How do you intend to vote in the upcoming EU Fiscal Treaty referendum?

donegal_road

in no way is this a dig at the late Brian Lenihan, its just to illustrate how the Yes campaign was run the second time round, and the blatant lies used to get the No vote overturned. We should learn from our mistakes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sED3iApAvE

Where To

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

So if you don't like the result democracy doesn't work?. You obviously don't have the the first clue about what democracy is. Democracy is respecting a vote, not disregarding it and asking again until people get the ''right answer''.
What would you like democracy to be replaced with?.

Benign Dictatorship is a much better system. In a democracy the people get what they want, not what they need.

Haelium

"HURR DURRR NO NO NO"

Jesus, how many people saying that they will vote no have actually read what the referendum changes?

Very few I would say, but of course it's popular to hate anything related to the EU now.

WindSock

I'm voting for whatever has the snazziest campaign. Throw in a catchy tune and I'll vote twice!

C'mon lets fiscal (a)gain
Like we did last summer
Oh what a bummer
Everybody go and vote
And be a dote
Vote yes and vote no
It'll float your boat

...get your goat

2nd Voice:.....wear a coat

You know how it goes.

Dyr

K-9 wrote: »

Get some perspective. Fiscal and national independence movements really brought disaster on this continent several times, not another recession that are cyclical events anyway, or in Irelands case, pretty much since the existence of the state, barring a few golden bubbles.

National indendance movements you say? Hmm, I seem to remember that empire building and super powers ganging up into blocs via treaties was what arse raped this continent most of the time.

Anyway back to this treaty to bring about further integration, a new bloc if you will..:)

Interesting that you think greece being in recession for five years or us having the IMF called in is part of some natural boom/bust cycle. Here's a chart of our debt history, because charts are always good. Spot anything funny there? Anything that looks distinctly uncyclical?

http://www.theirishstory.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Debt1980-2010-e1295895195882.png

Dyr

hmmm wrote: »

A vote to restrict the gombeen men in the Dail from bankrupting the country again? It's obvious what way we should be voting.

'nother self flagellator so. Fair amount of them around

Mully_2011

Voting No **** em it might just show the Goverment and the EU that where sick of being pushed around where sick of paying for this mess costs by a few reckless lenders where sick of paying back unsecured bonds.

But I'm voting NO as a big **** you to Mr Kenny

Haelium

Mully_2011 wrote: »

Voting No **** em it might just show the Goverment and the EU that where sick of being pushed around where sick of paying for this mess costs by a few reckless lenders where sick of paying back unsecured bonds.

But I'm voting NO as a big **** you to Mr Kenny

The referendum has nothing to do with bonds though. And the EU didn't force Fianna Fail to vote for the bank guarantee.

KINGVictor

Stinicker wrote: »

We are broke and by voting No, we will ensure that we cannot be bailed out again, this is a good thing and not a bad thing. I see Ireland and Greece and the two stroppy teenagers of Europe who keep going to their Rich Daddy in Germany for more funds to fund their extravagant lifestyle. If we Vote no we will kick ourselves out of the house and have to depend on the markets.

We must stand on our own two feet and default on the debts owed to the German and French banks. Germany and France are lending money to countries like Ireland to repay the private debt saw the previous corrupt Government guarantee the debts of the Fianna fraudsters which Irish banks borrowed from German and French banks on "the market".

Basically Ireland should stand up and saw to Merkovy, cancel the debt we have bailed out our banks but we are not bailing out yours too and let Germany and France endure the roasting of their financial house of cards collapsing also.

It is not as clear cut as you make it sound.

Ireland is broke alright but I feel that the current policy of fiscal consolidation and austere measures in an attempt to bring some semblance of normalcy back to the Irish economy is the right decision. It is painful for citizens to bear but truthfully the alternative would be much more accutely painful and potentially could be very disastrous.

It's so easy for pundits and commentators to suggest that the GIIPS default in other to have any chance to grow their economies but none of them have made any credible suggestions/arguments on how Ireland or Greece etc will deal with the short-medium term implications of such an event. Trust me, it will be chaotic and extremely challenging for a default Ireland or Portugal to regain any market confidence in years if that happened.

On the other hand, I have reservations about the practicability of the fiscal compact as proposed by Germany. It can work in Germany, Netherlands, and some scandinavian countries- they have vibrant industrial bases and thriving/well established service sectors. Even with all those, they will struggle to meet the fiscal thresholds stipulated in the pact. Now it would be even more exponentially challenging for countries in the periphery largely due to the economic realities in these countries.

