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The Football Tips Thread v3

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,303 ✭✭✭Lasagna Diarra


    Under 2.5 in Slovakia...Women! vs North Korea women @ 2.10

    If the North Korean women play anything like the men, then it should be a clear under 2.5 game, most of their games go under 2.5 so apparently they do... > http://women.soccerway.com/teams/korea-dpr/korea-dpr/

    Both teams NOT to score in Estonia U21 v Spain U21 @ 1.85 (game's on Thursday)

    I don't really understand why the odds are so high here...


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,090 ✭✭✭✭How Soon Is Now


    Thinking of sticking small bet on Russia and Angola to win tonight.

    The Russia game seems straight forward enough but Angola have not played a match in more then a year and they play a Macadonia team who are fresh from drawing 0-0 with Portugal.

    Any input??


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,262 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    Thinking of sticking small bet on Russia and Angola to win tonight.

    The Russia game seems straight forward enough but Angola have not played a match in more then a year and they play a Macadonia team who are fresh from drawing 0-0 with Portugal.

    Any input??

    Russia might rest some players they had a friendly on Friday i think i'm not sure there's value there. Lineups should be available soon nonetheless


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,090 ✭✭✭✭How Soon Is Now


    manual_man wrote: »
    Russia might rest some players they had a friendly on Friday i think i'm not sure there's value there. Lineups should be available soon nonetheless

    Yep glad didnt touch it neither game had a goal :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,600 ✭✭✭roryc


    You could get 7/1 on Belgium yesterday, I got on for a sneaky £20.

    Belgium need to do well to move up the rankings and ensure they don’t get dropped lower in the seeding for the next Euros, if they beat England this will be a massive boost as England have just moved up to 6th in the World.

    English based Kompany and Vermaelen were rested for the last weekend’s friendly (which was played in Belgium) but I can see them wanting to play against England. Hazard will definitely be playing. Even without their ‘big players’ they drew 2-2 with Montenegro (who drew 2-2 with England in qualifying).

    Still probably worth a punt at 6’s.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    roryc wrote: »
    Belgium need to do well to move up the rankings and ensure they don’t get dropped lower in the seeding for the next Euros

    I don't think friendlies count for UEFA ranking purposes


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭yesno1234


    DB74 wrote: »
    I don't think friendlies count for UEFA ranking purposes

    They do, they are just weighted lower than the other competitive game.


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    yesno1234 wrote: »
    They do, they are just weighted lower than the other competitive game.

    When did this change?

    According to the latest UEFA document on the coefficient that I can find (May 2008) Section 3.1.1 states "Friendly matches do not count"

    http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefa/KeyTopics/69/80/93/698093_DOWNLOAD.pdf


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    They do count, there is a thread in the soccer forum about Irelands ranking improvement.
    Poland and Ukraine would have had no way to improve their ranking in the last 2 years otherwise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    Did a bit more digging on this and FIFA use friendlies in their ranking system while UEFA do not (from what I can gather)

    So the match tonight would have no impact on the rankings for either the EURO 2016 or the WC 2018 as it is the UEFA rankings which determine qualification seedings

    As always, I am open to correction here


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  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    On further digging, FIFA rankings have been used by UEFA to determine seedings for qualification for the last 2 World Cups

    On that basis then the FIFA rankings at at July-2015 will be used to determine seedings for the qualifying groups for the 2018 WC

    Therefore the match tonight will some some impact on Belgium's ranking (& England's obviously), although it will be minimal as a friendly match more than 3 years prior to the draw would have the lowest possible impact on a team's ranking


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,600 ✭✭✭roryc


    Portugal just drew with Macedonia in a friendly and will lose over 10% of their FIFA ranking points because of this. Check the FIFA website rankings calculator.

    30tlxg8.jpg

    Competitive games carry a much higher weighting but don't ignore friendlies. 'Smaller' teams like Belgium can pick up decent points against higher ranked countries like England. Belgium are currently on 604 points, and 44th in the rankings. After their 2-2 draw with Montenegro last week they will actually drop to 590 points as Montenegro are ranked below them (55th). However, a win against England will push them right back up to 620.

    qzf2q0.jpg

    So while it's not a huge jump, they need to try and consolidate points now while all the teams at the Euro's will be picking up a lot of points. More importantly than this though, I think the likes of Kompany and Vermaelen will want to play against their team mates, especially as this will probably be the last time any of them play this Summer.

    Just to note, these are an estimate of points - there are a number of factors involved in the points calculation and I think the tool they have is just a guide.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,262 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    Under 2.5 at evens seems like a decent bet to me


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,126 ✭✭✭rossit


    roryc wrote: »
    Portugal just drew with Macedonia in a friendly and will lose over 10% of their FIFA ranking points because of this. Check the FIFA website rankings calculator.

