upward gold price but i say that gold is retreating from its bubble and a realistic meeting point is around $1000

Nothing wrong here!

How did you calculate the 'realistic level' for Gold?

What is 'realistic'?

I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run.

Roonbox

zpehtsfd wrote: »

$250 an ounce in 2001 to 2011's record high at $1,920.30. That's an 8-fold increase.


Personally i don't know anyone who thinks otherwise.

That sentence alone should be ringing alarm bells.

euroboom13

Roonbox wrote: »

How did you calculate the 'realistic level' for Gold?

What is 'realistic'?

I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run.

It is up to every individual investor to work out his own realistic gold value!

I personally feel that gold was stable, at a cash value $300/$400 ,in the years2000/3 and taking into account the increase in cash in circulation now, due to qe and other means ,i feel $1000/$1200 is generous.I may have over estimated this amount of new liquidity ,which would cause for a greater decline in gold price.

If gold hits greater than 1months min wage an ounce ,i personally believe it would be worth spending the summer months panning by a stream.Even at todays prices there appears to be an increase in first time prospecters.

Gold has only got a speculative value and so price bought at ,is the only chance of return!

euroboom13

"I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run."Roonbox

Since gold has only a speculative value ,the trick is to buy at the bottom and not to try and predict a greater high.I love gambling but that aint giving yourself much of a chance.Even if you were trying to spot a price some where below midway, might be worth a punt,but chasing highs is crazy.

euroboom13

Sorry Roonbox,
I have in my own head that you where another max kieser goldbug.I have read some of your old posts and you appear to have bought gold/silver at a very insightful time.I still believe my estimate of a fall to $1000 is coming but if i bought in at around $800 or less i wouldnt be too worried about it eitherway!I also agree that there will be new highs,but i personally wont be chasing them just yet!
Hope you have done well.

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

"I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run."Roonbox

Since gold has only a speculative value ,the trick is to buy at the bottom and not to try and predict a greater high.I love gambling but that aint giving yourself much of a chance.Even if you were trying to spot a price some where below midway, might be worth a punt,but chasing highs is crazy.

the whole world is chasing yield, particularity with the amount of easy credit floating around...

the US cant raise rates or taper without their economy tanking, or if they do taper, and then things tank, they will then untaper the taper

so cash is flowing into the usual 2003-2006 speculative investments

gold is a deemed a safe haven from risk and a currency crisis, look at the amount of physical been bought, the ETF's and derivatives crap all have a massive amount of third party risk.

like anything, the price of it is what someone is willing to pay, it is what it is at the moment.

Should interest rates rise, I'll then consider selling my pm's, until then, I'm happy staying out of dodge, you may consider gold dodge, but i guess that's your opinion

So, i'm hoping I can exchange my pm's for fiat/stocks/property during the next crisis, and lets face it, there will be a crisis at some point in the near future

The good thing about the GFC is that it has put a spotlight on how crooked the financial industry is

zpehtsfd

Roonbox wrote: »

That sentence alone should be ringing alarm bells.

The people i speak to about Gold are commodity experts and market technicians. They've sold out the majority of their positions in the last 6 months or so.

Long term bearish trend is here. Next stop is $1.160. imo.

Thelonious

The fed announces no plans to scale back quantitative easing and gold prices soar 50 dollars in a day. This after the brazen manipulation of the price the other day. You don't have to be a genius to figure out what happened.

uncle_mick

Thelonious wrote: »

The fed announces no plans to scale back quantitative easing and gold prices soar 50 dollars in a day. This after the brazen manipulation of the price the other day. You don't have to be a genius to figure out what happened.

anyone who bought silver earlier today will have a smile on their face going to bed tonite , metals are always a high risk - high reward bet around fed meeting

Value Hunter

As soon as the Fed does start to taper gold will decline significantly.

That's the main reason its dropped this year, and it will continue to drop while QE is winding down

Those betting on gold soaring when QE ends are on the completely wrong trade, QE has caused the massive increase in gold, when it ends gold will suffer.

Just look at today, fed says it hasn't tapered and gold rises 3%

Just look at the QE vs Gold Price chart.