In my opinion, the fiscal pact was rushed and not well thought out, all in attempt to pacify the market pressures on the eurozone. In economic terms, it is simply impossible to trade successfully in the long run if all countries try to maintain a budget surplus; because who will they be selling to if they all try to avoid a deficit on a permanent basis? However, it will be suicidal for Ireland to vote no this referedum because such a vote doesnt stop the process regardless; as a poster rightly pointed out, as long as 12 countries ratify the treaty, then it becomes operational.

A better approach will be to agree to the fiscal compact and renogotiate the sticking points at a later date.

Jimmy Garlic

Where To wrote: »

Benign Dictatorship is a much better system. In a democracy the people get what they want, not what they need.

There is no such thing as benign dictatorship and there isn't a single example of one in history.

K-9

Freddie59 wrote: »

Exactly. Iceland bonds are now classed as investment status, with Irish bonds classed as junk. Proof if ever it was needed.

On the day that Irish ten year bonds fell below the oft quoted 7% barrier, doesn't prove that much:

Ireland Government Bonds 9 Year Note Generic Bid Yield Chart - GIGB9YR - Bloomberg

K-9

Bambi wrote: »

Anyway back to this treaty to bring about further integration, a new bloc if you will..:)

Interesting that you think greece being in recession for five years or us having the IMF called in is part of some natural boom/bust cycle. Here's a chart of our debt history, because charts are always good. Spot anything funny there? Anything that looks distinctly uncyclical?

http://www.theirishstory.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Debt1980-2010-e1295895195882.png

Seriously?

That's just figures, its like saying I earned £50 a week in 1980 and earn €500 now, I must be 10 times better of. Good God of almighty.

%'s is what you need for it to to make any sense.

robindch

Mully_2011 wrote: »

But I'm voting NO as a big **** you to Mr Kenny

An issues voter then, eh?

Dyr

K-9 wrote: »

Seriously?

That's just figures, its like saying I earned £50 a week in 1980 and earn €500 now, I must be 10 times better of. Good God of almighty.

%'s is what you need for it to to make any sense.

Ah roysh, so if we switch to percentages we won't see that massive spike at the end there? The one that's indicating that we went from budget surpluses to being the biggest debtor on the planet in double time? All as part of a normal economic cycle according to you? Suddenly I feel a lot better

cos that is what you're saying, yeah?

Callipo

I spend a lot of time reading up and educating myself on EU politics and politics in general.

I will be voting no as I can see through the scaremongering.

I sort of hope the yes vote wins though because it is embarrassing being made vote twice just to get the Yes vote through.

Probably a third go for this one due to the damage the Lisbon 2 vote did.

Ghost Buster

SafeSurfer wrote: »

How will you vote in the referendum?

Do you mean the first, second or third time we are asked to vote?

Esoteric_

Said no in the last referendum, will say no again this time.

Ghost Buster

mike65 wrote: »

the short version

Yes - money
NO - no money

Indeed. Like "Vote YES for jobs"

LizT

Not too sure of the ins and outs of the referendum so I will have to educate myself a bit more before I decide.

vicwatson

Maybe they'll have the referendum on the rights of children in Ireland on the same day? They've been putting that one off for years and years, the assholes.:mad:

Tora Bora

I'll vote yes, if Phil Hogan, drinks a few pints of water, straight out of my septic tank, and declares it equally as effective at treating sewage as any Dublin city treatment plant.

dvpower

LyndaMcL wrote: »

Said no in the last referendum, will say no again this time.

Is it referenda in general that you dislike?

squod

dvpower wrote: »

We certainly can't afford to live without them. We may not be able to afford to repay them, but we have a reasonable chance of having them restructured, expecially the promissory notes, sometime in the future when the wider European crisis has abated.

It's the ''sometime in the future'' bit that gets me. Trying to gamble away our their' gambling debts.

Those ''promissory notes'' or counterfeit Euros as everyone else is calling them should be dealt with by locking the people responsible for them up.

We're not even attempting to sort out our debts and this will just lead us down a road of penalties which we cannot afford.

recyclebin

How can I vote on something when we don't know yet what we are voting on. I know we have an idea of what the treaty is about but I'm not going to vote yes or no until I see the fine details.

There should be an option for undecided in the poll.

K-9

Bambi wrote: »

Ah roysh, so if we switch to percentages we won't see that massive spike at the end there? The one that's indicating that we went from budget surpluses to being the biggest debtor on the planet in double time? All as part of a normal economic cycle according to you? Suddenly I feel a lot better

cos that is what you're saying, yeah?

Okay, I'll bite. Its a bit Maths for Dummies, never mind Economics for dummies, then again I always say it's unfair to pick on spelling and grammar, I don't get grammar, it doesn't sink in no matter how much I try, Maths does! Some don't get Maths.