    30tlxg8.jpg

    Competitive games carry a much higher weighting but don't ignore friendlies. 'Smaller' teams like Belgium can pick up decent points against higher ranked countries like England. Belgium are currently on 604 points, and 44th in the rankings. After their 2-2 draw with Montenegro last week they will actually drop to 590 points as Montenegro are ranked below them (55th). However, a win against England will push them right back up to 620.

    qzf2q0.jpg

    So while it's not a huge jump, they need to try and consolidate points now while all the teams at the Euro's will be picking up a lot of points. More importantly than this though, I think the likes of Kompany and Vermaelen will want to play against their team mates, especially as this will probably be the last time any of them play this Summer.

    Just to note, these are an estimate of points - there are a number of factors involved in the points calculation and I think the tool they have is just a guide.
    i think we have a winner


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    So my point that friendlies don't count for UEFA rankings is correct then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,126 ✭✭✭rossit


    funny guy


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    rossit wrote: »
    funny guy

    Come again?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,600 ✭✭✭roryc


    DB74 wrote: »
    So my point that friendlies don't count for UEFA rankings is correct then?

    If you've checked this out then I'll take your word for it, but as you mention above they count for the next World Cup, even though it is a bit away. The ~30 points they could pick up against England could be the difference in them getting seeded higher for the World Cup, although I think people are concentrating too much on this point...

    I think the players will care more about performing well against their Premier League rivals/team mates, and showing that Belgium are a strong team. They're unbeaten in their last 4 games, drawing with France and beating Romania.

    Hazard will be eager to impress too after his Chelsea move getting confirmed during the week. He's 20's to be first goalscorer with Paddies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    roryc wrote: »
    Hazard will be eager to impress too after his Chelsea move getting confirmed during the week. He's 20's to be first goalscorer with Paddies.

    Great price. He's 20/1 with Bet365 as well and they are unlimited places for the each-way portion

    I generally try to avoid 1st goalscorer bets but I think I'll make an exception here.

    Well spotted


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,600 ✭✭✭roryc


    No problem.

    I just noticed Lampard might be out. I think this makes the case for Hazard even better, I wouldn't fancy Henderson containing him.


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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    Hazard any time @7.5

    Only scored 2 goals in 27 internationals. Both were recent though.
    Against Kazakstan and Montenegro.
    So a goal against England should not be a problem. He likes weak opposition :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭Hamadeusentman


    Spain, Sweden and Holland to score 2 or more treble.
    €30 returns c.€66 with PP.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    Dutch team for tonight:

    fca7098c-ed96-48fb-b33b-84bcc9def040_veldje_opstelling_ned-slo_II.jpg

    And oh.. if you are supersticious...
    Holland played 6 matches on the 30th of may in the past. Only won once :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭Hamadeusentman


    Spain, Sweden and Holland to score 2 or more treble.
    €30 returns c.€66 with PP.
    Come on Eileen!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,090 ✭✭✭✭How Soon Is Now


    Come on Eileen!

    Nice1 !

    Won a little bit on these three matchs meself tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,600 ✭✭✭roryc


    inforfun wrote: »
    Dutch team for tonight:

    fca7098c-ed96-48fb-b33b-84bcc9def040_veldje_opstelling_ned-slo_II.jpg

    And oh.. if you are supersticious...
    Holland played 6 matches on the 30th of may in the past. Only won once :D


    Did Huntelaar get any game time?


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    Surprised not to see a load of boca juniors tips here, why not liking them for this game?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,028 ✭✭✭✭eh i dunno


    Boca, France, Germany treble around 2/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,963 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    roryc wrote: »
    Did Huntelaar get any game time?

    Came on as a sub.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,262 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    3 reasons why Ireland can qualify from group C

    Croatia - Bilic has already announced he's leaving after the Euros - i can imagine the Croat players finding it harder to motivate themselves for a manager who's on his way

    Italy - things couldn't be much worse for the Italians going in to the competition - the latest match fixing scandal couldn't have come at a worse time - they've already lost one player (Criscito), but more worrying for them is the effect this will have on team morale - this is one problem that just refuses to go away. As if to make matters worse, they're friendly v Luxembourg had to be cancelled due to the earthquake in Italy, leaving them short on match practice going in to the competion

    Spain - they could crush all that comes before them - but there's a couple of small things that could work to Ireland's favour - they're missing their most prolific attacker (Villa) and their best defender (Puyol). Another possible cause for concern is fatigue. Their Barca and Real contingent in particular had a gruelling season number of games wise, also their Bilbao players (Llorente, Martinez), and even Mata for Chelsea. It's not something that should be entirely dismissed

    4/1 can still be got on Ireland to qualify, i really, really fancy this. Let's not forget we've progressed to the second round in our last 3 major championships. The underdog tag has always suited us. Anyway somethin to chew on fellas, feel there's some money to be made here ;)


This discussion has been closed.
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