QE tapering/ending will drive down gold. After QE ends will be the time to look at investing in gold

Buy Low Sell High!!!



All the biggest money managers are leaving gold like rats from a sinking ship

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/hedge-funds-cut-gold-bets-as-paulson-s-loss-widens-commodities.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/gold-bulls-cut-wagers-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html

The main reason their selling? QE Ending!

Sell your gold

When QE ends if you's still think the economy is going to tank/ the world end then buy it again at a large discount to its current price.

DarkDusk

Value Hunter wrote: »

As soon as the Fed does start to taper gold will decline significantly.

That's the main reason its dropped this year, and it will continue to drop while QE is winding down

Those betting on gold soaring when QE ends are on the completely wrong trade, QE has caused the massive increase in gold, when it ends gold will suffer.

Just look at today, fed says it hasn't tapered and gold rises 3%

Just look at the QE vs Gold Price chart.

QE tapering/ending will drive down gold. After QE ends will be the time to look at investing in gold

Buy Low Sell High!!!



All the biggest money managers are leaving gold like rats from a sinking ship

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/hedge-funds-cut-gold-bets-as-paulson-s-loss-widens-commodities.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/gold-bulls-cut-wagers-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html

The main reason their selling? QE Ending!

Sell your gold

When QE ends if you's still think the economy is going to tank/ the world end then buy it again at a large discount to its current price.

A problem lies in your theory, the Fed actually can't un-taper because it would totally destroy the economy. The US and countries around the world depend on QE (alone) to keep their economies afloat - take it away and everything comes crashing down.

The inflation from QE also has not leaked into commodities properly yet. Some has leaked into oil recently but when the bond bubble bursts, which will happen when the Fed "try" to un-taper", all of the money will be taken out of bonds and people will seek gold for a safe haven.

To believe that the Fed can un-taper without consequence, and even to sell bonds after un-tapering, is ridiculous. Look how interest rates jumped with taper-talk, that is very bearish for the economy. If the Fed actually took away QE how would the US Gov pay their bills? Imagine how far interest rates would shoot.

People need to understand that QE is not like a drug, but it is a drug. It has short-term diminishing returns and the withdrawal symptoms will be experienced when it is taken away.

DarkDusk

DarkDusk wrote: »

I actually can't wait until September to see what action the Fed will make regarding monetary policy, should be very interesting...

:rolleyes:

Low Energy Eng

Value Hunter wrote: »

As soon as the Fed does start to taper gold will decline significantly.

That's the main reason its dropped this year, and it will continue to drop while QE is winding down

Those betting on gold soaring when QE ends are on the completely wrong trade, QE has caused the massive increase in gold, when it ends gold will suffer.

Just look at today, fed says it hasn't tapered and gold rises 3%

Just look at the QE vs Gold Price chart.

QE tapering/ending will drive down gold. After QE ends will be the time to look at investing in gold

Buy Low Sell High!!!



All the biggest money managers are leaving gold like rats from a sinking ship

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/hedge-funds-cut-gold-bets-as-paulson-s-loss-widens-commodities.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/gold-bulls-cut-wagers-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html

The main reason their selling? QE Ending!

Sell your gold

When QE ends if you's still think the economy is going to tank/ the world end then buy it again at a large discount to its current price.

how many years of QE'n does it take before people realise they can't veer of some form of easing?

euroboom13

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

the whole world is chasing yield, particularity with the amount of easy credit floating around...

the US cant raise rates or taper without their economy tanking, or if they do taper, and then things tank, they will then untaper the taper

so cash is flowing into the usual 2003-2006 speculative investments

gold is a deemed a safe haven from risk and a currency crisis, look at the amount of physical been bought, the ETF's and derivatives crap all have a massive amount of third party risk.

like anything, the price of it is what someone is willing to pay, it is what it is at the moment.

Should interest rates rise, I'll then consider selling my pm's, until then, I'm happy staying out of dodge, you may consider gold dodge, but i guess that's your opinion

So, i'm hoping I can exchange my pm's for fiat/stocks/property during the next crisis, and lets face it, there will be a crisis at some point in the near future

The good thing about the GFC is that it has put a spotlight on how crooked the financial industry is

There is less chance now of a crisis than there was in 2007(my opinion)...2006/7 was the time to chase panic,and now is the time to chase risk ,not safety.