Your graph will show a huge spike at the end. What your graph doesn't show is the huge drop in percentage terms from about 85-93 to 2006. We had one of the largest debts levels in the late 80's and early 90's, second lowest in the EU if recall correctly by 2006.

So low that FG, Labour and SF lectured the Government on paying debt off and not "investing" it in the economy!

The key to the change is GDP, the countrys income basically. A quick Google gives the debt to GNP ratio, slightly different but it gives you an idea:

Dáil Éireann - 16/Jun/2010 Written Answers - Departmental Statistics

So in 1980 we had debt of €10 Billion, looks tiny in your graph, right? It's 80% of GNP. By 1987 and the end of FG/Lab it was 117% but only €30 Billion.

By 1995, end of FF Coalitions, €38 Billion, just over 80% as it was in 1980. What happened in those 15 years? GNP rose so the country could treble its debt and still have the same debt level. Its a bit like buying your first house at 30, the mortgage would seem huge, hopefully by the time you are 45, the same figure seems small as your income should have risen substantially.

Now we get to the huge discrepancy. Your graph shows little change from about 1994 to 2006. In reality the debt went from 89% to 23.5%, a tiny level of debt.

So, yep, there's a big spike at the end, its only brought us back to early 80's level of debts.

Where do you get this biggest debtor in the world stuff? Is that the fancy graphs that include the IFSC debt, mostly American and British bank debt, nothing to do with Ireland?

oppenheimer1

gimmebroadband wrote: »

A debt which we are not legally bound to pay, a debt that is not ours. Our Country would be financially better off, if we told the Gamblers to take a hike.

And what about the deficit? I suppose the government can magic up the money to close the gap?

We have a vote but we do not have a choice what way we must vote. We must vote Yes. Otherwise if you think the pain is harsh now - you aint seen nothing yet.

The government wouldn't be able to borrow, so public expenditure would have to be slashed. That means pay for all public servants drastically cut with redundancies, capital spend reduced to an absolute minimum and welfare slashed. Taxes would have to be hiked as well. And people are moaning and whinging about austerity now?

If people want to maintain a decent standard of living it must be a resounding yes vote. Unless of course we would like to destroy the economy completely.

Thats the question we must answer on referendum day.

It is that simple.

Iwasfrozen

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

And what about the deficit? I suppose the government can magic up the money to close the gap?

We have a vote but we do not have a choice what way we must vote. We must vote Yes. Otherwise if you think the pain is harsh now - you aint seen nothing yet.

The government wouldn't be able to borrow, so public expenditure would have to be slashed. That means pay for all public servants drastically cut with redundancies, capital spend reduced to an absolute minimum and welfare slashed. Taxes would have to be hiked as well. And people are moaning and whinging about austerity now?

If people want to maintain a decent standard of living it must be a resounding yes vote. Unless of course we would like to destroy the economy completely.

Thats the question we must answer on referendum day.

It is that simple.

Of they could you know, not pay the debt?

K-9

Bababa wrote: »

A smell of scaremongering here!!!

Noticed this on Vincent Browne as well. Saying we borrow €15 Billion or €350 Million a week to pay wages, Social Welfare, open hospitals, that type of stuff, is apparently scare mongering.

Seems to be the only answer SF and the SWP can provide, that or take back our fish and oil. They complain about €3/4 Billion a year cuts and taxes, but €15 Billion in one fell swoop is just dismissed as scare mongering.

If this is the wisdom of our youth today! Sounds a bit like Gilmore in his Workers Party days.

Bababa

K-9 wrote: »

Bababa wrote: »

A smell of scaremongering here!!!

Noticed this on Vincent Browne as well. Saying we borrow €15 Billion or €350 Million a week to pay wages, Social Welfare, open hospitals, that type of stuff, is apparently scare mongering.

Seems to be the only answer SF and the SWP can provide, that or take back our fish and oil. They complain about €3/4 Billion a year cuts and taxes, but €15 Billion in one fell swoop is just dismissed as scare mongering.

If this is the wisdom of our youth today! Sounds a bit like Gilmore in his Workers Party days.

Ah yeah. A state that is on EU welfare sounds good alright. U've obviously got a smell of crack off ur breath as well as the government. Must have been at the EU orgy.
This country will cope whatever the situation. And the Irish are extremely resilient. Time to give up being the EU 's simpleton child and become an adult!!!

charlemont

Judging by the huge lead for the No's here, The government will have to make a big effort to win a Yes. Ha, Ireland will be going to hell in a hand cart...

Voting Yes myself but I also agree with the people voting No for their own reasons as a No vote will screw everything up for the politicians, It will be like a spoiled child upset because he wasted his communion money or a dog biting the hand that feeds it, Ireland wouldn't last 3 months without the EU..