All central banks are trying to make investment/risk more attractive and in the end ,they will succeed!The whole point of these policies is to kill safe havens and drive investment/risk.The central banks were caught out in 2007,they have their eye on the ball and are nowhere near another desaster.They could do some sort of major currency debasement overnight to end qe,which would give good gains to gold but risky investments would also rally.....The plan in my opinion is to incourage an equity driven recovery,and thats what i see happening.

Stay with gold and survive but stay with equities and thrive.

DarkDusk

euroboom13 wrote: »

There is less chance now of a crisis than there was in 2007(my opinion)...2006/7 was the time to chase panic,and now is the time to chase risk ,not safety.

All central banks are trying to make investment/risk more attractive and in the end ,they will succeed!The whole point of these policies is to kill safe havens and drive investment/risk.The central banks were caught out in 2007,they have their eye on the ball and are nowhere near another desaster.They could do some sort of major currency debasement overnight to end qe,which would give good gains to gold but risky investments would also rally.....The plan in my opinion is to incourage an equity driven recovery,and thats what i see happening.

Stay with gold and survive but stay with equities and thrive.

I wouldn't depend on the central banks to do the "right thing"...

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

There is less chance now of a crisis than there was in 2007(my opinion)...2006/7 was the time to chase panic,and now is the time to chase risk ,not safety.

I know what you mean and fair play, you've probably done very well over the past few years, I just think that once the physical has traded hands to the creditor nations then they will walk away from the dollar.

euroboom13 wrote: »

All central banks are trying to make investment/risk more attractive and in the end ,they will succeed!The whole point of these policies is to kill safe havens and drive investment/risk.The central banks were caught out in 2007,they have their eye on the ball and are nowhere near another desaster.

Well yes, that's it, they are forcing people to take risks and speculate, which is likely to end very badly, hence the pumping of bubbles in order to keep the economies afloat.
The central banks were caught out in 2007 which shows how incompetent the government/central banks are, I wouldn't say they have their eye on any ball.

euroboom13 wrote: »

.They could do some sort of major currency debasement overnight to end qe,which would give good gains to gold but risky investments would also rally.....The plan in my opinion is to incourage an equity driven recovery,and thats what i see happening.

How major are we talking here? Risk investments wouldn't rally, anything denominated in USD or related to the USD will crash as people will loose faith in the dollar.

euroboom13 wrote: »

Stay with gold and survive but stay with equities and thrive.

Ye, no I'm not convinced mate.

euroboom13

fdr renewed fiath in the dollar by repricing it, relative to gold ,from $20 to $35 overnight...1933

germany done something similar by introducing a new mark overnight,in the 1920s

This would pay well for gold investments but i cant see something like that going down to well.

What ever the solution is,it will be inflationary.

Mahou

Does anyone see a gold rally if the US debt ceiling issue gets complicated? The chart showing the correlation between the gold price and the increase in the debt limit used to be quite sexy from a gold holders perspective.

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

fdr renewed fiath in the dollar by repricing it, relative to gold ,from $20 to $35 overnight...1933

germany done something similar by introducing a new mark overnight,in the 1920s

This would pay well for gold investments but i cant see something like that going down to well.

What ever the solution is,it will be inflationary.

back then the US was a manufacturing powerhouse, now they import all their goods, it doesn't matter if they devalue by 50%, it just means the debt will stack up twice as fast

euroboom13

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

back then the US was a manufacturing powerhouse, now they import all their goods, it doesn't matter if they devalue by 50%, it just means the debt will stack up twice as fast

apple/microsoft(nokia)/intel/dell/blackberry/fb/twitter/ibm....etc

if obama did risk something like this ,it may be only a short time before levi/general motors/ford/crysler etc become global brands again.Wouldn`t be impossible to compete with over stretched china(their $ credit would half).The tide could turn.To me it is the only solution for an American recovery.When is the question?$2=e1:)$3=e1:D

gordongekko

Gold is now below 1300 its squeaky bum time for some highly indebted miners. Some of them are boarder line profitable at this level.